Objectives

• Learn– Understand the strategic planning process– The pilot’s perspective of weather

• Understand– Controlling the National Air Space– Direct Weather Support of FAA Centers

• Improve– Supporting our customers– Science - improving the bottom line

Thanks

• Ross Dickman• John Guiney• Bill Scura• Staff of ERH and WFO NYC and CWSU ZNY

Logistics

• Tours – 4:30 PM CWSU TourSee Brandon at Break

• Dinner – Long Island Grill ~ 6:45 PM200 Portion RoadLake Ronkonkoma, NY 11779

Sign up by 1 PM (head count)

AviationWeather

• Brandon Smith• Jeff Tongue

a “quick” tour of our past and future

Some Background on Some Background on me…me…

Operational Meteorologist for over 18 Operational Meteorologist for over 18 years.years.15 Years as US Navy Meteorologist 15 Years as US Navy Meteorologist (Active and Reserve)(Active and Reserve)Civilian Ship RouterCivilian Ship RouterNational Weather Service National Weather Service Meteorologist for 4 yearsMeteorologist for 4 years– WFO Salt Lake CityWFO Salt Lake City– WFO NYC WFO NYC

Some Background on Some Background on me…me…

Operational Meteorologist for over 25 Operational Meteorologist for over 25 years.years.24 Years as USAF Meteorologist24 Years as USAF MeteorologistNational Weather Service National Weather Service Meteorologist for 17 yearsMeteorologist for 17 years– Space Shuttle Meteorologist – NASA JSCSpace Shuttle Meteorologist – NASA JSC– NYC Science and Operations OfficerNYC Science and Operations Officer

In the beginning….

• On the evening of December 16, there was an ominous black line of clouds on the horizon.

• This front advanced quickly.• The rain abated by morning, leaving puddles

of ice between the sand dunes. • The wind, however, continued to blow in from

the ocean, gusting to 30 miles an hour and creating a chill of 4 degrees.

December 17, 1903

• About 10:35, Orville loosed the restraining wire, and the machine began to move down the rail into a bitter wind that was now gusting to 27 miles per hour. Wilbur ran along side. Two thirds of the way down the rail, the Flyer lifted into the air and the crew cheered.

World War I• Bergen School of Meteorology

– Jacob Bjerknes– Halvor Solberg– Tor Bergeron– Carl-Gustaf Rossby– Sverre Petterssen– Erik Palmén– Erik Björkdal– Svein Rosseland– Carl Ludvig Godske– Johan Sandström

Air Mail

• United States Post Office Department on May 15, 1918, with the inauguration of the Washington-Philadelphia-New York route

Early Aviation Support…Early Aviation Support…

1914 – the US Weather Bureau 1914 – the US Weather Bureau establishes its Aerological Program to establishes its Aerological Program to provide general aviation products.provide general aviation products.

1918 – first aviation bulletins for 1918 – first aviation bulletins for military and postal flights. TAFs are military and postal flights. TAFs are written.written.

1918 – first route forecast (TWEB?) 1918 – first route forecast (TWEB?) for a mail route from NYC to DC. for a mail route from NYC to DC.

Early Aviation Support…Early Aviation Support…1926 - Air Commerce Act…which the 1926 - Air Commerce Act…which the Weather Bureau to "furnish weather Weather Bureau to "furnish weather reports, forecasts, warnings ... to reports, forecasts, warnings ... to promote the safety and efficiency of air promote the safety and efficiency of air navigation in the United States." navigation in the United States."

1931- Daily 5 a.m. aircraft observations 1931- Daily 5 a.m. aircraft observations were taken at Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, were taken at Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, and Omaha at altitudes up to 16,000 ft.and Omaha at altitudes up to 16,000 ft.

1933 – Weather Balloons replace aircraft. 1933 – Weather Balloons replace aircraft.

Early Aviation Support…Early Aviation Support…1926 - Air Commerce Act…which the 1926 - Air Commerce Act…which the Weather Bureau to "furnish weather Weather Bureau to "furnish weather reports, forecasts, warnings ... to reports, forecasts, warnings ... to promote the safety and efficiency of air promote the safety and efficiency of air navigation in the United States." navigation in the United States."

1931- Daily 5 a.m. aircraft observations 1931- Daily 5 a.m. aircraft observations were taken at Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, were taken at Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, and Omaha at altitudes up to 16,000 ft.and Omaha at altitudes up to 16,000 ft.

1933 – Weather Balloons replace aircraft. 1933 – Weather Balloons replace aircraft.

Early Aviation Support…Early Aviation Support…1926 - Air Commerce Act…which the 1926 - Air Commerce Act…which the Weather Bureau to "furnish weather Weather Bureau to "furnish weather reports, forecasts, warnings ... to reports, forecasts, warnings ... to promote the safety and efficiency of air promote the safety and efficiency of air navigation in the United States." navigation in the United States."

1931- Daily 5 a.m. aircraft observations 1931- Daily 5 a.m. aircraft observations were taken at Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, were taken at Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, and Omaha at altitudes up to 16,000 ft.and Omaha at altitudes up to 16,000 ft.

1933 – Weather Balloons replace aircraft. 1933 – Weather Balloons replace aircraft.

Early Aviation Support…Early Aviation Support…

1942 - The US Navy gives the Weather 1942 - The US Navy gives the Weather Bureau 25 aircraft radars to be modified Bureau 25 aircraft radars to be modified for ground meteorological use, marking for ground meteorological use, marking the start of a weather radar system in the start of a weather radar system in the U.S.the U.S.1942 - The Navy begins producing 1942 - The Navy begins producing aviation-specific forecasts…which are aviation-specific forecasts…which are vital to the success of key WWII battles.vital to the success of key WWII battles.1944 – The International Civil Aviation 1944 – The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) is developed.Organization (ICAO) is developed.

Early Aviation Support…Early Aviation Support…

1942 - The US Navy gives the Weather 1942 - The US Navy gives the Weather Bureau 25 aircraft radars to be modified Bureau 25 aircraft radars to be modified for ground meteorological use, marking for ground meteorological use, marking the start of a weather radar system in the start of a weather radar system in the U.S.the U.S.1942 - The Navy begins producing 1942 - The Navy begins producing aviation-specific forecasts…which are aviation-specific forecasts…which are vital to the success of key WWII battles.vital to the success of key WWII battles.1944 – The International Civil Aviation 1944 – The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) is developed.Organization (ICAO) is developed.

Early Aviation Support…Early Aviation Support…

1942 - The US Navy gives the Weather 1942 - The US Navy gives the Weather Bureau 25 aircraft radars to be modified Bureau 25 aircraft radars to be modified for ground meteorological use, marking for ground meteorological use, marking the start of a weather radar system in the start of a weather radar system in the U.S.the U.S.1942 - The Navy begins producing 1942 - The Navy begins producing aviation-specific forecasts…which are aviation-specific forecasts…which are vital to the success of key WWII battles.vital to the success of key WWII battles.1944 – The International Civil Aviation 1944 – The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) is developed.Organization (ICAO) is developed.

Early Aviation Support…Early Aviation Support…

1968 – Meteorological Aviation Report 1968 – Meteorological Aviation Report (METAR) format was introduced (METAR) format was introduced internationally (although the US used internationally (although the US used the SAO code until 1996)the SAO code until 1996)

1977 - New Hope, GA airline accident 1977 - New Hope, GA airline accident spurred the establishment of Center spurred the establishment of Center Weather Service Units to provide more Weather Service Units to provide more timely weather support to controllers. timely weather support to controllers.

Early Aviation Support…Early Aviation Support…

1968 – Meteorological Aviation Report 1968 – Meteorological Aviation Report (METAR) format was introduced (METAR) format was introduced internationally (although the US used internationally (although the US used the SAO code until 1996)the SAO code until 1996)

1977 - New Hope, GA airline accident 1977 - New Hope, GA airline accident spurred the establishment of Center spurred the establishment of Center Weather Service Units to provide more Weather Service Units to provide more timely weather support to controllers. timely weather support to controllers.

CWSU’s formed as a results of…

• April 4, 1977• Southern Airlines – New Hope, GA• Probable Cause: Captain's decision to penetrate

rather than avoid an area of severe weather, the failure to obtain all the available weather information despite having knowledge of the severity of the storm system, and the reliance upon airborne weather radar for penetration rather than avoidance of the storm system.

Today …Today …

$6 BILLION$6 BILLION– What is lost annually in economic What is lost annually in economic

efficiencies as a result of air traffic efficiencies as a result of air traffic delaysdelays

70%70%– The percentage of air traffic delays The percentage of air traffic delays

attributed to weatherattributed to weather

The National Weather The National Weather ServiceService

Provides all facets of aviation Provides all facets of aviation weather in the U.S. / International weather in the U.S. / International WatersWaters

Aviation Weather CenterAviation Weather Center– Kansas CityKansas City

122 Weather Forecast Offices122 Weather Forecast Offices

21 Center Weather Service Units21 Center Weather Service Units

AWCAWC

aviationweather.govaviationweather.gov– AIRMETSAIRMETS

SIGMETSSIGMETS

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Today

The Future??

• New Graphical Communication ??– Deterministic– Stochastic

• New Terminal Forecast ??

Terminal Forecast

Future TAFKJFK 151221Z 1512/1618 13010KT 3SM -RA BR SCT001 OVC003 TEMPO 1512/1514 1 1/2SM +RA BR BKN001 FM151400 13012KT 1SM RA BR VCTS OVC004CB WS020/18060KT FM151600 18016G24KT 4SM -RA BR OVC004 WS020/18060KT FM152000 19021G29KT 4SM -RA BR OVC007 WS020/19055KT FM160100 19014G23KT 2SM +RA BR OVC009CB WS020/19060KT TEMPO 1601/1605 VRB25G40KT OVC005CB FM160500 19014KT 4SM -RA BR BKN015 OVC060 FM160800 23013KT P6SM SCT025 BKN070 FM161300 27020G30KT P6SM BKN120=