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North American Sales Forecast & WardsAuto Barometer
Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst
North American Sales Forecast & WardsAuto Barometer
Outlook for Q4 2015 and 2016
North American Sales Forecast & WardsAuto Barometer
Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst
2009 Actual
2010 Actual
2011 Actual
2012 Actual
2013 Actual
2014 Actual
2015 Forecast
2016 Forecast
2017 Forecast
2018 Forecast
2019 Forecast
2020 Forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
72%
74%
76%
78%
80%
82%
84%
Domestically Built Import % Domestic (right scale)Millions
Forecast North America Light-Vehicle SalesLong-Term Outlook through 2020
North American Sales Forecast & WardsAuto Barometer
Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst
Sales-N.America
(Yr/Yr % Change)
Production-N.America
(Yr/Yr % Change)
WardsAuto 15-Month North American Outlook – Q4 2015/CY 2016 Industry Forecasts
Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 20160%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%One less production day from 2015
One more production day from 2015
North American Sales Forecast & WardsAuto Barometer
Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst
North American Industry: Light-Vehicle Sales
2014 Actual 2015 Forecast 2016 Forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
15.1 15.8 16.1
4.34.4 4.4
Domestically Built Import
Millions
Fourteen-year high volume in U.S., record sales in Canada and Mexico, push North America light-vehicle sales to 20.3 million in 2015, the first time above 20 million
Volume rises to 20.5 million in 2016, with nearly all gains from domestically sourced vehicles thanks to increased capacity (replacing imports) and U.S. demand for big trucks
North American Sales Forecast & WardsAuto Barometer
Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst
Forecast North American Light-Vehicle Sales by Major Segments (Domestically Built vs. Import)
2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016CUV SMALL CAR MIDDLE CAR PICKUP SUV LUXURY CAR
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Domestically Built Import
Millions
CUVs forecast for the biggest volume growth in 2016 and top 6 million units.Ironically, CUV gains strongest in imports due to heavy overseas sourcing of
small and luxury versions.Pickups also up, but most other segments remain relatively flat.
North American Sales Forecast & WardsAuto Barometer
Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst
Forecast U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales - Domestically Built vs. Import
2014 2015 2016
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
13.0 13.5 13.8
3.53.6 3.5
Domestically Built Import
Millions
Sales forecast at 17.1 million units in 2015, rising to 17.3 million in 2016, with domestically produced volume more than offsetting a slight decline in imports.
Why a record 7th consecutive Y/Y increase in 2016:
Economy, including some key fundamentals, continues to grow
Pent-up demand for new vehicles caused by the recession still exists
Vehicle replacement (aging vehicles) Fuel prices remain relatively low Off-lease volume Interest rates expected to stay low
enough to be a plus
North American Sales Forecast & WardsAuto Barometer
Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst
Forecast U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales by Major Segment (Domestically Built vs. Import)
2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016CUV SMALL CAR MIDDLE CAR PICKUP SUV LUXURY CAR
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Domestically Built Import
Millions
CUV volume up in 2016, with an influx of imports to meet demand for small and premium-priced versions – could be underestimating
Small and Middle Cars continue to be crimped by CUVs – jobs and wage growth, low fuel costs a negative for cars
Pickups, small and large, rise in 2016 – construction and housing expected to continue steady (if not robust) gains – potential for incentive activity could push volumes higher
SUVs take small volume hit in 2016. New products that lifted 2015 start to lose luster, and much of the remainder of segment getting older – however, there is room for more competitive pricing
Luxury Cars getting pinched by luxury trucks – influx of new product keeps volumes flat with 2015
North American Sales Forecast & WardsAuto Barometer
Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst
2014 2015 2016
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
1.4 1.5 1.5
0.41 0.39 0.36
Domestically Built Import
Millions
Forecast Canada Light-Vehicle Sales - Domestically Built vs. Import
Forecasting slight downturn in 2016 but still close to record highs.
Canada likely met the technical definition of a recession in first-half 2015, but was not reflected in automotive sales.
Will reach all-time record volume (1.88 million) for third consecutive year in 2015. There are economic issues that could impact the rest of 2015 and 2016 such as low oil prices, higher consumer debt and the possibility the Bank of Canada raises interest rates next year.
However, the Canadian automotive market has a history of resilience and stability, with less volatility than the U.S. even during the recession. Also, solid U.S. economic growth is good for Canada’s export-dependent economy.
Thus, more likelihood the 2016 forecast is low rather than high.
North American Sales Forecast & WardsAuto Barometer
Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst
2014 2015 2016
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
0.710.81 0.85
0.42
0.500.52
Domestically Built Import
Millions
Forecast Mexico Light-Vehicle Sales - Domestically Built vs. Import
Forecasting record 1.31 million units in 2015, followed by an increase to 1.37 million next year; the 7th consecutive Y/Y gain.
Economic growth expected to stay in line with the U.S., meaning sales should continue to increase in 2016.
Hyundai entering market in mid-2014, and Kia starting up this past summer, have made the market more competitive, and most companies took market-share hits, although their volumes were up.
The advent of Hyundai and Kia, though they do sell domestically produced vehicles in Mexico, increased import penetration in 2015 to over 38% from 37% in 2014. Import penetration is forecast to remain flat in 2016.
CUVs are growing in Mexico but small cars, including a heavy mix of imported entry-level models, continue as the dominant segment with roughly 60% penetration.
North American Sales Forecast & WardsAuto Barometer
Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst
GM Ford FCA Toyota Honda Nissan Other0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
2014 Actual 2015 Forecast 2016 ForecastMil-lions
Forecast North American Light-Vehicle Production by Manufacturer
2014 Actual: 16.95 million2015 Forecast: 17.46 million2016 Forecast: 17.88 million
Source: WardsAuto/AutoForecast Solutions
North American Sales Forecast & WardsAuto Barometer
Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst
Q1/2015 Q2/2015 Q3/2015 Q4/2015 Q1/2016 Q2/2016 Q3/2016 Q4/20164.0
4.1
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.5
4.6
4.7
4.8
4.0
4.1
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.5
4.6
4.7
4.8
4.3 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.34.7 4.5 4.4
PRODUCTION TRAILING 12-MO QUARTERLY AVG.Millions
Forecast North American Production by Quarter
Q1/2015 Q2/2015 Q3/2015 Q4/2015 Q1/2016 Q2/2016 Q3/2016 Q4/201694%
96%
98%
100%
102%
104%
106%
108%
94%
96%
98%
100%
102%
104%
106%
108%
110%
99%
104%
98% 97%100%
107%
100% 99%
CAPACITY UTILIZATION TRAILING 12-MO. UTILIZATION
North American Sales Forecast & WardsAuto Barometer
Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst
Small Car
Middle Car
Large Car
Luxury Car
0 1 2 3 4
2016
2015
Millions
Forecast North American Production by Car Segment Group
Thrust of small-car increase from Mazda beginning production for Toyota – Yaris and Scion iA – off its SkyActiv-B platform. Export output also a positive factor, offsetting weak demand in North America
Weak demand causing production cut; nearly every major platform in this group will drop – one notable exception is GM-Epsilon (new Malibu)
Demand for full-size cars all but dried up and getting worse. Dominated by Chevrolet Impala, Ford Taurus and Fiat-Chrysler LX-platform vehicles
Majority of N. American luxury-car sales come from imports. Of the ~80 vehicles in this segment, only one-third have year-over-year sales increases, and only a handful of those are domestically produced. Increased production largely due to replacement of overseas sourcing (Lexus ES)
North American Sales Forecast & WardsAuto Barometer
Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst
Forecast North American Production by Light-Truck Segment Group
CUV
SUV
PICKUP
SMALL VAN
LARGE VAN
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
2016
2015
MillionsProduction increase would be stronger except many of the hottest vehicles, besides such vehicles as the Europe-built Fiat 500X, Jeep Renegade and South Korea-made Buick Encore, are luxury imports. Also, capacity constraints are causing some manufacturers to dual-source by bringing in more overseas-built versions (Chevrolet Trax, Honda HRV, Nissan Rogue, Toyota RAV4). Decline based on Nissan ending Xterra in August and Armada in December, and that 2015 included some inventory catch-up for GM’s large SUVs. (Note: some signs are pointing to a boom in Q4 SUV sales in the U.S., which could drain inventory enough to lift 2016 production above 2015)
Demand continues to rise. Output could go higher if Fiat-Chrysler and GM decide to get more competitive with Ford while it finally enjoys some year-over-year sales gains from the redesigned F-150Largely a rebound from lost production in 2015 when Fiat-Chrysler closed its Windsor plant for three months to begin tooling for the new Chrysler Town & Country coming next year
Demand expected relatively flat with competition a little stiffer from import models
North American Sales Forecast & WardsAuto Barometer
Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst
Q1/2015 Q2/2015 Q3/2015 Q4/2015 Q1/2016 Q2/2016 Q3/2016 Q4/20160.70
0.75
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%
-2%0%
4%2%
-8%
9%6%
4%
PRODUCTION TRAILING 12-MO QUARTERLY AVG. Y/Y % CHG. (right scale)
General Motors North American Timeline 2015-2016
Millions
Q1/2015 Q2/2015 Q3/2015 Q4/2015 Q1/2016 Q2/2016 Q3/2016 Q4/2016
Camaro transitions to Alpha architecture; production shifts to Lansing GR from Oshawa. Resume second
shift at Lansing GR
Production slows end of 2015 through early 2016 due to changeovers to redesigned
Malibu, Cruze; end of SRX; other plant changes
At Spring Hill: Cadillac XT5 starts Q1; redesigned Acadia
in Q2 (production shifted from Lansing Delta)
Next-generation Buick LaCrosse starts;
production shifted to Hamtramck from Fairfax
Production slowed for inventory control on cars
Wentzville added third shift to meet demand
for Colorado and Canyon
Add Chevrolet Bolt in Orion;
end production of Buick Verano
Add Cadillac CT6 in Hamtramck
Overseas-built Buick Cascada and mid-CUV start sales
Next-generation Volt started at
Hamtramck
North American Sales Forecast & WardsAuto Barometer
Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst
Q1/2015 Q2/2015 Q3/2015 Q4/2015 Q1/2016 Q2/2016 Q3/2016 Q4/20160.60
0.65
0.70
0.75
0.80
0.85
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
-7%
2%
19%15% 13%
5%
-9%
2%
PRODUCTION TRAILING 12-MO QUARTERLY AVG. Y/Y % CHG. (right scale)
Ford North American Timeline 2015-2016Production slowed for
changeovers to new F-150 at two plants; changeover to
new Edge and MKX at Oakville; inventory control
on cars, which underwent a severe slump in demand
Q1/2015 Q2/2015 Q3/2015 Q4/2015 Q1/2016 Q2/2016 Q3/2016 Q4/2016
Changeover to redesigned F-SuperDuty (T3 platform)
at Kentucky Truck
Ramp-up of new products, and weak year-ago totals,
lift Y/Y comparisons
Continued weakness for cars in general, more plants taking
summer downtime, will lower Y/Y comparisons
Add new Lincoln Continental (D8/CD4 platform) at Flat Rock
End Lincoln MKS in Chicago
Millions
North American Sales Forecast & WardsAuto Barometer
Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst
Q1/2015 Q2/2015 Q3/2015 Q4/2015 Q1/2016 Q2/2016 Q3/2016 Q4/20160.50
0.55
0.60
0.65
0.70
0.75
0.80
-12%-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%
6%
-5%-4%
-6%
-9%
3%
-4%
-1%
PRODUCTION TRAILING 12-MO QUARTERLY AVG. Y/Y % CHG. (right scale)
Fiat-Chrysler North American Timeline 2015-2016
Millions
Q1/2015 Q2/2015 Q3/2015 Q4/2015 Q1/2016 Q2/2016 Q3/2016 Q4/2016
Production slowed with 3-month
shutdown of Windsor minivan plant for early tooling for new Town &
Country in 2016
Next-generation Town & Country
(RU platform) starts in Windsor
Expected production slowdown – timing could change - for
early tooling at Toluca for compact Jeep CUV in 2017
Production down Y/Y as projected
demand weakens for Dart, LX cars and (to a lesser extent)
mid-size SUVs
Jeep Compass and Patriot end
production at Belvidere
North American Sales Forecast & WardsAuto Barometer
Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst
Q1/2015 Q2/2015 Q3/2015 Q4/2015 Q1/2016 Q2/2016 Q3/2016 Q4/20160.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
0.55
0.60
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
8%
4%
1%
-1%
4%
-2%
6%
-2%
PRODUCTION* TRAILING 12-MO QUARTERLY AVG. Y/Y % CHG. (right scale)
Toyota North American Timeline 2015-2016
Millions
*Production includes Camry output for Toyota by Subaru; excludes Mazda output for Toyota (products based on Mazda platform)
Q1/2015 Q2/2015 Q3/2015 Q4/2015 Q1/2016 Q2/2016 Q3/2016 Q4/2016
Lexus ES (MC platform) added at Georgetown.
Replaces Japan-sourced version
Y/Y comparisons skewed up due to lost
production in 2014 caused by severe
weather
Begin sales of redesigned Toyota Yaris and new Scion iA, both built by Mazda in
Mexico. (Data not included in Toyota production
totals.)
Redesigned Tacoma (285T
platform) began in San Antonio
and Tijuana
Stronger truck output lifts
volume
Weak demand for cars hurts output
Subaru ends Camry production for
Toyota; all Camry production
consolidated at Georgetown
Production began of next-generation Lexus RX (TNGA platform) in
Cambridge
North American Sales Forecast & WardsAuto Barometer
Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst
Q1/2015 Q2/2015 Q3/2015 Q4/2015 Q1/2016 Q2/2016 Q3/2016 Q4/20160.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
0.55
0.60
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
1%
7%
5%
2%
8%
6%
3%
6%
PRODUCTION TRAILING 12-MO QUARTERLY AVG. Y/Y % CHG. (right scale)
Honda North American Timeline 2015-2016
Millions
Q1/2015 Q2/2015 Q3/2015 Q4/2015 Q1/2016 Q2/2016 Q3/2016 Q4/2016
Redesigned Honda Pilot (2SL platform) begins in
Lincoln
Redesigned Honda Civic (GCP platform) begins in
Alliston 1 and Greensburg
Sales begin of Japan-built Honda HRV in addition to NA-built
models
New Honda Ridgeline pickup
(2SL platform) starts in Lincoln
Redesigned Honda Odyssey (2SL platform)
starts in Lincoln
Honda HRV (GCP
platform) production shifts to El Salto from
Celaya
Redesigned Honda CRV
(GCP platform) begins in
Alliston 2, East Liberty and Greensburg
End Honda Crosstour production in East
Liberty
North American Sales Forecast & WardsAuto Barometer
Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst
Q1/2015 Q2/2015 Q3/2015 Q4/2015 Q1/2016 Q2/2016 Q3/2016 Q4/20160.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
-2%
1% 1%
-1%
0% 0%
5%
2%
PRODUCTION TRAILING 12-MO QUARTERLY AVG. Y/Y % CHG. (right scale)
Nissan North American Timeline 2015-2016
Millions
Q1/2015 Q2/2015 Q3/2015 Q4/2015 Q1/2016 Q2/2016 Q3/2016 Q4/2016
Redesigned Nissan Maxima (D
platform) begins in Smyrna
Redesigned Nissan Titan
(D23/F-Alpha platform) begins
in Canton
New sub-compact Nissan
CUV (CMF-B platform) begins
in Cuernavaca
Nissan Xterra (D23/F-Alpha
platform) permanently
ends production
Nissan Armada (D23/F-Alpha
platform) permanently
ends production
Y/Y gains from increased CUV
output and cars for non-US
markets
North American Sales Forecast & WardsAuto Barometer
Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst
Q1/2015 Q2/2015 Q3/2015 Q4/2015 Q1/2016 Q2/2016 Q3/2016 Q4/20160.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%
14%12%
8%
2%
-1%
7%
10% 9%
PRODUCTION TRAILING 12-MO QUARTERLY AVG. Y/Y % CHG. (right scale)
Rest of Industry North American Timeline
Millions
Q1/2015 Q2/2015 Q3/2015 Q4/2015 Q1/2016 Q2/2016 Q3/2016 Q4/2016
Tesla adds Model X
Mitsubishi permanently ends
production at Normal, IL, plant; Outlander Sport – RVR in Canada - to be sourced from
Japan
Mazda began output of Scion iA/Toyota Yaris for
Toyota
Redesigned Hyundai Elantra (HD platform)
begins in Montgomery
Redesigned Kia Optima (NF/CM platform) began
in West Point
Kia begins first-time N.American
production of Forte (HD
platform) at new plant in
Monterrey
VW begins first-time N.American
production of Audi Q5 (MLB
platform) at new plant in San Jose
Chiappa
VW begins production of
new midsize CUV (MQB platform) in Chattanooga –
resume third shift
Subaru ends production of
Camry (MC platform) for Toyota
in Lafayette
Subaru begins first-time N.American production of Impreza (SGP platform) in
Lafayette
North American Sales Forecast & WardsAuto Barometer
Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst
WardsAuto North American Outlook – Part 1Q4 2015/Q1 2016 Product and Plant Actions
Sales start dates in italics are WardAuto estimations
Company Brand Series Action Mfr. Assembly Source Segment Production Start Sales Start
BMW BMW 1-Series New vehicle BMW Germany Luxury Low er Import Oct 2015
BMW BMW X1 Next generation BMW Germany CUV Luxury Small Import Oct 2015
Daimler Mercedes GLC New vehicle Daimler Germany CUV Luxury Small Import Oct 2015
Daimler Mercedes Metris New vehicle Daimler Spain Van Small Import Oct 2015
FCA Chrysler Tow n & Country Next generation FCA Windsor Van Small Mar 2016 May 2016
GM Buick Cascada New vehicle GM Poland Middle Specialty Import Mar 2016
GM Cadillac CT6 New vehicle GM Hamtramck Luxury Middle Nov 2015 Jan 2016
GM Cadillac XT5 New vehicle GM Spring Hill CUV Luxury Middle Feb 2016 Arp 2016
GM Chevrolet Camaro Next generation; plant change GM Lansing GR Middle Specialty Oct 2015 Jan 2016
GM Chevrolet Cruze Next generation GM Lordstow n Small Upper Feb 2016 Apr 2016
GM Chevrolet Malibu Next generation GM Fairfax* Middle Low er Nov 2015 Jan 2016
GM Chevrolet Spark Next generation GM South Korea Small Low er Import Oct 2015
GM Chevrolet Volt Next generation GM Hamtramck Luxury Low er Jul 2015 Oct 2015
Honda Acura NSX New vehicle Honda Marysville PMC Luxury Sport Aug 2015 Oct 2015
Honda Honda Civic Next generation Honda Alliston 1 Small Upper Aug 2015 Oct 2015
Honda Honda Civic Next generation Honda Alliston 2 Small Upper Sep 2015 Oct 2015
Honda Honda Civic Next generation Honda Greensburg Small Upper Sep 2015 Oct 2015
* Current-generation Malibu continues in Hamtramck until Q2 2016.
North American Sales Forecast & WardsAuto Barometer
Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst
Sales start dates in italics are WardAuto estimations
WardsAuto North American Outlook – Part 2Q4 2015/Q1 2016 Product and Plant Actions
Company Brand Series Action Mfr. Assembly Source Segment Production Start Sales Start
Hyundai/Kia Hyundai Elantra Next generation Hyundai South Korea Small Upper Dec 2015 Jan 2016
Hyundai/Kia Kia Optima Next generation KiaWest Point, South Korea
Middle Low er Aug 2015 Oct 2015
Jag.-L.Rover Jaguar XF Next generation Jaguar UK Luxury Middle Import Oct 2015
Mazda Mazda Mazda CX-3 New vehicle Mazda Japan CUV Small Import Q3 2015
Mazda Mazda Mazda CX-9 Next generation Mazda Japan CUV Large Import Oct 2015
Mazda Mazda Mazda5 Next generation Mazda Japan CUV Middle Import Oct 2015
Mitsubishi Mitsubishi L200 Next generation Mitsubishi Thailand Pickup Small Import Oct 2015
Nissan Nissan Titan Next generation Nissan Canton Pickup Large Sep 2015 Nov 2015
Toyota Lexus ES Sourcing change Toyota Georgetow n Luxury Low er Aug 2015 Oct 2015
Toyota Lexus LS Next generation Toyota Japan Luxury Upper Import Oct 2015
Toyota Lexus RX Next generation Toyota Cambridge CUV Luxury Middle Sep 2015 Oct 2015
Toyota Toyota Mirai New Vehicle Toyota Japan Luxury Upper Import Oct 2015
Toyota Toyota Prius Next generation Toyota Japan Middle Upper Import Dec 2015
Toyota Toyota Tacoma Next generation Toyota San Antonio, Tijuana Pickup Small Jul 2015 Oct 2015
Toyota Toyota Yaris Next generation Mazda Salamanca Small Low er Aug 2015 Oct 2015
Volksw agen Audi TT Next generation Volksw agen Hungary Luxury Sport Import Oct 2015
North American Sales Forecast & WardsAuto Barometer
Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst
Thank You,
Haig StoddardSenior Industry Analyst, WardsAuto