Operational Models: Readiness Now · 2007. 6. 27. · Dateline California l i q u i d h w a t e r...
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PBL transports and clouds 3-2007 Martin Köhler 1 Operational Models: Readiness Now Martin Köhler, ECMWF with Hua-Lu Pan, NCEP and Shouping Wang, NRL observational data: • EPIC • DYCOMS-II • GLAS cloud top • GCSS Pacific Cross-Section • ocean buoys • AOSN field campaign (COAMPS) • cloud vector winds • QuikSCAT winds • radiosonde winds • SST for coupled GCMs model evaluation: (dt=12h to 10yr) • the good – q mix ± 0.5 g/kg – θ l ± 0.5 K – LWP ± 50 g/m 2 – CC ± 10 % – ΔT inv ± 2 K • the bad – SST ± 2 K – u sfc + 1 m/s – inv. height - 200 to 500m • the unknown – w ± 50% – u 850 ± 2 m/s – drizzle ? – aerosols ?
Transcript of Operational Models: Readiness Now · 2007. 6. 27. · Dateline California l i q u i d h w a t e r...
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PBL transports and clouds 3-2007 Martin Köhler 1
Operational Models: Readiness NowMartin Köhler, ECMWF with Hua-Lu Pan, NCEP and Shouping Wang, NRL
observational data:• EPIC• DYCOMS-II• GLAS cloud top• GCSS Pacific Cross-Section• ocean buoys• AOSN field campaign (COAMPS)• cloud vector winds• QuikSCAT winds• radiosonde winds• SST for coupled GCMs
model evaluation: (dt=12h to 10yr)• the good
– qmix ± 0.5 g/kg– θl ± 0.5 K– LWP ± 50 g/m2
– CC ± 10 %– ΔTinv ± 2 K
• the bad– SST ± 2 K– usfc + 1 m/s– inv. height - 200 to 500m
• the unknown– w ± 50%– u850 ± 2 m/s– drizzle ?– aerosols ?
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PBL transports and clouds 3-2007 Martin Köhler 2
EPIC: Peruvian stratocumulus – model comparison
EPIC obsNCAR CAM2.0GFDL AM2.10ECMWF 23r4NCEP
Bretherton et al, BAMS 2004LWC [g/m3] qv [g/kg] θ [K]
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PBL transports and clouds 3-2007 Martin Köhler 3
Stratocumulus: EPIC column from 3D forecasts
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PBL transports and clouds 3-2007 Martin Köhler 4
Stevens et al 2007: DYCOMS vs ECMWF vs NCEP
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Shouping Wang, NRL: COAMPS Forecast Statistics (East Pacific)
COAMPS E_PAC Grid 2 (27km)Temperature June 2006
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PBL transports and clouds 3-2007 Martin Köhler 6
COAMPS E_PAC Grid 2 (27km)Wind Speed June 2006
Shouping Wang, NRL: COAMPS Forecast Statistics (East Pacific)
COAMPS E_PAC Grid 2 (27km)Relative Humidity June 2006
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PBL transports and clouds 3-2007 Martin Köhler 7
ECMWF vs GLAS observations: cloud top height
SC top too low!
GLAS cloud top heightGLAS strcu fraction
ECMWF cloud top heightECMWF strcu fraction
cloud top < 2km, cld > 80% Maike Ahlgrimm
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PBL transports and clouds 3-2007 Martin Köhler 8
Stevens et al 2007: DYCOMS vs ECMWF vs NCEP
ECMWFNCEP
Taylor diagram Divergence
θPBL
vPBL
uPBLqPBL
θ850
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PBL transports and clouds 3-2007 Martin Köhler 9
IMET buoy (Anton Beljaars & Bob Weller)T 2
m [°
C]
q 2m
[°C
]w
ind
[m/s
]
EPIC
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Field Bias RMS 3-km 9-km 3-km 9-km
Temp. 0.93 0.79 1.56 1.60Speed 1.48 0.41 2.60 1.80Dir. 9.10 35.0 47.0 48.0
AOSN field campaign in the vicinity ofMonterey Bay, California
Shouping Wang, NRL: COAMPS vs 2 buoys off Monterey
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PBL transports and clouds 3-2007 Martin Köhler 11
ERA-40
EquatorDateline
California
ARPEGE
EquatorDateline
California
NCAR CAM3
ECMWF
EquatorDateline
California
liquid water [g/kg]
0.30.150.080.040.030.020.010
GCSS Pacific Cross-Section Intercomparisonpr
essu
re [h
Pa]
100200300400500600700800900
1000
GFLD AM2 NCEP
JJA1998Joao Teixeira
pres
sure
[hPa
]
100200300400500600700800900
1000
HadGAM
EquatorDateline
California
C. Hannay
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PBL transports and clouds 3-2007 Martin Köhler 12
Cloud cover against ISCCP D2
CY32R3 - ISCCP
ISCCP D2
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PBL transports and clouds 3-2007 Martin Köhler 13
ECMWF buoy verification
model mean: 6.08 m/sbuoy mean: 6.12 m/sbias: -0.04 m/sRMSE: 1.12 m/scorrelation: 0.916
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PBL transports and clouds 3-2007 Martin Köhler 14
QuikSCAT winds: Bias and RMSE
0 bias
1.4 m/s
Bia
s [m
/s]
RM
SE [m
/s]
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PBL transports and clouds 3-2007 Martin Köhler 15
QuikSCAT winds
bias=0.06m/s
QuikSCAT=7.17m/s
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PBL transports and clouds 3-2007 Martin Köhler 16
GCSS Pacific Cross-section Project
5.0m /s
80°S80°S
70°S 70°S
60°S60°S
50°S 50°S
40°S40°S
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
30°N 30°N
40°N40°N
50°N 50°N
60°N60°N
70°N 70°N
80°N80°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E 100°E
100°E 120°E
120°E 140°E
140°E 160°E
160°E 180°
180° 160°W
160°W 140°W
140°W 120°W
120°W 100°W
100°W 80°W
80°W 60°W
60°W 40°W
40°W 20°W
20°W 0°
0°
2003070100 - 2003073118, EXPVER = 0001
Globe 2.76 N.Hem 2.5 Tropics 2.61 S.Hem 3.09 MIN 1.13 MAX 11.34
Vector-wind difference (m/s) of QuikSCAT vs ECMWF FGAT for all flows
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
4
5
6
Equator
sfc vector wind: QuikSCAT vs ECMWF FG
Claire Delsol.
V-Bias: METEOSAT-8, es6w: 20060205-20060208WVcloud1: N = 305328.
-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60Lat [deg]
1000
800
600
400
200
p [h
Pa]
-3.5 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5
WVcloud2: N = 345326.
-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60Lat [deg]
1000
800
600
400
200
p [h
Pa]
-3.5 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5
IR3: N = 404850.
-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60Lat [deg]
1000
800
600
400
200
p [h
Pa]
-3.5 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5
VIS2: N = 103229.
-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60Lat [deg]
1000
800
600
400
200
p [h
Pa]
-3.5 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5
VIS3: N = 286963.
-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60Lat [deg]
1000
800
600
400
200
p [h
Pa]
-3.5 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5
WVMV1: N = 58138.0
-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60Lat [deg]
1000
800
600
400
200
p [h
Pa]
-3.5 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5
WVMV2: N = 83594.0
-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60Lat [deg]
1000
800
600
400
200
p [h
Pa]
-3.5 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5
V-Bias: METEOSAT-8, es6w: 20060205-20060208WVcloud1: N = 305328.
-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60Lat [deg]
1000
800
600
400
200
p [h
Pa]
-3.5 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5
WVcloud2: N = 345326.
-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60Lat [deg]
1000
800
600
400
200
p [h
Pa]
-3.5 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5
IR3: N = 404850.
-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60Lat [deg]
1000
800
600
400
200
p [h
Pa]
-3.5 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5
VIS2: N = 103229.
-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60Lat [deg]
1000
800
600
400
200
p [h
Pa]
-3.5 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5
VIS3: N = 286963.
-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60Lat [deg]
1000
800
600
400
200
p [h
Pa]
-3.5 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5
WVMV1: N = 58138.0
-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60Lat [deg]
1000
800
600
400
200
p [h
Pa]
-3.5 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5
WVMV2: N = 83594.0
-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60Lat [deg]
1000
800
600
400
200
p [h
Pa]
-3.5 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5
V-Bias: METEOSAT-8 vs ECMWF FG
6.2 µm
W500hPa BIAS
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14points: CA to EQ
-0.05
0.00
0.05
0.10
BIA
S [
Pa/
s]
ECMWF 1d/5d forecastNCAR 1d/5d forecastUKMO 1d/5d forecast
ITCZ
W Bias at 500hPa U850hPa RMS error
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14points: EQ to CA
0
2
4
6
RM
SE
[m
/s]
ECMWF 1d/5d forecastNCAR 1d/5d forecastUKMO 1d/5d forecast
Hans Herbach
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PBL transports and clouds 3-2007 Martin Köhler 17
SE Pacific U-profilespr
essu
re [h
Pa]
pres
sure
[hPa
]
-6 -4 -2 0 2U wind [m/s]
-6 -4 -2 0 2U wind [m/s]
Analysis 48h Forecast
CY31R1
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PBL transports and clouds 3-2007 Martin Köhler 18
Cloud Vector Winds versus Radiosondes
Ascencion & St. Helen French Pacific Islands
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PBL transports and clouds 3-2007 Martin Köhler 19
DEMETER CGCM Surface Temperature Bias [K]
-6.0 -5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0
Surface Temperature [o
C]
Forecast start dates: 05/1987-1996, FC period: months 4-6 (ASO), ens: 0-8
Bias: EXP(ECMWF_assim) regarding ERA-40 reanalysis
-6.0 -5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0
Surface Temperature [o
C]
Forecast start dates: 05/1987-1995, FC period: months 4-6 (ASO), ens: 0-8
Bias: EXP(UKMO) regarding ERA-40 reanalysis
-6.0 -5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0
Surface Temperature [ oC]
Forecast start dates: 05/1987-1992, FC period: months 4-6 (ASO), ens: 0-8
Bias: EXP(MPI) regarding ERA-40 reanalysis
-6.0 -5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0
Surface Temperature [o
C]
Forecast start dates: 05/1987-1994, FC period: months 4-6 (ASO), ens: 0-8
Bias: EXP(CNRM) regarding ERA-40 reanalysis
-6.0 -5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0
Surface Temperature [o
C]
Forecast start dates: 05/1987-1994, FC period: months 4-6 (ASO), ens: 0-8
Bias: EXP(LODYC) regarding ERA-40 reanalysis
UKMO
MPI
MeteoFrance
LODYC
4-6 month forecasts Aug/Sep/Oct 1987-1996
9 ensemble memberscomparison to ERA-40
www.ecmwf.int/research/demeter
ECMWF (ERA40 cycle)
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PBL transports and clouds 3-2007 Martin Köhler 20
coupled ECMWF-ERA40Surface temperature – years 3-4 of integration
CY32R1: June 2007
CY31R1: Sept 2006
CY32R3: Fall 2007
Antje WeisheimerENSEMBLES
model cycle: impl. date
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PBL transports and clouds 3-2007 Martin Köhler 21
EC EARTH (ECMWF uncoupled) future 2XCO2 scenario
Δ CC
Standard model (cy31r1)
Δ CC
Enhanced top-entrainment model
Pier Siebesma, KNMI
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PBL transports and clouds 3-2007 Martin Köhler 22
Operational Models: Readiness NowMartin Köhler, ECMWF with Hua-Lu Pan, NCEP and Shouping Wang, NRL
observational data:• EPIC• DYCOMS-II• GLAS cloud top• GCSS Pacific Cross-section• ocean buoy• AOSN field campaign (COAMPS)• cloud vector winds• QuikSCAT winds• radiosonde winds• SST for coupled GCMs
model evaluation: (dt=12h to 10yr)• the good
– qmix ± 0.5 g/kg– θl ± 0.5 K– LWP ± 50 g/m2
– CC ± 10 %– ΔTinv ± 2 K
• the bad– SST ± 2 K– usfc + 1 m/s– inv. height - 200 to 500m
• the unknown– w ± 50%– u850 ± 2 m/s– drizzle ?– aerosols ?
