Satellite Observations for Future

Space Weather Forescasting

Howard J. Singer, NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center

Space Weather WorkshopBoulder, COMay 2, 2008

Acknowledgments: Bonadonna, Donovan, Fuller-Rowell, Green, Hill, Kunches, Maus, Onsager, Viereck

Satellite Observations for Future Space Weather Forecasting 2

Presentation Outline: Introduction to space

weather observations NOAA satellite programs:

GOES, POES, NPOES, Solar Wind Monitoring

Collaborating with the Space Weather and Space Science community

The Future

GOES 8-12

GOES NOP

ACE

POES

STEREO

CORS - GPS

And More…

SOHO

Satellite Observations for Future Space Weather Forescasting

Satellite Observations for Future Space Weather Forecasting 3

Space Weather observations extend from the Sun to interplanetary space, to the magnetosphere and ionosphere/upper

atmosphere.

Space Weather observations support a growing and diverse user community:• DoD, NASA, FAA, Industry, Commercial Service Providers, International …

Space Weather observations are used:• to specify and forecast the environment• in models (drive, assimilate, and validate)• for research

Space Weather Observations

Satellite Observations for Future Space Weather Forecasting 4

NOAA POES

NOAA GOES

NASA ACE

ESA/NASA SOHO

L1•ACE (NASA)

–Solar wind speed, density, temperature and energetic particles–Vector Magnetic field

•SOHO (ESA/NASA)–Solar EUV Images–Solar Corona (CMEs)

•GOES (NOAA)–Energetic Particles–Magnetic Field–Solar X-ray Flux–Solar EUV Flux–Solar X-Ray Images

•POES (NOAA)–High Energy Particles–Total Energy Deposition–Solar UV Flux

•Ground Sites–Magnetometers (NOAA/USGS)–Thule Riometer and Neutron monitor (USAF)–SOON Sites (USAF)–RSTN (USAF)–Telescopes and Magnetographs–Ionosondes (AF, ISES, …)–GPS (CORS)

NASA STEREO(Ahead)

NASA STEREO(Behind)

•STEREO (NASA)–Solar Corona–Solar EUV Images–Solar wind –Vector Magnetic field

Monitor, Measure and Specify:

Data for Today’s Space Weather

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Energetic Particle Sensor (EPS) Monitors the energetic electron, proton, and alpha particle fluxes e: 0.6 to 4.0 MeV, p: 0.7 to 700 MeV, a: 4 to 3400 MeV

Magnetometer (MAG) Monitors the vector magnetic field 0.512 second samples, ~0.1 nT sensitivity, +/- 1000 nT

X-Ray Sensor (XRS) Monitors whole-Sun x-ray brightness in two bands 1 - 8 Angstroms and 0.5 - 4 Angstroms

Solar X-ray Imager (SXI) – first on GOES 12 One - minute cadence, full disk, 5 arc sec pixels, 0.6 – 6 nm, 512 x 512 pixel array

GOES: NOAA’s Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite

Space Environment Monitor (SEM) Instrumentation GOES 8-12

GOES 8 (Launch: 4/13/94, EOL orbit raising 5/5/04)

GOES 9 (Launch: 5/23/95, loaned to Japan, EOL 6/14/07) (Launch: 4/25/97, South America Coverage) GOES 11 (Launch: 5/13/00, Operational)

GOES 12 (Launch: 7/23/01, Operational)

GOES 10

SXI: A NOAA-USAF-NASA partnership

AF Funded

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Current Instrument Issues:

Energetic Particle Sensor (EPS)

GOES 12: Two proton channels not usable Using GOES 11 and GOES 10 All other particle sensors functioning on GOES 10, 11, and 12 Magnetometer (MAG)

Functioning on GOES 10, 11, and 12

X-Ray Sensor (XRS)

X-ray Positioner failed on GOES 11 and 12 Using GOES 10

Solar X-ray Imager (SXI) – first on GOES 12 No longer functioning

GOES: NOAA’s Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite

Space Environment Monitor (SEM) Instrumentation GOES 8-12

Current Spacecraft Status:

GOES 11 (west) and GOES 12 (east): operatonal

GOES 10 over South America: SWPC using XRS and

Protons Satellite inclination increasing

GOES 8-12

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GOES NOP:SEM Enhancement Summary

GOES 13 Launch May 24, 2006First of New Generation

Magnetometer (MAG) Two instruments operating

simultaneouslyEnergetic Particle Sensors (EPS)

Lower energy electron (30 keV) and proton (80 keV) bands

More look-directionsX-Ray Sensor (XRS) (Limited

functionality) Eliminate electronic range-changing

EUV Sensor (EUVS) New instrument, five wavelength

bands 10 - 125 nmSolar X-Ray Imager (SXI)

Improved sensitivity and resolution Autonomous event response

GOES O planned launch Nov 5, 2008

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Space Environment In-Situ Suite (SEISS) Monitors solar, galactic and in situ electron, proton, and alpha particle

fluxes Medium energy electrons and protons begin on GOES 13 Low energy electrons and protons begin on GOES-R Heavy Ions begin on GOES-R Implementation phase (Contractor: Assurance Technology Corporation)

Magnetometer (MAG) Monitors Earth’s time-varying vector magnetic field Included in spacecraft procurement

Extreme Ultraviolet and X-ray Irradiance Suite (EXIS) X-Ray Sensor (XRS) monitors whole-Sun X-ray irradiance in two bands EUV Sensor (EUVS) monitors whole-Sun EUV irradiance in spectral

bands - improved for GOES R Implementation phase (Contractor: Laboratory for Atmospheric and

Space Physics (LASP))

Solar Ultraviolet Imager (SUVI) Solar X-ray Imager (SXI) monitors solar flares, coronal holes, active

regions-first GOES 12 New spectral bands for GOES R Implementation phase (Lockheed Martin Advanced Technology Center)

Space Weather Instrumentation on GOES-R (Launch FY 2015)

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NOAA Polar Operational Environmental Satellites

(POES)

• Operational SatellitesNOAA15 (working SEM, no

SBUV)NOAA16 (working SEM, working

SBUV)NOAA17 (working SEM, working

SBUV)NOAA18 (working SEM, working

SBUV)

• Operating ParametersPolar orbit at 850 km altitude (90 minute orbital period)AM and PM orbits to provide complete coverage

• Future NOAA POES Satellites NOAA-N’ (2009)

• Collaborative Polar Satellites METOP-1 (2006) European CollaborationMETOP-2 (2011) European Collaboration

• Future (NPOESS)Collaboration with DOD and

NASACollaboration with Europeans

(METOP)Replaces POES, DMSPFirst NPOESS with space

weather ~ 2013POES SEM: Measurements of energetic particle energy deposition in upper atmosphere and solar irradiance to provide data of practical benefit to commercial and government activities and for extensive research.

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NPOESS Space Environmental Data Capabilities

Environmental Data Records (EDR) Pre-NM Performance

Post-NM Performance

Electron Density Profile Degraded EDR No capability

Ionospheric Scintillation Degraded EDR No capability

Neutral Density Profile Degraded EDR No capability

Auroral Imagery Degraded EDR No capability

Auroral Energy Deposition EDR satisfied Degraded EDR

Auroral Energy Particles EDR satisfied Degraded EDR

Energetic Ions EDR satisfied Degraded EDR

Electric Field EDR satisfied No capability

Medium Energy Charged Particles EDR satisfied Degraded EDR

Geomagnetic Field No capability No capability

In-situ Plasma Temperature EDR satisfied No capability

In-situ Plasma Fluctuations EDR satisfied No capability

Auroral Boundary EDR satisfied EDR satisfied

2007: OFCM working with OSTP to assess N-M impact to national space environmental services.

2008: OSTP will determine if a Phase II Assessment of alternatives and Strategies is warranted to mitigate reduced NPOESS SESS capabilities

Bonadonna AMS 08

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CISM: Huang et al.

Uses of Space Weather Data: Magnetometer Data Needed for Space Weather Model Validation

The geosynchronous magnetic field is used to validate models and eventually may be assimilated into models. It will be vital for models run in operations.

U. Of Michigan (Gombosi et al.)

U. Mich. Gombosi et al.

UNH: Raeder et al.

Multiple groups of MHD modelers rely on the GOES magnetic field data for validating their models.

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Solar Observations: Irradiance (EXIS)

Extreme Ultraviolet and X-ray Irradiance Suite

X-Ray Sensor (XRS) Monitors whole-Sun X-ray irradiance in two bands and drives the Radio Blackout portion of NOAA’s Space Weather Scales.

EUV Sensor (EUVS) Measures the solar EUV energy input to the upper atmosphere and improves the ability to predict upper atmospheric and ionospheric conditions.

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High-Latitude D-Region HF Radio Absorption

• One-stop shopping for HF fade anywhere on the planet• New product to combine polar and low latitude HF absorption• Deployment as a tool later this year

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In Situ Observations: Particles (SEISS)Space Environment In Situ Suite

SEISS products serve user communities in the airline industry, the satellite industry, and manned space flight operations.

AF-Geospace, Courtesy of Greg Ginet, AFRLCRRES Electron Radiation Model

The SEISS is an ensemble of electron, proton, and heavy ion detecting telescopes. SEISS data drives Solar Radiation Storm portion of NOAA’s Space Weather Scales.

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Solar Observations: Imaging(SUVI) Solar Ultraviolet Imager

Simulated GOES-R SUVI color composite (SOHO

EIT data, a joint NASA/ESA research program).

SUVI will locate coronal holes, flares, and coronal mass ejection source regions. It will also detect “Over the horizon” active regions and observe active region complexity. Together, these observations support all space weather customers.

SUVI will image the same portions of the Sun’s atmosphere as SXI, but in different spectral bands that provide better access to temperature and density.

GOES-12 SXI color composite.

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Utilizing Non-NOAA Observations and Data

By continued awareness of, and involvement in research programs, SWPC can encourage and work together with non-NOAA satellite programs to provide data for operational use. –ACE: Through an interagency partnership, NASA modified the ACE spacecraft to provide continuous real-time data.

–IMAGE: Through an interagency partnership, NASA modified the IMAGE spacecraft to provide continuous real-time data.

–Living With A Star: Through involvement on NASA definition panels, SWPC has encouraged NASA to define satellite programs that include utility to space weather forecasting and specification (Solar Dynamics Observatory, RBSP, …)

– STEREO: Through interagency planning, NOAA is obtaining real-time data from a satellite beacon that is being used by operations for forecasts and warnings of impending geomagnetic storms.

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COMMUNICATION/NAVIGATION OUTAGE FORECASTING SYSTEM

(C/NOFS) 2008 AF/NASA

RADIATION BELT STORM PROBES 2012 NASA

S0LAR DYNAMICS OBSERVATORY 2008 NASA

SWARM 2010 ESA

Examples of Future Satellite Programs That Can Contribute to Space Weather

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The Future

Observations and Predictive

Capabilities Enable Space Exploration

Space Shuttle, Space Station and extravehicular activities Cislunar and lunar orbits and lunar surface operations Mars

Space Radiation Hazards and the Vision for Space Exploration

National Research Council Report 2006

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Locations of Ground Stations and the GOES Field-line Intercept

GOES 11

GOES 12

Good ground-based coverage will foster conjugate studies with GOES .

Ground-based Observations Contribute to Space Weather Forecasting

Movie

Donovan, U. of Calgary

Canadian All-Sky Imagers and Magnetometers are a ground-component of the NASA THEMIS (Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions During Substorms) Mission.

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Conclusions

Space weather forecasting requires observations, but also modeling and scientific understanding.

NOAA assets in space include GOES and POES, efforts to provide a new solar wind monitor, and partnerships with NASA for ACE, STEREO, …

We have valuable partnerships with other agencies, and national and international organizations for using non-NOAA space-based observations as tools to improve space weather services, and as prototypes for possible future operational observations.

New observations and new priorities are guided by new challenges and customer needs.

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Contact Information:

Howard J. Singer, Chief ScientistNOAA Space Weather Prediction Center325 BroadwayBoulder, CO 80305303 497 6959howard.singer@noaa.gov