Need Assessment T&D
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Transcript of Need Assessment T&D
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FOCUS GROUP-DELPHI
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Delphi defined..
An organized method for collecting views and information
pertaining to a specific area;
A method that allows dialogue between geographically separated
experts while serving an effective means for learning;
Gathering a group of experts to forecast events and assess complex
issues;
Collective human intelligence;
A process of exploring assessing and evaluating.
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Delphi an historical perspective
Developed in 1953 by Olaf Helmer & Norman
Dalkey to address military forecasting.
1960s A forecasting instrument in many
American industries & human services.
1970s Critics questioned the scientific
respectability of Delphi saying it lacked a
scientific research paradigm.
Early 1980s In education alone, over 441
Delphi dissertations.0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1960's 1970's 1980's 1990's
Delphi Studies
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Delphi - Basic Findings
The Delphi process has been used in various fields of study
such as
Program planning,
Needs assessment,
Policy determination,
Resource utilization.
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Delphi Technique - Characteristics
Method for consensus-building by using a series of
questionnaires to collect data from a panel of selected subjects
Employs multiple iterations designed to develop a consensus of
opinion concerning a specific topic.
Iterations refer to the feedback process.
Feedback process allows and encourages the selected Delphi
participants to reassess their initial judgments about the
information provided in previous iterations.
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Delphi Technique Characteristics(Cont)
Primary characteristics and advantages of the Delphi process
Subject anonymity which can reduce the effects of
dominant individuals.
Controlled feedback process to reduce the effect of noise.
Ability to use statistical analysis techniques is a practicewhich further reduces the potential of group pressure for
conformity.
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Delphi Stages Delphi Processes
Investigators convert the
collected information into a
well-structured questionnaire.
Round 2: Second
questionnaire is given to rateor rank-order items to
establish preliminary
priorities among items.
Areas of disagreement andagreement are identified
Round 3: To specify thereasons for remaining outside
the consensus, an opportunity to
clarify both the information and
their judgments of the relative
importance of the items.
A slight increase in thedegree of consensus can
be expected
Round 4: Study ResultsOne collective consensus
is established.
Delphi Method
Round 1: Subjectsare chosen. Begins with an
open-ended questionnaire.
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Subject Selection
Three groups of people are well qualified to be
subjects of a Delphi study
The top management decision makers who will utilize the
outcomes of the Delphi study
The professional staff members together with their support
team; and
The respondents to the Delphi questionnaire whose judgments
are being sought
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Delphi +s
Opportunities for large number of people to participate;
Focus is on ideas rather than individuals;
Anonymity for participants which make contributions of ideas
a safe activity;
Opportunities for participants to reconsider their opinions;
Allows for identification of priorities.
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Delphi -s
Large amount of time to conduct several rounds;
The complexity of data analysis;
The difficulty of maintaining participant enthusiasm throughout process;
The problem of keeping statements value free and clearly defined;
Self reporting data is subject to respondents biases and memories;
The bandwagon effect of a majority opinion;
The power of persuasion or prestigious individuals to shape group
opinion;
The vulnerability of group dynamics to manipulation;
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Bell Canada was one of the first businesses to adapt the Delphi
technique to its forecasting activities.
Delphi technique have addressed the emergence of electric and
hybrid gas-electric automobiles, predicted tourism in certain
locales, and identified the potential for sophisticated technology
waste-management systems.
Delphi projects will be used to promote innovative ideas regarding
the future of space travel, colonizing other planets, etc.
Real-Time Examples.
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THANK YOU
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