newmont mining June_JPMorgan_Conference_Final

19
JPMorgan Basics & Industrials Conference June 3, 2008

Transcript of newmont mining June_JPMorgan_Conference_Final

Page 1: newmont mining June_JPMorgan_Conference_Final

JPMorganBasics & Industrials

ConferenceJune 3, 2008

Page 2: newmont mining June_JPMorgan_Conference_Final

June 3, 2008 2

Cautionary Statement

This presentation contains “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, that are intended to be covered by the safe harbor created by such sections. Such forward-looking statements include, without limitation, (i) estimates of future mineral production and sales; (ii) estimates of future costs applicable to sales, other expenses and taxes for specific operations, and on a consolidated basis; (iii) estimates of future capital expenditures, construction, production, or closure activities; and (iv) statements regarding potential cost savings, productivity, operating performance, cost structure and competitive position. Where the Company expresses or implies anexpectation or belief as to future events or results, such expectation or belief is expressed in good faith and believed to have a reasonable basis. However, forward-looking statements are subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors, which could cause actual results to differ materially from future results expressed, projected or implied by such forward-looking statements. Such risks include, but are not limited to, gold and other metals price volatility, currency fluctuations, increased production costs and variances in ore grade or recovery rates from those assumed in mining plans, political and operational risks in the countries in which we operate, and governmental regulation and judicial outcomes. For a more detailed discussion of such risks and other factors, see the Company’s 2007 Annual Report on Form 10-K, filed on February 21, 2008, with the Securities and Exchange Commission, as well as the Company’s other SEC filings. The Company does not undertake any obligation to release publicly revisions to any “forward-looking statement,” to reflect events or circumstances after the date of this news release, or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events, except as may be required under applicable securities laws.

Explanation of Non-GAAP Measures and Certain MetricsThis presentation contains the non-GAAP financial measure adjusted net income and a reconciliation of adjusted net income to net income calculated in accordance with GAAP. Adjusted net income is not, and should not, be used in isolation or as an alternative to GAAP net income as reflected in the Company's consolidated financial statements. For further information concerning the use of adjusted net income by the Company and analysts, see the 2008 Earnings Release on Form 8-K furnished by the Company to the Securities and Exchange Commission on or about April 24, 2008, and the Company's other SEC reports.

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June 3, 2008 3

Gold Market –Supply & Demand

Source: GFMS

Mine Supply - (down 6% from

2001)

Scrap Supply

Deficit

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Tonn

es

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

Tonn

es

Mine Supply Scrap Supply Deficit Jewelry Demand

Total Demand

Jewelry Demand

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June 3, 2008 4

Gold and the Dollar –2006 to 2008

Source: Reuters, Federal Reserve

66

69

72

75

78

81

84

87

1/3/20

066/3

/2006

11/3/

2006

4/3/20

079/3

/2007

2/3/20

087/3

/2008

12/3/

2008

Dol

lar I

ndex

$500

$575

$650

$725

$800

$875

$950

$1,025

Gol

d ($

/oz)

GOLDUS Trade-Weighted Dollar Index (Major Currencies) -

Axis Inverted

Last date: May 29, 2008

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June 3, 2008 5

Gold Market –Investment Demand

Source: World Gold Council, www.gold.org

Tonnes Gold ETF Holdings $/oz

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June 3, 2008 6

Gold Market –Producer De-Hedging

Source: GFMS

Net Impact of Producer Hedging

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June 3, 2008 7

Gold Market –Foreign Exchange Reserves

Source: IMF

Gold Standard

Page 8: newmont mining June_JPMorgan_Conference_Final

June 3, 2008 8

Gaining Market Momentum with Resolution and Execution

New management team in place

Eliminate hedge book

Divest non-core royalty assets

Focus on reserve growth—Miramar acquisition

Continue to establish operating performance record

Nevada power plant start-up

Yanacocha gold mill commissioning

Resolve Batu Hijau divestiture

Deliver on Boddington

Complete Phoenix mine plan optimization

Clarify Hope Bay development plans and strategy

Deliver continued performance in 2008

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June 3, 2008 9

Q1 2008 Highlights

Notes:(1) Gold operating margin defined as average realized price per ounce less costs applicable to sales per ounce, excluding amortization and accretion(2) Adjusted Net income is a non-GAAP measure. Refer to Slide 17 for reconciliation to GAAP Net income

Record realized gold price of $933 per ounce

Record sales of $1.94 billion

Cash flow from continuing operations of $594 million ($1.31/share)

Costs applicable to sales of $396 per ounce; down 2% from Q1 2007

Gold operating margin(1) of $537 per ounce; up 119% from Q1 2007

Adjusted Net income(2) of $386 million ($0.85/share); up 865% from Q1

2007

GAAP Net income of $370 million ($0.82/share); up 444% from Q1 2007

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June 3, 2008 10

Quarterly Margin Expansion

• Margin growth from cost containment and unhedged production• 75% margin expansion from Q3 2007 on 37% rise in gold price

$404 $417 $374 $366

$245 $248 $307$419

$396

$537$649 $665 $681

$785

$933

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

$900

$1,000

Q1 2007 Q2 2007 Q3 2007 Q4 2007 Q1 2008

CAS/oz Operating Margin/oz Average Realized Gold Price

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June 3, 2008 11

Leveraged to the Gold Price- Increase in $/share

• “If gold prices are to continue their upward trend, we think that NEM offers some of the best leverage in North America”(CIBC, 4-25-08)

• “Newmont is the most sensitive of the major miners to the higher gold and copper prices”(JPMorgan, 4-24-08)

% Change To CFPS For A 10% Change To Bullion Prices

$0.85 $0.21 $0.64

$0.26

$0.12

$0.21

$0.83

$0.25 $0.57

$0.27 $0.36

$0.16

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

AUY AEM GG ABX KGC NEM

2008 CFPS2009 CFPS

Source: CIBC World Markets Inc., April 25, 2008

$/share

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June 3, 2008 12

Major Projects UpdateNevada Power Plant - Commissioning Yanacocha Gold Mill - Commissioning Boddington – 69% Complete

• Commissioning started Q1 2008

• Expect commercial operation in Q2

• Expected economic benefit of ~$60-$70 million per annum(1)

• Capital costs: $620 - $640m

• Average annual consolidated production:

• 400 – 500k ounces• $250 - $320/ounce CAS

• Commissioning started Q1 2008

• Expect commercial operation in Q2

• Capital costs: at or below $250 - $270m

• Mill start-up late 2008/early 2009

• Average estimated pro rata production for first 5 years:

• 650 – 700k ounces

• Competitive CAS

• Significant exploration potential

• Equity capital costs: $1.4 – $1.6bNotes:(1) Economic benefit based on expectations for reduced Costs applicable to sales from self-generating power versus purchasing power and increased Other

income, net from sales of additional power generated beyond Newmont’s consumption.

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June 3, 2008 13

Advanced Projects UpdateHope Bay, Canada – Stage 2 Conga, Peru – Stage 3 Akyem, Ghana – Stage 2

• New 80km x 20km greenstone belt with significant exploration potential

• AAA-rated country

• Completed acquisition of Miramar in March 2008

• Q1 mobilized for camp infrastructure and 2008 drilling

• Equity reserves: 6.1m ounces of gold and 1.7b pounds of copper

• Advanced Stage 3 evaluation

• Permitting and community relations continuing

• Gate 3 decision expected in 2008

• Equity reserves: 7.7m ounces of gold

• Ghanaian EPA accepted submittal of revised draft Environmental Impact Study - April 23, 2008

• Permitting continuing

• Gate 2 decision expected in 2008

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June 3, 2008 14

High Value InvestmentsCanadian Oil Sands Shore Gold and FALC JV, Canada (40%) Euronimba, Guinea (41.3%) – Stage 2

• $120m(1) of annualized trust income in 2008 based on current distribution and exchange rates

• Estimated 2008 economic benefit of approximately $23 per ounce

• Newmont owns approximately 32m units (6.6%)

• Current market value: ~$1.6b(2)

• ~9.6% equity interest in Shore Gold

• 40% JV with Shore Gold (60%)

• World’s largest diamondiferous kimberlite field

• Bulk sampling of Orion South underway

• Orion South shaft sinking in progress for Q2 completion

• 41.3% ownership in world-class iron ore deposit

• Joint operation with BHP Billiton

• Drilling continues to identify high grade, high quality iron ore

• Development alternatives continue to be reviewed

(1) Calculated using actual Q1 2008 unit distributions of C$0.75 and an assumed C$1.00 per unit distribution for the remaining quarters in 2008(2) As of May 29, 2008

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June 3, 2008 15

Batu Hijau Update

Divestiture and Arbitration • Filed for international arbitration in March 2008

• Pertains to 3% from 2006 and 7% from 2007• Expected to extend beyond 2008

• Offered 7% to Indonesian government for $426 million on March 28, 2008

Forest Use Permit • Renewal remains outstanding from 2005• Potential impact to production post-2011

Impact of Extensive Rainfall in Q1• Production contingent on extent of dry

season

Divestment Obligations

Existing Divestiture Schedule

CoW requirement

to offer to Indonesians

Existing Indonesian

Interest (PTPI)

Required Shares to be Offered by

NTP Potential

NTP InterestMarch 31, 2005 15% 20% 0% 80% March 31, 2006 23% 20% 3% 77% March 31, 2007 30% 20% 10% 70% March 31, 2008 37% 20% 17% 63% March 31, 2009 44% 20% 24% 56% March 31, 2010 51% 20% 31% 49%

Divestment Obligations

Existing Divestiture Schedule

CoW requirement

to offer to Indonesians

Existing Indonesian

Interest (PTPI)

Required Shares to be Offered by

NTP Potential

NTP InterestMarch 31, 2005 15% 20% 0% 80% March 31, 2006 23% 20% 3% 77% March 31, 2007 30% 20% 10% 70% March 31, 2008 37% 20% 17% 63% March 31, 2009 44% 20% 24% 56% March 31, 2010 51% 20% 31% 49%

Divestment Obligations

Existing Divestiture Schedule

CoW requirement

to offer to Indonesians

Existing Indonesian

Interest (PTPI)

Required Shares to be Offered by

NTP Potential

NTP InterestMarch 31, 2005 15% 20% 0% 80% March 31, 2006 23% 20% 3% 77% March 31, 2007 30% 20% 10% 70% March 31, 2008 37% 20% 17% 63% March 31, 2009 44% 20% 24% 56% March 31, 2010 51% 20% 31% 49%

Divestment Obligations

Existing Divestiture Schedule

CoW requirement

to offer to Indonesians

Existing Indonesian

Interest (PTPI)

Required Shares to be Offered by

NTP Potential

NTP InterestMarch 31, 2005 15% 20% 0% 80% March 31, 2006 23% 20% 3% 77% March 31, 2007 30% 20% 10% 70% March 31, 2008 37% 20% 17% 63% March 31, 2009 44% 20% 24% 56% March 31, 2010 51% 20% 31% 49%

Divestment ObligationDivestment Obligations

Existing Divestiture Schedule

CoW requirement

to offer to Indonesians

Existing Indonesian

Interest (PTPI)

Required Shares to be Offered by

NTP Potential

NTP InterestMarch 31, 2005 15% 20% 0% 80% March 31, 2006 23% 20% 3% 77% March 31, 2007 30% 20% 10% 70% March 31, 2008 37% 20% 17% 63% March 31, 2009 44% 20% 24% 56% March 31, 2010 51% 20% 31% 49%

Divestment Obligations

Existing Divestiture Schedule

CoW requirement

to offer to Indonesians

Existing Indonesian

Interest (PTPI)

Required Shares to be Offered by

NTP Potential

NTP InterestMarch 31, 2005 15% 20% 0% 80% March 31, 2006 23% 20% 3% 77% March 31, 2007 30% 20% 10% 70% March 31, 2008 37% 20% 17% 63% March 31, 2009 44% 20% 24% 56% March 31, 2010 51% 20% 31% 49%

Divestment Obligations

Existing Divestiture Schedule

CoW requirement

to offer to Indonesians

Existing Indonesian

Interest (PTPI)

Required Shares to be Offered by

NTP Potential

NTP InterestMarch 31, 2005 15% 20% 0% 80% March 31, 2006 23% 20% 3% 77% March 31, 2007 30% 20% 10% 70% March 31, 2008 37% 20% 17% 63% March 31, 2009 44% 20% 24% 56% March 31, 2010 51% 20% 31% 49%

Divestment Obligations

Existing Divestiture Schedule

CoW requirement

to offer to Indonesians

Existing Indonesian

Interest (PTPI)

Required Shares to be Offered by

NTP Potential

NTP InterestMarch 31, 2005 15% 20% 0% 80% March 31, 2006 23% 20% 3% 77% March 31, 2007 30% 20% 10% 70% March 31, 2008 37% 20% 17% 63% March 31, 2009 44% 20% 24% 56% March 31, 2010 51% 20% 31% 49%

Divestment Obligations

Existing Divestiture Schedule

CoW requirement

to offer to Indonesians

Existing Indonesian

Interest (PTPI)

Required Shares to be Offered by

NTP Potential

NTP InterestMarch 31, 2005 15% 20% 0% 80% March 31, 2006 23% 20% 3% 77% March 31, 2007 30% 20% 10% 70% March 31, 2008 37% 20% 17% 63% March 31, 2009 44% 20% 24% 56% March 31, 2010 51% 20% 31% 49%

Divestment Obligations

Existing Divestiture Schedule

CoW requirement

to offer to Indonesians

Existing Indonesian

Interest (PTPI)

Required Shares to be Offered by

NTP Potential

NTP InterestMarch 31, 2005 15% 20% 0% 80% March 31, 2006 23% 20% 3% 77% March 31, 2007 30% 20% 10% 70% March 31, 2008 37% 20% 17% 63% March 31, 2009 44% 20% 24% 56% March 31, 2010 51% 20% 31% 49%

Divestment Obligations

Existing Divestiture Schedule

CoW requirement

to offer to Indonesians

Existing Indonesian

Interest (PTPI)

Required Shares to be Offered by

NTP Potential

NTP InterestMarch 31, 2005 15% 20% 0% 80% March 31, 2006 23% 20% 3% 77% March 31, 2007 30% 20% 10% 70% March 31, 2008 37% 20% 17% 63% March 31, 2009 44% 20% 24% 56% March 31, 2010 51% 20% 31% 49%

Divestment Obligations

Existing Divestiture Schedule

CoW requirement

to offer to Indonesians

Existing Indonesian

Interest (PTPI)

Required Shares to be Offered by

NTP Potential

NTP InterestMarch 31, 2005 15% 20% 0% 80% March 31, 2006 23% 20% 3% 77% March 31, 2007 30% 20% 10% 70% March 31, 2008 37% 20% 17% 63% March 31, 2009 44% 20% 24% 56% March 31, 2010 51% 20% 31% 49%

Divestment ObligationDivestiture Obligation

Forest Use Permit

Extensive Rainfall

Page 16: newmont mining June_JPMorgan_Conference_Final

June 3, 2008 16

A New Day Dawning

• World’s largest unhedged gold producer

• Aggressively managing costs

• Providing significant leverage to the gold price

• Three consecutive quarters of strong operating

and financial performance

Building Momentum while Building for the Future of Newmont• Strong project pipeline: four World-Class gold projects

• Extensive portfolio of high-value investments

• Politically diversified production from five continents

• Dow Jones Sustainability Index – World

• GE Ecomagination Award for Environmental Leadership

Increasing Shareholder Value Through Focus and Execution

Page 17: newmont mining June_JPMorgan_Conference_Final

Reference Slides

Page 18: newmont mining June_JPMorgan_Conference_Final

June 3, 2008 18

Reconciliation from Adjusted Net Income to GAAP Net Income

$ 0.15$ 68$ 0.82$ 370GAAP Net income

0.06280.016 Income from discontinued operations

$ 0.09$ 40$ 0.81$ 364GAAP Income from continuing operations

--(0.04)(22)Write-down of marketable securities

$ 0.09 $ 40 $ 0.85 $ 386Adjusted Net income

Per Share Q1 2007 Per Share Q1 2008 Description ($ million except per share, after-tax)

Page 19: newmont mining June_JPMorgan_Conference_Final

June 3, 2008 19

30% - 34%28% - 32%Effective tax rate

Feb 2008Apr 2008Forecast Assumptions

$80$90Oil Price ($/barrel)

0.8750.925Australian dollar exchange rate

$60 - $80

$140 - $150

$160 - $190

$220 - $230

$725 - $775

$1.8 - $2.0

$1.50 - $1.75

125 - 150

$425 - $450

5.1 - 5.4

Apr 2008

$220 - $230Exploration ($ million)

$120 - $180Advanced projects, research and development ($ million)

$140 - $150General & administrative ($ million)

$110 - $120Interest expense, net ($ million)

$725 - $775Amortization ($ million)

$1.8 - $2.0Consolidated capital expenditures ($ billion)

$1.30 - $1.40Costs applicable to sales ($/pound)

155 - 165Equity copper sales (million pounds)

$425 - $450Costs applicable to sales ($/ounce)

5.1 - 5.4Equity gold sales (million ounces)

Feb 2008Description

2008 Annual Guidance