November 2, 2005 CISM and Space Weather Introduction to CISM and Space Weather Dr. Ramon E. Lopez...

November 2, 2005 CISM and Space Weather

Introduction to CISM and Space Weather

Dr. Ramon E. Lopez

Physics and Space Sciences

Florida Tech


The Sun has a magnetic field


The Magnetosphere• When the solar wind

encounters a magnetized body, it is slowed and deflected

• The resulting cavity in the solar wind controlled by the body’s magnetic field is called a magnetosphere


Simulations show how this happens

• The Earth’s undisturbed field is basically a dipole

• When the solar wind flows in from the left, the Earth’s field is deformed


The Magnetosphere


The Sun is can generate activity even at solar minimum.

We saw this in late October of 2003 - the Halloween Storms


Killer Electrons

• Storms accelerate some particles to MeV energies

• Spacecraft can be lost when there is a high, sustained flux of energetic electrons, such as during the May 1998 storm


Power grid effects

• Power transmission systems are vulnerable to induction driven currents


Blackout!• The March 1989

Magnetic Storm caused millions of dollars of damages as power systems failed


Some Effects of the Halloween storms

2 damaged Japanese satellites (one lost)

Many other satellite anomalies

Small blackout in Sweden Temporary loss of Mars

Odyssey radiation instrument - possible lethal dose for astronauts on the way to (or on) Mars

Aurora in FL, GA, TX


The first space weather event - The great storm of August 1859

• September 1, 1859, Richard Carrington was observing sunspots when “….two patches of intensely bright and white light broke out...”

• Magnetic perturbations and other effects of this great storm were recorded and published

• 2 years later Balfour Stewart wrote - “... it is not impossible to suppose that in this case our luminary was taken in the act.”


Impact of the August 1859 storm

Aurora were reported at New Orleans, Galveston, Key West, and Havana

Telegraph operations in Europe and North America were severely impacted

In some cases, telegraphs worked better using GIC currents alone, without batteries

Elias Loomis collected and published reports of the storm in the Amer. J. of Sci.


MHD Magnetosphere Simulation The Lyon-Fedder-Mobary (LFM) code is a fully

3-D MagnetoHydroDynamic (MHD) simulation run with real solar wind input

Magnetosphere modeled via ideal MHD equations in a large (5x distance to Moon) simulation grid shaped like a cylinder

To study the results me must employ visualization techniques, especially movies of the time evolution of the magnetosphere


Predicting Space Weather• We are at the point where physics-based models can

reproduce actual events• In the next decade we will be able to model the entire

system, from the surface of the Sun to the upper atmosphere of the Earth

• This is the goal of the Center for Integrated Space weather Modeling - CISM - a Science and Technology Center funded by the National Science Foundation

• Predictive models are a major goal of the National Space Weather Program


University of University of CaliforniaCalifornia

Stanford Stanford UniversityUniversity

SAICSAIC

University of Colorado University of Colorado NCAR/HAO NCAR/HAO

Florida Institute Florida Institute of Technologyof TechnologyRice UniversityRice University

Alabama A&M Alabama A&M UniversityUniversity

NCSANCSA

Boston Boston UniversityUniversity

Dartmouth Dartmouth CollegeCollege

CISM Institutions

CCMC CCMC NRLNRLNOAA/SECNOAA/SEC

Lockheed-MartinLockheed-Martin


Coronal and Solar wind models are already coupled


This will drive computer models of the magnetosphere


InnerInnerMagnetosphereMagnetosphere

Solar CoronaSolar Corona Linker and Mikic

Solar WindSolar Wind Odstrcil and

PizzoIonosphereIonosphereTIMED GCM

Active RegionsActive Regions

SEPSEP

Ring CurrentRing Current

Radiation BeltsRadiation Belts

Geocorona and Geocorona and ExosphereExosphere

PlasmaspherePlasmasphere

MI CouplingMI Coupling

MagnetosphereMagnetosphereLyon, Fedder, and

Mobarry


External Libraries

Low Level Utilities

Fields and Grids Layer

Models:

Superstructure

Computational Framework: Constraints and Approaches

Functional Requirements:Efficient data transfer between codes, Data Translation (physics) and interpolation (grid) between codes, Controlled execution of asynchronously running codes.

Science Requirements:Couple existing codes with truly minimal code modification, Data sharing between codes with different physical models and grid structures.

RCMGlobal ITM

Hierarchical Structure - Codes become subroutines

Asynchronous Structure -Codes run independently, mediated by Couplers and controlled through data channels

Model

Model

Model

Coupler

Coupler


Sun

Earth

Mount Wilson Observatory Solar Magnetograms

Wang-Sheeley Model modified by Arge

Solar Wind Velocity

CISM Energetic Electron Models,dB/dt Model,and Ap model

Sun-to-Earth Modeling and Forecasts

http://solar.sec.noaa.gov/%7Enarge/phfld.html


National Space Weather Program Components


DoD Customers and Operations Civilian Customers and Operations

DoD SEC

Rapid Prototyping CentersVerification

Documentation

CCMCModel Access

ValidationMetrics

Model Flow

Space Weather Model Development

Communication

Targeted Space Weather Research

NSF/AF/ONR

Living With a Star

NASA

Multi-UniversityResearch Initiatives

AF/ONR

Core Space Science Research

Space Weather Research Community

Center for IntegratedSpace Weather Modeling

NSF


Atmospheric &

IonosphericCoupling

PrecipitationAnd Loss

SeedPopulation

Solar WindDrivers

SolarSource

Continuous views of sun in UV, x-rays, visible wavelengths (SOHO, NOAA/SXI, RHESSI, etc.)

Continuous data from ACE

Excellent data on plasma sheet sources of seed population (CLUSTER, GEOTAIL, POLAR, etc.)

Excellent data from SAMPEX, NOAA/POES, POLAR/PIXIE

Continuous coverage - SNOE and TIMED

SOHO

RHESSIACE CLUSTER

SAMPEX

TIMED

SNOE

POLAR

Studying the Solar-Terrestrial Chain


Rest of the day

• Discuss space weather effects and space policy

• Learn more about CISM code infrastructure and visualization tools (CISM-DX)

• Engage in interactive exercise with model products

• Discuss future capabilities

November 2, 2005 CISM and Space Weather Introduction to CISM and Space Weather Dr. Ramon E. Lopez...

Documents

Transcript of November 2, 2005 CISM and Space Weather Introduction to CISM and Space Weather Dr. Ramon E. Lopez...