European Solar Photovoltaic Market: Investment Analysis Solar Photovoltaic Market.pdf · European...

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MEDICAL DEVICES PHARMACEUTICALS CHEMICALS FOOD & BEVERAGE ELECTRONICS European Solar Photovoltaic Market: Investment Analysis VPG Publications, Consulting, Clients www.VPGcorp.com VPG Market Research Reports www.VPGMarketResearch.com VPG Partner Reports www.Research-Store.com/VPG VENTURE PLANNING GROUP 545 Eighth Avenue, Suite 401 New York, NY 10018 Phone + 1 212 564 2838 Fax + 1 212 564 8133 [email protected]

Transcript of European Solar Photovoltaic Market: Investment Analysis Solar Photovoltaic Market.pdf · European...

MEDICAL DEVICES PHARMACEUTICALS CHEMICALS FOOD & BEVERAGE ELECTRONICS

European Solar Photovoltaic Market: Investment Analysis

VPG Publications, Consulting, Clients www.VPGcorp.com

VPG Market Research Reports www.VPGMarketResearch.com

VPG Partner Reports www.Research-Store.com/VPG

VENTURE PLANNING GROUP 545 Eighth Avenue, Suite 401 New York, NY 10018 Phone + 1 212 564 2838 Fax + 1 212 564 8133 [email protected]

European Solar Photovoltaic Market:

Investment Analysis

Engineering a Brighter and Greener Future through Technology and Innovation

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Table of Contents

Market Engineering Methodology 12

Market Scope and Segmentation 13

Market Overview 14

Market Drivers 15

Market Restraints 16

Ranking of Major Participants 17

Major Findings 18-19

Solar Power Industry Hot Spot Segment Assessment 20

Conclusions 21

Introduction 23 Overview of Solar Technologies 24

Technology Trends 25-30

Key Solar Technologies 31

Solar Power Industry Value Chain: Polysilicon-based Cells and Modules 31

Application Trends 33

Executive Summary Slides 11 to 21

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Solar Power Technology Slides 22 to 33

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Key Drivers Summary 51

Market Drivers Analysis 52-55

Key Restraints Summary 56

Market Restraints Analysis Drivers and Restraints: Conclusions

57-60

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Solar Power Global Market Structure 35

State of the Global Market 36-37

Cumulative Installed Capacity Forecast by Region 38-40

Revenue Forecast by Region Market Share Analysis

41-43

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Top Five Industry Challenges Major Challenges Analysis

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47-49

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Table of Contents (continued)

Global Solar Photovoltaic Market Slides 34 to 44

Solar Photovoltaic: Industry Challenges Slides 45 to 49

European Solar PV Market: Drivers and Restraints Slides 50 to 61

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Market Structure 63 Cumulative Installed Capacity Forecast by Technology 64-65 Price Analysis 66-69 Market Share Analysis 70

Hot Spot Segment Assessment: Two-step Methodology 72-73

Hot Spot Segment Assessment: Polysilicon 74-75

Hot Spot Segment Assessment: Ingot/Wafer 76-77

Hot Spot Segment Assessment: Cell 78-79

Hot Spot Segment Assessment: Module 80-81

Hot Spot Segment Assessment: Other Components 82-83

Hot Spot Segment Assessment: Summary 84-85

Certification 86

Legal Disclaimer 87

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The European Solar PV Market Through a Microscope Slides 62 to 70

Investment Attractiveness of the Solar PV Value Chain Slides 71 to 87

Table of Contents (continued)

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Appendix Slides 88 to 92

The Frost & Sullivan Story Slides 93 to 97

Table of Contents (continued)

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Solar Photovoltaic Market: Market Snapshot of the PV Segment (Global), 2010 18

Solar Photovoltaic Market: PV System by Application (Global), 2010 33

Solar Photovoltaic Market: PV System Size by Application (Global), 2010 33

Solar Photovoltaic Market: PV Cumulative Installed Capacity Forecast by Region (Global), 2007-2017 38

Solar Photovoltaic Market: PV Revenue Forecast by Region (Global), 2007-2017 41

Solar Photovoltaic Market: Market Share of Major PV Solar Manufacturers Based on MW Shipped (Global), 2010 44

Solar Photovoltaic Market: Impact of Top Five Industry Challenges (Europe), 2011-2017 46

Solar Photovoltaic Market: Percent of PV Cumulative Installed Capacity by Technology (Europe), 2007-2017 64

Solar Photovoltaic Market: Average Module Cost by Technology (Global), 2010 66

Solar Photovoltaic Market: Percent of Installation Cost by Component (Europe), 2010 69

Solar Photovoltaic Market: Market Share of Major PV Solar Manufacturers Based on MW Shipped (Europe), 2010 70

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List of Figures

Slide Numbers

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Solar Photovoltaic Market: PV Market Forecast (North America), 2007-2017 89

Solar Photovoltaic Market: PV Market Forecast (Europe), 2007-2017 90

Solar Photovoltaic Market: PV Market Forecast (Asia Pacific), 2007-2017 91

Solar Photovoltaic Market: PV Market Forecast (Rest of World), 2007-2017 92

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List of Figures (continued)

Slide Numbers

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Solar Photovoltaic Market: Market Forecast (Global), 2010 and 2017 14

Solar Photovoltaic Market: Top Market Participants in the PV Segment by Region (Global), 2010 17

Solar Photovoltaic Market: Market Analysis by Region in the PV Segment (Global), 2010 19

Solar Photovoltaic Market: Key Location Factors for Selected Solar Module Materials (Europe), 2010 20

Solar Photovoltaic Market: Solar Power Technologies Classification (Global), 2010 24

Solar Photovoltaic Market: Applications of Solar Power based on Installed Capacity (Global), 2010 31

Solar Photovoltaic Market: Solar Technology Penetration by Installed Capacity (Global), 2010 31

Solar Photovoltaic Market: Solar PV Industry Value Chain (Global), 2010 32

Solar Photovoltaic Market: Structure (Global), 2010 35

Solar Photovoltaic Market: PV Cumulative Installed Capacity Forecast by Region (Global), 2007-2017 39

Solar Photovoltaic Market: Percent of PV Cumulative Installed Capacity Forecast by Region (Global), 2010 40

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List of Charts

Slide Numbers

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Solar Photovoltaic Market: Percent of PV Cumulative Installed Capacity Forecast by Region (Global), 2017 40

Solar Photovoltaic Market: PV Revenue Forecast by Region (Global), 2007-2017 42

Solar Photovoltaic Market: Percent of PV Revenue Forecast by Region (Global), 2010 43

Solar Photovoltaic Market: Percent of PV Revenue Forecast by Region (Global), 2017 43

Solar Photovoltaic Market: Market Share of Major PV Solar Manufacturers Based on MW Shipped (Global), 2010 44

Solar Photovoltaic Market: Market Drivers (Europe), 2011-2017 51

Solar Photovoltaic Market: Market Restraints (Europe), 2011-2017 56

Solar Photovoltaic Market: Percent of PV Cumulative Installed Capacity by Technology (Europe), 2007-2017 65

Solar Photovoltaic Market: Average PV Module Price Forecast (Europe), 2007-2017 67

Solar Photovoltaic Market: Market Share of Major PV Solar Manufacturers Based on MW Shipped (Europe), 2010 70

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List of Charts (continued)

Slide Numbers

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Solar Photovoltaic Market: Polysilicon Segment Scorecard (Europe), 2010 74

Solar Photovoltaic Market: Key Location Factors for Polysilicon Manufacturers for Investment attractiveness (Europe), 2010 75

Solar Photovoltaic Market: Ingot/Wafer Industry Scorecard (Europe), 2010 76

Solar Photovoltaic Market: Key Location Factors for Ingot/Wafer Manufacturers for Investment Attractiveness (Europe), 2010 77

Solar Photovoltaic Market: Cell Industry Scorecard (Europe), 2010 78

Solar Photovoltaic Market: Key Location Factors for Cell Manufacturers for Investment Attractiveness (Europe), 2010 79

Solar Photovoltaic Market: Module Industry Scorecard (Europe), 2010 80

Solar Photovoltaic Market: Key Location Factors for Module Manufacturers for Investment Attractiveness (Europe), 2010 81

Solar Photovoltaic Market: Key Location Factors for Selected Solar Module Materials for Investment Attractiveness (Europe), 2010 84

Solar Photovoltaic Market: Future Development of Installed and Manufacturing Solar Capacity (Global), 2010 85

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Slide Numbers

List of Charts (continued)

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Frost & Sullivan’s market research methodology was designed to provide essential research to our clients to help them capitalize on market opportunities and gain a competitive advantage in the marketplace. Our team of analysts uses primary research as the main tool and, combined with secondary resources, create “bottom-up” market sizes and forecasts. Through this approach, each final measurement represents the product of all the figures from a micro to macro level.

Primary Research:

For the purpose of this study, Frost & Sullivan has conducted telephone interviews with utilities, project developers and original equipment manufacturers (OEM). The interviews target chief executive officers, chief technical officers, business directors, marketing directors, and strategy leaders from various companies and institutions across the renewable energy market.

Secondary Research:

Frost & Sullivan conducted an extensive review of all the existing information available. Some of the sources used are:

• Frost & Sullivan past publications and internal databases

• Trade press and associations

Forecast Methodology

Based on primary interviews, factors that are expected to drive and restrain the market in terms of revenue are identified. These market drivers and market restraints are analyzed over the short term (1 to 2 years), medium term (3 to 4 years), and long term (5 to 6 years). Forecasts are estimated by assigning weights to the drivers and restraints according to the time frame. The time frame analysis directly affects market forecasts, development of market strategies, and investment timing by industry participants. Finally, the forecasts are matched to the leading economic indicators and drivers for the industry.

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Market Engineering Methodology

Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.

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Segmentation In this research service, the solar photovoltaic market is segmented based on the solar industry value chain. A detailed analysis of the hot spots from an investment perspective and the current price trends is provided for the following:

o Polysilicon o Ingot/ Wafer o Cell o Module o Other components

Scope

• This research service analyzes the Global Solar Photovoltaic Market with special focus on Europe.

• The base year for this study is 2010 and the forecast period is 2011-2017. • This research service analyzes the market share among solar panel manufacturers. • This study only considers solar power technologies that are used for power generation

and excludes other applications.

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Market Scope and Segmentation

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Overview

Over the last 50 years, PV systems have evolved into mature, sustainable, and adaptive technology. PV technology is improving as the efficiency of solar cells increases and the modules are designed with a more aesthetically pleasing appearance. Solar power is gaining acceptance and is becoming an increasingly cost-effective and clean alternative to conventional energy sources. Ongoing support and commitment from federal governments and various state governments through renewable energy policies and programs is likely to sustain market growth. Solar energy is the second-fastest growing renewable energy market, after wind power.

Market Forecast

• The global Solar Photovoltaic Market had x,xxx MW of total installed CSP capacity and xx,xxx MW of PV capacity by the end of 2010.

• CSP total installed capacity is projected to reach xx,xxx MW by the end of 2017. Total installed PV capacity is expected to reach xx,xxx MW by 2017.

Solar Photovoltaic Market: Market Forecast (Global), 2010 and 2017

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x,xxx.x xx,xxx.x xx,xxx.x

x,xx,xxx.x

x.x

xx,xxx.x

x,xx,xxx.x

x,xx,xxx.x

x,xxx.x

x,xx,xxx.x

2010 2017

Cu

mu

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ap

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Year

CSP

PV

Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2010.

Market Overview

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The most significant boost to the development of high-cost solar PV systems comes from government incentives and mandates. In the U.S., the renewable portfolio standards (RPSs) and the economic stimulus package provided by the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act in 2009 are expected to be the major drivers for the Solar Photovoltaic Market during the forecast period. During the past few years, European governments have passed several renewable energy laws to support the growing renewable energy industry, both financially and technologically. These incentives include feed-in tariffs for solar PV-generated power in countries such as Germany, Spain, Italy, France, Switzerland, and Portugal.

A grid-connected solar power plant can replace a conventional power plant for peaking power. When backed by thermal storage facilities and combustible fuel, a solar power plant can provide electricity that can be dispatched when required, enabling it to be used for base, shoulder, and peak loads.

1. Government Incentives and Mandates Accelerate Market Growth

2. Variety of Applications Makes Solar Energy Competitive with Conventional Source of Electricity Generation

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Market Drivers