NILS SVANGÅRD DATA SCIENCE & MACHINE LEARNING · 2014-04-03 · – ERIC SCHMIDT, CEO GOOGLE, 2010...

22
DATA SCIENCE & MACHINE LEARNING NILS SVANGÅRD

Transcript of NILS SVANGÅRD DATA SCIENCE & MACHINE LEARNING · 2014-04-03 · – ERIC SCHMIDT, CEO GOOGLE, 2010...

Page 1: NILS SVANGÅRD DATA SCIENCE & MACHINE LEARNING · 2014-04-03 · – ERIC SCHMIDT, CEO GOOGLE, 2010 “Every 2 Days We Create As Much Information As We Did Up To 2003” 2010 2013

D ATA S C I E N C E & M A C H I N E L E A R N I N G

N I L S S VA N G Å R D

Page 2: NILS SVANGÅRD DATA SCIENCE & MACHINE LEARNING · 2014-04-03 · – ERIC SCHMIDT, CEO GOOGLE, 2010 “Every 2 Days We Create As Much Information As We Did Up To 2003” 2010 2013

– A N G E L A A H R E N D T S , C E O O F B U R B E R R Y

“Consumer data will be the biggest differentiator in the next few years. Whoever unlocks the reams of data and uses it strategically will

win.”

Page 3: NILS SVANGÅRD DATA SCIENCE & MACHINE LEARNING · 2014-04-03 · – ERIC SCHMIDT, CEO GOOGLE, 2010 “Every 2 Days We Create As Much Information As We Did Up To 2003” 2010 2013

– E R I C S C H M I D T, C E O G O O G L E , 2 0 1 0

“Every 2 Days We Create As Much Information As We Did Up To 2003”

2010 2013 2015

2 0 1 3 S K A PA D E S S A M M A M Ä N G D VA R 1 0 : E M I N U T

Page 4: NILS SVANGÅRD DATA SCIENCE & MACHINE LEARNING · 2014-04-03 · – ERIC SCHMIDT, CEO GOOGLE, 2010 “Every 2 Days We Create As Much Information As We Did Up To 2003” 2010 2013

K O N K U R R E N S F Ö R D E L A RB I G D A TA L E D E R T I L L

Grocers

Online Retailers

Big Box Retailers

Casinos

Credit Cards

Insurance 8%

9%

5%

5%

-1%

6%

9%

14%

11%

9%

24%

12%

Big Data Leaders

Other

M C K I N S E Y G L O B A L I N S T I T U T E , B I G D ATA : T H E N E X T F R O N T I E R F O R I N N O VAT I O N , C O M P E T I T I O N , A N D P R O D U C T I V I T Y, M C K I N S E Y & C O M PA N Y, 2 0 1 1 .

B I G D ATA B U S I N E S S I N T E L L I G E N C E V S .

Page 5: NILS SVANGÅRD DATA SCIENCE & MACHINE LEARNING · 2014-04-03 · – ERIC SCHMIDT, CEO GOOGLE, 2010 “Every 2 Days We Create As Much Information As We Did Up To 2003” 2010 2013

The IBM 702: a computer used by the first generation of AI researchers.

• Mer Beräkningskraft

• Mer Data

• Bättre Teknik

Page 6: NILS SVANGÅRD DATA SCIENCE & MACHINE LEARNING · 2014-04-03 · – ERIC SCHMIDT, CEO GOOGLE, 2010 “Every 2 Days We Create As Much Information As We Did Up To 2003” 2010 2013

G A R T N E R , H T T P : / / W W W. G A R T N E R . C O M / I T / PA G E . J S P ? I D = 1 8 6 2 7 1 4

“Through 2015, more than 85% of Fortune 500 organizations will fail to effectively

exploit big data for competitive advantage.”

Big Data

Page 7: NILS SVANGÅRD DATA SCIENCE & MACHINE LEARNING · 2014-04-03 · – ERIC SCHMIDT, CEO GOOGLE, 2010 “Every 2 Days We Create As Much Information As We Did Up To 2003” 2010 2013

Big Data

Data Science

Page 8: NILS SVANGÅRD DATA SCIENCE & MACHINE LEARNING · 2014-04-03 · – ERIC SCHMIDT, CEO GOOGLE, 2010 “Every 2 Days We Create As Much Information As We Did Up To 2003” 2010 2013

M C K I N S E Y / W S J , H T T P : / / O N L I N E . W S J . C O M / A R T I C L E /S B 1 0 0 0 1 4 2 4 0 5 2 7 0 2 3 0 4 7 2 3 3 0 4 5 7 7 3 6 5 7 0 0 3 6 8 0 7 3 6 7 4 . H T M L

"A significant constraint on realizing value from Big Data will be a shortage of talent, particularly of people with

deep expertise in statistics and machine learning," ... "We project a need for 1.5 million additional [data scientists] in

the United States who can [use] Big Data effectively."

M A C H I N E L E A R N I N GD E N M E S T P O P U L Ä R A K U R S E N PÅ S TA N F O R D 2 0 1 3

Page 9: NILS SVANGÅRD DATA SCIENCE & MACHINE LEARNING · 2014-04-03 · – ERIC SCHMIDT, CEO GOOGLE, 2010 “Every 2 Days We Create As Much Information As We Did Up To 2003” 2010 2013

M A C H I N E L E A R N I N G

A R T I F I C I A L I N T E L L I G E N C E V S .

E X E M P E L

• OCR

• Spamfilter

• Sökmotorer

• Face Recognition

Page 10: NILS SVANGÅRD DATA SCIENCE & MACHINE LEARNING · 2014-04-03 · – ERIC SCHMIDT, CEO GOOGLE, 2010 “Every 2 Days We Create As Much Information As We Did Up To 2003” 2010 2013

E - H A N D E L

P O L I T I K

Page 11: NILS SVANGÅRD DATA SCIENCE & MACHINE LEARNING · 2014-04-03 · – ERIC SCHMIDT, CEO GOOGLE, 2010 “Every 2 Days We Create As Much Information As We Did Up To 2003” 2010 2013

M A C H I N E L E A R N I N G A L G O R I T H M

T R A I N I N G D ATA

T E S T D ATA M O D E L P E R F O R M A N C E

F E E D B A C K

B A T C H

R E A LT I M E

M A C H I N E L E A R N I N G D O E S N O T R E Q U I R E B I G D ATA

Page 12: NILS SVANGÅRD DATA SCIENCE & MACHINE LEARNING · 2014-04-03 · – ERIC SCHMIDT, CEO GOOGLE, 2010 “Every 2 Days We Create As Much Information As We Did Up To 2003” 2010 2013

I V E R K L I G H E T E N

Page 13: NILS SVANGÅRD DATA SCIENCE & MACHINE LEARNING · 2014-04-03 · – ERIC SCHMIDT, CEO GOOGLE, 2010 “Every 2 Days We Create As Much Information As We Did Up To 2003” 2010 2013

9 9 . 6 5 %

9 9 . 9 8 4 1 6 %4 0 0 T R U E P O S I T I V E

2 9 , 6 0 0 FA L S E P O S I T I V E

Page 14: NILS SVANGÅRD DATA SCIENCE & MACHINE LEARNING · 2014-04-03 · – ERIC SCHMIDT, CEO GOOGLE, 2010 “Every 2 Days We Create As Much Information As We Did Up To 2003” 2010 2013

8 0 / 2 0

Page 15: NILS SVANGÅRD DATA SCIENCE & MACHINE LEARNING · 2014-04-03 · – ERIC SCHMIDT, CEO GOOGLE, 2010 “Every 2 Days We Create As Much Information As We Did Up To 2003” 2010 2013

S M A K A R D E T S Å K O S TA R D E T

Demand SideSupply Side

Publishers

Advertisers

Ad Market

Exchanges Agencies

Page 16: NILS SVANGÅRD DATA SCIENCE & MACHINE LEARNING · 2014-04-03 · – ERIC SCHMIDT, CEO GOOGLE, 2010 “Every 2 Days We Create As Much Information As We Did Up To 2003” 2010 2013

B R A R E S U LTAT M E D E N K L A M E D E L

Page 17: NILS SVANGÅRD DATA SCIENCE & MACHINE LEARNING · 2014-04-03 · – ERIC SCHMIDT, CEO GOOGLE, 2010 “Every 2 Days We Create As Much Information As We Did Up To 2003” 2010 2013

T H I N K O U T S I D E T H E B O X

Page 18: NILS SVANGÅRD DATA SCIENCE & MACHINE LEARNING · 2014-04-03 · – ERIC SCHMIDT, CEO GOOGLE, 2010 “Every 2 Days We Create As Much Information As We Did Up To 2003” 2010 2013

Define Indicators

Tune Indicator Scores

Quantitative Analysis of Indicators

Current Player Data

Train Predictive

Model

All Historical Player Data

Continuously Predict Risks

for Active Players

Latest Player Data

2-4 times per yearDuring initial dev phase,

and then once every year

"Psychosocial modelling" Predictive Modelling

Operator:Communication & User InterfaceWeekly

Page 19: NILS SVANGÅRD DATA SCIENCE & MACHINE LEARNING · 2014-04-03 · – ERIC SCHMIDT, CEO GOOGLE, 2010 “Every 2 Days We Create As Much Information As We Did Up To 2003” 2010 2013

F R A M T I D E N ?

M A C H I N E 2 M A C H I N E

Page 20: NILS SVANGÅRD DATA SCIENCE & MACHINE LEARNING · 2014-04-03 · – ERIC SCHMIDT, CEO GOOGLE, 2010 “Every 2 Days We Create As Much Information As We Did Up To 2003” 2010 2013

I N T E R N E T O F T H I N G S

D E E P L E A R N I N G

Page 21: NILS SVANGÅRD DATA SCIENCE & MACHINE LEARNING · 2014-04-03 · – ERIC SCHMIDT, CEO GOOGLE, 2010 “Every 2 Days We Create As Much Information As We Did Up To 2003” 2010 2013

S A M M A N FAT T N I N G

• Data Science är här för att stanna

• Det går att få bra resultat med enkla medel

• Experimentera mera!

H T T P S : / / C L A S S . C O U R S E R A . O R G / M L - 0 0 3 / L E C T U R E

VA R K A N M A N L Ä R A S I G M E R ?

Page 22: NILS SVANGÅRD DATA SCIENCE & MACHINE LEARNING · 2014-04-03 · – ERIC SCHMIDT, CEO GOOGLE, 2010 “Every 2 Days We Create As Much Information As We Did Up To 2003” 2010 2013

TA C K !

N I L S S VA N G Å R D N I L S @ TA J I T S U . C O M 0 7 0 2 - 8 6 3 7 6 3

TAJITSUM A X I M I Z I N G C U S T O M E R VA L U E