National Opinion Poll: February 2016 - Millward Brown · A National Public Opinion Poll was...
Transcript of National Opinion Poll: February 2016 - Millward Brown · A National Public Opinion Poll was...
1.
National Opinion Poll: February 2016 - for Publication on 21st February 2016
41113688/Paul Moran
2.
National Opinion Poll
3.
Introduction
A National Public Opinion Poll was conducted on behalf of The Sunday
Independent to be published on Sunday 21st February 2016.
Interviews were conducted face-to-face, in-home, with those aged 18+.
Quota controls were set on gender, age, social class and region to mirror
the 18+ population profile.
Interviewing was conducted at 100 sampling points nationwide.
1,065 Interviews were carried out between 17th – 18th February 2016
Data was weighted to reflect the adult population aged 18+.
The margin of error for this opinion poll is +/- 3.0%.
4.
The survey results presented here are derived from
The Independent Newspaper Group/Millward Brown
Poll. The poll was conducted among a sample of
1,065 adults representative of the approximate 3.43
million adults aged 18 and over - interviewed on a
face-to-face basis in the home at 100 sampling points
throughout the Republic of Ireland. The margin of
error for this opinion poll is +/- 3.0%
Interviewing on the poll was carried out between 17th
and 18th February 2016
The poll was conducted in accordance with the
guidelines set by ESOMAR and AIMRO (European and
Irish Market and Opinion Research governing bodies).
Extracts from the report may be quoted or published
on condition that due acknowledgement is given to
Millward Brown and The Sunday Independent.
© Millward Brown & The Sunday Independent 2016.
Introduction
POLL
5.
Some subtle shifts in opinion, but not a lot has
changed.
This final Sunday Independent/Millward Brown opinion poll before next week’s General Election, was conducted on
Wednesday and Thursday of this week. Therefore it measured the pulse of the nation exactly two weeks into what
has been quite frankly, a rather dull campaign.
Fieldwork commenced shortly after the second televised leaders’ debate on Monday, where all seven leaders had
the opportunity to advance their causes.
On the face of it, not a lot has changed since our last national poll at the beginning of the month. However, scratch
beneath the surface, and there are some subtle shifts in opinion.
Opinions are becoming more focused – just 13pc at this stage claim to be undecided. However, this poll sought only
the views of those both registered to vote, and intending to do so with some degree of certainly (those who will
definitely/probably vote next Friday). Therefore, whilst results with previous tracking polls are not directly
comparable, we can still use them as a relative benchmark.
First off, the overall Party support. Fine Gael remains top of the pecking order, and stands at 27pc. Fianna Fáil
trails by four points at 23pc, and Labour remains firmly in the Doldrums at six percent. Sinn Féin now attracts 19pc
of the vote, with Independents/other parties continuing to excel – they are the second largest grouping at 25pc.
From a statistical point of view, there is no real change of note. So is the electorate becalmed? Not really.
Some in Fine Gael might rue not going to the country in the Autumn. However, by doing so would not have
guaranteed any further success. The issue for Fine Gael is that their campaign has stuttered from the outset. The
widely held view was that this was Fine Gael’s election to lose. The assumed narrative of the campaign was that it
would be a straightforward slugfest on the economy.
6.
Some subtle shifts in opinion, but not a lot has
changed (Cont’d)
However, opposition parties have deftly sidestepped this frontal assault, and turned defence into attack in terms of
focussing on society, and societal needs – the Government Parties’ perceived soft underbelly. The public have
warmed to this message (health {as always} but also homelessness have consistently been to the fore as key issues,
as opposed to the obvious economic message).
There are two reasons why this has been made easier for the opposition – many do not see the benefits of the
recovery as yet, whilst for others, the role that Government claims to have played in it has been exaggerated -
external factors have been more than benign to us of late. It will be interesting to see if the threatened economic
“fear offensive” will gain traction – the impact of that message has been lukewarm so far.
There are indicators in this poll that the public may not find such a single-minded strategy compelling – just one in
three (34pc) agree that a change in Government would put Ireland’s economic stability at risk – and it is only Fine
Gael supporters who have any conviction on this (66pc of them agree, compared to just 39pc of Labour supporters).
Similarly, and reflecting the opposition’s message of fairness in society, 57pc believe a change of Government could
lead to a fairer society.
How the Government parties channel this message will be critical over the next few days.
Labour have always been on the back foot, and on the basis of these results, will have a very long and
uncomfortable day at the count centres next Saturday. From a long way out, there has been a sense that relying on
things to change dramatically during the course of a campaign was optimistic at best. It would seem that the
party’s message is going unheeded.
In addition, Labour have been caught between a rock and a hard place; losing support to the far left, but finding
itself having to align with the centre right (FG) for self-preservation purposes. In essence, the Labour brand has
been hugely diluted.
7.
Some subtle shifts in opinion, but not a lot has
changed (Cont’d)
A particular worry for Labour is that their traditional stronghold of Dublin (often the cockpit of the election), is
faring no better (7pc support). This election may well be a case of damage limitation at best.
It also seems that some senior figures within the Labour Party have gone to ground. Joan Burton seems to be
ploughing a lonely furrow.
Fianna Fáil have been, to a certain extent, the surprise package so far in this campaign. Michéal Martin has
performed competently over the past couple of weeks, as have his senior team. So far at least, they have been
relatively comfortable in counteracting accusations laid against them. This is reflected in the public’s appraisal of
his role as party leader – satisfaction with his performance is at 40pc – far above all others, and significantly ahead
of where he was at the outset of the campaign.
Sinn Féin have slipped off the pace slightly. The party began this campaign brightly (exposing the anomaly of the
Government’s fiscal space). There is a sense however, that Gerry Adams’ grasp of the minutiae of detail is brittle at
best. In addition, there is also a question mark over the party’s ability to get its voters out on the day (its support
being skewed towards cohorts who traditionally tend not to vote – younger and from lower socio–economic
cohorts). If this Achilles’Heel can be rectified, it could be a very good day for Sinn Fein next Saturday. Either way, it
is certain that SF will significantly increase its representation in the 32nd Dáil.
Independents/other parties continue to perform strongly. In particular, there have been notable gains for AAA/PbP
(5pc), and the Social Democrats (4pc). Renua and the Greens register 2pc each. These smaller parties took full
advantage of their participation on the Leaders’ debate on Monday, making points that resonated with the audience.
We need to treat these National figures for smaller parties with caution – for some parties, there may be a desire to
vote for them, but no candidates will be available within that voter’s particular constituency. For others, a
nationwide poll may not reflect fully their strength within specific areas, or constituency strongholds, and thus the
seats they may gain.
8.
Some subtle shifts in opinion, but not a lot has
changed (Cont’d)
Taking a step back, it is clear that with the Government parties at a combined support level of just 33pc, the next
five days will be critical. The political landscape has not been this fractured in generations. Whilst forecasting the
rank order of how parties will perform is relatively straightforward, how this will translate into forming a
Government is anybody’s guess.
9.
The Results
10.
Party Support:
First preference (Incl./Excl. Undecideds)
23
20
17
11
5
4
3
2
1
1
-
13
Party Support incl. don’t knows
%
Fine Gael
Fianna Fáil
Sinn Féin
Independent Candidate
Labour
Anti Austerity Alliance-People
Before Profit
Social Democrats
Renua Ireland
Green Party
The Socialist Party
Other Party
Don’t Know
Party Support Excl. don’t knows
(n=931) %
Base: All Aged 18+ (1,065)
27
23
19
13
6
5
4
2
2
1
-
Fine Gael
Fianna Fáil
Sinn Féin
Independent Candidate
Labour
Anti Austerity Alliance-People
Before Profit
Social Democrats
Green Party
Renua Ireland
The Socialist Party
Other Party
11.
Party Support X Demographics
%
27
23
19
13
6
5
4
2
2
1
Fine Gael
Fianna Fáil
Sinn Féin
Independent Candidate
Labour
Anti Austerity Alliance-
People Before Profit
Social Democrats
Green Party
Renua Ireland
The Socialist Party
Base: All giving a first preference
GENDER AGE
Male
%
Female
%
18-24
%
25-34
%
35-44
%
45-54
%
55-64
%
65+
%
27 26 22 21 28 26 26 33
24 22 21 19 18 22 24 31
17 21 31 30 18 19 13 10
14 11 11 15 13 12 14 12
6 6 2 1 6 8 8 9
5 4 6 4 6 5 5 2
4 4 4 4 5 5 5 1
1 2 1 3 3 2 1 -
2 2 - 1 2 2 3 3
- 1 1 2 * - 1 -
12.
Party Support X Demographics
%
27
23
19
13
6
5
4
2
2
1
Fine Gael
Fianna Fáil
Sinn Féin
Independent Candidate
Labour
Anti Austerity Alliance-
People Before Profit
Social Democrats
Green Party
Renua Ireland
The Socialist Party
Base: All giving a first preference
SOCIAL CLASS REGION
AB
%
C1
%
C2
%
DE
%
F
%
ABC1
%
C2DE
%
DUBLIN
%
REST OF
LEINSTER
%
MUNSTER
%
CONN/
ULSTER
%
38 29 21 18 48 32 19 30 23 21 34
24 21 24 21 36 22 22 15 27 28 22
7 13 25 30 3 11 28 20 23 16 17
11 14 13 13 10 13 13 7 8 20 16
3 7 5 7 - 6 7 7 6 7 3
6 5 4 5 - 5 5 8 4 3 3
5 3 5 4 - 4 4 7 4 3 1
1 3 1 1 - 3 1 3 2 2 -
3 1 2 1 3 2 2 3 1 1 3
1 2 - - - 2 - * 1 * 1
13.
Party Support: First Preference
(Incl./Excl. Undecideds)
20%
23%
13%
22%
5% 17%
Party Support Incl. Don’t knows
Base: All Aged 18+ (1,065)
Party Support Excl. Don’t knows
23%
27%
25%
6% 19%
()=National Results (Jan/Feb 2016) *Includes all other parties
Independents/ Others* (17)
Fianna Fáil (17)
Fine Gael (20)
Labour (4)
Sinn Féin (16)
Don’t know (26)
Fianna Fáil (22)
Fine Gael (27)
Labour (6)
Sinn Féin (21)
Independents/ Others* (23)
14.
Party Support X Demographics
%
Base: All giving a first preference
GENDER AGE
Male
%
Female
%
18-24
%
25-34
%
35-44
%
45-54
%
55-64
%
65+
%
27 26 22 21 28 26 26 33
26 25 23 28 30 25 29 17
24 22 21 19 18 22 24 31
17 21 31 30 18 19 13 10
6 6 2 1 6 8 8 9
*Includes all other parties
27
25
23
19
6
Fine Gael
Independents/Others*
Fianna Fáil
Sinn Féin
Labour
15.
Party Support X Demographics
Base: All giving a first preference
SOCIAL CLASS REGION
AB
%
C1
%
C2
%
DE
%
F
%
ABC1
%
C2DE
%
DUBLIN
%
REST OF
LEINSTER
%
MUNSTER
%
CONN/
ULSTER
%
38 29 21 18 48 32 19 30 23 21 34
28 29 25 24 13 28 24 28 20 29 23
24 21 24 21 36 22 22 15 27 28 22
7 13 25 30 3 11 28 20 23 16 17
3 7 5 7 - 6 7 7 6 7 3
*Includes all other parties
%
27
25
23
19
6
Fine Gael
Independents/Others*
Fianna Fáil
Sinn Féin
Labour
16.
Satisfaction with the Government: Satisfaction is driven by
those who are older or more affluent, farmers and FG
supporters
Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government is running the country?
HIGHER AMONG %
Age 65+ 41
ABs 42
Farming Community 49
Conn/Ulster Residents 39
Supporters of FG 76
Supporters of Labour 44
66%
30%
5%
Don’t know (9%)
Dissatisfied (62%) Satisfied
(29%)
HIGHER AMONG %
Age 25-34 70
DEs 75
Munster Residents 73
Supporters of FF 80
Supporters of SF 93
Supporters of
Independents/Others 81
Three in Ten adults are happy with
the current performance
( )= National Results (Jan/Feb 2016)
Base: All Aged 18+ (1,065)
17. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with Enda Kenny as Taoiseach?
Satisfaction with An Taoiseach Enda Kenny
HIGHER AMONG %
Age 65+ 38
ABs 36
Farming Community 45
Conn/Ulster Residents 42
Supporters of FG 72
Supporters of Labour 41
68%
28%
5% Don’t know (11%)
Dissatisfied (62%)
Satisfied (27%)
HIGHER AMONG %
Age 35-44 72
C2DEs 74
Munster Residents 75
Supporters of FF 82
Supporters of SF 94
Supporters of
Independents/Others 82
( )= National Results (Jan/Feb 2016)
Base: All Aged 18+ (1,065)
18. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Joan Burton is doing her job as leader of Labour?
Satisfaction with Joan Burton
HIGHER AMONG %
Age 65+ 35
Farming Community 37
Conn/Ulster Residents 34
Supporters of FG 54
Supporters of Labour 64
69%
25%
6%
Don’t know (16%)
Dissatisfied (62%)
Satisfied (22%)
HIGHER AMONG %
Age 25-34 75
C2DEs 76
Munster Residents 75
Supporters of FF 79
Supporters of SF 92
Supporters of
Independents/Others 80
( )= National Results (Jan/Feb 2016)
Base: All Aged 18+ (1,065)
19.
47% 40%
12%
Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Michéal Martin is doing his job as leader of Fianna Fáil?
Satisfaction with Michéal Martin
HIGHER AMONG %
Age 55-64 51
Age 65+ 51
ABs 45
Farming Community 49
Supporters of FF 80
Don’t know (25%)
Dissatisfied (48%)
Satisfied (27%)
HIGHER AMONG %
Age 35-44 54
DEs 53
Supporters of FG 51
Supporters of SF 69
Supporters of
Independents/Others 57
( )= National Results (Jan/Feb 2016)
Base: All Aged 18+ (1,065)
20.
60% 28%
12%
Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Gerry Adams is doing his job as leader of Sinn Féin?
Satisfaction with Gerry Adams
Don’t know (18%)
Dissatisfied (55%)
Satisfied (27%)
HIGHER AMONG %
Age 25-34 35
C2DEs 37
Leinster Residents 32
Supporters of SF 83
HIGHER AMONG %
Age 65+ 74
ABs 74
Farming Community 80
Conn/Ulster Residents 66
Supporters of FF 72
Supporters of FG 82
Supporters of Labour 64
Supporters of
Independents/Others 68
( )= National Results (Jan/Feb 2016)
Base: All Aged 18+ (1,065)
21. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Lucinda Creighton is doing her job as leader of Renua
Ireland?
Satisfaction with Lucinda Creighton
37%
30%
33%
HIGHER AMONG %
Males 42
Age 55-64 43
Farming Community 46
Supporters of SF 41
HIGHER AMONG %
Age 65+ 41
ABs 38
Dublin Residents 34
Supporters of FF 34
Supporters of FG 37
Supporters of Labour 37
Supporters of
Independents/Others 34
Don’t know (43%)
Dissatisfied (42%)
Satisfied (16%)
( )= National Results (Jan/Feb 2016)
Base: All Aged 18+ (1,065)
22.
26 53 82 94 82
37 32 79 92 80
51 45 16 69 57
82 64 72 11 68
33 28 39 41 40
Supporters %
Supporters %
Supporters %
Supporters %
Independents/Others*
Supporters %
72 41 14 4 15
54 64 16 4 16
39 40 80 18 30
9 21 17 83 21
37 37 34 17 34
Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with Enda Kenny as Taoiseach?
Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Joan Burton is doing her job as leader of Labour?
Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Michéal Martin is doing his job as leader of Fianna Fáil?
Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Gerry Adams is doing his job as leader of Sinn Féin?
Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Lucinda Creighton is doing her job as leader of Renua Ireland?
Satisfaction with Party Leaders X Party Support
SATISFIED
DISSATISFIED
28%
25%
40%
28%
30%
Enda Kenny (27)
Joan Burton (22)
Michéal Martin (27)
Gerry Adams (27)
Lucinda Creighton (16)
Total
68%
69%
47%
60%
37%
Enda Kenny (62)
Joan Burton (62)
Michéal Martin (48)
Gerry Adams (51)
Lucinda Creighton (42)
Base: All Aged 18+ (1,065)
( )= National Results (Jan/Feb 2016)
*Includes all other parties
23. Q. Which of the following parties or political groupings would you NOT consider voting for in any upcoming election?
Which Parties are most toxic to whom? SF are the least
transfer friendly, with FF being less toxic among the main
parties
WOULD NOT
CONSIDER
35%
35%
27%
50%
15%
25%
21%
21%
10%
Fine Gael (34)
Labour (31)
Fianna Fáil (24)
Sinn Féin (37)
Renua Ireland (12)
AAA-People Before
Profit (16)
Socialist Party (19)
Green Party (19)
Social Democrats (11)
Total
( )= National Results (Jan/Feb 2016)
Base: All Aged 18+ (1,065)
Supporters %
Supporters %
Supporters %
Supporters %
Independents/Others*
Supporters %
- 18 39 75 51
12 - 46 66 42
25 37 - 56 37
78 64 62 - 51
16 30 16 19 12
46 26 28 13 15
30 29 29 11 16
22 16 22 27 22
15 14 15 5 6
*Includes all other parties
24. Q. How certain are you about your decision to vote the way you intend to in the upcoming General Election?
How certain are voters in their convictions? Labour and
Independents are less surefooted in their voting intentions
Absolutely certain
56
26 31 26 37
27
28
57 56 64 38 53
11 14 9 8 16 12
5 3 3 2
8 8
Don’t know * * - - - *
Net Score (Any confident minus Any
doubters)
68
(61)
66
(59)
76
(68)
78
(75)
52
(22)
59
(52)
Pretty certain
Some reservations Not at all certain
Total (931)
%
Fine Gael Supporters
(248) %
Fianna Fáil Supporters
(215) %
Sinn Fein Supporters
(174) %
Labour Supporters
(56) %
Independents/ Others*
Supporters (238)
%
83%
17%
88%
12%
89%
11%
76%
24%
79%
20% -
Base: All giving a first preference (931)
*Includes all other parties
84%
16%
( )= National Results (Jan/Feb 2016)
25.
35%
14%
11%
10%
9%
6%
5%
3%
3%
2%
1%
1%
*
1st Mention %
Health Services/Hospitals (37)
Management of the economy (11)
Crime/Law and Order in General (10)
Unemployment/jobs (13)
The homeless situation/Lack of Local Authority Housing (9)
Water Charges (5)
Mortgage Repayment Rates/House prices/Cost of Rent (7)
Crime/Law and Order relating to Gangland Crime (n/a)
Childcare (3)
Abortion (1)
Issues within my own constituency (1)
Something else (1)
Don't know (2)
Q. What are the most important issues or problems that will influence your decision as to how you will vote in the
next General Election. What other issues are important to you in this election?
Most Important Issue when casting vote (First Mention):
Health by far remains the #1 priority
( )= National Results (Jan/Feb 2016)
Base: All Aged 18+ (1,065)
26. Q. What are the most important issues or problems that will influence your decision as to how you will vote in the
next General Election. What other issues are important to you in this election?
Most Important Issues: All Mentions –
Homelessness, economic issues and crime are also pertinent
Base: All Aged 18+ (1,065)
Health Services/Hospitals
The homeless situation/Lack of Local Authority Housing
Unemployment/jobs
Management of the economy
Crime/Law and Order in General
Water Charges
Mortgage Repayment Rates/House prices/Cost of Rent
Crime/Law and Order relating to Gangland Crime
Childcare
Abortion
Issues within my own constituency
Something Else
Don't know
35%
9%
10%
14%
11%
6%
5%
3%
3%
2%
1%
1
*
23%
14%
14%
12%
9%
9%
7%
4%
3%
1%
1%
2
*
16%
16%
13%
10%
10%
12%
6%
5%
5%
3%
3%
2%
*
1st Mention
2nd
Mention 3rd
Mention Any Mention
%
74
39
37
35
30
27
18
13
11
6
5
5
1
(72)
(40)
(44)
(32)
(31)
(26)
(23)
(n/a)
(11)
(5)
(3)
(4)
(4)
( )= National Results (Jan/Feb 2016)
27.
11% 33%
10%
23%
24%
Preferred options in the event of a deadlocked Dáil – one in
three would like a rerun, but the Grand Coalition gains some
traction
Don’t Know
Some other combination
A new election
A Fine Gael and Fianna
Fáil Coalition
HIGHER AMONG %
Males 28
Age 65+ 38
Farming Community 34
Munster Residents 27
Supporters of FF 38
Supporters of FG 38
HIGHER AMONG %
Age 18-24 43
C2s 40
Dublin Residents 38
Supporters of Labours 46
Supporters of SF 48
Q. In the event of the next Dáil being deadlocked, whereby none of the parties can form a Government
with their preferred options, which of the following would be your preferred choice?
Base: All Aged 18+ (1,065)
A Fine Gael Minority
28. Q. How strongly do you agree or disagree with the following statements…
34%
49%
3% 3%
Any Agree
Any Disagree
It Depends
Don't Know
Base: All Aged 18+ (1,065)
“A change of Government would put Ireland’s economic stability at risk”
“A change of Government would help create a fairer society”
57% 23%
3% 3%
Any Agree
Any Disagree
It Depends
Don't Know
AGREEMENT
HIGHER AMONG %
ABC1s 39
Dublin Residents 38
Conn/Ulster Residents 40
Supporters of FG 66
Supporters of Labour 39
DISAGREEMENT
HIGHER AMONG %
Age 45-54 55
C2DEs 56
Leinster Residents 58
Supporters of FF 63
Supporters of SF 66
Supporters of
Independents/Others 60
AGREEMENT
HIGHER AMONG %
Age 55-64 62
C2DEs 63
Leinster Residents 64
Supporters of FF 70
Supporters of SF 85
Supporters of
Independents/Others 64
DISAGREEMENT
HIGHER AMONG %
Age 65+ 34
ABC1s 29
Conn/Ulster Residents 29
Supporters of FG 50
Supporters of Labour 30
Half believe that economic stability is not at risk by a change
of Government, and a majority feel it could lead to a fairer
society
(33%)
(42%)
(5%) (8%)
(50%) (19%)
(6%)
(8%)
( )= National Results (Jan/Feb 2016)
29.
It is only FG supporters who are likely to follow the
Government message of “Stability vs Chaos”. Labour are
more nuanced
Q. How strongly do you agree or disagree with the following statements…
Total
%
Fine Gael Supporters
(248) %
Fianna Fáil Supporters
(215) %
Sinn Fein Supporters
(174) %
Labour Supporters
(56) %
Independents Others*
Supporters (238)
%
Strongly agree
Somewhat agree
Neither
Somewhat disagree
Strongly disagree
It depends Don’t know
“A change of Government would put Ireland’s economic stability at risk”
Base: All Aged 18+ (1,065)
34%
49%
66%
20%
19%
63%
18%
66%
39%
47%
26%
60%
13
32
5 6 13 10
20
35
15 12
25
16
11
10
11 10
8
10
17
13
21
14
18
20
32
7
42 51
29 39
3 2
2 3 2 1 3 1
5 3 5 4
*Includes all other parties
30.
Sinn Féin and FF supporters are most strident in their view
that a change of Government will lead to a fairer society
Q. How strongly do you agree or disagree with the following statements…
Total
%
Fine Gael Supporters
(248) %
Fianna Fáil Supporters
(215) %
Sinn Fein Supporters
(174) %
Labour Supporters
(56) %
Independents Others*
Supporters (238)
%
Strongly agree
Somewhat agree
Neither
Somewhat disagree
Strongly disagree It depends
Don’t know
“A change of Government would help create a fairer society” Base: All Aged 18+ (1,065)
57%
23%
27%
50%
70%
15%
85%
6%
46%
30%
64%
17%
24
7
35
44
14
24
33
20
36
40
32
41
14
20
9
5
19
15 12
27
8
4
20
9 11
24
7 2
9 7
3 *
2 3 3 3 3 2 4 2 2 1
*Includes all other parties
31.
32%
17%
15%
5%
7%
12%
12%
Trust Most x Party Support
Trust
Most
Fine Gael Supporters
(248) %
Fianna Fáil Supporters
(215) %
Sinn Fein Supporters
(174) %
Labour Supporters
(56) %
Independents Others*
Supporters (238)
%
Fine Gael (24) 90 12 5 26 19
Fianna Fáil (17) 3 66 1 2 10
Sinn Fein (13) * 1 75 2 8
Labour (3) 1 * 1 49 8
Somebody else (7) 1 - 4 4 23
None of them (16) 3 10 8 13 22
Don’t know (19) 1 10 7 6 11
Q. Which one of the following parties do you trust most to manage the public finances over the next 5 years?
Nearly one in three feel that Fine Gael is the party they can
trust most to manage the economy
Base: All Aged 18+ (1,065)
*Includes all other parties
32. Q. Which one of the following parties do you trust least to manage the public finances over the next 5 years?
Sinn Féin is still doubted by many to manage the public
finances
18%
13%
42%
11%
3%
6%
6%
Base: All Aged 18+ (1,065)
Trust Least x Party Support
Trust
Least
Fine Gael Supporters
(248) %
Fianna Fáil Supporters
(215) %
Sinn Fein Supporters
(174) %
Labour Supporters
(56) %
Independents Others*
Supporters (238)
%
Fine Gael (17) * 16 47 11 24
Fianna Fáil (10) 15 2 19 21 16
Sinn Fein (31) 72 52 - 59 39
Labour (11) 4 17 22 2 8
Somebody else (2) 2 3 3 2 2
None of them (8) 1 5 4 2 4
Don’t know (21) 5 5 5 3 6
*Includes all other parties
33.
Most Effective x Party Support
Most
Effective
Fine Gael Supporters
(248) %
Fianna Fáil Supporters
(215) %
Sinn Fein Supporters
(174) %
Labour Supporters
(56) %
Independents Others*
Supporters (238)
%
Fine Gael 56 7 2 18 15
Fianna Fáil 5 57 7 4 14
Sinn Fein 5 7 63 22 20
Labour 2 1 1 26 2
Somebody else 1 1 3 - 13
None of them 10 7 9 14 16
Don’t know 21 20 15 17 20
Q. Which one of the following parties do you think will be MOST effective in tackling Gangland Crime?
Which Party would be considered most effective in tackling
Gangland Crime?
Very little difference between the three main parties
20%
18%
20%
3%
4%
11%
23%
Base: All Aged 18+ (1,065)
*Includes all other parties
34. Q. Which one of the following parties do you think will be LEAST effective in tackling Gangland Crime?
Which Party would be considered least effective in tackling
Gangland Crime?
One in three have doubts about Sinn Féin
17%
6%
34%
13%
4%
17%
10%
Base: All Aged 18+ (1,065)
Least Effective x Party Support
Least
Effective
Fine Gael Supporters
(248) %
Fianna Fáil Supporters
(215) %
Sinn Fein Supporters
(174) %
Labour Supporters
(56) %
Independents Others*
Supporters (238)
%
Fine Gael 2 16 41 19 20
Fianna Fáil 8 - 11 6 5
Sinn Fein 55 43 4 42 35
Labour 8 18 21 2 13
Somebody else 5 3 3 5 3
None of them 15 16 11 9 12
Don’t know 7 4 9 17 13
*Includes all other parties
35.
There is little appetite to abolish the Special Criminal Court
ARE YOU IN FAVOUR OR AGAINST THE ABOLITION OF THE SPECIAL CRIMINAL
COURT?
68% 13%
13%
6%
Don’t Know
It Depends
In favour of the abolition
Against the abolition
HIGHER AMONG %
Age 65+ 76
ABs 78
Farming Community 76
Munster Residents 75
Supporters of FF 76
Supporters of FG 80
Supporters of Labour 74
HIGHER AMONG %
Age 25-34 17
C2DEs 16
Supporters of SF 29
Q. Are you in favour or against the abolition of the Special Criminal Court??
Base: All Aged 18+ (1,065)
36.
Most Credible x Party Support
Most
Credible
Fine Gael Supporters
(248) %
Fianna Fáil Supporters
(215) %
Sinn Fein Supporters
(174) %
Labour Supporters
(56) %
Independents Others*
Supporters (238)
%
Fine Gael 71 4 1 7 12
Fianna Fáil 3 68 4 5 9
Sinn Fein * 2 70 - 6
Labour 3 * 2 46 2
Renua Ireland 1 3 2 2 7
Anti Austerity Alliance-People before Profit
- 1 2 - 15
The Socialist Party - - - - 3
Social Democrats 1 1 2 5 14
Green Party 1 - 2 - 5
Q. From what you have heard so far during the campaign, which of the following political parties have the MOST
credible manifesto?
Fine Gael are perceived to have the most credible
manifesto, but are only marginally ahead of Fianna Fáil
21%
18%
14%
4%
3%
4%
1%
4%
2%
Base: All Aged 18+ (1,065)
*Includes all other parties
37. Q. Finally, from what you have heard so far during the campaign, which of the following political parties have the
LEAST credible manifesto?
Sinn Féin’s manifesto is considered least credible by three in
ten, with some doubts (16pc) over FG’s policies
Base: All Aged 18+ (1,065)
Least Credible x Party Support
Least
Credible
Fine Gael Supporters
(248) %
Fianna Fáil Supporters
(215) %
Sinn Fein Supporters
(174) %
Labour Supporters
(56) %
Independents Others*
Supporters (238)
%
Fine Gael * 18 33 15 22
Fianna Fáil 9 1 20 12 11
Sinn Fein 50 39 1 32 27
Labour 4 12 25 - 12
Renua Ireland 3 2 2 5 2
Anti Austerity Alliance-People before Profit
12 4 5 8 7
The Socialist Party 1 2 1 2 1
Social Democrats 2 * 1 2 *
Green Party 3 4 1 2 1
16%
9%
30%
10%
2%
7%
1%
1%
2%
*Includes all other parties
38. 41113688/Paul Moran
For more information, please contact: Paul Moran
[email protected] 086 341 1970
Millbank House | Arkle Road | Sandyford | Dublin 18 t. +353 (1) 297 4500 | www.millwardbrown.com/ie