Understanding Community Vulnerability & Adaptation

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Transcript of Understanding Community Vulnerability & Adaptation

Assessing and Understanding Community Vulnerability

Understanding Community Vulnerability & AdaptationCommunity Vulnerability and AdaptationMeasuring and mapping vulnerabilityCombined indicatorsRisk/stress mappingSpatial intersection/interactionExamining adaptation strategiesContingent behaviorVulnerability: Existing StudiesAgreement on idea but variety of frameworksCommon approachAggregate measure (at community level)A bundle of indicators (Cutter Model)Demographic, economic, ethnic, political, cultural etc.Common analysis tools: Factor extraction, cluster analysis etc.

Vulnerability and Intervention Mapping:ESDA ApproachMeasurement is not enoughIts about understandingWhere are the hotspots?Are we serving the communities in need?Where should we prioritize our efforts first?

Spatial non-stationarity: VPM modelWUI vs. rural (affluent vs. poor)

Issues with existing measuresToo general:Vulnerable to what?Weather station record vs. perceived effectAssumption of homogenous effect:Does poverty always necessarily translate to vulnerability?Do income and ethnicity have the same marginal effect?Can not establish causation:little policy implicationPoor predictive powerUnit issue:Areal unit (neighborhood) vs. social unit (i.e., fishermen)Need for a specific/robust function of vulnerabilitySpecific (to hazard in context):Vulnerability (drought, heat etc.)DDs vs. avg. temp.Weighted (for vulnerability factors):Lit. review (significance, effect size etc.)V = f(p1.X1+p2.X2+p3.X3+.pn.Xn)

Comprehensive yet flexible:Intervention variable

Example caseBroad context: Climate changeSpecific context: vulnerability to heat effectHeat waves, illness, death tollsSocio-income factorsResources (AC, housing condition etc.)Intervention variables (i.e., neighborhood canopy coverage)Policy question:Will an investment in urban/community forestry programs result in reducing the vulnerability?Could a roadside plantation bring a larger benefit than subsidy for AC installation?Vulnerability and Adaptation:survey based approachChange in resource conditionKnowledge, perceptionContingent behaviorIVIHow important?Vulnerable?Impacted yet?Highly importantNot at all importantHighly vulnerableNot at all vulnerableNot at all affectedSlightly affectedExample context: Heat effect

Highly importantNot at all importantHighly vulnerableNot at all vulnerableSlightly affectedHighly affectedExample context: Trout decline due to stream temp.

Assessing adaptationHow will people adapt to changeList of potential reactions/strategiesDecision treeContingent reactionProbability Contingent impactTrout decline in GA siteContinue fishing hereMove to other placesStop fishingContinue fishingFish for troutFish for non-troutOther places in GAOut of state (TN, NC, SC)For TroutFor non-troutMove to headwaterWait until water gets coolerSkip warmer months (July, Aug.)Make fewer tripsHuntingHikingBikingBird/nature viewingATVOutdoor team sportsGolfTarget shootingCanoeing/KayakingMotor boatingCampingUnderstanding Adaptation:Contingent Behavior ApproachUnderstanding Community Vulnerability & Adaptation