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S Y S T M E S S O L A I R E Sn 17 2B A R O M T R E P H O TO V O LTA Q U E AV R I L2006

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1793.5 MWINSTALLEDIN EUROPEAN UNION

Le march europen a montr toute sa soliditen 2005. 645 MWc de photopiles ont tinstalls dans les pays de lUnion europennecontre 546 MWc en 2004 (+ 18,2 %). Cettecroissance aurait pu tre plus importantesi le march ntait actuellement pas bridpar un manque de matire premire.LAllemagne tait toujours en 2005 le premier

march mondial du photovoltaque, loindevant le Japon et les tats-Unis, avec plusde 600 MWc installs. Cette russite insolentea inspir lEspagne et lItalie qui ont mis enplace les conditions dun dveloppement rapidede leur filire photovoltaque.

The European market showed all of its strengthand soundness in 2005. Nearly 645 MWp of

solar cells were installed in the countries

of the European Union vs. 546 MWp in 2004(+ 18.2%). This growth could have been evengreater if the market had not been continually

curbed by a lack of raw materials.Germany remained the leading photovoltaic

market in the world in 2005, positionedfar ahead of Japan and the USA, with more than

600 MWp installed. This unabashed successinspired both Spain and Italy, whichset up conditions in order to rapidly

develop their photovoltaic sectors.

1793,5 MWINSTALLSDANS LUNION EUROPE

s t PHOTOVOLTAICENERGY BAROMETERBAROMTREPHOTOVOLTAQUE

S t o c k

C o n n e c t i o n

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S Y S T M E S S O L A I R E Sn 17 2P H O TO V O LTA I C B A R O M E T E R A P R I L2006

p h o t o v o l t a i c

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Pour la premire fois, le marchphotovoltaque de lUnion europennea atteint les limites des capacits dap-provisionnement de la filire. Les

industriels du photovoltaque auraienten effet pu produire beaucoup plus demodules sans la pnurie actuelle desilicium, principale matire premiredes photopiles. Les premiers chiffresdisponibles annoncent un minimumde 645,3 MWc installs dans les pays

de lUnion(tableau 1), soit une crois-sance minimum de 18,2 % par rap-port au march 2004. La puissancetotale du parc photovoltaque stablit

dsormais environ 1793,5 MWc(tableau 2), ce qui correspond aubesoin en lectricit de 600000foyers (avec comme hypothse uneconsommation moyenne annuelle parfoyer de 3 000 kWh par an, horschauffage lectrique). Autre indica-

teur, le ratio puissance crte par habi-tant des 25 pays de lUnion est ennette augmentation. Il est pass de2,5 Wc/hab. en 2004 3,9 Wc/hab.

(tableau 3)en 2005. Les applicationsrelies au rseau (toits solaires,faades et centrales) reprsententaujourdhui la quasi-totalit du mar-ch de lUnion europenne, soit prsde 99 % de parts de march (gra-phiques 1 et 1 bis).

The EU photovoltaic market reached the limits of itssupply capacities for the first time. Photovoltaic indus-trialists could have produced considerably more modulesif it had not been for the present shortage of silicon, theprincipal raw material in solar cell production. The firstfigures available announce a minimum of 645.3 MWp ins-talled in the EU countries (table 1), representing a mini-mum growth of 18.2% with respect to the 2004 market.Total installed photovoltaic capacity is now establishedin the vicinity of 1793.5 MWp(table 2) , which corresponds

to the electrical needs of 600000 households (with theassumption that each household has an average annualconsumption of 3000 kWh per year, excluding electricalheating). Another indicator, the peak power per capitaratio of the 25 member States of the European Union, isalso rising markedly. It went from 2.5 Wp per inhabitantin 2004 up to 3.9 Wp (table 3) per inhabitant in 2005.Grid-connected applications (solar roofs, faades andpower plants) today represent practically all of the EU mar-ket, i.e. share of nearly 99% (graphs 1 and 1 bis).

PUISSANCE PHOTOVOLTAQUE INSTALLE DANS LUNION EUROPENNE DURANT LANNE 2004-2005 (EN MWPHOTOVOLTAIC POWER INSTALLED IN EUROPEAN UNION DURING THE YEAR 2004-2005 (IN MWP)

T1

Source : EurObservER 2006

Pays/ Countries March/ market 2004 March/ market 2005*

rseau/ hors rseau/ Total rseau/ hors rseau/ Totalon grid off grid on grid off grid

Allemagne/Germany 500,000 3,000 503,000 600,000 3,000 603,000Espagne/Spain 9,241 1,348 10,589 18,700 1,500 20,200France/France 4,180 1,050 5,230 5,800 0,567 6,367Italie/Italy 4,200 0,800 5,000 4,500 0,500 5,000Royaume-Uni/United Kingdom 2,197 0,064 2,261 2,400 0,100 2,500Autriche/ Austria 1,833 0,514 2,347 1,730 0,520 2,250Pays-Bas/Netherlands 5,540 0,120 5,660 2,000 0,100 2,100Grce/Greece 0,150 1,151 1,300 0,156 0,745 0,900Portugal/Portugal 0,103 0,528 0,631 0,100 0,500 0,600Belgique/Belgium 0,336 0,000 0,336 0,502 0,000 0,502Danemark/Denmark 0,360 0,085 0,445 0,300 0,050 0,350Sude/Sweden 0,000 0,285 0,285 0,060 0,250 0,310Finlande/Finland 0,030 0,270 0,300 0,030 0,270 0,300Chypre/Cyprus 0,105 0,050 0,155 0,235 0,045 0,280Irlande/Ireland 0,000 0,020 0,020 0,000 0,200 0,200Slovnie/Slovenia 0,005 0,028 0,033 0,112 0,004 0,116Rp. tchque/Czech Rep. 0,069 0,017 0,086 0,111 0,003 0,114Pologne/Poland 0,022 0,105 0,127 0,016 0,067 0,083Luxembourg/Luxembourg 8,030 0,000 8,030 0,066 0,000 0,066Hongrie/Hungary 0,030 0,008 0,038 0,030 0,008 0,038Malte/Malta 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,009 0,000 0,009Estonie/Estonia 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,001 0,001Lettonie/Latvia 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,001 0,001Slovaquie/Slovakia 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000Lituanie/Lithuania 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000Total U.E. 536,431 9,443 545,873 636,857 8,430 645,287* provisoire/preliminary.

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53EurObservER

603 MWP INSTALLED EUROPEAN MARKET

Germany alone installs 603 MWp

The importance of the German market and the multiplicityof the power network operators make it difficult to provideprecise figures for this sector. As was the case for the yearbefore, theres a dispute between provisional figures publi-shed by the industrialists and figures resulting from theannual survey made by Photon International magazine.

The new German solar industry association (BSW-Bun-desverband Solarwirtschaft), which results from the mer-ging of the BSI (Bundesverband Solarindustrie) and theUVS (Unternehmensvereinigung Solarwirtschaft), announ-ced a 2005 market equal to at least 600 MWp, i.e. the equi-valent of 200 000 connected households. For its part, Pho-ton International magazine announced a 2005 market of 870 MW in its March 2006 issue! This figure is based onthe production of inverters intended for the German pho-tovoltaic market. It should be remembered that a situationlike this already occurred the year before. At the beginning

UN MARCH EUROPENDE 645 MWC INSTALLS

Allemagne,603 MWc elle seule

Limportance du march allemand etla multiplicit des oprateurs sur lerseau rendent difficile une compta-

b a r o m

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PARCS PHOTOVOLTAQUES DE LUNION EUROPENNE EN 2004 ET EN 2005* (EN MWC)PV INSTALLED CAPACITY IN EUROPEAN UNION IN 2004 AND IN 2005* (IN MWP)

T2

Pays/ Puissances cumules fin 2004/ Puissances cumules fin 2005/Countries Cumulated power at the end of 2004 Cumulated power at the end of 2005

rseau/ hors rseau/ Total rseau/ hors rseau/ Totalon grid off grid on grid off grid

Allemagne/Germany 908,000 26,000 934,000 1508,000 29,000 1537,000Espagne/Spain 23,800 13,700 37,500 42,500 15,200 57,700Pays-Bas/Netherlands 44,300 4,800 49,100 46,300 4,900 51,200Italie/Italy 18,500 12,500 31,000 23,000 13,000 36,000France/France 8,000 18,300 26,300 13,800 18,867 32,667Luxembourg/Luxembourg 23,200 0,000 23,200 23,266 0,000 23,266Autriche/ Austria 16,493 2,687 19,180 18,223 3,207 21,430Royaume-Uni/United Kingdom 7,386 0,778 8,164 9,786 0,878 10,664Grce/Greece 1,257 3,288 4,544 1,412 4,032 5,444Sude/Sweden 0,194 3,672 3,866 0,254 3,922 4,176Finlande/Finland 0,193 3,509 3,702 0,223 3,779 4,002Portugal/Portugal 0,500 2,200 2,700 0,600 2,700 3,300Danemark/Denmark 2,035 0,255 2,290 2,335 0,305 2,640Belgique/Belgium 1,210 0,053 1,263 1,712 0,053 1,765Chypre/Cyprus 0,255 0,090 0,345 0,490 0,135 0,625Rp. tchque/Czech Rep. 0,269 0,147 0,416 0,380 0,150 0,530Pologne/Poland 0,069 0,165 0,234 0,085 0,232 0,317Irlande/Ireland 0,000 0,100 0,100 0,000 0,300 0,300Slovnie/Slovenia 0,006 0,094 0,100 0,118 0,098 0,216Hongrie/Hungary 0,055 0,083 0,138 0,085 0,091 0,176Slovaquie/Slovakia 0,000 0,060 0,060 0,000 0,060 0,060Lituanie/Lithuania 0,000 0,017 0,017 0,000 0,017 0,017Malte/Malta 0,006 0,000 0,006 0,015 0,000 0,015Lettonie/Latvia 0,000 0,004 0,004 0,000 0,005 0,005Estonie/Estonia 0,000 0,002 0,002 0,000 0,003 0,003Total U.E. 1055,728 92,504 1 148,231 1692,584 100,934 1793,518* provisoire/preliminary.

bilit prcise de ce march. Commelan dernier, il existe une querelleentre le chiffre provisoire publi parles industriels et le chiffre qui rsulte

de lenqute annuelle du magazinePhoton International .En effet, la nouvelle association delindustrie allemande du solaire (BSW Bundesverband Solarwirtschaft),qui est issue de la fusion du BSI (Bun-

desverband Solarindustrie) et de lUVS(Unternehmensvereinigung Solar-wirtschaft), annonce un march aumoins gal 600 MWc en 2005, soit

lquivalent de 200 000 foyers connec-ts. De son ct, le magazinePhotonInternational annonce dans son ditionde mars 2006 un march 2005 de870 MW! Ce chiffre est bas sur laproduction donduleurs destine au


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Relies au rseau/on-grid 94,4 %

Relies au rseau/on-grid 98,7 %

Hors rseau/off-grid 5,6 %

Hors rseau/off-grid 1,3 %



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54 EurObservER

march allemand du photovoltaque.Rappelons que lan pass une tellesituation stait dj produite. Les deuxorganismes avaient, au dbut de lan-ne 2005, annonc des chiffres sensi-

blement diffrents pour le march2004 (363 MWc pour le BSI et unefourchette de 593 et 673 MWc pourPhoton International ) avant de rviserchacun leurs premires estimations la hausse quelques mois plus tard (res-pectivement 500 MWc et 770 MWc).

Dans lattente de rvaluations et enlabsence dun consensus sur les chif-fres de march outre-Rhin, nous repre-nons dans nos tableaux les premiresestimations du BSW, galement adop-

tes par le ministre de lEnvironne-ment allemand. Quoi quil en soit, lasolidit du march allemand sexplique,comme en 2004, par la revalorisationdu tarif dachat adopt dans la nouvelleloi nergie renouvelable (applicabledepuis le 1eraot 2004). Cette loi oblige

les oprateurs du rseau acheter llec-tricit des systmes photovoltaques,selon les tarifs suivants: Surfaces libres: 45,7 c/kWh; Toits < 30 kW : 57,4 c/kWh;

Toits entre 30 et 100 kW:54,6 c/kWh; Toits > 100 kW : 54 c/kWh; Faades < 30kW : 62,4 c/kW; Faades entre 30 et 100 kW:

59,6 c/kWh; Faades > 100 kW : 59 c/kWh.

of 2005, the two German organisations had announcedmarkedly different figures for the 2004 market (363 MWpfor BSI and a 593 MWp to 673 MWp range forPhoton Inter-national ) before they each revised their first estimatesupwards a few months later (at respectively 500 MWp and770 MWp). While awaiting re-evaluations and in theabsence of a consensus with respect to German marketfigures, we used the first BSW estimates in our tables, whichwere also those used by the German Ministry of the Envi-ronment. Be that as it may, and again as in 2004, the sound-ness and strength of the German market can be explainedby the revalorisation of the purchase price adopted inthe new renewable energies law (applicable since August 1 st

2004). This law requires power grid operators to purchasephotovoltaic system origin electricity according to the fol-lowing tarifs: Free surfaces : 45.7 c/kWh; Roofs < 30 kW: 57.4 c/kWh; Roofs between 30 and 100 kW: 54.6 c/kWh; Roofs > 100 kW: 54 c/kWh; Faades < 30 kW: 62.4 c/kW; Faades between 30 and 100 kW: 59.6 c/kWh; Faades > 100 kW: 59 c/kWh.

These tariffs are valid for a period of 20 years and are sub-ject to a 5% annual degression rate.

Spanish market passes 20 MWp

Spains photovoltaic market increased once again. The firstestimates of the IDAE (Institute for energy diversificationand savings) show a 2005 market amounting to 20.2 MWp(18.7 MWp connected to the power grid and 1.5 MWp notconnected to the grid), which grew by 90.8% with respectto the 2004 market. IDAE now forecasts a 26 MWp increasein 2006, with the objective being to reach the 400 MWpbenchmark by the year 2010. This growth can be explainedby the improvements in photovoltaic origin electricity pur-chase conditions resulting from Royal Decree 436/2004 of March 2004. This new decree guarantees the purchase of photovoltaic origin electricity for a period of 25 years (5 yearslonger than in Germany). Beyond this period, the law gua-rantees purchases at 80% of the tariff until the end of sys-tem life. Article 33 of the royal decree specifies, however, thatthe tariff system can be modified when the photovoltaic ori-gin capacity on the grid will have reached 150 MWp. Thistext also increases the maximum size of eligible systems up

PART DE MARCH DES APPLICATIONS INSTALLESDANS LUNION EUROPENNE DURANT LANNE 200MARKET SHARE OF THE DIFFERENT APPLICATIONS INSTALLED IN EU DURING 2005

G1 bisPART DES APPLICATIONS RSEAU ET HORS RSEAUINSTALLES DANS LUNION EUROPENNESHARE OF ON-GRID AND OFF-GRID APPLICATIONS INSTALLED IN EU

G1


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Ces tarifs, valables sur vingt ans, subis-sent une dgressivit annuelle de 5 %.

Espagne, le marchpasse les 20 MWc

LEspagne a connu une nouvelle aug-mentation de son march photovol-taque. Les premires estimations delIdae (Institut pour la diversification etlconomie de lnergie) montrent unmarch 2005 de 20,2 MWc (18,7MWcrelis au rseau et 1,5 MWc non reli

Italy, purchase tariff up to 500 MWp

The new purchase price system adopted by decree on 15 th July2005 became quickly overextended with requests alreadyamounting to 311 MWp for connection to the power grid asof the end of 2005, while the purchase price was only validfor the first 100 MWp. In order to meet expectation of inves-tors, the Italian government promulgated a new decree on26th July that raises the ceiling to 500 MWp (with 360 MWpof systems lower than 50 kWp and 140 MWp of systemsincluded between 50 kWp and 1 MWp). On the other hand,the government limited the annual number of authorisa-tions at 85 MWp per year (with 60 MWp of systems lowerthan 50 kWp and 25 MWp of systems included between50 kWp and 1 MWp). The characteristics of this purchaseprice, which only concerns installations with capacities bet-ween 1 kWp and 1 MWp, are the following: 45.5 c/kWh for systems lower than 20 kWp; 46 c/kWh for systems between 20 and 50 kWp; 49 c/kWh for systems higher than 50 kWp; + 10% for systems integrated in building faades.

Valid for a duration of 20 years, these prices are subject toan annual 5% degression as well as an adjustment for infla-tion, and this, beginning in 2007.The photovoltaic origin purchase price was not yet ableto show the full extent of its worth in 2005 since the Italianmarket still needs to structure itself by developing itsdistribution networks and by increasing the number of ins-tallers. The CESI (Italian experimental electro-technical

au rseau), en croissance de 90,8 %par rapport au march 2004. LIdaeprvoit dores et dj une augmenta-tion en 2006 26MWc, lobjectif tantdatteindre le cap des 400 MWc lho-

rizon 2010. Cette croissance sexpliquepar lamlioration des conditionsdachat de llectricit photovoltaqueconscutive au dcret royal 436/2004de mars 2004. Ce nouveau dcret ga-rantit lachat pendant 25 ans (5 ans deplus quen Allemagne) de llectricitphotovoltaque. Passe cette dure, laloi assure lachat 80 % du tarif jusqula fin de vie du systme. Larticle 33 dudcret royal prcise toutefois que le sys-tme de tarif dachat pourra tre modi-fi lorsque la puissance photovoltaque

sur le rseau aura atteint 150 MWc.Ce texte a galement augment la taillemaximale des systmes ligibles 100 kW contre 5kW auparavant. Le tarif dachat espagnol a la particularit de nepas tre fix. Il est calcul en fonctiondun taux de rfrence moyen qui varieselon le prix de llectricit, reprsen-

to 100 kWp vs. a 5 kWp limit previously. The Spanish pur-chase price has the particularity of not being fixed. It iscalculated as a function of a mean reference ratio that variesaccording to the price of electricity, and which amountedto 42.1 c/KWh in 2005. Purchase price has become theonly incentive in Spain since 2005, seeing that the IDAEsubvention programme, which consisted of financing up to19% of investment costs, was not renewed.


tant 42,1 c/KWh en 2005. Le tarif dachat est devenu la seule incitationdepuis 2005, le programme de sub-ventions de lIdae qui consistait finan-cer jusqu 19 % de linvestissement

nayant pas t renouvel.Italie, tarif dachatjusqu 500 MWc

Le nouveau systme de tarif dachatadopt par dcret le 15 juillet 2005 sestrapidement laiss dborder avec, fin2005, 311 MWc de demande de raccor-dement au rseau alors que le tarif dachat ntait valable que pour lespremiers 100 MWc. Afin de rpondre lattente des investisseurs, le gouver-

nement a promulgu le 26 juilletun nouveau dcret augmentant le pla-fond 500 MWc (360 MWc de sys-tmes infrieurs 50 kWc et 140 MWcde systmes compris entre 50 kWcet 1 MWc). Le gouvernement a enrevanche limit le nombre annueldautorisations 85 MWc par an

PUISSANCE PHOTOVOLTAQUE PAR HABITANT(WC/HAB) DES DIFFRENTS PAYS DELUNION EUROPENNE EN 2005PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER PER INHABITANTS (WP/UNHAB) FOR EACH EU COUNTRY IN 2005

T3

Pays Wc/HabCountries Wp/Inhab.Luxembourg/Luxembourg 51,47Allemagne/Germany 18,56Pays-Bas/Netherlands 3,13Autriche/ Austria 2,65Espagne/Spain 1,40Chypre/Cyprus 0,81Finlande/Finland 0,77Italie/Italia 0,62France/France 0,54Grce/Greece 0,51Danemark/Danemark 0,49Sude/Sweden 0,46Portugal/Portugal 0,32Royaume-Uni/United Kingdom 0,18Belgique/Belgium 0,17Slovnie/Slovenia 0,11Irlande/Ireland 0,07Rp. tchque/Czech Rep. 0,05Malte/Malta 0,04Hongrie/Hungary 0,02Slovaquie/Slovakia 0,01Pologne/Poland 0,01Lituanie/Lithuania 0,00Estonie/Estonia 0,00Lettonie/Latvia 0,00U.E. 3,94Source : EurObservER 2006

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(60 MWc de systmes infrieurs 50 kWc et 25 MWc de systmes com-pris entre 50 kWc et 1 MWc). Lescaractristiques de ce tarif dachat, quiconcerne uniquement les installations

comprises entre 1 kW et 1 MW, sontles suivantes : 45,5 c/kWh pour les systmes inf-

rieurs 20 kWc ; 46 c/kWh pour les systmes entre

20 et 50 kWc; 49 c/kWh pour les systmes sup-

rieurs 50 kWc; + 10 % pour les systmes intgrs

en faade.

Valables pour une dure de vingt ans,ces tarifs sont soumis une dgressi-

vit de 5% et une indexation sur lin-flation, et ce, partir de 2007.Pour lanne 2005, le tarif dachat napas encore pu donner sa mesure, lemarch italien ayant besoin de se struc-turer en dveloppant ses rseaux de dis-tribution et en augmentant le nombredes installateurs. Le Cesi (Centre lec-

trotechnique exprimental italien), quiveut rester trs prudent, estime que lapuissance supplmentaire installe en2005 est denviron 5 MWc (90 % relisau rseau et 10 % hors rseau), ce qui

porterait la puissance totale du parcphotovoltaque italien 36 MWc.

France, de nouvelles incitations

En France mtropolitaine, le nouveausystme dincitation mis en place en2005 pour les particuliers na pasfait ses preuves. Celui-ci combinaitun systme de tarif dachat faible(14,13 c/kWh en 2005) et un systmede crdit dimpt, o 40 % du prix delquipement est rembours par lad-

ministration fiscale. Finalement, lemarch du photovoltaque reli rseauen mtropole ne sest dvelopp quedans les rgions o a t attribue uneprime supplmentaire linvestisse-ment (variant entre 1 et 3,50 par wattinstall). Selon lAdeme, le nombre deprojets financs en mtropole a atteint

politan France and 437 kWp (323 sites electrified) in theFrench overseas departments financed by CPEA (Contrat dePlan Etat-ADEME). In the end, the overall French market willhave reached an installed capacity of 6.4 MWp in 2005, inclu-ding 5.8 MWp connected to the power grid, which is onehundred times less than in Germany.Having noted this situation, the French governmentannounced in October 2005 that it was setting up a newpurchase price system of 22.5 c/kWh for private indivi-duals and 30.5 c/kWh for other categories of producers.This difference in treatment is explained by the fact that pri-vate individuals continue to benefit from a tax credit, increa-sed to 50% in 2006, which is not the case for groups, com-munities or business firms. Purchase price revalorisationwill be effective as soon as the application decree is publi-shed, which is expected for the end of March 2006.

Phantom market in Luxembourg

The leading photovoltaic country in terms of per capita capa-city (58.2 Wp per inhabitant in 2005), Luxembourg instal-led practically nothing during 2005 (66 kWp accordingto the electricity distributor Cegedel). Grid connectioncapacity represented 8.03 MWp in 2004 and 13.58 MWpin 2003. This situation can be chiefly explained by the sup-pression in 2005 of the photovoltaic origin purchase price(45 c/kWh in 2004) as well as by a considerable decreasein investment aids. The subvention for private individualsthat amounted to 50% of installation cost dropped to15% in 2005 and 2006 with a premium of 900 per kWp

centre), which wants to remain very prudent, estimatesthat the supplementary capacity installed in 2005 is in thevicinity of 5 MWp (90% connected to the power grid and10% off-grid), which will raise Italys total installed capa-city to 36 MWp.

France, new incentives

In metropolitan France, the new incentive system set up forprivate individuals in 2005 has not shown its ability toincrease photovoltaic installations. It combines a low pho-tovoltaic purchase price (14.13 c/kWh in 2005) with a taxcredit system where 40% of equipment cost is reimbursedby the French tax department. Finally, the grid-connectedphotovoltaic market in metropolitan France has only deve-loped in those regions where a supplementary premium forinvestment is attributed (varying between 1 and 3.5 perWatt installed). According to ADEME, the number of pro-jects financed in metropolitan France reached an installedcapacity of 1.9 MWp in 2005, i.e. 0.3 MWp less than in 2004.The situation was more favourable in the French overseasdepartments where ADEME still continues to directly financephotovoltaic projects (for example: a subvention of 3.9 perWp for installations having capacities lower than 5 kWpin Guadeloupe). The result of this is that the number of projects financed in the French overseas departments rea-ched 3.9 MWp in 2005, i.e. 1 MWp more than in 2004. Thenon grid connected applications market declined in 2005,with 131 kWp (for 41 installations) financed by FACE (Fondsdamortissement de la charge dlectrification) in metro-

une puissance de 1,9 MWc en 2005,soit 0,3 MWc de moins quen 2004. Lasituation a t plus favorable dans lesDpartements doutre-mer o lAdemefinance encore directement les projets

photovoltaques (ex. subvention de3,9 par Wc pour les installations depuissance infrieure 5 kWc en Gua-deloupe). Rsultat, le nombre de pro-jets financs dans les DOM a atteint3,9 MW en 2005, soit 1 MW de plusquen 2004. Le march des applica-tions non relies au rseau est, quant lui, en baisse avec, en 2005, 131 kWc(pour 41 installations) financs par leFace (Fonds damortissement de lacharge dlectrification) en mtropoleet 437 kWc (323 sites lectrifis) dans

les DOM financs par le CPEA (Contratde plan tat-Ademe). Le march fran-ais dans son ensemble a atteint en2005 une puissance de 6,4 MWc, dont5,8 MWc relis au rseau, cent foismoins quen Allemagne.Prenant acte de la situation, le gouver-nement a annonc en octobre 2005 la

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b a r o m e t e r

3 , 3 2 , 7

3 2 , 7

2 6 , 3

0 , 3 0 , 1 1 0 ,

7

8 , 2

1 , 8 1 , 3

2 3 , 3

2 3 , 2

3 6 , 0

3 1 , 0

2 1 , 5

1 9 , 2

0 , 5 0 , 4

2 , 6 2 , 3

4 , 2 3 , 9

5 1 , 2

4 9 , 1

5 7 , 7

3 7 , 5

FR**

UK

BE

NL

LU

AT

SI*

CZ

DK

SE

IE

ES

IT

MT*

PT

* Non reprsentatif/Not significant.** DOM inclus/Overseas department included.Source : EurObservER 2006

PARC PHOTOVOLTAQUE INSTALL EN EUROPEINSTALLED PV CAPACITY IN EUROPEAN UNION

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b a r o m


q u e

0 , 3 2

0 , 2 3

4 , 0 3 , 7 1 5 3 7 ,

0

DE

PL

LT*

LV*

EE*

HU*

CY

SK*

FI

GR

5 , 4 4 , 5

0 , 6 3

0 , 3 5

9 3 4 , 0

Parc install fin 2004 et fin 2005(dont le march indiqu en plusclair) en MWc /Installed capacity at the end of 2004and at the end of 2005 (including market in brighter color) in MWp

Total install dans lUnion europenne 25 (en MWc)/Total installed in E.U. 25 (in MWp) S o

u r c e :

E u r

O b s e r v

E R 2 0 0

6

Lgende/Key

1 7 9 3 ,

5

1 1 4 8 ,

2

3 2 , 7

2 6 , 3

2 0 0 4 2 0 0

5

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Nouveaux membres de lUE:un dveloppement faible

Le march du photovoltaque est restpeu dvelopp dans lensemble des

dix nouveaux pays membres avec0,6 MWc pour une puissance totaleinstalle de 1,8 MWc. Parmi ceux-ci,Chypre a devanc la Rpublique tch-que sur le plan de la puissance instal-le grce un march de 0,28 MWc.La Rpublique tchque na en effetajout que 114 kWc en 2005, grcenotamment au programme photovol-taque Sun to School qui a permislinstallation dune centrale de 40 kWcsur le toit de luniversit de Masaryket dune autre de 20 kWc sur le toit de

mise en place dun nouveau systmede tarif dachat de 22,5 c/kWh pourles particuliers et de 30,5 c/kWh pourles autres catgories de producteurs.Cette diffrence de traitement sex-

plique par le fait que les particulierscontinuent de bnficier dun crditdimpt, augment 50 % en 2006,ce qui nest pas le cas des collectivitset des entreprises. La revalorisation dutarif dachat sera effective ds la publi-cation du dcret dapplication, atten-due pour la fin du mois de mars2006.

Luxembourg, march fantme

Le premier pays du photovoltaque surle plan de la puissance par habitant

the University of Ujep. Slovenia also increased its total ins-talled capacity by connecting seven new installations repre-senting 112 kWp capacity to the power grid.

A WORLD-WIDE INDUSTRY RUNNINGAT FULL THROTTLE

The figures announced by all the industrialists world-wideare much higher than expected. The annual survey of theAmerican review, PV News, reported that 1727 MWp of pho-tovoltaic cells were produced in 2005 (graph 2), i.e. 44.5%growth with respect to 2004 (1195 MWp produced). Eventhough production growth for 2005 is lower than that of 2004

limited at 2 KWp, plus 1 additional kWp for each memberof the household older than 18.

New members and low development

The photovoltaic market remained only little developed in allof the 10 new member States, with 0.6 MWp for a total ins-talled capacity of 1.8 MWp. Among these countries, Cyprusmoved ahead of the Czech Republic in terms of installed capa-city thanks to a 0.28 MWp market. The Czech Republic addedonly 114 kWp in 2005 and this thanks in particular to the Sunto School photovoltaic programme that permitted installa-tion of a 40 kWp solar plant on the roof of the University of Masaryk and of another with 20 kWp capacity on the roof of

(58,2 Wc/hab en 2005) na pratique-ment rien install durant lanne 2005(66 kWc selon le distributeur dlec-tricit Cegedel). La connexion aurseau reprsentait 8,03 MWc en

2004 et 13,58 MWc en 2003. Cettesituation sexplique principalementpar la suppression en 2005 du tarif dachat photovoltaque (45 c/kWh en2004) mais galement par une dimi-nution importante des aides linves-tissement. La subvention pour les par-ticuliers qui tait de 50 % du montantde linstallation est en effet passe 15 % en 2005 et 2006 avec une primede 900 par kWc limit 2 KWc, plus1 kWc supplmentaire par personnede plus de 18 ans habitant le foyer.


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VOLUTION DE LA PRODUCTION MONDIALE DE CELLULES PHOTOVOLTAQUES (EN MWC)EVOLUTION OF WORLDWIDE PHOTOVOLTAIC CELL PRODUCTION (IN MWP)

G2

Sources : EurObservER, PV News March 2006

1 500

1 750

2 000

1 000

1 250

500

750

250

0

1 9 9 3

1 9 9 4

1 9 9 5

1 9 9 6

1 9 9 7

1 9 9 8

1 9 9 9

2 0 0 0

2 0 0 1

2 0 0 2

2 0 0 3

2 0 0 4

2 0 0 5

69,09 69,44 77,6 88,6125,8 154,9

199,9288,5

401,4557,8

759,0

1 195,0

1 727,0

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celle de Ujep. La Slovnie a galementaugment son parc en connectant aurseau sept nouvelles installationsreprsentant une puissance de 112 kWc.

UNE INDUSTRIE MONDIALE PLEIN RGIME

Les chiffres annoncs par lensembledes industriels mondiaux sont beau-coup plus importants que prvus. Len-qute annuelle de la revue amricainePV Newsfait tat de 1727 MWc de cel-lules photovoltaques produites en 2005(graphique 2), soit une croissance de44,5% par rapport 2004 (1195 MWc

produits). Si la croissance de la pro-duction de lanne 2005 est infrieure celle de 2004 (57,4 %), son impor-tance peut paratre tonnante comptetenu de la pnurie actuelle de silicium.LEpia (Association europenne de lin-dustrie photovoltaque), qui sappuiesur les quantits de silicium dispo-nibles, juge plus raisonnable dvaluerla production mondiale 1400 MWc,soit une croissance de lordre de 15 %de la production. Cette diffrence entreles chiffres dinstallation et ceux de pro-duction peut sexpliquer en partie parla sous-valuation de certains marchs

mais galement par la volont de cer-tains industriels de gonfler leur chiffrede production afin de revendiquerdavantage de parts de march. En effet,le contexte actuel de pnurie de sili-

cium, qui devrait perdurer jusquen2008, va entraner invitablement unerestructuration importante de la filireau bnfice des entreprises les plussolides qui auront su consolider leurpart de march. On le constate dj,seuls les plus importants ont russi augmenter leur production en garan-tissant leur approvisionnement de sili-cium et en signant, par exemple, descontrats de plusieurs annes avec leursfournisseurs. Les industriels qui vou-dront tenir leur rang vont donc tre

amens investir encore plus. On peutdonc sattendre dans les deux pro-chaines annes des rachats ou desfusions-acquisitions dentreprises.

Un essor aux quatre coinsdu monde

Une autre tendance de lindustriephotovoltaque est sa croissance soute-nue sur ses quatre principales zones deproduction, savoir lEurope, les tats-Unis, le Japon et la Chine(graphique 3).Le Japon a renforc son rang de premierproducteur mondial (833 MWc, soit

(57.4%), its importance can appear as surprising takingthe current shortage of silicon into consideration. The EPIA(European Photovoltaic Industry Association), which backsits figures up on available quantities of silicon, judges itmore reasonable to evaluate world-wide production at1 400 MWp, i.e. production growth of the order of 15%.This difference between installation and production figurescan be partially explained by the undervaluation of certainmarkets as well as by the desire of certain industrialists toinflate their production figures so as to claim larger mar-ket shares. The current context of a shortage in silicon sup-plies, which should last until 2008, is going to lead inevi-tably to significant sector restructuring that will benefit themost solid companies that were able to consolidate theirmarket shares. This can already be seen with only the big-gest firms having succeeded in increasing their produc-tion by guaranteeing their silicon supplies and by signing,for example, contracts for several years to come with theirsuppliers. Industrialists that are going to want to hold onto their market positions are thus going to be pushed toinvest even more. We can therefore expect to see furtherbuyouts or merger acquisitions of different companies inthe next two years.

Rapid expansion at four corners of the world

Another photovoltaic industry trend is its sustained andsteady growth on all of the four main production zones Europe, USA, Japan and China (graph 3) . Among them,Japan has reinforced its position of leading world produ-cer (833 MWp, i.e. 48.2% of world production) thanks toproduction that increased by 38.4%. However, the greatergrowth of the other regions of the world caused Japan tolose 2.1 points of world market share. European photo-voltaic industry progression, bolstered by the German mar-ket, was even bigger (+ 43.9%), making it possible forEurope to maintain its share of world production at26.2% (26.3% in 2004). But the most significant evolutionis unquestionably that of the Chinese photovoltaic indus-try (including Taiwan). According to PV News, 200 MWpcame out of the Chinese and Taiwanese factories (11.6%of world production), i.e. nearly tripling production in asingle year (+ 186% with respect to 2004)! These figures if they are verified would make China the third biggestregion for production in the world ahead of the USA,which only produced 153 MWp (+ 10.1% with respect to2004), i.e. 8.9% of world production.

48,2 % de la production mondiale)grce une production en hausse de38,4 %. Cependant, la croissance plusimportante dautres rgions du mondea fait perdre au Japon 2,1 points de part

de march mondial. En effet, la pro-gression de lindustrie europenne, sou-tenue par le march allemand, a tplus importante (+ 43,9%), permettant lEurope de maintenir sa part dans laproduction mondiale 26,2 % (26,3%en 2004). Mais lvolution la plus signi-ficative est indniablement celle de lin-dustrie chinoise (Tawan inclus). SelonPV News, 200 MWc seraient sortis desusines chinoises et tawanaises (11,6 %de la production mondiale), soit pres-que un triplement de la production en

une seule anne (+ 186 % par rapport 2004)! Ces chiffres sils taient vri-fis feraient de la Chine la 3e grandergion de production devant les tats-Unis, qui nont produit que 153 MWc(+ 10,1 % par rapport 2004), soit8,9 % de la production mondiale.

Quatre Japonaisdans les cinq premiers

Le classement 2005 des principauxindustriels producteurs de cellules(tableau4)est reprsentatif des grandeszones de production de cellules. Le

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Japon

48,2 %(833 MWc)

Europe

26,2 %(452 MWc)

Chine et TawanChina and Tawan11,6 %(200 MWc)

tats-UnisUnited-States8,9 %(153 MWc)

Reste du mondeRest of the World5,2 %(89 MWc)

Europe Japan

RPARTITION GOGRAPHIQUE DE LA PRODUCTION DE CELLULES PHOTOVOLTAQUES EN 2005GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION OF PV CELLS PRODUCTION IN 2005

G3

Japon aligne dsormais quatre indus-triels parmi les cinq premiers, soit unde plus quen 2004 avec la monte deSanyo de la 7e la 4e place, qui rejointSharp (1er), Kyocera (3e) et Mitsubishi

(5e

). La stratgie de ces quatre entre-prises, qui reprsentent lessentiel dela production japonaise (95 %), estsimple: conqurir des parts de march linternational. Elles se positionnentsur les marchs fortes potentialitsde croissance, comme lEurope, lestats-Unis et la Chine, et continuentdinvestir massivement. Elles aug-mentent leur capacit de productionpour dcourager la concurrence, fai-sant fi de la pnurie de silicium,et construisent des usines de produc-

tion de modules ltranger capablesdalimenter les marchs convoits.Chef de file des industriels japonais,Sharp a acclr son avance avec uneaugmentation de sa production de cel-

lules cristallines dans son usine de Kat-sugari de 104 MWc en 2005, soit untotal de 428 MWc (+32,1 % par rapport 2004). Lindustriel, trs confiant surla croissance europenne, a dcid ennovembre dernier de porter sa capacitde production de cellules 500 MWc,soit 85 MWc supplmentaires, en ajou-tant une dixime ligne de production.La compagnie, qui dispose galementde deux usines de production demodules Wrexham au Pays de Galleset Memphis, aux tats-Unis, a investi

Four Japanese producers among top five

The 2005 ranking of the main industrial cell producers(table 4) is representative of the principal cell productionzones. Japan now lines up 4 industrialists among the topfive, i.e. one more than in 2004 with Sanyos rise from7th place to 4 th place, joining Sharp (1 st), Kyocera (3rd) andMitsubishi (5 th). The strategy of these four companies,which represent the bulk of Japanese production (95%), issimple: conquer international market shares. They havepositioned themselves on those markets having stronggrowth potential like Europe, USA and China and are conti-nuing to invest heavily. They are increasing their produc-tion capacities to discourage competition, flouting the sili-con supply shortage and building foreign moduleproduction plants capable of supplying coveted markets.The dominant Japanese industrialist, Sharp has acceleratedits advance even further with a 104 MWp increase in crys-talline cell production in its Katsugari plant in 2005, i.e. atotal of 428 MWp (+ 32.1% with respect to 2004). Sharp,which feels very confident on European growth, decided lastNovember to raise its cell production capacity to 500 MWp,

i.e. a supplementary 85 MWp by adding a second produc-tion line. The company, which also has two other moduleproduction factories in Wrexham (Wales) and Memphis(USA), invested $34 millions in this extension. Sharp is theonly company world-wide to generate turnover of more than$1 billion for its solar activity. Kyocera lost one place in theworld ranking in spite of a 37 MWp increase in its produc-tion. The firm, which is now ranked third with a productionof 142 MWp, inaugurated its new module production fac-tory at the end of 2005 in the Czech Republic. This plantsproduction capacity is planned at 24 MWp for 2006. Thisfactory, which is chiefly intended for the German and Euro-pean markets, is added to the other two fabrication unitsthat the Japanese company already has in China and Mexico(intended for the North American market). Sanyo Electricsstrategy is similar to that of its Japanese rivals. In answerto sustained and buoyant market growth, the firm hasincreased its module production to 125 MWp, i.e. practi-cally doubling its production (+ 92.3%) with respect to2004. Sanyos production capacity rose to 153 MWp in 2005thanks to new investments in its Japanese plants in Shi-mane and Nishikinohama and should therefore reach

34 M$ dans cette extension. Sharp estla seule compagnie mondiale gn-rer un chiffre daffaires de plusd1 Md$ dans son activit solaire. Kyo-cera a perdu une place dans le classe-

ment mondial, malgr une augmen-tation de sa production de 37 MWc.Lentreprise, qui est dsormais 3e avecune production de 142 MWc, a inau-gur fin 2005 sa nouvelle usine de pro-duction de modules en Rpubliquetchque dont la capacit de productionprvue est de 24 MWc en 2006. Cetteusine, qui sera principalement desti-ne aux marchs europen et alle-mand, sajoute aux deux units de fabri-cation de lentreprise japonaise enChine et au Mexique (pour le march

Source : PV News March 2006

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nord-amricain). La stratgie de SanyoElectric est similaire celle de sesrivaux japonais. En rponse la crois-sance soutenue du march, lentreprisea port sa production de module

125 MWc, soit un quasi-doublement desa production (+ 92,3 %) par rapport 2004. La capacit de production deSanyo, quant elle, a t porte en2005 153 MWc grce de nouveauxinvestissements dans ses usines japo-naises de Shimane et de Nishikino-hama et devrait donc atteindre les190 MWc cette anne. Lentreprise apar ailleurs inaugur en juin derniersa nouvelle usine de production demodules HIT (technologie combinantsilicium amorphe et silicium cristal-

lin) qui est situe Dorog, prs deBudapest, en Hongrie. Mitsubishi, qui

that leave the market and extension or creation of new pro-duction units in Europe and abroad. Last year, Q-Cells wasthe only European company able to keep up with the growthrate imposed by Sharp. The German firm produced 85 MWpmore than in 2005, which permitted it to reach second placeworld-wide with a production of 160 MWp. Turnover morethan doubled because of this growth, going from 130 mil-lions in 2004 up to 299.5 millions in 2005. At the start of 2005, Q-Cells created a joint venture with the American com-pany Evergreen Solar called EverQ with the aim of develo-ping a 30 MWp cell and module production unit using theString RibbonTM technology developed by Evergreen Solar.The principal interest of this technology is that it consumes30% less silicon. Last November, the largest independentmanufacturer of silicon and polycrystalline wafers, the Nor-wegian firm REC (Renewable Energy Corporation), joined in

190 MWp this year. Moreover, the company inauguratedits new HIT (technology combining amorphous and crys-talline silicon) module production plant located near Buda-pest, in Dorog, in Hungary last June. Mitsubishi, which lostone place in the ranking with a production of 100 MWp(+ 25 MWp with respect to 2004), has the intention of reac-ting by bringing production capacity up to 250 MWp thisyear vs. 135 MWp in 2005.

European photovoltaic industry answers "present"

The European industrialists, which seem to have sufferedmore from the silicon shortage than their Japanese rivalshave, are preparing their response. Different strategies canbe seen among the European actors, like creation of jointventures, acquisition of the production units of competitors

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LES 12 PREMIERS FABRICANTS DE CELLULES PHOTOVOLTAQUES (EN MWC)TOP 12 MANUFACTURERS OF PV CELLS (IN MWP)

T4

a perdu une place dans le classementavec une production de 100 MWc(+ 25 MWc par rapport 2004) a lin-tention de ragir en portant cetteanne sa capacit de production

250 MWc contre 135 MWc en 2005.Lindustrie europennerpond prsente

Les industriels europens, qui ontdavantage souffert de la pnurie de sili-cium que leurs rivaux japonais, prpa-rent leurs rponses. On observe diff-rentes stratgies parmi les acteurseuropens comme la cration de filialescommunes, lacquisition dunits deproduction de concurrents qui se dsen-

gagent, lextension ou la cration denouvelles units de production en

Europe et ltranger. Lan dernier,Q-Cells a t le seul Europen pouvoirsuivre le rythme de croissance impospar Sharp. Lentreprise allemande a eneffet produit 85 MWc de plus quen

2005, ce qui lui a permis datteindre ladeuxime place mondiale avec une pro-duction de 160 MWc. Cette croissancea fait plus que doubler son chiffre daf-faires, le faisant passer de 130 M en2004 299,5 M en 2005. Au dbut delanne 2005, Q-Cells avait cr unefiliale commune avec lentreprise am-ricaine Evergreen Solar, nommeEverQ, dans le but de dvelopper uneunit de production de cellules et demodules de 30 MWc utilisant la tech-nologie String RibbonTMdveloppe par

Evergreen Solar. Cette technologie acomme principal intrt de consom-

Entreprises/ 2004 2005 Croissance en %/ Part de march 2005/Companies Growth in % Market shareSharp 324,0 428,0 32,1 % 24,8 %Q-Cells 75,0 160,0 113,3 % 9,3 %Kyocera 105,0 142,0 35,2 % 8,2 %Sanyo 65,0 125,0 92,3 % 7,2 %Mitsubishi 75,0 100,0 33,3 % 5,8 %Schott Solar 63,0 95,0 50,8 % 5,5 %BP Solar 85,0 90,0 5,9 % 5,2 %Suntech 28,0 80,0 185,7 % 4,6 %Motech 35,0 60,0 71,4 % 3,5 %Shell Solar 72,0 59,0 -18,1 % 3,4 %Isofotn 53,0 53,0 0,0 % 3,1 %Deutsche Cell 28,0 38,0 35,7 % 2,2 %Autres industriels/Other industrials 187,0 297,0 58,8 % 17,2 %Total 1 195,0 1 727,0 44,5 % 100,0 %Source : PV News March 2006

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and should reach 210 MWp at the end of this year. This exten-sion will be mainly achieved through a sizeable increase inits production capacities in Spain (Madrid), as well as on itsother production sites located in the USA (Frederick), Aus-tralia (Sydney) and India (Bangalore).While BP Solar made the choice to remain an importantactor in the photovoltaic sector, Shell Solar chose the oppo-site direction by partially pulling out of the sector (73 MWpproduced in 2003, 72 MWp in 2004 and 59 MWp in 2005).The company finally decided last February to sell all of itscrystalline solar activity (production of cylinders, wafers, cellsand modules) to the German group Solarworld (i.e. 80 MWpproduction capacity). The Solarworld Group was already pre-sent on the cell production market inside the Deutsche Cellcompany, the 12 th biggest producer world-wide with a pro-duction of 40 MWp in 2005. The German group, which isvery vertically integrated, is also present on the wafer pro-duction market with Deutsche Solar and on the module pro-duction market with Solar Factory. This agreement with ShellSolar makes it possible for Solarworld to become the big-gest producer of photovoltaic solar technology in the USAand virtually become the sixth biggest cell producer in theworld. The groups provisional figures show a sales volumeof 355 millions (199 millions in 2004) and profit of 52 mil-lions. Shell Solar is not leaving the sector entirely since it will

this operation. Its arrival made it possible for EverQ tosecure its silicon supply. Evergreen will hold 64% of theshares of the joint venture, Q-Cells 21% and REC will havethe remaining 15%.The process went in the opposite direction for the ex-RWESchott Solar. Last October, Schott took over the remaininghalf of the companys shares that were held by RWE Solu-tions. The entity, which now belongs completely to Schott,has taken on the new name of Schott Solar. RWE Schott Solarhad previously been able to react to the strong increase indemand by increasing the production capacity of its Germanfactory in Alzenau (111 MWp in 2005 vs. 45 MWp in 2004)and of its American factory in Billerica (13 MWp in 2005 vs.10 MWp in 2004). Last June, the firm also inaugurated anew 40 MWp capacity module production unit in the CzechRepublic. In the end, Schott Solar showed 90 MWp pro-duction (+ 32 MWp with respect to 2004) making it pos-sible for the firm to reach 6 th place in world ranking (threeplaces higher than in 2004) and show 284 millions turnover in 2005 (15% growth with respect to 2004).Another important actor, BP Solar only increased its photo-voltaic cell production by 5 MWp in 2005, i.e. a total of 90 MWp. This stagnation caused the company to drop fromthird place to seventh place in world ranking. This oil groupsubsidiary should react by doubling its production capacity

mer 30 % de silicium en moins. Ennovembre2005, le plus grand fabricantindpendant de silicium et de waferspolycristallins, le Norvgien REC(Renewable Energy Corporation), sest

joint lopration. Son arrive per-mettra EverQ de scuriser son appro-visionnement en silicium. Evergreendisposera de 64 % des parts de la filialecommune, Q-Cells de 21 %, REC pos-sdant les 15 % restantes.Le processus a t inverse pour lex-RWE Schott Solar. Schott a en effet prisle contrle, en octobre dernier, de lamoiti des parts de lentreprise dte-nues par RWE Solutions. Lentit, quiappartient dsormais en totalit Schott, a pris le nom de Schott Solar.

RWE Schott Solar avait auparavant suragir la forte augmentation de lademande en accroissant la capacit deproduction de ses usines allemandedAlzenau (111 MWc en 2005 contre45 MWc en 2004) et amricaine deBillerica (13 MWc en 2005 contre10 MWc en 2004). Lentreprise a ga-lement inaugur en juin dernier unenouvelle unit de production de mo-


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dules en Rpublique tchque dunecapacit de 40MWc. Schott Solar a affi-ch une production de 95 MWc(+ 32 MWc par rapport 2004) lui per-mettant daccder au 6e rang dans la

hirarchie mondiale (plus trois placescompar 2004) et dafficher un chiffredaffaires de 284 M en 2005 (unecroissance de 15% par rapport 2004).Autre acteur important, BP Solar naaugment sa production de cellulesphotovoltaques que de 5 MWc en2005, soit un total de 90 MWc. Cettestagnation a fait chuter lentreprise dutroisime au 7e rang mondial. La filialedu groupe ptrolier devrait ragir endoublant sa capacit de production quidevrait atteindre 210 MWc la fin de

cette anne. Cette extension se feraprincipalement par une augmentationimportante de sa capacit de produc-tion en Espagne (Madrid), mais gale-ment dans ses autres sites situs auxtats-Unis (Frederick), en Australie(Sydney) et en Inde (Bangalor).Si BP Solar a dcid de rester un grandacteur du photovoltaque, Shell Solar afait le choix inverse en se dsengageant

partiellement de la filire (73 MWc pro-duits en 2003, 72 MWc en 2004 et59 MWc en 2005). Lentreprise a fina-lement dcid, en fvrier 2006, devendre lensemble de son activit

solaire cristalline (production de lin-gots, de wafers, cellules et modules) augroupe allemand Solarworld (soit unecapacit de production de 80 MWc). Legroupe Solarworld tait dj prsentsur le march de la production de cel-lules avec en son sein lentrepriseDeutsche Cell, 12eproducteur mondialavec 40 MWc en 2005. Le groupe alle-mand, trs intgr verticalement, estgalement prsent sur le march de laproduction de wafers avec DeutscheSolar et sur le march de la production

de modules avec Solar Factory. Cetaccord avec Shell Solar permet Solar-world de devenir le plus grand pro-ducteur de technologie solaire photo-voltaque des tats-Unis et dtrevirtuellement le 6e producteur mondialde cellules. Les chiffres prvisionnelsdu groupe font tat dun volume devente de 355 M (199 M en 2004) etdun bnfice de 52 M. Shell Solar ne

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rican firm, Hemlock, the biggest silicon producer, whichlast year announced that it is doubling productioncapacity by January 2008 (between 7 000 and 7 500 addi-tional tons corresponding to 625 MWp cell capacity). TheGerman company, Wacker Chemie, is also planning ona 3 500 tons extension of its capacities (for a total of 9000 tons) for this same date. These extensions have reas-sured the photovoltaic industry which, in turn, answeredby heavily investing in new production capacities that arein phase with an ever bigger demand. Nevertheless, thisincrease in demand remains dependent on the politicalwill to develop this market at the national level. In Ger-many, the purchase price guaranteed until 2007 shouldmake it possible to continue to maintain installations at avery high level and, taking the investments made by theGerman industry into consideration, it is more and moreprobable that an incentive system will be renewed afterthis. The Italian decision is good news because its goingto make it possible to structure the sector, and, if policiescontinue to follow in this direction, to create a big new mar-ket. The situation is also very favourable in Spain, whichalso has the advantage of being able to rely on the secondbiggest European photovoltaic industry with the presenceof industrialists like BP Solar and Isofotn. In France, thesituation should become a bit more comfortable begin-

hold on to its CIS (Copper Indium Selenium) thin-layeractivity. It even plans on developing it further. An agree-ment with Saint Gobain commits it to building a 20 MWpfactory somewhere in Europe.The industrial reorganisation begun by the European pho-tovoltaic industry also coincides with the arrival in force of Chinese (and Taiwanese) industrialists among the top10 cell producers. According to PV News, Suntech will havepractically tripled its production in 2005 (80 MWp in 2005vs. 28 MWp in 2004) and Motech more than doubled itsproduction (60 MWp in 2005 vs. 35 MWp) relegating Iso-fotn to 11th place. The Spanish firm, whose productionremained stable at 53 MWp in 2005, plans to react by rai-sing its production capacity to 120 MWp at the end of thisyear. The firm which has the advantage of being on a mar-ket with high growth prospects, announced turnover of 150 millions and 25% growth with respect to 2004.

PROSPECTS FOR 2010 DEPEND ON POLICIESThe prospects for photovoltaic market growth are still asgood as ever. The silicon producers have finally respondedto photovoltaic industry expectations by announcing newproduction capacities. This is especially true for the Ame-

se dsengage pas totalement de lafilire puisquil conservera son activitde couches minces CIS (Cuivre In-dium Slnium). Il prvoit mme de ladvelopper. Un accord avec Saint-

Gobain lengage dans la constructiondune usine de 20 MWc en Europe.La rorganisation industrielle amorcepar lindustrie europenne concidegalement avec larrive en force desindustriels chinois (et tawanais) dansle classement des dix premiers pro-ducteurs de cellules. SelonPV News,Suntech aurait pratiquement tripl saproduction en 2005 (80 MWc en 2005contre 28 MWc en 2004) et Motechplus que doubl sa production(60 MWc en 2005 contre 35 MWc),

relguant Isofotn la 11e

place. Len-treprise espagnole, dont la productionest reste stable 53 MWc en 2005, aprvu de ragir en portant sa capacitde production 120 MWc la fin decette anne. Lentreprise, qui a lavan-tage de se trouver sur un march avecde fortes perspectives de croissance, aannonc un chiffre daffaires de 150 Men hausse de 25% par rapport 2004.

DES PERSPECTIVES 2010DPENDANTES DES POLITIQUES

Les perspectives de croissance du

march photovoltaque sont toujoursaussi intressantes. En effet, les pro-ducteurs de silicium ont enfin r-pondu lattente de lindustrie pho-tovoltaque en annonant de nouvellescapacits de production. Cest notam-ment le cas de lAmricain Hemlock,le plus grand producteur de silicium,qui a annonc en 2005 le doublementde sa capacit de production dici jan-vier 2008 (entre 7000 et 7500 tonnessupplmentaires correspondant unepuissance de 625 MWc de cellules).

LAllemand Wacker Chemie a gale-ment prvu une extension de ses ca-pacits de 3500 tonnes (9000 tonnesau total) ce mme horizon. Cesextensions ont rassur lindustrie pho-tovoltaque qui a rpondu en investis-sant massivement dans de nouvellescapacits de production, en phase avecune demande toujours plus impor-tante. Cette augmentation de la de-

mande reste nanmoins tributaire dela volont politique de dvelopper cemarch au niveau national. En Alle-magne, le tarif dachat garanti jusquen2007 devrait permettre de maintenir

encore un nombre trs important dins-tallations et il est de plus en plus pro-bable, compte tenu des investissementsde lindustrie allemande, quun systmeincitatif soit reconduit par la suite. Ladcision italienne est une bonne nou-velle car elle va permettre de structurerla filire, et, si les politiques continuentde suivre, de crer un nouveau grandmarch. La situation est galement trsfavorable en Espagne, qui a galementlavantage de pouvoir sappuyer sur la2e industrie photovoltaque europenne

avec la prsence sur son territoire din-dustriels comme BP Solar et Isofotn.En France, la situation sera un peu plusconfortable partir de cette anne.Cependant, laugmentation des prixdes modules engendre par la pnuriede silicium pourrait encore retarderle dveloppement de ce march.Limportance du march allemand, lar-gement sous-value en 2004, et la

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ning this year. However, the increase in the price of modules caused by the silicon shortage could again delaythis markets development.The importance of the German market, largely underesti-mated in 2004, as well as the securing of the Italian andSpanish markets have led us once again to re-evaluate ourforecast for the year 2010 with 6000 MWp (graph 4) . Thisestimate is based on the German market conserving itslevel in the vicinity of 600 MWp a year and on Italian andSpanish goals being achieved. EPIA even estimates that if policies continue to support the photovoltaic sector, theEU could reach 7000 MWp at that date.Photovoltaic market evolution will therefore continue tobe dependent upon political/policy decisions in the yearsto come. But to justify this support, the sector industria-lists shall have to show their ability to reduce productioncosts. The objective is to come as close as possible to thecost of a fossil kilowatt-hour and thats a price thatsconstantly increasing.

Ce baromtre a t ralis par ObservER dans le cadre duprojet EurObservER regroupant ObservER, Eurec Agency,Erec, Jozef Stefan Institute, Eufores, avec le soutienfinancier de lAdeme et de la DG Tren(programme nergie Intelligente-Europe).Le contenu de cette publication nengage quela responsabilit de son auteur et ne reprsente paslopinion de la Communaut europenne. La Commissioneuropenne nest pas responsable de lusage quipourrait tre fait des informations qui y figurent.

This barometer was prepared by ObservER in the scope of the EurObservER Project which groups togetherObservER, Eurec Agency, Erec, Jozef Stefan Institute, Eufores,with the financial support of the Ademeand DG Tren (Intelligent Energy-Europe programme).The sole responsibility for the content of this publicationlies with the authors. It does not represent the opinionof the European Communities. The European Commissionis not responsible for any use that may be madeof the information contained therein.

LE PROCHAIN BAROMTRE TRAITERADES FILIRES BIOGAZ ET BIOCARBURANTSNEXT BAROMETER WILL BEABOUT BIOGAS AND BIOFUELS

Sources : UVS, NOVEM, IDAE, CESI, ILR, Cegedel,

ADEME, Arsenal Research, IT Power, Helapco, ng-

strm Solar Center, EDP, PA Energy, 3E, Ministry

of Industry and Trade (Czech Republic), EC BREC,

Associat ion for promoting renewable energy

sources (Cyprus), SEI, Slovak Universi ty of

Technology, Malta Ressources Authority, Latvian

Academy of Sciences, Tall inn Technical

University, AIE PVPS.

COMPARAISON DE LATENDANCE ACTUELLE AVECLES OBJECTIFS DU LIVREBLANC (EN MWC)COMPARISON OF THE PRESENT TREND WITH THE WHITE PAPER OBJECTIVES (IN MWP) EurObservER 2006

G4

scurisation des marchs italien etespagnol nous conduit une nouvellefois rvaluer notre projection pourlanne 2010 avec 6000 MWc(gra-phique 4). Cette estimation se base sur

un maintien du march allemand auxenvirons de 600MWc par an et sur laralisation des objectifs italien et espa-gnol. LEpia estime mme que si lespolitiques continuent soutenir lafilire, lUnion europenne pourraitatteindre les 7000 MWc cet horizon.Pour les annes venir, lvolution dumarch photovoltaque dpendra donctoujours de dcisions politiques. Maispour justifier ce soutien, les industrielsde la filire devront montrer leur capa-cit rduire leurs cots de production.

Lobjectif est de se rapprocher le pluspossible du cot du kilowattheure fos-sile, qui lui ne cesse daugmenter.

392650

1 148

1 7942 000

1 000

0

5 000

6 000

4 000

3 000

2 0 0 2

2 0 0 3

2 0 0 4

2 0 0 5

2 0 1 0

603

3 000

6 000


b a r o m e t e r

68 EurObservER

Livre blanc/White paper

Tendance actuelle/ Current trend

Barometer [2006]

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