National Opinion Poll: February 2018 - Millward Brown · National Opinion Poll: February 2018 ......

1

National Opinion Poll: February 2018- for Publication on 18th February 2018

41111511/PM

2

Introduction

A National Public Opinion Poll was conducted on behalf of The Sunday Independent to be published on Sunday

18th February 2018.

The topics covered included party political support, satisfaction with Government and party leaders, the upcoming

Referendum on the 8th Amendment and a Potential Presidential Election.

Interviews were conducted face-to-face, in-home, with those aged 18+.

Quota controls were set on gender, age, social class and region to mirror the 18+ population profile.

970 interviews were conducted at 64 sampling points nationwide.

Interviews were carried out between 6th – 14th February 2018.

Data was weighted to reflect the adult population aged 18+.

The margin of error for this opinion poll is +/- 3.1%.

3

Introduction

The survey results presented here are derived from The Independent Newspaper Group/ Kantar

Millward Brown Poll. The poll was conducted among a sample of 970 adults representative of the

approximate 3.57 million adults aged 18 and over - interviewed on a face-to-face basis in-home at

64 sampling points throughout the Republic of Ireland. The margin of error for this opinion poll is

+/- 3.1%

The 970 interviews in the poll were carried out between 6th and 14th February 2018.

The poll was conducted in accordance with the guidelines set by ESOMAR and AIMRO

(European and Irish Market and Opinion Research governing bodies). Extracts from the report

may be quoted or published on condition that due acknowledgement is given to Kantar Millward

Brown and The Sunday Independent.

© Kantar Millward Brown & The Sunday Independent 2018.

POLL

The Results

5

A snapshot which favours Fine Gael, while Fianna Fáil must mind the gap

This latest Sunday Independent/Kantar Millward Brown opinion poll, conducted up until Wednesday of this week, coincides with a relatively

happy time for the Government, and this is reflected in these results. The headline figure sees Fine Gael rise six points to 36pc since our

last comparable poll in summer 2017.

This represents its highest outing so far in this series of opinion polls, and is a ten-point increase on its General Election showing of two

years ago. Of course, this is a snapshot, with no General Election on the immediate horizon (even though these results may add impetus to

the more hawkish elements in FG to call an early election). Remember the party had momentum going into the 2016 election, which

dissipated quickly.

The backdrop to this poll is continuingly positive economic indicators, Brexit (which in the short term is ironically proving to be a boon for the

party) and more recently, the announcement of the Project Ireland 2040 plan.

Brexit as a benefit to FG is largely down to the success of, and preparedness of the Department of Foreign Affairs over the past two years. It

has enabled us to play hard ball with the UK, safe in the knowledge that the EU is in our corner. Thus, time and time again, Leo Varadkar in

particular can don the green jersey and punch above his weight in negotiations. No doubt the UK Government is rueing their lack of

foresight on this front.

The 2040 plan, which was being drip-fed to the public during the course of interviewing, provides the mood music to this poll. Regardless of

rural concerns, there is undeniably a feel-good factor generated by the proposal announced. How much will be achieved is a moot point,

and whilst it is both easy and understandable to be cynical (look no further than Bertie’s Transport 21 Plan), there is still the undoubted

attraction of being promised shiny new things.

Fianna Fail remain relatively steady at 28pc, which given the circumstances outlined is not a bad result. However, just as FG backbenchers

will be buoyant, there will be some within FF feeling edgy. Letting too much clear blue water develop between the parties is always a

danger - remember, exactly one year ago, the party held an eight-point lead. It is now an eight-point deficit.

6

A snapshot which favours Fine Gael, while Fianna Fáil must mind the gap

The issue is, how can the party resurrect its standing when there are no obvious bad news stories on the horizon for the Government

(notwithstanding the ongoing housing, homeless and health storm, which, to a certain extent, the Government has weathered). Coupled with

a giveaway budget in October, time is running out for FF to bridge the gap.

Many have said that Micheal Martin’s best opportunity to strike was when Enda Kenny was a lame duck Taoiseach. With Leo at the helm,

the ground rules have changed. Whilst Theresa May going to the country on the back of poll results backfired spectacularly last year, one

suspects that Leo would not make the same campaigning mistakes.

Sinn Fein remain stubbornly rooted on 20pc. The impact of Mary Lou’s coronation at this stage has been negligible.

Labour will be bitterly disappointed to fall back to four percent. Even though they (and in particular Alan Kelly) have been effective more

recently in the Dail, they are simply not gaining any traction. Come the next General Election, they must pick their battles carefully. As it

stands now, they are being squeezed by the electorate to the point of irrelevance, with other parties gladly picking up the slack.

The wane of Independence and smaller parties continues. It seems that there is a large, and fickle, floating vote available within the

electorate; Fine Gael “borrowed” them from Fianna Fail in 2011, “lost” them again in 2016, and now seem to be more attractive to them in

2018.

The rise in FG’s popularity is mirrored in satisfaction with Government. Nearly half (49pc) are happy with how the country is being run. This

level of support is at its highest in this series of polls, and is at a level not seen since before the crash, 10 years ago. Support is highest

among the Party faithful (82pc of FG supporters), the farming community (76pc), more affluent ABs (62pc) and those over the age of 65

(57%). Interestingly many of these cohorts are the most likely to turn out to vote on Polling Day. Dubliners and those living in Conn/Ulster

are also more complimentary in their appraisal.

7

Are we heading towards Stalingrad?

Looking at party leaders, satisfaction with Leo Varadkar has surged nine-points, and now stands at 58pc – over twice the support that Enda

Kenny received at any time from before the election in 2016. That said, Micheal Martin hasn’t fared too badly either – he is up three points

to 48pc; his highest approval rating. His honest stance on the 8th Amendment may well have boosted his ratings (albeit it was not to

everybody’s taste).

Mary Lou Gains the nod from 39pc. This is a higher rating than Gerry Adams ever achieved, but it is still early days – she will need to stamp

her own identity onto the leadership of her party amid a suspicious public questioning who is really pulling the strings.

The only leader to see a drop in support is Brendan Howlin, reflecting the general malaise that is associated with all things Labour. He is in

the job for close on 18 months, and this (22pc) is his lowest rating so far. Like his party, he too is failing to gain traction with the electorate.

One in four (24pc) of his own party, albeit off a small base, are dissatisfied with his performance, noticeably higher than other party leaders.

A final metric to suggest that the tailwinds are behind Fine Gael is our party toxicity question. That is, which party would the public not vote

for? While Fianna Fail continue to be the least toxic party (just 17pc explicitly state they would not vote for them), a more interesting trend is

that Fine Gael is also becoming more palatable. Exactly this time last year, a third of the electorate (32pc) would not vote for them. This

dropped to 25pc during the summer, and now stands at 22pc. A 10-point reversal in 12 months. The omens again look good.

Moving away from party politics, the only show in town over the next few months will be the 8th Amendment referendum. This referendum

will be both Conservative and Liberal Ireland’s equivalent of Stalingrad. The Same Sex Marriage Referendum was simply the curtain raiser –

to paraphrase the late Seamus Brennan, we’re playing senior hurling now.

For this latest poll, we gauged support of a repeal of the 8th (in general terms), in what circumstances abortion is acceptable, and specifically

attitudes towards the 12 week abortion proposal. On the face of it, it seems that support for reform is holding up strongly. Nearly two in three

(63pc) agree that repeal is desired, versus 24pc saying it is not, and 13pc not offering an opinion. Stripping out the don’t knows, this equates

to a 72:28 majority. Of course, as minds focus, there can be opposing motivations for wanting to hold a referendum.

8

Are we heading towards Stalingrad?

It is more instructive to ask of when abortion is considered acceptable. We have tracked distress scenarios (rape, suicide, mother’s health

and fatal foetal abnormalities) over the years, with our last data point being prior to the general election.

On each occasion, and again in this latest poll, there has been clear majority in each of these cases to allow abortion. It is interesting to

note that in this latest poll, support on all such scenarios has softened slightly.

More importantly, in this most recent poll, we asked if the recommendation to allow abortion without restriction up to 12 weeks goes too far,

not far enough or is about right. Four in ten say it is about right, versus 33pc saying it goes too far. A further 8pc say it doesn’t go far

enough, with 19pc undecided. This equates to a ratio of 48:52 in favour of Advocates of the plan versus Those against/those not sure.

This suggests that the battle ahead may be not as clear-cut a result as the headline figures suggest. It is too simple to assume that

Undecideds will breakdown evenly. We have seen in the past that in referenda, many who are unsure of a constitutional change, simply

revert to the comfort zone of the Status Quo, especially if it doesn’t affect them directly. In addition, as we saw in the same sex marriage

referendum, when the odds are stacked in favour of one Arguments’ side, then waverers may be reluctant to show their hand, even if they

are tending to the opposite direction.

These findings suggest that the upcoming referendum is one where no side can take anything for granted. The wording of this plebiscite will

be critical. However, either way, it is going to be an emotive and aggressive campaign, which will define how we see ourselves as a nation.

National Opinion Poll:Party Support Trended Questions

10

Party Support – First Preference – Including Don’t Knows

Q. If a General Election were to take place tomorrow, to which Party or independent candidate

would you give your first preference vote?

Opinion PollFeb 2018Including

Don’t Knows%

Opinion PollFeb 2018Excluding

Don’t Knows%

26

7

24

3

18

243

14

Independents/others

GeneralElection Result

2016%

Fianna Fáil

Fine Gael

Labour

Sinn Féin

Green Party

Renua IrelandAAA-PBP

Social Democrats

29

3

22

2

16

8

20

36

4

28

2

20

11Others

Fianna Fáil

Fine Gael

Labour

Sinn Féin

Green Party

Base: All Aged 18+ (970)

Others

Fianna Fáil

Fine Gael

Labour

Sinn Féin

Don’t know

Green Party

11

Party Support First Preference (excluding don’t knows)



Base: All giving a first preference

26 29 27 28 27 27 30 27 29 25 25 22 22 25 25 2924

29 27 26 30 29 2530

36

2928

25 27 27 2426

2122

20 2120 18

19 19

2323

2422 24

26 27 3329

28

19 1921 19 19 21

1622 20

24 22 2621

26 24

2121

2121

14

20 20 20 2020

8 88 10 9 9 12

8 6 7 9 7

5

6 86

7

76

7

7 8 6 74

1 12

1 1 11

2 2 1 1 1

2

1 3 11

11

3

3 2 2 2 218 15 18 14 17 18 15

20 21 23 23 2332

23 20 20 2419

22 27

14 15 14 13 11

Independents/others*

Green Party

Labour

Sinn Féin

Fianna Fáil

Fine Gael

* Includes all other parties

Independents/Others:October

2016February

2017July2017

February2018

AAA-PBP 2% 3% 1% 1%

Social Democrats 1% 2% * 1%

Independent Candidates/Other Parties

6% 4% 7% 6%

Independent Alliance 5% 5% 5% 3%

June20th–28th

2013%

Aug3rd-12th

2013%

Aug17th-27th

2013%

Sep13th–25th

2013%

Sep 30th -

Oct 9th

%

Nov 3rd-13th

%

Jan15th-24th

2014 %

Feb19th-28th

2014 %

Apr5th-15th

2014 %

Jul18th–30th

2014 %

Sep9th-18th

2014 %

Oct 21st–31st

2014%

Dec8th-18th

2014%

Jan 30th-Feb 9th

2015%

Mar 24th - Apr 2nd

2015%

19th-26th

June 2015

%

19th-30th

July 2015

%

28th Oct-6th Nov

2015%

25th Jan-4th Feb2016

%

GeneralElection

2016%

18th -30th

June2016

%

8th-20th

Oct2016

%

6th-16th

Feb2017

%

9th-21st July2017

%

6th-14th

Feb2018

%

12Q. If a General Election were to take place tomorrow, to which Party or independent candidate would

you give your first preference vote?

Party Support First Preference (excluding don’t knows)

26

2927 28 27 27

30

2729

25 25

22 22

25 25

29

24

2927 26

30 29

25

30

36

29 28

2527 27

2426

21 2220 21 20

18 19 19

23 23 2422

2426 27

33

29 28

19 1921

19 1921

16

2220

2422

26

21

2624

21 21 21 21

14

20 20 20 20 20

8 8 810 9 9

12

86 7

97

5 68

6 7 7 6 7 7 86 7

4

1 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 2 13

1 1 1 13 3 2 2 2 2

18

15

18

14

17 18

15

20 2123 23 23

32

23

20 20

24

19

22

27

14 15 14 1311

-

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Jun 20th-28th 2013

Aug 3rd-12th 2013

Aug 17th-27th 2013

Sep 13th-25th 2013

Sep 30th-Oct 9th

Nov 3rd-13th

Jan 15th-24th 2014

Feb 19th-24th 2014

Apr 5th-15th 2014

Jul 18th-30th 2014

Sep 9th-18th 2014

Oct 21st-31st 2014

Dec 8th-18th 2014

Jan 29th-Feb 9th

2015

Mar 24th-Apr 2nd

2015

19th-26thJun 2015

19th-30thJul 2015

28th Oct-6th Nov

2015

25th Jan -4th Feb

2016

GeneralElection

2016

18th-30thJune 2016

8th-20thOct 2016

6th-16thFeb 2017

9th-21stJuly 2017

6th-14thFeb 2018

Fine Gael Fianna Fail Sinn Fein Labour Green Party Independents/Others*


Independents/Others:October

2016February

2017July 2017

February2018

Solidarity-PBP 2% 3% 1% 1%

Social Democrats 1% 2% * 1%

Independent Candidates/ Other Parties

6% 4% 7% 6%

Independent Alliance 5% 5% 5% 3%


13

Trended Party Support First Preference (excluding don’t knows)



28272730

27292525

22222525

2924

2927263029

2530

36

27272426

21222021201819192323242224262627

332928

19192116

22202422

2621

262421212121

142020202020

10 9 912

8 6 7 9 7 5 6 8 6 7 7 6 7 7 8 6 74

141718

152021232323

32

232020

2419

2227

1417161513

INDEPENDENTSOTHERS*

*Includes all others (including Greens)


14Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government is running the country?

Satisfaction with the Government has risen sharply since again. Nearly half are now happy

with its performance

45%49%

7%

Don’t know(9%)

Dissatisfied(50%)

Satisfied(40%)

One in Two are happy

( ) = July 2017 Results

HIGHER AMONG %

Fine Gael Supporters 82

Farming Community 76

ABs 62

65+ 57

Conn/Ulster Residents 56

Dublin Residents 54

35-44 53

Males 52


HIGHER AMONG %

Sinn Féin Supporters 70

Independents/Others Supporters 63

55-64 54

DEs 54

Fianna Fáil Supporters 51

45-54 50

Uncommitted Voters 50

ROL Residents 49

15

Satisfaction with Government Over Time – There has been a significant uplift in the public’s

appraisal of the Government’s performance; Satisfaction is at its highest level seen so far

75 73 72 71 73 7468 71

66 6962

73 71 68 6963 67

60 62 60 62 64

5045

17 19 19 2021 19

23 2024

2327

2119 23

2629 25

32 2928

31 27

40 49

7 7 10 9 6 7 10 9 9 8 116

9 9 5 8 8 8 9 118 9 10

7

Dissatisfied

Satisfied

Don’t know

2013Results

2014Results

2015Results

2016Results

2017Results

June20th–28th

2013%

Aug3rd-12th

2013%

Aug17th-27th

2013%

Sep13th–25th

2013%

Sep 30th -

Oct 9th

2013%

Nov 3rd-13th

2013%

Jan15th-24th

2014 %

Feb19th-28th

2014 %

Apr5th-15th

2014 %

Jul18th–30th

2014 %

Sep9th-18th

2014 %

Oct 21st–31st

2014%

Dec8th-18th

2014%

Jan 30th-Feb 9th

2015%

Mar 24th - Apr 2nd

2015%

19th-26th

June 2015

%

19th-30th

July 2015

%

28th Oct-6th Nov 2015

%

25th Jan-4th Feb2016

%

18th -30th

June2016

%

8th-20th

Oct2016

%

6th-16th

Feb2017

%

9th-21st

July2017

%

6th-14th

Feb2018

%


2018Results

16

Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with Leo Varadkar as Taoiseach?

Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Brendan Howlin is doing his job as leader of Labour?

Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Michéal Martin is doing his job as leader of Fianna Fáil?

Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mary Lou McDonald is doing his job as leader of Sinn

Féin?

Satisfaction with Party Leaders


21 24 27 3225 31 27 27 29 27

4958

22 23 25 26 20 24 22 27 25 26 28 22 24 29 30 36 32 32 27

43 43 44 45 48

23 29 32 30 30 27 27 31 29 30 35 39

69 64 6759

66 60 62 63 59 62

28 29

62 61 6557

65 62 62

43 47 48 43 4856

4957

45 49 49 4838 40 40 36 36

5750 56 52 51 55 51 51 51 54

4437

Joan Burton Michéal Martin Gerry AdamsBrendan Howlin

Dissatisfied

Satisfied

Don’t know

Dec’14%

Feb’15%

Mar/Apr’15%

Jun’15%

Jul’15%

Oct/Nov’15%

Feb’16%

Jun’16%

Oct’16%

Feb‘17%

Jul‘17%

Feb‘18%

Dec’14%

Feb’15%

Mar/Apr’15%

Jun’15%

Jul’15%

Oct/Nov’15%

Feb’16%

Jun’16%

Oct’16%

Feb‘17%

Jul‘17%

Feb‘18%

Dec’14%

Feb’15%

Mar/Apr’15%

Jun’15%

Jul’15%

Oct/Nov’15%

Feb’16%

Jun’16%

Oct’16%

Feb‘17%

Jul‘17%

Feb‘18%

Dec’14%

Feb’15%

Mar/Apr’15%

Jun’15%

Jul’15%

Oct/Nov’15%

Feb’16%

Jun’16%

Oct’16%

Feb‘17%

Jul‘17%

Feb‘18%

Enda Kenny Leo Varadkar Mary Lou McDonald

(10) (12) (7) (9) (9) (9) (11) (11) (12) (11) (24) (13) (16) (16) (11) (16) (14) (14) (16) (30) (27) (26) (29) (30) (20) (22) (13) (19) (19) (20) (25) (18) (18) (16) (19) (16) (20) (21) (12) (18) (19) (18) (21) (18) (19) (16) (22) (24)

17Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with Leo Varadkar as Taoiseach?

Satisfaction with An Taoiseach Leo Varadkar

29% 58%

13%

Don’t know(24%)

Dissatisfied(28%)

Satisfied(49%)


HIGHER AMONG %



ABs 71


35-44 63

Rural Residents 62

65+ 61

Labour Supporters* 61

HIGHER AMONG %



DEs 37

55-64 35

45-54 33

Males 32

Munster Residents 32

Urban Residents 32



*Caution – small base size

18Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Brendan Howlin is doing his job as leader of Labour?

Satisfaction with Brendan Howlin

48% 22%

30% Don’t know(29%)

Dissatisfied(43%) Satisfied

(28%)


HIGHER AMONG %





45-54 25

HIGHER AMONG %


45-54 57

Dublin Residents 57

Independents/Others

Supporters 54

Males 53

ABs 52

Urban Residents 52


55-64 51



19Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Michéal Martin is doing his job as leader of Fianna Fáil?

Satisfaction with Michéal Martin

HIGHER AMONG %




ABC1s 55

65+ 53


35-54 51

Rural Residents 51


36%

48%

16%

Don’t know(19%)

Dissatisfied(36%) Satisfied

(45%)

HIGHER AMONG %


45-54 41

55-64 41

Independents/Others

Supporters41

Males 40

C2DES 40


Dublin Residents 39




20Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Gerry Adams is doing his job as leader of Sinn Féin?

Satisfaction with Mary Lou McDonald

HIGHER AMONG %



25-34 43

Males 42

DEs 42

37%39%

24%Don’t know(22%*)

Dissatisfied(44%*) Satisfied

(35%*)

HIGHER AMONG %


Dublin Residents 47


45-54 45


Independents/Others

Supporters44

65+ 43


( *) = July 2017 Results for Gerry Adams



21

Satisfaction with Party Leaders X Party Support

Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with Leo Varadkar as Taoiseach?Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Brendan Howlin is doing his job as leader of Labour?Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Michéal Martin is doing his job as leader of Fianna Fáil?Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Gerry Adams is doing his job as leader of Sinn Féin?

58%

22%

48%

39%

Leo Varadkar (49)

Brendan Howlin (28)

Michéal Martin (45)

# Mary Lou McDonald (35)

Total

29%

48%

36%

37%

10 34 32 49 43

50 24 52 59 54

40 32 16 61 41

50 45 41 10 44

Supporters%

Supporters*%

Supporters%

Supporters%

Independent/ Other PartySupporters*

%

86 61 58 37 46

29 70 27 11 16

51 60 80 23 45

29 36 39 83 32

Leo Varadkar (28)

Brendan Howlin (43)

Michéal Martin (36)

# Mary Lou McDonald (44)


Dissatisfied

Satisfied

# Previously Gerry Adams



22

Which Parties are most toxic to whom? Fianna Fáil remain the least toxic of the main parties,

with Fine Gael also becoming more palatable to the electorate

Q. Which of the following parties or political groupings would you NOT consider voting for in any

upcoming election?

()=previous results

WOULD NOT

CONSIDER



22%

24%

17%

36%

21%

22%

18%

Feb

2016

June

2016

Oct

2016

Feb

2017

July

2017

Fine Gael (34) (35) (32) (32) (25)

Labour (31) (28) (22) (24) (25)

Fianna Fáil (24) (25) (21) (21) (18)

Sinn Féin (37) (40) (38) (36) (34)

Solidarity/People Before Profit (16) (17) (18) (22) (24)

Green Party (n/a) (18) (17) (20) (24)

Social Democrats (9) (8) (10) (14) (19)

Feb

2018Supporters

%Supporters*

%Supporters

%Supporters

%

Independent/ Other partySupporters*

%

- 33 28 56 38

18 - 36 37 35

14 26 - 47 25

52 38 58 - 33

27 22 28 17 18

21 28 32 28 17

22 13 21 17 21


• Additional Issues for

publication:

The 8th Amendment and a

Potential Presidential Election

24Q. Are you personally in favour, or against, holding a referendum to repeal the 8th

amendment to the Constitution, which currently gives equal right to life to the

mother and the foetus?

Nearly two in three support a referendum on the 8th Amendment


56 5664 66

5663

1913

1819

22

24

2531

18 1522

13

In favour

Against

Don’t know

September2014

%

February2015

%

March/April2015

%

June2015

%

Oct/Nov2015

%

HIGHER AMONG %

35-44 78

18-24 74

Females 18-44 72

Dublin Residents 71


ABC1 69



25-34 67


HIGHER AMONG %

65+ 41



DEs 28

Females 27


Feb2018

%


25Q. Under which of the following circumstances, if any, do you feel that abortion is

acceptable in Ireland?

Circumstances where abortion is acceptable – a summary

5853 53

60 60 61 6055

72 71 68 69 6772

68 65

77 78

69 72 70 7268

6369 69

6468 67 69

6458

26 28 3034 32 31 31 28

63 64

55 54

1723 26

20 21 19 2123

10 1416 13 18

1316

17

8 8

14 10 14 1314

169 11

17 10 1414

1519

40

4545 38 41 43 43

44

18 18

20 23

16 1616 13

1513 14

1411

9 1211

10 9 1111

9 8 12 1113 9 12

13 15 14 1514

14 1115

15

2519

2020 20 18 20

20

14 1017 15

8 8 5 8 4 7 5 8 7 6 57 4 6 6 7 6 5 5 7

46 6 8 7 6 4

75 6 6 8 9 8 5 9 7 9 6 8 5 8 8 8

Yes,

acceptable

No,

unacceptable

It depends

Don’t know


Where there is the threat of the

mother’s suicide

In a case of when a woman has become

pregnant as a result of rape

Where there is a medical risk to the mother’s life other

than suicide

Where there is a threat to the long term health of the

mother

Where the mother decides to have an abortion for other

reasons

Where the unborn child

has been diagnosed with fatal

foetal abnormality

Feb2013

%

EarlyMay2013

%

LateMay2013

%

Sep2014

%

Mar/Apr2015

%

Feb2013

%

EarlyMay2013

%

LateMay2013

%

Sep2014

%

Mar/Apr2015

%

Feb2013

%

EarlyMay2013

%

LateMay2013

%

Sep2014

%

Mar/Apr2015

%

Mar/Apr2015

%

June2015

%

June2015

%

June2015

%

19th-26th

June2015

%

Oct/Nov2015

%

Oct/Nov2015

%

Oct/Nov2015

%

Oct/Nov2015

%

Feb2018

%

Feb2018

%

Feb2018

%

Feb2018

%Feb2013

%

EarlyMay2013

%

LateMay2013

%

Sep2014

%

Mar/Apr2015

%

Feb2013

%

EarlyMay2013

%

LateMay2013

%

Sep2014

%

Mar/Apr2015

%

June2015

%

June2015

%

Oct/Nov2015

%

Oct/Nov2015

%

Feb2018

%

Feb2018

%

26Q. Under which of the following circumstances, if any, do you feel that abortion is acceptable in Ireland?

Is abortion acceptable where there is a threat of suicide? A slim majority believe it is.

23%

55%

8%

14%

HIGHER AMONG %

65+ 37




Rural Residents 27

Females 26

DEs 26

( )= November 2015 Results


Don’t know(5%)

It depends(14%)

THREAT OF SUICIDE

No, Unacceptable(21%)

Yes, Acceptable (60%)

HIGHER AMONG %

18-24 66



ABs 63

35-44 61

Dublin Residents 60


Is abortion acceptable when pregnancy is a result of rape?

Two in three agree with one in six opposing such a scenario

HIGHER AMONG %


18-24 74


25-34 73

35-44 73

ABC1s 71

Dublin Residents 70


Urban Residents 68

17%

65%

7%

11%

HIGHER AMONG %

65+ 31



Rural Residents 22


DEs 21



Don’t know(6%)

It depends(11%)

No, Unacceptable(16%) Yes, Acceptable

(68%)

PREGNANCY AS A RESULT OF RAPE



Is abortion acceptable when there is a medical risk to the mothers life other than suicide? Just

under two in three believe this to be the case

HIGHER AMONG %


35-44 72


25-34 69

ABC1s 68

18-24 66

16%

63%

8%

13%

HIGHER AMONG %


Independents/Others

Supporters24

65+ 23

55-64 20





MEDICAL RISK TO MOTHERS LIFE

(other than suicide)

Don’t know(6%)

It depends(12%)



Is abortion acceptable when there is a threat to the long term health of the mother? Again,

there was been some slippage in support

HIGHER AMONG %

18-24 67

35-44 67



25-34 63

ABC1s 63

Dublin Residents 63


19%

58%

8%

15%

HIGHER AMONG %



65+ 24

Females 22



Don’t know(6%)

It depends(15%)



THREAT TO LONG TERM HEALTH OF

MOTHER



Is abortion acceptable when the mother decides for other reasons? Less than three in ten are

comfortable with this proposition

HIGHER AMONG %

Dublin Residents 50


35-44 36

25-34 35


18-24 33

ABC1s 33

Urban Residents 32

45-54 31

44%28%

8%

20%

HIGHER AMONG %

65+ 59



55-64 49


Independents/Others

Supporters49

Rural Residents 48


DEs 47



Don’t know(6%)

It depends(20%)

No, Unacceptable(43%) Yes, Acceptable

(31%)

MOTHER DECIDES TO HAVE ABORTION FOR

OTHER REASONS



Is abortion acceptable in the event of fatal foetal abnormality? A slim majority believe it is, with

nearly one in four disgreeing

HIGHER AMONG %

18-24 64

35-44 62




Dublin Residents 59

25-34 58

ABC1s 57

23%

54%

8%

15%

HIGHER AMONG %

65+ 34

ABs 28



Don’t know(8%)

It depends(17%)



UNBORN CHILD HAS BEEN DIAGNOSED WITH

A FATAL FOETAL ABNORMALITY

32Q. The Oireachtas Committee on the Eighth Amendment has recommended that Abortion should be

available without restriction up to 12 weeks of pregnancy. Do you think that this recommendation

goes too far, not far enough, or is about right?

Opinions on the 12 week Abortion Proposal. One in three have reservations, and there is a

substantial minority undecided

HIGHER AMONG %


25-34 13

C1s 13

Dublin Residents 18

Urban Residents 12

33%

8%

19%40%

HIGHER AMONG %

65+ 47


DEs 42


55-64 39

Rural Residents 39



Independents/Others

Supporters37

Females 36



Too far

OPINIONS ON THE 12 WEEK ABORTION

PROPOSAL

Don’t knowAbout right

Not far enough


33Q. It has been seven years since the last presidential election, and there is one due in 2018. Would

you like to have a presidential election this year, or would you prefer to see Michael D. Higgins

serve a second term without an election being called?

Nearly half want Michael D to stay on without the need for a Presidential Election

46% 39%

6%8%



Don’t knowIt depends

Prefer to see Michael D Higgins stay on for another term without the need for an Election

Prefer to have a Presidential Election

NO APPETITE FOR A PRESIDENTIAL

ELECTION

3441111511/PM

For more information, please contact: Paul Moran [email protected] 087 286 0773

6 Ely Place Dublin 2

t. +353 (1) 297 4500 | www.millwardbrown.com/ie

National Opinion Poll: February 2018 - Millward Brown · National Opinion Poll: February 2018 ......

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