POLITICAL BAROMETER

POLITICAL BAROMETERA Study of Socio-Political Preferences of People of Pakistan

BackgroundFirst civilian government completing its term

Chief Election Commissioner appointed through parliamentary consensus for the first time in the countrys history

Caretaker government to be decided in consultation instead of being chosen by the president

The Political Barometer SurveyCovers a wide range of socio-political indicators

Conducted across broad sections of the society

Rapid assessment around 1,300 respondents in 52 districts, reflecting on issues like electoral reform, governance, security, interprovincial relations, arts and culture, civil rights, and foreign policy

Strata take account of ethno-linguistic lines instead of the traditional provincial demarcationSamplingDemographic sample based on the population census of the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics

Stratified SamplingEthno-linguisticGenderUrban/RuralAgeIncomeEducational qualificationQuestionnaire, interviews, and challengesBoth open-ended as well as close-ended questions to minimize biases

Conducted in 52 districts across Balochistan, FATA, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Punjab, and Sindh

Occasional reluctance and difficulty by respondents to respond to a few questions

The data was verified through randomly contacting reluctant respondants

Respondents understanding of technical terms like MFNIssuesElectoral ProcessWhich party is the most transparent while contesting elections? 7Which party is the least transparent while contesting elections? 8Will you vote in the upcoming elections even if you feel that the electoral system and process is rigged? 9CorruptionWhich political party, in your opinion, is the most corrupt? 10Which political party, if it comes into power, can reduce or end corruption? 11Will your decision be based on levels of corruption within a political party? 12Foreign PolicyDo you think Pakistan should have a strong strategic alliance with the United States? 13Are drone attacks an infringement on Pakistan's sovereignty? 14Does Pakistan require foreign aid? 15Relations with neighborsWould you vote for a party that 16Should Pakistan actively promote a government favourable to its own interests in Afghanistan? 17Which party will handle Pakistan's foreign affairs in the best possible manner? 18Internal SecurityThe government's engagement with Taliban should focus on 19Which party can best counter religious violence? 20Which party can best counter secterain violence? 21Political EconomyWhat are the biggest economic issues facing Pakistan today? 22Pressing issues based on education levelsHigher Levels of EducationLower Levels of EducationExtremismPolitical instabilityInterprovincial problemsInflationGender discriminationFood shortagesWhich sectors should Pakistan increase its expenditure in? 24Which sectors should Pakistan reduce its expenditure in? 25Which party will be the most effective in addressing Pakistan's economic problems? 26Provincial MattersPakistan's interprovincial relations are 27Do you support the creation of new provinces? 28Do you think power is distributed equitably between all provinces? 29Do you think food is distributed equitably in all provinces? 30Which party, were it to win, would be the most effective in addressing the problems of your province? 31Civil-military relationsThe most powerful institution in Pakistan is 32WomenWhat should be the government's policy be on women contesting elections? 33What should the government's policy on women wearing the veil/hijab/niqab be whey they step outside their homes? 34What should the government's policy be on women working alongside men in workplaces? 35Who should be given preference in education? 36What should the government's policy be co-education in Pakistan? 37Should women have the right to divorce? 38What is your opinion on domestic violence? 39What is your opinion on honour killings? 40Which culture and lifestyle issues will affect your decision to vote for a political party? 41MinoritiesDo you think non-Muslims should have rights equal to the rights of Muslims in Pakistan? 42Do you think non-Muslims should have freedom to practice their religion in Pakistan? 43Should there be a separate voters list for minorities in Pakistan? 44Do you think Pakistan's blasphemy laws are justly and fairly applied? 45Voting trends*Does not include respondents who selected no partyPTI poses tough competition in the 18-35 age bracket36-50 years = PPP51-70=N and PPP equal70+=PML-N46Party support across different ethnicitiesSindhi = PPPSeraiki =PPPPunjabi & Hindko= PML-NPakhtun = ANP LOSES TO PTIPakhtun & Hindko = PTI47Voting trends vis--vis voting historyVote bank for PML-N Stagnant

Vote bank for PPP Declined

Vote bank for PTI Stronger urban base

PPPRoughly one-third of the respondents earning below Rs. 30,000 indicate a preference for PPPReinforces the pro-poor image of the partySupport from those earning over Rs. 30,000 dropped to 10.8%

PML-NSupport appears similar across all income groups

PTI33% of those earning over Rs. 250,000 intend to vote for the party

MQM33% of those earning over Rs. 250,000 intend to vote for the partyOnly 4% of those earning between Rs. 100,000 and 250,000 expressed intention to vote for the partyBelow 100K

Support for smaller parties appears to weaken as income level rises

PTI eroding PPP votebankBISP 51The 5 ScenariosScenario 1IF: Electoral alliance between PPP and its current allies, ANP, MQM, and PML-QAnti-PPP alliance at the same time: PML-N, JUI, JI, minus PTI

THEN: PPP and alliance may capture 38.1% of the voteAnti-PPP alliance, minus PTI, may secure 29.5%Together with the PTI, the anti-PPP alliance may give a tougher time to PPP

IF:PPP partners with current allies ANP and PML-QMQM opts for the anti-PPP alliance; PTI decides not to be part of either

THEN:PPP and allies secure 33.9% of the votesOpposition alliance secures 33.7% of the votesWeaker government against a stronger opposition

Option 1:PML-N led govt.: PPP and PTI form oppositionOption 2:PPP led govt.: PML-N and PTI form oppositionScenario 2IF:Electoral alliance between PPP and current allies ANP, MQM, and PML-QOpposing alliance between PML-N and PTI

THEN:PML-N and PTI jointly sweep through, capturing 45.0% of the votes relatively stable govt. at the centreAnti-PPP parties may also join inScenario 3IF:Electoral alliance between PPP and PTIPML-N led strong opposing alliance

THEN:PPP and PTI secure 49.3% of the votes stable govt. at the centre

Scenario 4IF:PPP-led coalition with current alliesPTI and JI partner for an alliancePML-N led alliance with JUI and other anti-PPP parties

THEN:PPP and allies secure 38.1% of the votesPTI and JI alliance secures 23.9%PML-N led alliance secures 25.9%Scenario 5What is expectedScenarios 3 and 4 unlikely

Elections unlikely to be dominated by a single political party

PPP may have to continue with its current alliance

An emerging PTI

Likelihood of a strong opposition high

Electorate divided over crucial issues

Thank youwww.sdpi.org, www.sdpi.tv