NOAA CLIMAS NASA EOS NSF SAHRA NOAA GAPP Considering Equity in Climate Prediction Applications:...
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Transcript of NOAA CLIMAS NASA EOS NSF SAHRA NOAA GAPP Considering Equity in Climate Prediction Applications:...
NOAA CLIMAS
NASA EOS
NSF SAHRANOAA GAPP
Considering Equity in Climate Prediction Applications: Implications for Development and
Evaluation of Decision Support Tools
1Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, University of Arizona2Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California-Irvine
Holly Hartmann1 and Soroosh Sorooshian2
NASA HyDIS
Raytheon Synergy
Calls for Societally Relevant Research and ProductsCalls for Societally Relevant Research and Products
• Information is appropriate to the knowledge and concerns of the recipient.
• Ensure that.. modeling improvements and data products are useful to the water resources management community.
• Develop a strategy for… how these could be made more useful for [user] purposes.
• Need studies of the benefits and costs of [hydroclimatic] information services.
• Increase the value of weather and related … information to society.
• Bring scientific outputs and users’ needs together.
• Make climate forecasts more socially useful.
• Stronger sense of responsibility for delivering timely and relevant tools.
• Accelerate activities to integrate science with the needs of decision makers.
• Integrate user needs… and ensure that research results are provided in a form useful for users.
Sources: Various USGCRP and NRC reports, 1997-2001
Issue: So Many Stakeholders!Issue: So Many Stakeholders!
Continental Scale: Focus of modelers
Watershed/Local Scale: Where impacts happen Where stakeholders exist
Different Scales (time & space)Different IssuesDifferent Stakeholders
Poor interactions with users affects:• opportunities for future work• credibility of agencies, institutions and products
“What are your motives?” (agenda)
“How long is your project really going to last?” (failed promises of past projects)
“What did you do with the last survey?” (checking your responsiveness)
Lessons from StakeholdersLessons from Stakeholders
Building Expectations and Trust
• Building trust requires repetition & responsiveness
• Concerns: agendas, science will be used to hurt them
• Effective stakeholder integration generate support for science funding & programs
• Changed decisions & decision processes
• Enabling system-wide change (transferability, scalability)
• Public support for climate research
Concerns for Climate Science Enterprise
Project Objectives Affect…
• Metrics
• Structure of stakeholder interactions
• Research products
• Perceptions of climate science enterprise
• Research funding
Evaluating Societally Relevant Research and ProductsEvaluating Societally Relevant Research and Products
Objective: Economic EfficiencyObjective: Economic Efficiency
Metrics: Cost/benefits. Return on Investment.
Stakeholder Interaction Structure: Consultant-client relationship with high-value clients (e.g., hydropower).
Research Products: Customized Decision Support Systems. System optimization rules.
Perceptions: Science serving special interests. Increasing competitive imbalances.
Research Funding: By clients through private sector.
Objective: Agency ImpactObjective: Agency Impact
Metrics: Policy and regulatory impact.
Stakeholder Interaction Structure: Work with agencies. Important role for policy analysts/scientists.
Research Products: Traditional products. Refereed methodology and results. Hold up in court.
Perceptions: Science serving special interests, agendas. Increasing regulatory burden.
Research Funding: By managed sector, perhaps public.
Objective: Societal EquityObjective: Societal Equity
Metrics: Breadth/diversity of applicability, accessibility, usability. Sectoral ‘market’ penetration.
Stakeholder Interaction Structure: Engagement with diversity of stakeholders. Important role for social scientists. Potentially huge demand on researchers’ time.
Research Products: Diverse. Non-traditional, but not “dumbed down”.
Note: data << information << knowledge << wisdom
Perceptions: Science providing useable information and practical tools. Increasing capacity to adapt to climate variability.
Research Funding: Public.
Evaluating Success of Products and ProcessEvaluating Success of Products and Process
???
PRODUCTS: Forecasts
- traditional publications
- MS/PhD degrees
- newsletter outreach
- database of forecasts
- forecast evaluation tool
- “Climate in a Nutshell” (450+)
- presentations to stakeholder groups (25+)
- workshops (research/forecast/stakeholder) (8+)
Southwest Climate in a Nutshell
Tom Pagano Department of Hydrology & Water Resources
J.W. Harshbarger Bldg Room 324K
University of Arizona, Tucson AZ 85721
[email protected] (520) 621-3973
Pho
to C
redi
t:Bri
an M
ayeu
x
Your Needs
What’s Potentially Predictable
Current Climate Forecasting Ability
Frequent interaction, from the outset
Interaction… not outreach! Getting and givingStarting where the stakeholders are
Moving dialogue & action forward
Common across all groups
Uninformed, mistaken about forecast interpretation
Understand implications of “normal” vs. “unknown” forecasts
Use of forecasts limited by lack of demonstrated forecast skill
Stakeholder Use of Hydroclimatic ForecastsStakeholder Use of Hydroclimatic Forecasts
Common across many, but not all, stakeholders
Have difficulty distinguishing between “good” & “bad” products
Have difficulty placing forecasts in historical context
Common across all groups
Uninformed, mistaken about forecast interpretation
Understand implications of “normal” vs. “unknown” forecasts
Use of forecasts limited by lack of demonstrated forecast skill
Stakeholder Use of Hydroclimatic ForecastsStakeholder Use of Hydroclimatic Forecasts
Unique among stakeholders
Relevant forecast variables, regions (location & scale), seasons, lead times, performance characteristics
Role of of forecasts in decision making
Technical sophistication: base probabilities, distributions, math
Common across many, but not all, stakeholders
Have difficulty distinguishing between “good” & “bad” products
Have difficulty placing forecasts in historical context
Efficiency
Work with hydropower agencies & other high-value clients
Develop customized evaluation tools
Transfer to agencies
Equity
Also work with stakeholders affected by changing supplies & policies
Develop tools for knowledge development and diverse decision processes
Requires on-going support of research products and tools
Impact
Work with regulatory & policy agencies
Inform water supply policy via peer-reviewed science & policy analysis
Forecast Assessment: CLIMAS AlternativesForecast Assessment: CLIMAS Alternatives
http://hydis6.hwr.arizona.edu/ForecastEvaluationTool/
Initially for NWS CPC climate forecasts
Six elements in our webtool:• Exploring Forecast Progression•Forecast Interpretation - Tutorials• Forecast Performance• Historical Context• Use in Decision Making • Details: Forecast Techniques, Research
1. Forecast Progression
Unknown
ECSometimes forecasters don’t know what the chances are…
EC - EQUAL CHANCES THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOST LIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE DETERMINED
= Unknown Chances!!
63%33%
3%
“+30% Chanceof Warm” Each colored
contour indicates a shift in the normal chances.
33%33%
33%
Climatology
Climatology is only a reference (1971-2000), not a substitute forecast
2. Forecast Tutorial
3. Forecast Performance Evaluation
Sub-setting: Seasons, Leadtimes, Regions
Criteria: Simple/Intuitive to Complex/Informative
Transparency: Data behind analysis
3. Forecast Performance Evaluation
Sub-setting: Seasons, Leadtimes, Regions
Criteria: Simple/Intuitive to Complex/Informative
Transparency: Data behind analysis
4. Historical Context for Forecasts
Recent History | Possible Futures
Requested by Fire managers…Applicable to any climate variable
20032002
Neutral Non-ENSO sequences
2004
La Nina
Wet Near- Dry
Normal
10 years had more than 3.7 inches10 years had less than 1.9 inches10 years were in the middle
Willcox Jan-March Total Precipitation 1930-2001
Year
Pre
cip
itati
on
(In
ch
es)
1971-2000
Willcox Jan-March Total Precip. 1971-2000
Dry
Norm
Wet
0”
1.9”
3.7”
8+”
Exceedance Probability
4. Historical Context for Forecasts
La NinaEl Nino
El Nino La Nina50% Wet 0%30% Norm 25%20% Dry 75%
Willcox, AZ: Precipitation, JFM
4. Historical Context for Forecasts
Custom real-time data access, analysis, and information
Value-added interpretation
Multiple entry points along continuum of sophistication
Opportunities and tools for increasing sophistication
Knowledge development emphasis vs. decision support
Data << Information << Knowledge << Wisdom
Are these concepts & tools transferable and scalable?
• Test with new products, inter-RISA opportunities
Lessons of FET for Climate Services
Other issues: Accessibility, ease of use (information management, updating)
Ease of Use Profile and Projects: save a history of your work on each "project", so you can return to your work any time, easily repeat past analyses using updated data.
Facilitating Information Intermediaries
Accessibility Report Generation
• create PDF reports of your analyses for non-Internet users
• automatically includes legends, data sourcing, contact information, caveats, explanations
• sections for user-customized comments
Future: Automated Updating & Additional Products: water supply forecasts, experimental climate forecasts, drought monitoring
Lessons Learned: Knowledge Development Tools
StakeholdersInformation
needs, understanding,
access Social ScienceEffective
communication
Natural Science
Forecast skill,interpretation
• Transferable, scalable tools are possible!
• Focus on knowledge development, not just data & information.
Lessons Learned: Knowledge Development Tools
StakeholdersInformation
needs, understanding,
access Social ScienceEffective
communication
Natural Science
Forecast skill,interpretation Computer
ScienceWeb
programming
• Transferable, scalable tools are possible!
• Focus on knowledge development, not just data & information.
Interactive webtools require major commitment and resources.
Prototypes insufficient!Stakeholders need reliable tools, which require solid software foundation, organized development, sustainability for maintenance and expansion.
Climate Research Impacts Society… Unexpectedly?
Have you heard comments about role of science?
Which objectives are supported by your research and products?
What are your success metrics?
Are there synergies in webtool development?