Referendum Baseline Public Opinion Poll July 2010
description
Transcript of Referendum Baseline Public Opinion Poll July 2010
![Page 1: Referendum Baseline Public Opinion Poll July 2010](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081603/5681492f550346895db66ce1/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
© 2010. Synovate Ltd. All rights reserved.
The concepts and ideas submitted to you herein are the intellectual property of Synovate Ltd. They are strictly of confidential nature and are submitted to you under the understanding that they are to be considered by you in the strictest of confidence and that no use shall be made of the said concepts and ideas, including communication to any third party without Synovate’s express prior consent and/or payment of related professional services fees in full.
Steadman now Synovate
Referendum Baseline Public Opinion Poll
July 2010
Date Published: 23rd July 2010
![Page 2: Referendum Baseline Public Opinion Poll July 2010](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081603/5681492f550346895db66ce1/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Methodology
![Page 3: Referendum Baseline Public Opinion Poll July 2010](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081603/5681492f550346895db66ce1/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
3Referendum Baseline Poll July 2010© Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate
Objective of the Survey
The objective of the survey was to assess voters’ views on issues regarding the draft
constitution including: sources of information about it, the position of religious leaders,
and possible violence. The results should contribute to a deeper understanding of the
processes of public opinion formation and decision-making by ordinary Kenyans and
inform responses to challenges in the post-referendum environment.
![Page 4: Referendum Baseline Public Opinion Poll July 2010](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081603/5681492f550346895db66ce1/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
4Referendum Baseline Poll July 2010© Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate
Poll Methodology
Dates of pollingDates of polling July 11th – July 17th
Sample SizeSample Size 6005 respondents
Sampling methodologySampling methodology Random, Multi-stage stratified using PPS
UniverseUniverseRecently registered voters by IIEC
Data collection Data collection methodologymethodology
Structured Face-to-Face interviews at the household level
Sampling errorSampling error +/-1.6 with a 95% confidence level
![Page 5: Referendum Baseline Public Opinion Poll July 2010](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081603/5681492f550346895db66ce1/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
5Referendum Baseline Poll July 2010© Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate
Sample Distribution
Province National Population distribution (over 18 years)
Distribution of registered voters (IIEC Register)
Survey Sample distribution
Nairobi 10% 10% 10%
Central 14% 16% 16%
Coast 9% 8% 8%
Eastern 16% 16% 16%
North Eastern 3% 2% 2%
Nyanza 14% 14% 14%
Rift Valley 24% 24% 24%
Western 11% 11% 11%
![Page 6: Referendum Baseline Public Opinion Poll July 2010](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081603/5681492f550346895db66ce1/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Familiarity with the proposed Draft
![Page 7: Referendum Baseline Public Opinion Poll July 2010](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081603/5681492f550346895db66ce1/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
7Referendum Baseline Poll July 2010© Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate
Base: n=6005 (All Respondents)
“Have you checked the Voters’ register to make sure your name is there?” By Total
![Page 8: Referendum Baseline Public Opinion Poll July 2010](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081603/5681492f550346895db66ce1/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
8Referendum Baseline Poll July 2010© Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate
Base: n=6005 (All Respondents)
“Are you planning to go and vote?” By Total
![Page 9: Referendum Baseline Public Opinion Poll July 2010](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081603/5681492f550346895db66ce1/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
9Referendum Baseline Poll July 2010© Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate
Base: n=6005 (All Respondents)
Motivation for voting: By Total
![Page 10: Referendum Baseline Public Opinion Poll July 2010](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081603/5681492f550346895db66ce1/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
10Referendum Baseline Poll July 2010© Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate
Base: ‘YES’ Voters (All Respondents)
Motivation for voting: By ‘Yes’ voters
![Page 11: Referendum Baseline Public Opinion Poll July 2010](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081603/5681492f550346895db66ce1/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
11Referendum Baseline Poll July 2010© Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate
Base: ‘NO’ Voters’(All Respondents)
Motivation for voting: By ‘No’ voters
![Page 12: Referendum Baseline Public Opinion Poll July 2010](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081603/5681492f550346895db66ce1/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
12Referendum Baseline Poll July 2010© Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate
Base: n=6005 (All Respondents)
“How much do you know about the draft constitution?” By Total
![Page 13: Referendum Baseline Public Opinion Poll July 2010](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081603/5681492f550346895db66ce1/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
13Referendum Baseline Poll July 2010© Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate
Base: n=6005 (All Respondents)
“How much do you know about the draft constitution?” By Gender & Setting
![Page 14: Referendum Baseline Public Opinion Poll July 2010](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081603/5681492f550346895db66ce1/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
14Referendum Baseline Poll July 2010© Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate
Base: n=6005 (All Respondents)
“How much do you know about the draft constitution?” By Province
![Page 15: Referendum Baseline Public Opinion Poll July 2010](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081603/5681492f550346895db66ce1/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
15Referendum Baseline Poll July 2010© Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate
Base: n=5979 (Those who know at least something about the constitution)
“From which sources have you learnt something about the proposed constitution?”
![Page 16: Referendum Baseline Public Opinion Poll July 2010](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081603/5681492f550346895db66ce1/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
16Referendum Baseline Poll July 2010© Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate
Base: By those with two or more sources of information.
Usefulness of main sources of information: By much/only some information.
![Page 17: Referendum Baseline Public Opinion Poll July 2010](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081603/5681492f550346895db66ce1/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
17Referendum Baseline Poll July 2010© Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate
“Would you say the information you obtained was balanced to both sides or biased?” (Base: Those who attended a workshop/forum)
![Page 18: Referendum Baseline Public Opinion Poll July 2010](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081603/5681492f550346895db66ce1/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Views on the draft
![Page 19: Referendum Baseline Public Opinion Poll July 2010](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081603/5681492f550346895db66ce1/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
19Referendum Baseline Poll July 2010© Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate
Base: n=6005 (All Respondents)
“When a referendum is held in August this year, will you vote YES to approve or NO to reject the draft constitution?”
![Page 20: Referendum Baseline Public Opinion Poll July 2010](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081603/5681492f550346895db66ce1/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
20Referendum Baseline Poll July 2010© Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate
Base: those who have made up their minds
“When a referendum is held in August this year, will you vote YES to approve or NO to reject the draft constitution?”
![Page 21: Referendum Baseline Public Opinion Poll July 2010](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081603/5681492f550346895db66ce1/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
21Referendum Baseline Poll July 2010© Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate
Base: n=1321 (those will vote NO)
Reasons why you would vote against the proposed constitution
![Page 22: Referendum Baseline Public Opinion Poll July 2010](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081603/5681492f550346895db66ce1/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
22Referendum Baseline Poll July 2010© Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate
“Do you/your family have anxieties about the security of your land if the draft constitution is ratified?” By Total and Province (Base = those who own land)
![Page 23: Referendum Baseline Public Opinion Poll July 2010](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081603/5681492f550346895db66ce1/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
23Referendum Baseline Poll July 2010© Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate
% Indicating will vote ‘yes to approve’
Support for the draft by the level of familiarity
Base: those indicated will vote Yes to approve
![Page 24: Referendum Baseline Public Opinion Poll July 2010](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081603/5681492f550346895db66ce1/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Support for the draft by support for political personalities and political parties
![Page 25: Referendum Baseline Public Opinion Poll July 2010](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081603/5681492f550346895db66ce1/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
25Referendum Baseline Poll July 2010© Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate
Base: n=6005 (All Respondents)
“If Presidential elections were held today, who would you vote for if that person was a presidential candidate?”
![Page 26: Referendum Baseline Public Opinion Poll July 2010](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081603/5681492f550346895db66ce1/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
26Referendum Baseline Poll July 2010© Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate
Base: Supporters of each personality
Support for the draft by political personalities followers.
Supporters of Yes to approve No to reject Undecided
May July May July May July
Raila Odinga 74% 82% 8% 7% 17% 11%
Mwai Kibaki 57% 61% 13% 14% 30% 25%
Martha Karua 53% 54% 17% 21% 31% 25%
Uhuru Kenyatta 50% 59% 25% 20% 25% 20%
Kalonzo Musyoka 44% 49% 26% 29% 31% 21%
William Ruto 10% 12% 68% 73% 22% 14%
![Page 27: Referendum Baseline Public Opinion Poll July 2010](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081603/5681492f550346895db66ce1/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
27Referendum Baseline Poll July 2010© Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate
Base: n=6005 (All Respondents)
“Which political party do you feel closest to?”
![Page 28: Referendum Baseline Public Opinion Poll July 2010](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081603/5681492f550346895db66ce1/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
28Referendum Baseline Poll July 2010© Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate
Base: Supporters of each Party
Support for the draft by political parties followers.
![Page 29: Referendum Baseline Public Opinion Poll July 2010](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081603/5681492f550346895db66ce1/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
29Referendum Baseline Poll July 2010© Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate
Support for the draft by Provinces.
Base: Supporters of each Party
![Page 30: Referendum Baseline Public Opinion Poll July 2010](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081603/5681492f550346895db66ce1/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Religious leaders and the draft
![Page 31: Referendum Baseline Public Opinion Poll July 2010](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081603/5681492f550346895db66ce1/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
31Referendum Baseline Poll July 2010© Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate
Base: n=6005 (All Respondents)
“Should religious leaders take sides, either “YES” or “No” on the constitutional referendum?”
![Page 32: Referendum Baseline Public Opinion Poll July 2010](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081603/5681492f550346895db66ce1/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
32Referendum Baseline Poll July 2010© Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate
Base: n=6005 (All Respondents)
“Have your religious leaders taken sides on the Draft Constitution, whether ‘Yes’ or ‘No’?”
![Page 33: Referendum Baseline Public Opinion Poll July 2010](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081603/5681492f550346895db66ce1/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
33Referendum Baseline Poll July 2010© Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate
Base: n=3434 (Those who know that their religious leaders have taken a position)
“Which side is your LOCAL religious leadership supporting?”
![Page 34: Referendum Baseline Public Opinion Poll July 2010](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081603/5681492f550346895db66ce1/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
34Referendum Baseline Poll July 2010© Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate
Voters’ intentions in relation to their local religious leaders’ position
![Page 35: Referendum Baseline Public Opinion Poll July 2010](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081603/5681492f550346895db66ce1/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
Present Occurrence and Future Concerns of Violence
![Page 36: Referendum Baseline Public Opinion Poll July 2010](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081603/5681492f550346895db66ce1/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
36Referendum Baseline Poll July 2010© Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate
“How likely do you think there will be violence in your locality related to the campaigns for an against the draft constitution?” By Total, Province
Base: n=6005 (All Respondents)
![Page 37: Referendum Baseline Public Opinion Poll July 2010](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081603/5681492f550346895db66ce1/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
Some current affairs issues
![Page 38: Referendum Baseline Public Opinion Poll July 2010](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081603/5681492f550346895db66ce1/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
38Referendum Baseline Poll July 2010© Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate
“Do you support the proposed increase in salaries and benefits for MPs?” By Total
![Page 39: Referendum Baseline Public Opinion Poll July 2010](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081603/5681492f550346895db66ce1/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
39Referendum Baseline Poll July 2010© Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate
“Do you support the price control bill passed by MPs?” By Total
![Page 40: Referendum Baseline Public Opinion Poll July 2010](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081603/5681492f550346895db66ce1/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
Useful Illustrations
![Page 41: Referendum Baseline Public Opinion Poll July 2010](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081603/5681492f550346895db66ce1/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
41Referendum Baseline Poll July 2010© Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate
Geographical distribution of ‘Yes’ and ‘No”
![Page 42: Referendum Baseline Public Opinion Poll July 2010](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081603/5681492f550346895db66ce1/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
42Referendum Baseline Poll July 2010© Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate
Regional profile of ‘Yes’ and ‘No’
Share of the ‘YES’ support by province
Share of the ‘NO’ support by province
![Page 43: Referendum Baseline Public Opinion Poll July 2010](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081603/5681492f550346895db66ce1/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
43Referendum Baseline Poll July 2010© Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate
Assumptions
The results of this opinion poll assume:
1.That there will be equal voter turnout from both the ‘Yes’ and ‘No’ side
2.That there will be no significant change in political alliances before the referendum
3.That once the undecided group finally make up their minds, their support will distribute equally between the ‘NO’ and ‘YES’ side.
4.That the electoral process will be accurately reflect the voting behaviour
![Page 44: Referendum Baseline Public Opinion Poll July 2010](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081603/5681492f550346895db66ce1/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
44Referendum Baseline Poll July 2010© Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate
Some Key observations
• There is notable high level of confidence in this democratic process as demonstrated by the high levels of desire to turnout and vote.
• Further, voters are motivated to turn out and vote by the high desire for better governance and need to excise ones democratic right by way of voting for/against that what they feel best for themselves and the country
• We also report significantly high levels of voters card validation- which is a clear response to messages by the IIEC.
• The diminishing levels of indecisiveness and increase levels of supporters following their respective political leaders position is a clear demonstration of the impact of the ongoing campaigns.
• Further, the ongoing civic education and campaigns have increased levels of familiarity with proposed constitution
• There are notable levels of cohesion and tolerance as demonstrated by the very low levels of tensions or predictions of violence.
• The voters are also fairly tolerant of the religious leaders taking positions which do not necessarily match their own
• finally, the yes side has a clear majority, in fact, based on those who have made up their mind nearly three quarters would vote in favour of the proposed draft.
![Page 45: Referendum Baseline Public Opinion Poll July 2010](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081603/5681492f550346895db66ce1/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
45Referendum Baseline Poll July 2010© Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate
The target population for this survey was all Kenyans who have recently registered with the IIEC as voters. A sample size of 6005
respondents was drawn and distributed across the country based on the voters register by regions as per the IIEC. The sample was
distributed across 71 districts.
The maximum margin of error attributed to sampling and other random effects of this poll’s sample size is +/- 1.6 % margin at 95%
confidence level. A randomized multi-stage stratified design using probability proportional to size (PPS) was used. This ensured that
districts with a higher voter population size had a proportionately higher sample size allocation.
The interviews were done face to face at household level. Household interviews were preferred because they allow for pure random
sampling ensuring full representation of the various demographics and also for quality control. These face-to-face in-home interviews
are also preferred because they allowed for further probing as respondents have more time to respond to questions .
The households were selected using the systematic random sampling procedure. In this case a random starting point was selected
within a cluster of households. From that point the interviewers mainly skipped 4 households until the sample size for that cluster in
the district was achieved. One eligible respondent was then selected from each qualifying household through a household member
randomization technique known as the Kish Grid. This was done to ensure that there was no bias related to household member
selection.
The data collection involved the use of a semi-structured questionnaire having both open and closed ended questions. The poll
questions were structured in a very open manner, with all possible options provided, including no opinion. This ensures that there is
no bias at all with the way the questions are asked. Strict quality control measures for data collection were applied. The fieldwork
Supervisors made a minimum of 15% on-site back checks and accompanied a minimum of 10% of all interviewers’ calls, while the
field managers made 2% back-checks. These back-checks were made within the same day of interviewing
Poll Methodology
![Page 46: Referendum Baseline Public Opinion Poll July 2010](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081603/5681492f550346895db66ce1/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
46Referendum Baseline Poll July 2010© Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate
For further details Please contact:
George Waititu
Tel: + 254 20 4450 196
Mobile: +254 722206980
George.waititu@synovate .com