on the Chilean Photovoltaic Market · on the Chilean Photovoltaic Market State: ... 2015:...
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The 2 nd Wave on the Chilean Photovoltaic Market State: 08 June 2015
Transcript of on the Chilean Photovoltaic Market · on the Chilean Photovoltaic Market State: ... 2015:...
The 2nd Waveon the Chilean Photovoltaic MarketState: 08 June 2015
Business Opportunities for theSecond Wave of PV in Chile
Recommendations for Project Business Activities2015: development of 3-6 MW projects close to the load centers around Santiago2015: purchase of project rights for ready-to-build projects2016/17: development of >10 MW new utility scale projects in the Northern SICand SING
Energy Services for renewable energy integration Planning software for optimization of self-consumption Weather and electricity price forecast tools RES commercialization platforms Operation and Maintenance Services (O&M)
Currently attractive PV business segments in Chile
Electricity Market Essentials Chile
Coal49%
Gas37%
Diesel9%
RES5%
Hydro40,2%
Gas16,7%
Diesel16,0%
Coal14,7%
RES11,8%
Other0,7%
Chile:a small electricity market…Key facts on the Chilean electricity market
The northern interconnected grid SINGcovers the sparsely populated desert areas.
Demand is growing by 3.8% annually(average 2011-2013).
Predominantly a thermal power plant park.
2017: INTERCONNECTION SIC/SING!
The central interconnected grid SICcovers the rather densely populatedareas.
Electricity demand is growing by 5.3%annually (average 2011-2013).
SING(SistemaInterconectadodel NorteGrande)
3.9 GW
SIC(SistemaInterconectadoCentral)
14.9 GW
Source: Büro F, based on CNE March 2015
…with high electricity prices…
Marginal costs in USD/MWh (≙spot market prices)
Source: Systep, based on CDEC SING, CDEC SIC, CNE
146,0
48,5
050
100150200250300350
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 12007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
SICMarginal Costs(US$/MWh)SINGMarginal Costs(US$/MWh)
92,90
020406080
100120140160
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 12007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
SICAvg. Contract Price(US$/MWh)SINGAvg. Contract Prices(US$/MWh)
Average Contract Prices in USD/MWh (“Precio Medio de Mercado”)
SIC: Seasonal variations due to 40% hydro
…and abundant solar potential
Solar potential Chile
Load factor of PV plantsIrradiation
Global horizontal irradiation (kWh/m²/day)
• North of Santiago, solarirradiation is>2000kWh/m²/year
Energy yield is between1,5 – 2,5 kWh/kWp.
Load factor of PV plantsnorth of Santiago >20%(GER: 10%).
Source: GIZ Chile / Ministerio de Energía
Discussion focuses more and more on theintegration of the fluctuant renewablesPress articles 2015
Project Business
PV project business in Chile is booming,some 520 MW are already installed
Installed renewable energy capacities
XXX
Under ConstructionIn Operation/Test Run
Source: CNE, March 2015: “Capacidad instalada de generación”
SolarPV
85%
Wind7%
CSP5%
SmallHydro3%
2.1 GW
Wind42%
Solar PV26%
Biomass17%
SmallHydro14%
Biogas2%
2.0 GW
Source: CNE, March 2015: “Proyectos de generacióny transmisión en construcción SIC – SING”
Government tenders and grid expansionsimprove the PV market conditions
Government carries out tendersfor the supply of distribution gridoperators for small-scaleelectricity customers (residentialand small commercial)
2015: 1,000 GWh/a tendered,supply for 20 years from 2017 on
2015/16: 12,500 GWh/atendered, supply for 20 yearsfrom 2021 on
2017: 3,000 GWh/a tendered,supply for 20 years from 2022 on
2018: 8,000 GWh/a tendered,supply for 20 years from 2023 on
Tenders
Some 45 high voltage gridexpansion projects are under way
Most prominent, the SING and theSIC will be interconnected in 2017
Further expansions include thestrengthening of the grid in thenorthern SIC, in order to securethe transmission to the loadcenters around Santiago
Details on the grid expansionplans were published in the 2015-2018 grid expansion plan by theChilean government.
Grid expansion
Tenders open new market potentialfor utility scale projects
New tender process, now carried out by government bodies (CNE) 20 years contracts with distribution grid operators Division into various power bands for RES participation
Four tenders planned between 2015-2018, two in 2015/16:
Tenders for the supply of regulated electricity customers
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
1.000GWh PPA with distribution grid operator (20 yrs.)
12.500 GWh PPA with distr. (20 yrs.)
3.000 GWh PPA (20 yrs.)
8.000 GWh PPA
2023
Source: Büro F, based on CNE 2015
1st wave of PV projects in the III. Region,2nd wave around interconnection SIC/SINGProjects in operation or under construction per region
0100200300400500600700800
XV. Region I. Region II. Region II. Region III. Region IV. Region V. Region MetropolitanRegion
SING SIC
in operation under construction
1st Wave PV2nd Wave PV Load Center
SING SIC
Source: Büro F, based on CNE March 2015, Systep April 2015.Map: GIZ Chile
(interconnection 2017)
NORTH SOUTH
0 MW50 MW
100 MW150 MW200 MW250 MW300 MW350 MW
Under Construction In Operation
Project developers from the US andSouthern Europe lead the packProjects per EPC Company
Source: Büro F, based on CNE March 2015, Systep, April 2015
2nd wave for utility scale projectsalready in sight
PV project business in Chile is booming, some 520 MW are already installed.
Government tenders and grid expansions improve the PV market conditions.
1st wave of PV projects in the III. Region, 2nd wave around interconnectionSIC/SING.
Project developers from the US and Southern Europe lead the pack.
Conclusion Project Business
Self-Consumption Projects
118 118112
96100 100
89
100 10093
8795 96
50 USD
75 USD
100 USD
125 USD
150 USD
XV.Region
I.Region
II.Region
III.Region
IV.Region
V.Region
MetropolitanRegion
VI.Region
VII.Region
VIII.Region
IX.Region
XIV.Region
X.Region
222 222
199179
198 200
172
195
229246 240 237 229
150 USD
175 USD
200 USD
225 USD
250 USD
275 USD
300 USD
325 USD
350 USD
XV.Region
I.Region
II.Region
III.Region
IV.Region
V.Region
MetropolitanRegion
VI.Region
VII.Region
VIII.Region
IX.Region
XIV.Region
X.Region
The economic potentialfor self-consumption projects is high
Residential end customer electricity prices (BT-1) per region (USD/MWh incl. VAT)
Source: Büro F, based on GIZ Chile
Small commercial end customer prices (AT) per region (USD/MWh excl. VAT)
The new net-metering law tapsthe potential for self-consumption projects
In 2014, Chile introduced a net-metering law for renewable energy plants<100kW
The new law applies to electricity produced from renewable energy sources,including photovoltaics small wind power small hydropower efficient cogeneration (efficiency factor ≥75%)
For residential customers, the plant owner gets approx. 50% of his electricityprice for a fed-in kWh.
Commercial customers receive credits at approx. 100% of their electricity price.
The Chilean „Net-Metering“ law at a glance
Net-metering gives a regulatory framework forthe connection of small-scale PVApplication process for plants <100 kW under Net-Billing (simplified)
Appliance forgrid
connection
customer->
distributiongrid operator
Answer(20 days)
distributiongrid operator
->customer
Installation ofthe plant
customer
Announcementof
commissioning
customer->
electricity gridsupervisor SEC
Announcementof grid-
connection
customer->
distributiongrid operator
Gridconnection
contract(5 days)
customer&
distributiongrid operator
Inspection ofgrid
connection(20 days)
distributiongrid operator
Commissioningof the plant
customer
Before the project Project implementation(6 months for installation and connecting after approval through distribution grid operator)
Distributiongrid operatoris demandingadjustments
(Strengtheningof grid and/or
lowering ofplant capacity)
Customerassigns work
ondistributiongrid and/or
reduces plantcapacity
Source: Büro F based on Ministerio de Energía, GIZ Chile
Self-consumption market is up and coming
The economic potential for self-consumption projects is high.
Net-metering gives a regulatory framework for the connection of small-scale PV.
Highest potential is seen for ESCOs, leasing offers and other new business.
Conclusion Self-Consumption Segment
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We enable your entry into the Chilean market….
…and find your customers, projects and local partners!
We are looking forward to working with you!
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