November 2, 2005 CISM and Space Weather
Introduction to CISM and Space Weather
Dr. Ramon E. Lopez
Physics and Space Sciences
Florida Tech
November 2, 2005 CISM and Space Weather
The Sun has a magnetic field
November 2, 2005 CISM and Space Weather
The Magnetosphere• When the solar wind
encounters a magnetized body, it is slowed and deflected
• The resulting cavity in the solar wind controlled by the body’s magnetic field is called a magnetosphere
November 2, 2005 CISM and Space Weather
Simulations show how this happens
• The Earth’s undisturbed field is basically a dipole
• When the solar wind flows in from the left, the Earth’s field is deformed
November 2, 2005 CISM and Space Weather
The Magnetosphere
November 2, 2005 CISM and Space Weather
The Sun is can generate activity even at solar minimum.
We saw this in late October of 2003 - the Halloween Storms
November 2, 2005 CISM and Space Weather
November 2, 2005 CISM and Space Weather
Killer Electrons
• Storms accelerate some particles to MeV energies
• Spacecraft can be lost when there is a high, sustained flux of energetic electrons, such as during the May 1998 storm
November 2, 2005 CISM and Space Weather
November 2, 2005 CISM and Space Weather
Power grid effects
• Power transmission systems are vulnerable to induction driven currents
November 2, 2005 CISM and Space Weather
Blackout!• The March 1989
Magnetic Storm caused millions of dollars of damages as power systems failed
November 2, 2005 CISM and Space Weather
Some Effects of the Halloween storms
2 damaged Japanese satellites (one lost)
Many other satellite anomalies
Small blackout in Sweden Temporary loss of Mars
Odyssey radiation instrument - possible lethal dose for astronauts on the way to (or on) Mars
Aurora in FL, GA, TX
November 2, 2005 CISM and Space Weather
The first space weather event - The great storm of August 1859
• September 1, 1859, Richard Carrington was observing sunspots when “….two patches of intensely bright and white light broke out...”
• Magnetic perturbations and other effects of this great storm were recorded and published
• 2 years later Balfour Stewart wrote - “... it is not impossible to suppose that in this case our luminary was taken in the act.”
November 2, 2005 CISM and Space Weather
Impact of the August 1859 storm
Aurora were reported at New Orleans, Galveston, Key West, and Havana
Telegraph operations in Europe and North America were severely impacted
In some cases, telegraphs worked better using GIC currents alone, without batteries
Elias Loomis collected and published reports of the storm in the Amer. J. of Sci.
November 2, 2005 CISM and Space Weather
MHD Magnetosphere Simulation The Lyon-Fedder-Mobary (LFM) code is a fully
3-D MagnetoHydroDynamic (MHD) simulation run with real solar wind input
Magnetosphere modeled via ideal MHD equations in a large (5x distance to Moon) simulation grid shaped like a cylinder
To study the results me must employ visualization techniques, especially movies of the time evolution of the magnetosphere
November 2, 2005 CISM and Space Weather
November 2, 2005 CISM and Space Weather
Predicting Space Weather• We are at the point where physics-based models can
reproduce actual events• In the next decade we will be able to model the entire
system, from the surface of the Sun to the upper atmosphere of the Earth
• This is the goal of the Center for Integrated Space weather Modeling - CISM - a Science and Technology Center funded by the National Science Foundation
• Predictive models are a major goal of the National Space Weather Program
November 2, 2005 CISM and Space Weather
University of University of CaliforniaCalifornia
Stanford Stanford UniversityUniversity
SAICSAIC
University of Colorado University of Colorado NCAR/HAO NCAR/HAO
Florida Institute Florida Institute of Technologyof TechnologyRice UniversityRice University
Alabama A&M Alabama A&M UniversityUniversity
NCSANCSA
Boston Boston UniversityUniversity
Dartmouth Dartmouth CollegeCollege
CISM Institutions
CCMC CCMC NRLNRLNOAA/SECNOAA/SEC
Lockheed-MartinLockheed-Martin
November 2, 2005 CISM and Space Weather
November 2, 2005 CISM and Space Weather
Coronal and Solar wind models are already coupled
November 2, 2005 CISM and Space Weather
This will drive computer models of the magnetosphere
November 2, 2005 CISM and Space Weather
InnerInnerMagnetosphereMagnetosphere
Solar CoronaSolar Corona Linker and Mikic
Solar WindSolar Wind Odstrcil and
PizzoIonosphereIonosphereTIMED GCM
Active RegionsActive Regions
SEPSEP
Ring CurrentRing Current
Radiation BeltsRadiation Belts
Geocorona and Geocorona and ExosphereExosphere
PlasmaspherePlasmasphere
MI CouplingMI Coupling
MagnetosphereMagnetosphereLyon, Fedder, and
Mobarry
November 2, 2005 CISM and Space Weather
External Libraries
Low Level Utilities
Fields and Grids Layer
Models:
Superstructure
Computational Framework: Constraints and Approaches
Functional Requirements:Efficient data transfer between codes, Data Translation (physics) and interpolation (grid) between codes, Controlled execution of asynchronously running codes.
Science Requirements:Couple existing codes with truly minimal code modification, Data sharing between codes with different physical models and grid structures.
RCMGlobal ITM
Hierarchical Structure - Codes become subroutines
Asynchronous Structure -Codes run independently, mediated by Couplers and controlled through data channels
Model
Model
Model
Coupler
Coupler
November 2, 2005 CISM and Space Weather
Sun
Earth
Mount Wilson Observatory Solar Magnetograms
Wang-Sheeley Model modified by Arge
Solar Wind Velocity
CISM Energetic Electron Models,dB/dt Model,and Ap model
Sun-to-Earth Modeling and Forecasts
November 2, 2005 CISM and Space Weather
National Space Weather Program Components
November 2, 2005 CISM and Space Weather
DoD Customers and Operations Civilian Customers and Operations
DoD SEC
Rapid Prototyping CentersVerification
Documentation
CCMCModel Access
ValidationMetrics
Model Flow
Space Weather Model Development
Communication
Targeted Space Weather Research
NSF/AF/ONR
Living With a Star
NASA
Multi-UniversityResearch Initiatives
AF/ONR
Core Space Science Research
Space Weather Research Community
Center for IntegratedSpace Weather Modeling
NSF
November 2, 2005 CISM and Space Weather
Atmospheric &
IonosphericCoupling
PrecipitationAnd Loss
SeedPopulation
Solar WindDrivers
SolarSource
Continuous views of sun in UV, x-rays, visible wavelengths (SOHO, NOAA/SXI, RHESSI, etc.)
Continuous data from ACE
Excellent data on plasma sheet sources of seed population (CLUSTER, GEOTAIL, POLAR, etc.)
Excellent data from SAMPEX, NOAA/POES, POLAR/PIXIE
Continuous coverage - SNOE and TIMED
SOHO
RHESSIACE CLUSTER
SAMPEX
TIMED
SNOE
POLAR
Studying the Solar-Terrestrial Chain
November 2, 2005 CISM and Space Weather
Rest of the day
• Discuss space weather effects and space policy
• Learn more about CISM code infrastructure and visualization tools (CISM-DX)
• Engage in interactive exercise with model products
• Discuss future capabilities
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