Commodities Daily

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Close %Chg.

Precious metals

Gold 1311.2 0.3%

Silver 17.32 0.6%

Energy

WTI Crude oil 49.49 -0.8%

Brent Crude 55.41 0.7%

Natural gas 3.13 0.2%

Base metals – LME

COMEX Copper 344 -0.6%

Copper 6554 0.3%

Aluminium 2137 0.4%

Nickel 11180 0.4%

Lead 2440 0.6%

Zinc 3091 -0.6%

Others

DXY 91.79 -0.3%

US 10yr 2.24 -0.2%

CBOE VIX 9.91 0.3%

Overview

• Trump warns North Korea at UN meet

• Dollar edges higher

• US Senate could allow tax reform

• Earthquake strikes Mexico

Precious Metals

Gold traded in a narrow range overnight, as traders

set up into the Federal Open Market Committee

meeting beginning today. The U.S. central bank is

widely expected to announce on Wednesday that it

will begin paring its bond holdings, with reductions

likely to start in the coming months. In his first UN

speech last night, U.S. President Trump warned on

Tuesday that the US will be forced to "totally

destroy" North Korea unless Pyongyang backs down

from its nuclear standoff, mocking North Korean

leader Kim Jong Un as a "rocket man" on a suicide

mission. Unless North Korea backs down, he will have

no choice but to totally destroy North Korea. Gold is

at a short-term crossroad, as we have seen, are

consistent with the pattern over the past few

months. The market was positioned aggressively

from the long side and profit taking was to be

expected.

Wednesday, September 20, 2017

Commodities Daily

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CFTC data Speculative

Longs Change WoW

Gold 264934 15346

Silver 75147 13616

Copper 121287 -4089

Crude oil 157891 -12094

Nat gas 86416 6319

EUR/USD 86058 -10251

DXY -2191 1753

INVENTORIES Current W/W Chg. Units

Energy

Crude oil 468.24 5.89 MBbl

Gasoline 218.31 -8.43 MBbl

Distillate 144.55 -3.22 MBbl

Natural gas 3.31 0.09 TCF

Base Metals

Aluminium LME 1306650 -4150 MT

SHFE w/w 535630 18746 MT

Copper LME 300625 -2300 MT

SHFE w/w 166747 -6100 MT

Nickel LME 383502 30 MT

SHFE w/w 49955 -793 MT

Lead LME 162700 -200 MT

SHFE w/w 16568 -13282 MT

Zinc LME 267525 5425 MT

SHFE w/w 69663 -4339 MT

Precious metals

GOLD ETF 1709.7 4.84 MT

Silver ETF 19401 -38.97 MT

Base Metals

Base metals traded in a tight range for yet another day

ahead of a U.S. Fed policy meeting which may spell out

the near-term direction for the dollar. The global

nickel market tipped into a wider deficit in July as

demand from top stainless steel producer China

surged, data from INSG showed. Global demand for

refined nickel stood at 182,500 tonnes, outstripping

production of 177,800 tonnes, 10% jump in refined

demand from China. The deficit of 4,700 tonnes was

well above June's 400 tonne shortfall. For the first

seven months of the year, the global deficit for refined

nickel widened to 39,700 tonnes from 36,800 tonnes

in the first half. Premiums for LME lead in China's

bonded zones jumped $10 to $170-$190 amid

tightening domestic supply. Lead imports to China

have been profitable since early August, fuelled partly

by environmental inspections that caused some plants

to shut and solid demand from the battery sector.

Energy

Crude oil prices have been trading in narrow range,

but are choppy within the range. Today prices are

trading firm after Iraq's oil minister said OPEC and

other crude producers were considering extending or

even deepening a supply cut to curb a global glut,

showing a smaller than expected increase in U.S.

Inventories. Crude inventories rose by 1.4 MBPD

barrels in the week to 470.3mln, compared with

expectations for an increase of 3.5mln barrels. The

market remained buoyant ahead of Friday's meeting

between the OPEC and non OPEC producers to discuss

the state of their 1.8MBPD supply cut deal. Some

producers think the pact should be extended for three

or four months, others want an extension until the

end of 2018, while some, including Ecuador and Iraq,

think there should be another round of supply cuts.

MT- Metric Tonne, MBBL – Million Barrels, BCF – Billion Cubic Feet.

Commodities Daily

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Commodity Month Price %Chg.

Cardamom Oct 1152 -3.99%

Castor Seed Oct 4684 1.08%

Cocud Dec 1509 -0.98%

Cotton Oct 18480 -0.32%

CPO Sep 541.5 -1.06%

Coriander Oct 4843 1.83%

Guar Gum Oct 7978 3.99%

Guar Seed Oct 3762 3.64%

Jeera Sep 19675 0.59%

Mentha Oil Sep 1167 -1.55%

R M Seed Oct 3780 0.35%

Soyabean Oct 3095 0.19%

Soyoil Oct 670.9 -0.20%

Sugar Oct 3700 0.00%

Turmeric Oct 7478 -1.05%

Wheat Oct 1640 -0.06%

Commodity Expiry Price % Chg.

Malaysian Palm Oil Oct 2785 0.00%

US Soybean Nov 967.5 0.21%

US Soyoil Oct 34.49 -0.09%

US Soymeal Oct 306.1 0.36%

ICE US Cotton Oct 69.98 -0.61%

China Cotton Nov 15225 0.00%

US Sugar Sep 13.76 -3.84%

Agricultural Commodities

India's food grain production is expected to be around

last year's record level of 275.68 million tonnes despite

deficient rains as well as floods in some parts of the

country. The government has fixed a target of 274.55

million tonnes for ongoing 2017-18 crop year (July-June)

which is generally conservative.

The situation in parts of Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh

and Peninsular India, which witnessed less rain, has

improved in last two weeks, and the so called deficit is

corrected in the coming days.

Malaysian palm oil futures fell to their lowest in a week,

a fourth straight session of falls, due to a technical

correction and traders' expectations that export

demand will cool towards the end of the month. Long

holidays in China are coming soon, so most buying

activities may already be done. Palm oil exports from

Malaysia surged over 20% in the first half of September

from a month ago, led by strong gains in demand from

China, Europe and India.

Mentha oil futures traded lower on MCX as investors

and speculators trimmed their positions amid muted

demand from major consuming industries in the

domestic spot market. Further, ample stocks position on

higher supplies from major producing belts of Chandausi

in Uttar Pradesh, too influenced mentha oil prices.

Key cotton producing regions in central India are set for

a recovery in rainfall levels, easing concerns for farmers

who are betting on the fibre amid rising demand.

Overall rainfall in the country since June 1 is 6% below

the long-term average.

Commodities Daily

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Level playing Sheet

Commodity Exch. Expiry Close S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 Trend Conviction Intraday Range

Gold MCX Oct 29621 29480 29551 29616 29687 29752 Bearish Moderate 29584 - 29720

Gold Comex Oct 1307 1301 1304 1308 1310 1314 Bearish Moderate 1303 - 1309

Silver MCX Dec 40062 39570 39816 39982 40228 40394 Bearish Moderate 39899 - 40311

Silver Comex Oct 17.21 17.02 17.12 17.21 17.31 17.40 Bearish Moderate 17.16 - 17.35

Crude MCX Oct 3171 3122 3146 3191 3215 3260 Bearish Moderate 3134 - 3203

Crude Nymex Oct 49.90 49.06 49.48 50.15 50.57 51.24 Bearish Moderate 49 - 50

Nat Gas MCX Sep 201.5 199.4 200.4 202.2 203.2 205.0 Bullish Moderate 200 - 203

Copper MCX Nov 423.9 419.7 421.8 423.7 425.7 427.6 Flat Moderate 423 - 427

Zinc MCX Sep 200.7 196.9 198.8 199.8 201.7 202.7 Bullish High 199 - 202

Lead MCX Sep 154.6 149.0 151.8 154.1 156.9 159.2 Bullish High 153 - 158

Nickel MCX Sep 714.2 688.0 701.1 710.3 723.4 732.6 Bearish Moderate 706 - 728

Aluminium MCX Sep 135.3 131.9 133.6 134.7 136.4 137.6 Bullish High 134 - 137

Commodity Exch. Expiry Close S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 Trend Conviction Intraday Range

CARDAMOM NCDEX Oct 1,200 1,191 1,196 1,204 1,208 1,216 Bearish Moderate 1194 - 1206

CASTOR SEED NCDEX Oct 4,634 4,546 4,590 4,655 4,699 4,764 Bearish Moderate 4568 - 4677

COCUDAKL MCX Dec 1,524 1,495 1,510 1,529 1,544 1,563 Bearish Moderate 1503 - 1537

Cotton NCDEX Oct 18,540 18,253 18,397 18,543 18,687 18,833 Flat Moderate 18325 - 18615

CPO NCDEX Sep 547 544 546 548 549 552 Bullish Moderate 547 - 550

DHANIYA NCDEX Oct 4,756 4,659 4,707 4,744 4,792 4,829 Bearish Moderate 4683 - 4768

JEERA NCDEX Sep 19,560 19,307 19,433 19,592 19,718 19,877 Bearish Moderate 19370 - 19655

Guar Seed NCDEX Oct 3,630 3,506 3,568 3,642 3,704 3,778 Bearish Moderate 3537 - 3673

Guar Gum NCDEX Oct 8,496 8,387 8,442 8,504 8,559 8,621 Flat Moderate 8473 - 8590

MENTHA OIL MCX Sep 1,186 1,171 1,179 1,190 1,197 1,208 Bearish Moderate 1175 - 1193

R M Seed NCDEX Oct 3,767 3,732 3,750 3,777 3,795 3,822 Bearish Moderate 3741 - 3786

Soyabean NCDEX Oct 3,089 3,048 3,068 3,098 3,118 3,148 Bearish Moderate 3058 - 3108

SOYOIL MCX Oct 672 668 670 673 675 678 Bearish Moderate 669 - 674

TURMERIC NCDEX Oct 7,598 7,517 7,557 7,611 7,651 7,705 Bearish Moderate 7537 - 7631

WHEAT NCDEX Oct 1,641 1,632 1,637 1,643 1,648 1,654 Flat Moderate 1635 - 1646

Sugar NCDEX Oct 3,700 3,700 3,700 3,700 3,700 3,700 Bearish Moderate 3700 - 3700

Commodities Daily

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Navneet Damani

Research Analyst(Commodities)

Commodity Disclosure:

The following Disclosures are being made in compliance with the SEBI Research Analyst Regulations 2014 (herein after referred to as the Regulations). Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd. (MOSL) is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000000412. MOSL, the Research Entity (RE) as defined in the Regulations, is engaged in the business of providing Stock broking services, Investment Advisory Services, Depository participant services & distribution of various financial products. MOSL is a

subsidiary company of Motilal Oswal Financial Service Ltd. (MOFSL). MOFSL is a listed public company, the details in respect of which are available on www.motilaloswal.com. MOSL is registered with the Securities & Exchange Board of India (SEBI) and is a registered Trading Member with National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. (NSE) and Bombay Stock

Exchange Limited (BSE), Metropolitan Stock Exchange Of India Ltd. (MSE) for its stock broking activities & is Depository participant with Central Depository Services Limited (CDSL) & National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL) and is member of Association of Mutual Funds of India (AMFI) for distribution of financial products. One of the group companies of

MOSL is Motilal Oswal Commodities Broker Pvt. Ltd. (MOCBPL) which is a registered member with MCX and NCDEX in commodity segment. Details of associate entities of Motilal Oswal Securities Limited are available on the website at http://onlinereports.motilaloswal.com/Dormant/documents/Associate%20Details.pdf Pending Regulatory Enquiries against Motilal Oswal Securities Limited by SEBI: SEBI pursuant to a complaint from client Shri C.R. Mohanraj alleging unauthorized trading, issued a letter dated 29th April 2014 to MOSL notifying appointment of an

Adjudicating Officer as per SEBI regulations to hold inquiry and adjudge violation of SEBI Regulations; MOSL requested SEBI to provide all documents, records, investigation report relied upon by SEBI which were referred in Show Cause Notice and also sought personal hearing. The matter is currently pending.

Terms & Conditions:

1. This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and must not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to observe these restrictions.

2. This material is for the personal information of the authorized recipient and we are not soliciting any action based upon it. 3. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy any commodity or commodity derivative to any person in any jurisdiction where such an offer

or solicitation would be illegal. 4. It is for the general information of clients of MOSL and MOCBPL. It doesn’t constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives,

financial situations, or needs of individual clients. 5. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other

person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of MOSL. 6. The report is based on the facts, figures and information that are considered true, correct, reliable and accurate. 7. All such information and opinions are subject to change without notice.

8. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. MOSL will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report.

9. We have reviewed the report, and in so far as it includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable though its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. 10. Neither MOSL, nor any person connected with it, accepts any liability arising from the use of this document. 11. The recipients of this material should rely on their own investigations and take their own professional advice. Price and value of the commodity referred to in this material may

go up or down. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. 12. Certain transactions including those involving commodity derivatives involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. 13. Reports based on technical analysis centers on studying charts of a commodity’s price movement and trading volume as opposed to focusing on a commodity’s fundamentals and

as such may not match with a report on a commodity's fundamentals.

14. Proprietary trading desk of MOSL or its associates maintains arm’s length distance with Research Team as all the activities are segregated from MOSL research activity and therefore it can have an independent view with regards to subject commodity for which Research Team have expressed their views.

15. MOSL or its associates or Research Analyst or his relatives may have Open Position in subject commodity. 16. A graph of daily closing prices of commodities is available at http://www.moneyline.co.in/ 17. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward-looking statements

are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. 18. The commodities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own

investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. 19. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as it deems

necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult its own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment.

20. The Company reserves the right to make modifications and alternations to this statement as may be required from time to time without any prior approval. MOSL, its associates,

their directors and the employees may from time to time, effect or have effected an own account transaction in, or deal as principal or agent in or for the commodities mentioned in this document.

21. The views expressed are those of the analyst, and the Company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed therein. 22. The commodities described herein may or may not be eligible for trade in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may

come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction. Neither the Firm, not its directors, employees, agents or representatives shall be liable for any damages whether direct or indirect, incidental, special or consequential including lost revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection with the use of the information. The person accessing this information specifically agrees to exempt MOSL or any of its affiliates or employees from, any and all responsibility/liability arising from such misuse and agrees not to hold MOSL or any of its affiliates or employees responsible for any such misuse and further agrees to hold MOSL or any of its affiliates or employees free and harmless from all losses, costs, damages, expenses that may be suffered by the person accessing this information due to any errors and delays.

23. Certain transactions -including those involving futures, options, another derivative products as well as non-investment grade securities - involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors.

24. MOSL and its associate company(ies), their directors and Research Analyst and their relatives may (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the commodities mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such commodities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the commodity/ (ies) discussed herein or have other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. However

the same shall have no bearing whatsoever on the specific recommendations made by the analyst(s), as the recommendations made by the analyst(s) are completely independent of the views of the associates of MOSL even though there might exist an inherent conflict of interest in some of the commodities mentioned in the research report.

25. MOSL and it’s associates and Research Analyst have not received any compensation or other benefits in connection with the research report. Compensation of Research Analysts

is not based on any brokerage transactions generated by broking activities under Motilal Oswal group.

Registered Office Address: Motilal Oswal Tower, Rahimtullah Sayani Road, Opposite Parel ST Depot, Prabhadevi, Mumbai-400025; Tel No.: 022-3980 4263; www.motilaloswal.com. Correspondence Address: Palm Spring Centre, 2nd Floor, Palm Court Complex, New Link Road, Malad (West), Mumbai- 400 064. Tel No: 022 3080 1000. Compliance Officer: Neeraj Agarwal, Email Id: na@motilaloswal.com, Contact No.:022-30801085.

Registration details of group entities.: MOSL: NSE (Cash): INB231041238; NSE (F&O): INF231041238; NSE (CD): INE231041238; BSE (Cash): INB011041257; BSE(F&O): INF011041257; BSE(CD); MSE(Cash): INB261041231; MSE(F&O): INF261041231; MSE(CD): INE261041231; CDSL: IN-DP-16-2015; NSDL: IN-DP-NSDL-152-2000; Research Analyst:

INH000000412. AMFI: ARN 17397. Investment Adviser: INA000007100. Motilal Oswal Asset Management Company Ltd. (MOAMC): PMS (Registration No.: INP000000670) offers PMS and Mutual Funds products. Motilal Oswal Wealth Management Ltd. (MOWML): PMS (Registration No.: INP000004409) offers wealth management solutions. *Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd. is a distributor of Mutual Funds, PMS, Fixed Deposit, Bond, NCDs and IPO products. * Motilal Oswal Commodities Broker Pvt. Ltd. offers Commodities Products. * Motilal Oswal Real Estate Investment Advisors II Pvt. Ltd. offers Real Estate products. * Motilal Oswal Private Equity Investment Advisors Pvt. Ltd. offers Private Equity products.

Commodities Daily

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