Next Generation TV Panel Technology and Market Trends 2020
31
From Technologies to Markets © 2020 From Technologies to Markets © 2020 Next Generation TV Panel Technology and Market Trends 2020 – Market and Technology Report 2020 Sample
Transcript of Next Generation TV Panel Technology and Market Trends 2020
From Technologies to Markets
© 2020
From Technologies to Markets
© 2020
Next Generation TV Panel
Technology and Market Trends 2020
–Market and Technology
Report 2020
Sample
2
About the authors
Companies cited in this report
Comparisons with 2019 report
Acronyms
Context
Objective of the report
Content
Structure of the report
Glossary 16
o LCD basics
o LCD vs OLED
o Panels vs TVs
o Panel substrate generation and size
o Display resolutions
Executive summary 23
Context 76
o Emerging TV features
o Advanced TV features: 2020 status
o Volume and revenue by price band
Market forecast - Supply and demand analysis 83
o Looking back at 2019
o Recent events
o LCD panel price trends
o LCD capacity attrition:Who fills the vacuum?
o 2019-2021 LCD capacity scenario
o China Subsidies
o China won the LCD TV battle
o China LCD strategy: Not a first!
o 2018-2024 TV panel area capacity forecast by technology
o 2018-2024 TV panel area capacity forecast by region
o 2018-2024 TV panel area capacity forecast by company
o 2018-2024 TV panel area capacity forecast by fab generation
o Covid-19 impact overview
o Covid-19 impact: Macro-economic Data
o Covid-19 impact: Demand Side
o 2018-2026 TV sets volume forecast- Size breakdown
o 2018-2026 TV panels area forecast – Size breakdown
o 2018-2026 TV sets forecast – Technology breakdown
o 2018-2024 supply vs demand analysis
o Conclusions:A shifting industry landscape
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Part 1/6
3
Competitive landscape - Company strategies 112
o Overview of TV panel makers fab locations
o TV panel maker market share (volumes)
o AU Optronics (TW)
o BOE (CN)
o CEC Panda (CN)
o TCL CSOT (CN)
o HKC (CN)
o Foxconn / Innolux / Sakai Display / SIO (TW/JP/CN)
o LG display (KR)
o Samsung (KR)
Technology landscape 141
o Many technologies
o LCD and OLED
o Scorecards
o Evolution
o New self emissive technologies
LCD upgrades 149
Quantum dot enhancement films (QDEF) 150
o What is a quantum dots
o Photo-luminescent vs electro-luminescent
o LCD display structure
o Benefits
o Implementations
o QD films: Structure and requirements
o Quantum dot film price evolution
o Perovskite
o Quantum dot films SWOT
o Supply chain status and trends
o Other players
Narrowband phosphors 166
o Notch filters
o Narrowband phosphors
o PFS - Possible limitations
o Desired phosphor improvement
o Other solutions: Bandpass filters
MiniLED backlights 172
o Introduction: LCD backlight dimming
o Local dimming – Evolution
o Dimming zones and number of LEDs
o Examples: 75” 2019-2020 commercial models
o Local dimming challenges
o Increasing the number of leds
o From FALD to miniLED backlights
o MiniLED benefits
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
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o MiniLED key design elements
o LED type and die size
o Circuit board types
o Assembly
o Challenges
o Driving: Passive Or active matrix
o Illustration: A 4576 zone passive matrix backlight
o Transition to active matrix?
o MiniDrivers and MOSFET transistors
o MiniLED TV examples
o Number of zones vs LEDs
o TCL miniLED timeline
o Power consumption
o Summary: Design and performance trade offs for miniLED BLU
o Example of 75” miniLED BLU cost structure projections
o 75” TV cost comparison: WOLED vs miniLED LCD
o Conclusions
o Supply chain – Key players
o MiniLED SWOT
Dual cell LCD 206
o Overview
o Cost
o Discussion
o Examples
o Power consumption
o Status & timeline
o Discussion
o Dual cell SWOT
OLED 216
o AMOLED display structure
o RGB OLED
o White OLED (WOLED)
o Top emission / Bottom emission
o OLED materials
o OLED emitter materials: Front runners
o Inkjet printed RGB OLED
o OLED materials for inkjet printing
o Inkjet printing tools for display manufacturing
o Inkjet printing: Potential cost benefits
o RGB inkjet vs WOLED evaporation process comparison
o Inkjet printed RGB TV prototypes
o Inkjet printed RGB OLED – Key players and supply chain
o JOLED: First to volume manufacturing
o JOLED Prototypes and commercial panels
o Status
o RGB OLED SWOT
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QD-OLED 235o From QD color filters to Qd-OLED
o Benefits and challenges
o Example: QD materials
o Status
o QD-Materials
o QD-OLED SWOT
QNED 243o Timeline
o Frontend: Nanorod fabrication
o Nanorod structure and dimensions
o Backend: QNED display structure & assembly
o QNED vs QD-OLED
o QNED vs “standard” microLED
o QNED: The third path?
o Challenges
o Status
o QNED SWOT
Summary: OLED company strategies 255
Electroluminescent quantum dots (EL-QD) 261o Introduction
o Potential benefits vs RGB OLED
o Challenges
o EL-QD material status
o Hybrid OLED/Electroluminescent QD
o Status and major players
o Electroluminescent QD SWOT
MicroLED 271
o Potential benefits
o Assembly
o Challenges
o The assembly challenge
o Major types of microLED transfer and assembly processes
o The die size challenge
o Implications for performance and manufacturability
o MicroLED industry status
o Intellectual property activity trends
o Leading applicant ranking
o Trends per company type
o Panel makers
o Supply chain overview
o Supply chain requirements and maturity level
o TV: Blurring the frontier between TV and videowalls
o MicroLED TV: Sony, Samsung and LG
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o Samsung designs
o Challenges for tiled displays
o Scenario for MicroLED Adoption in TV
o Possible disruption: QNED
o MicroLED SWOT
Manufacturing synergies between the various emerging TVtechnologies 291
o Quantum dot patterning
o Inkjet printing
o Alternative to inkjet printing: Organic vapor jet printing
o TFT backplane
TV features 302
Large panels 303
o Size vs price
o Generation 8.5 substrate cuts
o Generation 10.5 substrate cuts
o List of G10.X Fabs
o Options for large panels
o Multi modal glass cut
o Examples of Gen 8.5 and 10.5 multi mode glass cut
o “Jumbo” TV: 90” and above
o MicroLED modular displays
o Laser TV (short throw projectors)
8K 320
o Panel size, viewing distance and field of view
o Angular resolution
o Illustration: 85” TV
o Is 8K needed?
o Current challenges for 8K: Building the plane while flying?
o Illustration: Bandwidth
o Current challenges for 8K
o Content availability for different platforms
o Upscaling
o 8K challenges for LCD: Power consumption
o 8K challenges for LCD:TFT and drivers
o 8K challenges For OLED:Top and bottom emission
o 8K adoption trends
o 8K association
o TV panel resolution forecast 2018-2026
o Comparison against previous forecast
o 8K breakdown by panel size 2018-2026
o Discussion
o Key players: Panel and TV brands
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
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Better pixels: Contrast and color 341
o The “better pixel”
o The UHD Alliance
Wide color gamut 345
o Color gamut: standard LED LCD TVs
o UHD Alliance requirements
o ColorVolumes
o Status: Emitter types
o Wide color gamut technology benchmark
o OLED resonant micro-cavities
o Color gamut performance of commercially available TV
o Performance of commercially availableTV: Color gamut
o Performance of commercially availableTV: Color volume
o Quantum dot film and narrowband phosphor adoption
o Major TV makers’ wide color gamut technologies
o Wide color gamut forecast and technology breakdown 2018-2026
o Discussions: Possible disruptions
High Dynamic Range 363
o High Dynamic Range (HDR)
o Viewers’ preference
o UHD Alliance requirement
o Transfer function
o Tone mapping - Signal delivery
o Major HDR delivery standard
o HDR ecosystem – 2020 update
o Challenges for display
o Examples
o OLED vs LCD
o Summary
o HDR vs HDR compatible
o HDR TV volume forecast 2018-2026
Discussion 381
o Contrast or color?
o Trends
o The best of both worlds?
o OLED and LCD
o Emerging self emissive technologies
o Technology roadmap for High-End TV
o Conclusions
Yole Développement presentation 400
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
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ABOUT THE AUTHORS
Biographies & contacts
EricVirey, PhD.
Eric Virey, PhD. serves as a Principal Display Market and Technologies Analyst within the Photonics, Sensing & Display division at Yole Développement (Yole).
Eric has spoken in more than 50 industry conferences over the last 10 years and has been interviewed or quoted in multiple media including: The Wall Street Journal, CNN, Fox News, CNBC, Bloomberg, Financial Review, Forbes, Technology Review, etc.
Prior to joining Yole, Eric held R&D, engineering, manufacturing and marketing positions with Fortune 500 Company Saint-Gobain in France and the United States. Eric received a PhD in Optoelectronics from the National Polytechnic Institute of Grenoble. He is based in Portland, OR.
Contact: [email protected]
Zine Bouhamri, PhD.
As a Technology & Market Analyst, Displays, Zine Bouhamri, PhD is a member of the Photonics, Sensing & Display division at YoleDéveloppement (Yole).
Zine manages the day to day production of technology & market reports, as well as custom consulting projects. He is also deeply involved in the business development of the Displays unit activities at Yole.
Previously, Zine was in charge of numerous R&D programs at Aledia. During more than three years, he developed strong technical expertise as well as a detailed understanding of the display industry. He is author and co-author of several papers and patents. Zine holds an Electronics Engineering Degree from the National Polytechnic Institute of Grenoble (France), one from the Politecnico di Torino (Italy), and a Ph.D. in RF & Optoelectronics from Grenoble University (France).
Contact: [email protected]
99
Apple, Asus, AU Optronics, Avantama, BOE, CEC Panda, Changelight, Changhong, CHOT, CNC, CSOT,
Cynora, Dolby, Dupont, eFun, Efonlong, Eizo, Electech, eLux, Epileds, Epistar, Excellence Opto, Exciton,
Flanders Scientific, Foxconn, Funai, GE/Current, Haier, Hansol, Harvatek, HC Semitek, Hisense, Hitachi
Chemical (AKA Showa Denko Materials), HKC, HongLi, Huawei, Innolux, Intematix, JOLED, Kateeva,
KDX, Kinglight, Konka, Kulicke & Soffa, Kyulux, Lextar, LG Display, Loewe, Lumenari, MnTech, Nanjing
Tech, Nanoco, Nanophotonica, Nanosys, Nationstar, Nexdot, NHK, Nichia, Nitto Kolon, Panasonic,
Philips, PixelDisplay, Playnitride, Quantum Materials, Refond, Rohinni, Sakai Display (SDP/SIO), Samsung
Display, Samsung Visual Display , Sanan, Semes, Sharp, ShineOn, Skyworth, Sony, Sumitomo Chemical,
Taiwan Nanomaterials, TCL, Tianma, Toshiba, TPV, Unijet, Universal Display, Vestel, Vizio, Wahong, X-
Celeprint / Xdisplay (XDC), Xiaomi, and more.
Next Generation TV Panel Technology and Market Trends 2020 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2020
COMPANIES CITED IN THIS REPORT
10Next Generation TV Panel Technology and Market Trends 2020 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2020
CONTEXT
• The TV market is at a crossroad with stagnating unit volume sales, commoditization and looming extended excess capacity.
All translate into shrinking profitability while the industry remains extremely capex intensive.
• The industry therefore is striving to develop new features to trigger a replacement cycle and compel consumers to upgrade
their TVs with newer and more expensive models. Individual players are all striving to differentiate.
• LCD technologies dominates. However, an unprecedented number of new display technologies are emerging, all credible
potential candidates to deliver those new, high added value features and steal the crown for the next generation of TV
display technology.
11Next Generation TV Panel Technology and Market Trends 2020 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2020
OBJECTIVE OF THE REPORT
The objective of the report is to provide an update of the TV panel industry landscape (trends and forecast, supply and
demand…), present and analyze new TV features, understand which technologies are best positioned to deliver them, and
look at the intersections to understand the impact and possible strategies for panel makers
Present and analyze new TV features
expected to compel consumers to
upgrade their TV
Present and analyze emerging display
technologies and determine how well
positioned they are to serve each of the
new desired TV features
Analyze the intersection of new features and emerging technologies:
what are the implications in terms of panel makers’ strategies,
technological and manufacturing choices and impact on the supply chain.
Which are the best technologies? Who owns or champions them? Which ones will dominate ?
What manufacturing strategies are deployed by individual panel makers?
How can Korean and Chinese manufacturers defend against the rise of Chinese manufacturers?
What are the capacity constraints? Over-spending risks? Etc.…
TV panels market forecast by size and technology / supply and demand analysis / company strategies
12Next Generation TV Panel Technology and Market Trends 2020 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2020
CONTENT
Technologies
• Quantum Dot Films
• Quantum Dot Color filters
• Perovskite
• Narrowband phosphors
• Notch Filters
• Dual Cell LCD
• miniLED
• microLED and QNED
• WOLED
• RGB OLED
• QD-OLED
• EL-QD
TV features
For each:
Trends, adoption rates,
technology breakdown and volume
forecast.
Other analysis
• Large panel capacity
analysis and trends:
breakdown by technology,
company, substrate size
(fab generation), country [1].
• Key player strategies for
technology and
manufacturing.
• Large panel sizes
• Resolution: 4K → 8K
• Wide color gamut and color
volume.
• High dynamic range (black
levels and peak brightness,
HDR delivery).
• Not covered: 3D, refresh
rates
For each:
Detailed description, key
players, supply chain, SWOT
analysis.
[1]: Data from Yole display fab database.
13Next Generation TV Panel Technology and Market Trends 2020 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2020
SAMSUNG AND LG LCD EXIT RESTORES HEALTHIER SUPPLY DEMAND BALANCE
Samsung
+ LG
LCD exit
Together, LG Display and Samsung Display are expected to remove more than 50m m2 of panel start capacity.
BOE, CSOT and HKC are ramping up their recently built fabs, but no new investment is expected beyond HKC’s Gen 8.6 “H5”.
With OLED also ramping up more slowly than anticipated after LG postponed its G10.5 fab in Korea, the overall supply and demand balance
could become tight as soon as 2021.
May 2019 Forecast
14Next Generation TV Panel Technology and Market Trends 2020 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2020
2019-2021 LCD CAPACITY SCENARIO
XXX
- X m m2
XXX
- X m m2
XXX
+ X m m2
XXX
+ X m m2
XXX
-16.7m m2
XXX
+X m m2
XXX: +X m m2
Others: -X m2
XXX:
-X m m2
• Complete XXX and XX fabs ramp up: +XX million m2
• Complete XXX ramp up: XX million m2
• Assumes acquisition of CEC Panda XX fabs: + XXm m2
• Assumes acquisition of XXX fab : +XX million m2.
• Finish XXXXXXX fabs ramp. Build XX fab in XX.
• Stop XXXXX
• Keep XXXXXXXXXX
• XXXXXXXXXXX
• Assumes fab sold to XXXX
• Resume XXXXXXXXXXX
• Assumes XXXXXXXXXXXXX sold to XX
• e.g.: Panasonic exit LCD manufacturing
Minus
XXm
m2
Plus
XXm m2
Others: +X m m2
2019-2021
LCD variation:
-XX m m2
Zero sum game:
This scenario assumes that
…………………………
…………………………
…………………………
…………………………
…………………………
…………………………
…………………………
…………………………
…………………………
…………………………
…………………………
…………………………
…………………………
…………
1515
2018-2024 TV PANEL AREA CAPACITY FORECAST BY COMPANY
Chinese companies BOE and CSOT are set to dominate. Scenario assumes that CEC Panda fabsare acquired in late 2020 by CSOT.
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[1]: For G5 and G6: only fabs known to produce large panels are included in the total (most Gen 6 and below fabs are used for mobile applications, automotive, industrial and
other small size panels). SIO G10.5 fab in China counted as “Foxconn/sharp/Sakai.
1616
AN OVERALL FLAT TV MARKET
The TV market has been essentially flat since the end of the cathode ray tube replacement cycle at the beginning of the decade.
Next Generation TV Panel Technology and Market Trends 2020 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2020
• The TV market has been essentially flat since the end of the cathode ray tube replacement cycle. The industry faces
lower margins and slower growth. It needs ways to compel consumers to upgrade often fairly-recent flat panel TVs
and spend more on newer models.
• Through the past decade, a variety of design and technological improvements have been introduced. While some have
allowed TV makers to combat price erosion, none were disruptive enough to trigger a major replacement cycle akin
to the transition from CRT to flat panel. The industry must therefore keep developing more, new and compelling
features.
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 (F)
Mill
ion U
nits
Flat Panel Shipments
(Plasma, LCD, OLED only – Excludes Cathod Ray Tubes)
Resolution: 1k → 2k
(HD→ FHD)
LED backlight
(also enabled
thinner
displays)
3D TVs
Resolution:
2K → 4KCurved TV
HDR, Wide
Color Gamut
= UHD
Resolution:
8K
17Next Generation TV Panel Technology and Market Trends 2020 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2020
TV DEMAND TRENDS AND FORECAST BY FEATURE 2019-2026
Large size panels and adoption of new higher added value features will help the industry alleviate a massive margin crunch
[1]: per UHD alliance criteria
18Next Generation TV Panel Technology and Market Trends 2020 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2020
ADVANCED TV FEATURES: 2020 ADOPTION STATUS
Current and future industry battlegrounds
LED backlight
XXX
XXXX
XXXX
XXXX
XXXX
XXXX
XXXX
XXXX
XXXX
XXXX
Emerging Growing Mature
XXXX
Slim:
OLEDXXXX
Adoption in 2020
(% of total TV sold annually)
Status
2019
2009
Curved TVs
3D TVs [2] ?
[2]: Possible come back in the long-term if glass-free
technology development successful.
20172014
2017
2006
2012
2014
20072006
Keys for the graph:
• Date = first introduction of the feature
• Highlighted: panel-technology-related (otherwise:
driven by TV set electronics and software)
• Adoption dynamic of the features:
2016
2014
2014
XXXX
50%
100%
0%
[1]: HDR compatible: accept HDR signal but panel technology doesn’t
allow proper reproduction per UHD consortium requirements
Fast growth
Slow growth, Stagnating
Decreasing
100%
2020
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MANY TECHNOLOGIES COMPETING TO DELIVER ADVANCED FEATURES
Established On-RoadmapEarly-stage prod / Pilot In Development
Other
self-
emissive
&
projection
Note: curved arrows highlight synergies and commonalities between different emerging technologies
LCD
OLED
AKA XXX
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LCD LOCAL DIMMING EVOLUTION
1D edge dimming
1-axis
1D edge
dimming
2-axis
Low-
resolution
FALD
High-
resolution
FALD
Pixel-level
dimming
MiniLED
FALD
No dimming Global
dimming
# of
zones
Zone
per pixel
1
0.1
0.01
0.001
0.0001
0.00001
0.000001
0.0000001
Backlit technologies
(LCD, DLP, LCOS)
Self-emissive
technologies(OLED, microLED)
MiniLED
2121
TECHNOLOGY BREAKDOWN FORECAST
Entry level LCD keep dominating in term of volumes.
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2222
TV PANEL MAKER MARKET SHARE (VOLUMES)
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Generation TV Panel Technology and Market Trends 2020 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2020
2323
QUANTUM DOT FILM PRICE EVOLUTION
Cost of Quantum dot film has decreased significantly since their introduction thanks to technology and manufacturing improvement.
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24Next Generation TV Panel Technology and Market Trends 2020 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2020
ILLUSTRATIONS: NUMBER OF ZONES VS LEDS
The industry is far from having converged in term of design choices:
10k zones / 100k+ chips seem to be the end game to deliver OLED-like performance and good
efficiency, thermal management.
1 000
10 000
100 000
1 000 000
- 2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000 10 000 12 000
Num
ber
of LED
s
Number of Zones
2525
EXAMPLE OF 75” MINILED BLU COST STRUCTURE PROJECTIONS
With this architecture, the AM backplane, miniLEDs and the light management films in the BLU are the leading cost contributors. Other architectures could lead to different results (e.g.: mini--drivers)!
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[1]: reflector, DBEF etc.
[2]: drivers, frame, PCB strip for the FALD, flexible edge connectors etc.
Key hypothesis:
$XX
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QNED FRONTEND FABRICATION: NANOROD PROCESS FLOW
2727
SAMSUNG MINI AND MICROLED DESIGNS
Samsung Visual Display is sending confusing messages by using 2 very distinct technologies and architectures and branding them both “MicroLED”.
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The Wall
miniLED
75” / 150”
microLED
1st year shown 2018 2019
Application Videowall/luxuryTV High end TV
Die size XX µm ~XX µm
Die supplier XX XX
Module material PCB LTPS TFT
Assembly Die bonder Proprietary mass transfer
Driving Passive matrix, discrete ICs Active matrix TFT
Individual module size XX mm XX
Individual module resolution XX XX
Pixel pitch 0.84 mm (30 PPI) 0.43 mm (59 PPI)
Display resolution
Depends on size:
146”=4K
292”: 8K
Depends on size:
75”: 4K
150”: 8K
2828
CURRENT CHALLENGES FOR 8K
The entire content production and delivery chain needs to define and adopt common standards and practices to enable improved image quality for all viewers.
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Content creation
Production -encoding
Distribution/ broadcasting
Display
• Digital cameras
• Editing
• Codecs (HEVC, VCC…)
• Connectivity (HDMI, DisplayPort,
wireless.)
• Streaming
• Blu-ray
• Broadcasting
• Set-top boxes
• TVs
• Tablets
• Laptops
• Smartphones
29Next Generation TV Panel Technology and Market Trends 2020 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2020
UHD ALLIANCE REQUIREMENTS
Content creation
Production -encoding
Distribution/ broadcasting
Display
The UHD Alliance adopted Rec. 2020 as a long-term, future-proof color standard for encoding and distribution and
the smaller digital cinema DCI P3 gamut to measure display reproduction capabilities.
BT. 2020 gamut with a 10-bit depth
(1,024 levels for each R,G,B primary,
for a total of more than 1B colors [1])
Must be able to handle signal encoded in BT2020
but minimum requirement for color reproduction is
90% of the DCI P3 gamut [2].
[1] Previous standard for HD TVs was 8 bits, i.e. 256 levels per primary, for a total of 16.8M colors.
[2] Requirement for professional displays used for content mastering is 100% of DCI P3 in order to ensures that colorists will see the content as shown in digital theatres.
Rec. 709:
Current HD
TV
DCI P3
BT2020
Mastering, encoding and distribution
Displays
30
Contact our
Sales Team
for more
information
30
Contact our
Sales Team
for more
information
MicroLED Displays 2019
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Yole Développement
MicroLED Displays – Intellectual Property Status & Landscape 2020
Next Generation 3D Displays 2019
Displays and optics for AR & VR 2020 (available in April 2020)
YOLE GROUP OF COMPANIES RELATED REPORTS
MiniLED Displays 2019
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