New Technology Lecture L17 The Mobile Revolution
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The ideas for cellular phones were developed in the 1940s. However, it was not until the microprocessor becomes available that practical commercial solutions are possible. Today there are more than 4 billion mobile phone subscriptions in the world. In the last few years the increase has been most dramatic in developing countries. Telecoms operators have tried to capitalise on this by offering new services that will generate new revenues for them. Mobile Applications are increasing revenues for the operators while voices revenues are getting less and less. But what are mobile applications? In this lecture we look mobile.
Transcript of New Technology Lecture L17 The Mobile Revolution
Lecture L17 THE MOBILE REVOLUTION
Why is the mobile phone so important to us?
Q1
400M daily circulations of all newspapers 800M registered cars 900M total cable/satellite TV subscribers 1.1B of all types of computers (PC, netbooks...) 1.2B total landline phones 1.5B total TV sets 1.7B total unique holders of credit cards 2.1B total unique holders of bank accounts 3.9B total FM radios in use
Mobile Phones
6.9 billion connections!
https://gsmaintelligence.com/
There are more mobile phones in the world than there are toothbrushes
Mobile Phones
Will grow to 8 billion phones in the next few years
Image: Nokia
Mobile Phones
Why is the mobile phone so important to us?
Q1
Survival
There are 48 million people in the world who have a mobile phone but do not have electricity at home
Mobile Phones provide safety
Cisco, January 2011
The Digital Revolution
Early Systems
The First Cell phone (1973) Name: Motorola Dyna-‐TacSize: 9 x 5 x 1.75 inches Weight: 2.5 pounds Display: None Number of Circuit Boards: 30Talk time: 35 minutes Recharge Time: 10 hours Features: Talk, listen, dial
Microchip!
Digital Signal Processor!
Mobile phones became practical in the 1980s
Technical Improvements
Cellular NetworksRadio network made up of radiocells!
Tower and base
Base stations connect to Mobile Telephone Switching Office MTSO
!
SID – System identification Code !
SIM-cards
Cellular Networks
Handoff Calls are automatically moved from one cell to the nextMTSO controls the switch
!
Roaming Connecting from one phone company to another
Cellular Networks
Copyright © 2011, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
Lessons Learned: Cellular Phones
▪ Mobile phones provide safety ▪ The most common device of all ▪ Mobile phones are not practical until 1980s
due to size of technology – Adjacent Possible
▪ The invention of the microchip played crucial role in the development of cell phones
1G Analog
1G Analog
1980sVoice onlyNMT, AMPS, FDMA
Early systems were in Bahrain, US, Japan and in the Nordic countries!
First international systemwas NMT in the Nordic!
Frequency Division Multiple Access - FDMA
1G Analog
Copyright © 2011, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
Q2 When the first mobile phones become possible, how does the market evolve?
NMT in NordicsAMPS in the USTACS in UKC-Nets in West GermanyRadiocom 2000 in FranceRTMI/RTMS in Italy
1G Analog
Copyright © 2011, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
Q3 What are the characteristics of the first mobile phones and who where the users?
BigExpensiveLimited
CharacteristicsBusiness usersField users
Mobira Talkman frá Nokia
1G AnalogEarly users
Copyright © 2011, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
Q4 Early on multiple system were developed all over Europe. What was the problem with that?
Multiple standards – roaming is a problem!
In the US this is not a problem
1G Analog
European countries decide to define common standard – digital Work on a Global System for Mobile Communication (GSM) starts 1982
1G Analog
2G Digital
1990sVoice and data9.6 – 14.4 KbpsGSM, TDMA
Downloading 3 min. MP3 song: 31-41 min.
2G Digital
Digital mobile phones appear in early 90s !
GMS takes off in 1991 – unites Europe !
Time Division Multiple Access – TDMA
2G Digital
Copyright © 2011, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
Q5US is slow to adopt 2G, why?
US was slow in adopting 2G because roaming worked well!
Digital did not add enough over analog!
Texting and SIM cards was not known
2G Digital
GMS
Global System for Mobile Communication!
Built on TDMA – Digital!
Three times the capacity of analog, encryption, texting, SIM cards
GMS
GMSGSM association has 800 networks in 220 countries
Texting
Short Message System allowed 160 letters!
Became an accidental killer app – messages, chat, ring tones!
First message sent 03.12.1992:“Merry Christmas”
Lessons Learned: Cellular Phones
▪ Cars became the first platform for phones ▪ First phones are analog ▪ Multiple standard – each country invents its
own – Problem with standards (history repeats itself?) ▪ Roaming problems in Europe call for a
standard ▪ Digital standard developed in Europe, G2 ▪ US does not have roaming problems and
gets stuck in G1
3G
Mobile networks and the Internet start toconverge!
1G and 2G are circuit switched – fine for voice
The Internet is packet-switched
3G
3G Packet SwitchingIMT – 2000 was a global standard for 3Gmobile communications defined in mid-1990s!
Goals: Available 2000, Data rage 2000 kbps, Frequencies in the 2000 Mhz region
2000s More data 128+ Kbps GPSR, EDGE, UMTS, CDMA
Downloading 3 min. MP3 song: 11 sec. – 1,5 min.
3G Packet Switching
More bandwidth, more applications!
Email, Images, music, movies, streaming!
Based on Code DivisionMultiple Access – CDMA
3G Packet Switching
Copyright © 2011, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
3G Solutions
Messages Browsing Apps
Built with limitations!
Screen size, bandwidth restrictionsInput limited – one-handed keyboardLimited memory, battery life!
Fragmentation nightmare
3G Solutions
Then, in 2007, the world changed
Copyright © 2011, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
How does the competitionrespond?
Think aboutThe Arrogance of the Present
iPhone hit the market in June 2007
Ok, let’s check the facts five years later
http://www.businessinsider.com/iphone-‐bigger-‐than-‐microsoft-‐2012-‐2
Copyright © 2011, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
The iPhone Effect
Touch screen
Industrial strengthdesktop quality OS
Software and Userinterface
Platform for Apps
60 billion apps downloaded (Oct 13)
~400 apps per second
Smartphone Market
Smartphone Market
Source: Mary Meeker Slide Deck
Smartphone Market
Smartphone Market
iPhone
The App Store is to the iPhone what iTunes is to the iPod!
Google Play is the same
Availability
Specialized Apps with Quality of Service – Innovation
Context
Mobile media users pick up their phone 18 times a day to consume content via apps/browser
Key TrendsMobile became
important in 2010 and will be a revenue
opportunity going forward
Bandwidth on 3G mobile networks is
growing by approximately
400% annually
Source: Heavy Reading
Smartphones
Source: Skynews
SmartphonesHow long does it take to download a HD movie
3G - 1 hour4G - 40 seconds5G - 1 second
Image courtesy of Admob (Google)
Looking forward
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: Morgan Stanley
Mobile vs. Desktop
Source: Morgan Stanley
Mobile vs. Desktop
Cameron Says UK And Germany To Work On 5G, Internet Of Things
Solutions
Voice, text Apps, music, videos,
Worldwide tablet sales are predicted to grow by more than
400% over a two-year period, reaching 81.3 million units in
2012.
Tablets
Work More focused
More information
Digital Online World
Browsing Consuming content
Checking Mobile
Want’s it now
The “mobile web” is just the web – there is only
one web. It’s just displayed in multiple of
screen sizes
Source: The Next Big Thing: Mobile, http://www.olafurandri.com/?p=408
