Multi-Criteria Assessment of Micro Grid Projects for Rural ... · Multi-Criteria Assessment of...

Multi-Criteria Assessment of Micro Grid Projects for Rural Electrification

Afsal Najeeb and Prof. Anand B. Rao Centre for Technology Alternatives for Rural Areas

Indian Institute of Technology Bombay Presented by: Sneha Swami

1 CTARA, IIT Bombay

Outline

• Significance of the topic

• Objectives

• Methodology Introduction

• Status of renewable energy microgrid projects in India

• Assessment of microgrid projects

Literature Review

• Case studies

• Development of indicator based assessment method

• Application of the framework to compare the case studies

Case Studies & Field Work

• Learnings

• Concluding remarks & Future work

Conclusion and scope of future

work

2 CTARA, IIT Bombay

Rural Electrification In India

• 9 States with 100% coverage of central grid

• >300 Million people without access to power

Rural Electrification

Un - Electrified Households

46% of the Rural households (Census,

2011)

RGGVY Definition of “Electrification” – 10%

of village may have grid connectivity

Villages or hamlets that are not electrified

– 20,000 – 45,000 (CEA, 2015)

Electrified Households

99.8% of villages are electrified (DDUGJY,

2017)

Very low time of availability (As low

as 5 hrs. per day)

Quality of power available 3 CTARA, IIT Bombay

Identify a set of criteria

for evaluation of micro

grid projects and

convert them into

suitable indicators for

collection of data

Literature review, Field visits

Interaction with stakeholders – micro grid project developers to identify what are their perspectives on evaluation of such projects

Interaction with beneficiary communities – In what ways have the introduction of micro grids affected them? What are their present needs, issues

Analyse existing

projects through this

framework

Selection of a few micro grids for study considering availability of required data, access to the site

Collect data for each indicator

Understand the performance of each project with respect to the evaluation criteria

Objectives Methodology

Multi criteria assessment

4 CTARA, IIT Bombay

Microgrids In India

• No regulation public domain data available on

the number and type of systems

• Details of 433 microgrids implemented by

various agencies were collected (Aided by

Prayas Energy Group, Pune)

• Wide variations in capacity provided (Varied

from 400 W per Household to less than 50W)

• No subsidies from GOI after 2014 (Source:

Interaction with project developers)

93%

1%

6%

Microgrid Projects In India - Technology Used

Solar Photovoltaic Biogas Micor Hydro

5 CTARA, IIT Bombay

Microgrids vs. Grid Extension

Both have a niche space of their own 6

Parameter Microgrid Grid

Load / Capacity Limited capacity, may saturate over time

Unlimited (virtually) capacity, although there is often load shedding during times of peak demand

Reliability/ Power Quality Varies, though coupling generation sources and including energy storage device can improve power quality

Low reliability, especially for rural areas that are not considered profitable because of low demand

O&M Varies depending on source Low O&M requirement for consumer, but continues monitoring needed

Price of Electricity for consumers

Typically high, even for low level of services. Around Rs.23 to 33/kWh

Actual cost of production heavily masked by subsidies.

Cost of Electricity for Producers

Around Rs.23 to 33/kWh (varies by the energy source)

Function of distance from the grid, terrain and load profile

CTARA, IIT Bombay

Evaluation of Microgrid Projects – Previous Studies

• Barnes et al. (2003) - toolkit for evaluation of rural electrification projects in the

Indian context (ESMAP)

• Chaurey and Kandpal (2010) - assessment and evaluation of PV based rural

electrification at various locations

• Researchers of Luleå University of Technology have a set of five dimensions for

the evaluation of micro grid projects

• Large number of studies related to identifying the welfare benefits of

electrification programmes

7 CTARA, IIT Bombay

Methodology

• Selection of five rural renewable energy

microgrids

• Field visits, data collection, interaction with

stakeholders

• Detailed analysis of performance of one

system

• Household survey

• Economic Analysis

• Formation of indicators and required data

collection for all systems

8 CTARA, IIT Bombay

Microgrid visits • Interaction with microgrid project development agencies, NGOs who have established microgrid projects

• Case Studies

Location Microgrid Study Status

Manmohadi, Jawhar, Maharashtra

Solar PV Microgrid by Gram Oorja

Interaction with beneficiaries, operators, NGO, survey of households, data collection

Functional

Navpada, Jawhar, Maharashtra

Interaction with beneficiaries, operators, NGO, data collection

Wadpada, Aine, Maharashtra

Amle, Mokhada, Maharashtra Solar PV Microgrid by Arohan

Kokkathode, Pathanamthitta, Kerala Solar PV Microgrid by ANERT

Interaction with beneficiaries, GP members, ANERT officials, data collection

Not - Functional 9 CTARA, IIT Bombay

Case study 1: Manmohadi, Jawhar

10 CTARA, IIT Bombay

Detailed Questionnaire Survey

Questionnaire

• Basic household information

• Details of microgrid service used, sources of lighting or electricity before the microgrid service

• Satisfaction level about the services, tariff

• Involvement in the planning and implementation stages

• Details of appliance use, possible increase in electricity usage

• Suggestions about the system

Sampling Strategy

• Energy consumption of individual households

• Geographic location

• Social and economic background

• 30 out of 63 households were surveyed


Socio-economic Profile: Manmohadi, Jawhar

• People are mostly farmers who also get employed as manual labourers

• One local shop, few people who use the better lighting for income generation

• Agriculture is mostly subsistence with no mechanisation and limited irrigation

• People also engage in collection of non-timber forest products (NTFP)

0

5

10

15

20

<1 1 - 2 2 - 3 3 - 4 4 - 5 5 - 6 >6

Nu

mb

er o

f p

eop

le

Land holding (Acres)

Pattern of Land Holding


Uses of electricity – Significance of demand forecasting

10%

10%

43%

17%

10%

10%

Expected Uses of Electricity before micro-grid

Lighting

Lighting, Fans

Lighting, mobile charging

Lighting, mobile charging,fans

Lighting, mobile charging,fans, other appliances

Lighting, mobile charging,other productive uses

Share of users

7% 0%

33%

10%

37%

13%

Use of appliances after the introduction of microgrid


Patterns in Energy Consumption

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

<3 3-6 6-9 9-12 >12

Nu

mb

er o

f h

ou

seh

old

s

Units consumerd / month (kWh)

Energy consumers classification 2015

June July August September

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

June July August September

No

. of

un

its

(kW

h)

Total Consumption per month 2015

R² = 0.6206

0

5

10

15

20

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Un

its

con

sum

ed (

kWh

/m)

Land holding (acres)

Relation between average consumption (kWh/month) and Land Holding


Tariff Structure

Type I – Two LED lamps, one plug

Rs. 1000

Type II – Two LED lamps, two plug points

Rs. 1500

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

<150 150-300 300-450 >450

Nu

mb

er o

f p

eop

le

Only Fixed Charge (Rs.)

Acceptable cost of connection according to consumers

20%

17% 63%

Preferred frequency of payment of usage tariff

Weekely

Monthly

Seasonally

• Monthly fixed charge – Rs. 50, and 10 per unit

• Theft has been prevented by locking the metres of a group of households

• People are not able to monitor usage and optimise

• Post paid billing 15

One time charge

CTARA, IIT Bombay

Economic Analysis

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

0 25 50 60 70 80 90 95 100

x 1

00

00

0

NPV at various discount rates and present level of utilisation

NPV at 5% per discount rate per annum

NPV at 10% discount rate per annum

NPV at 15% discount rate per annum

Assumptions • Lifetime of panels – 25 years • Lifetime of battery – 5 years • Lifetime of inverters and

charge controllers – 15 years

Cost of the system: 31,00,000 Which includes Cost of panels, Cost of battery, Cost of sunny boy SB 5000, Cost of SMA SI 6.0 H and other costs


Variation of IRR with tariff

• IRR – Measure of economic sustainability

• People demand a reduction of fixed tariff from Rs. 50

• But fixed tariff is required at this level of consumption to maintain viability

• Capacity Utilization Factor improvement will increase IRR

• Encouraging use of productive load

-16.00%

-14.00%

-12.00%

-10.00%

-8.00%

-6.00%

-4.00%

-2.00%

0.00%

2.00%

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

IRR

Percentage of subsidy

Variation of IRR with change in tariff

IRR at present tariff IRR when fixed monthly charge is zero


Analysis of the system using HOMER

• HOMER, the microgrid planning and implementation tool, was used to reverse engineer

the system

• The system on the ground was modelled using HOMER to understand the performance

better

• Limitations

• Lack of reliable data on cost of components, implementation, exact system components in modelling

• Collected revenue addition to economic analysis

• Possible future work – comparison of field measurements and results from HOMER to

understand the accuracy of predictions 18 CTARA, IIT Bombay

HOMER Simulation Results


Case Study 2 – Wadpada Microgrid

• Implemented by Pragati Pratishtan and Gram Oorja

• Geographic conditions limit the possibility of grid extension

• Very Small hamlet of nine households

• Very limited possibility of commercial activity

• IRR = -6%

Parameter Value

Size 1.5 kWp

Number of

households 9

Population 37

Primary occupation

of the people Agriculture

Solar Panels 250 W*6,Anchor

Charge Controller Xantrex WM_60A/24V

Inverter Sukam - 24 V,1.5 kVA

Battery Exide, 24 V 300 Ah 21 CTARA, IIT Bombay

Fig.: Solar panels at Wadpada microgrid

Fig.: Inverter and batteries at Wadpada microgrid

Fig.: Charge controller at Wadpada microgrid


Case Study 3: Navpada Microgrid

Size 6kWp

Number of households 32

Population 182

Primary occupation of the

people Agriculture

Solar Panels 250 W*24,Anchor

Charge Controller SMA- SB 5000

Inverter SMA SI 3.0 M

Battery Exide ,48 V 800 Ah

Situated very close to an electrified village, at about 300 m


Fig.: Agreements with consumers, Pass book of the bank account maintained by the VEC, Receipt given to consumers upon payment of monthly dues

Fig.: Display of the inverter, Navpada microgrid


Case Study 4: ANERT Microgrid, Kokkathode, Pathanamthitta, Kerala

• 4.5 kW, battery based system, Established in 2010

• Power was provided free of cost

• Ownership – Gram Panchayat, but VEC had the power

to take decisions

• Grid reached the village in 2012

• Initial resistance by forest department against setting

up of the plant

• Provides basic lighting facilities for 45 households.


Case Study 5 – Amle Microgrid

Parameter Details

Rating 7kW

Solar panel rating 230W, 4 strings of eight

panels each

Type of panel Multi Crystalline silicon

Maximum voltage 29V

Maximum current 7.95A

Inverter 10 kW/180 V DC/415 V/ 3-

phase output

Battery 180 V/ 200 A-h, (90 X

2V/200Ah batteries)

Number of households

served 65

Monthly tariff Rs. 50/-

• Located in Amle village in Suryamal Gram Panchayat

of Mokhada Taluka

• It was established by Aarohan in cooperation with the

Corporate Social Responsibility initiative of a private

company.

• It was designed to provide power for lighting and

other limited uses for the sixty five households and to

power twenty streetlights.

• A water pump for common use was also powered by

the system

• Does not generate enough money for replacement of

components 26 CTARA, IIT Bombay

Feature Manmohadi Wadpada Navpada ANERT Amle

Capacity kWp 10.5 1.5 6 4.48 7

No. of households

65 9 32 45 65

Distance from the central grid

10 km 8 km 0.3 km 2 km ( now connected)

4.5 km

Services provided Lighting, fans, other loads

Lighting alone Basic lighting, community water pump

Hours of service per day 24

4.5 5

Tariff per month per HH Rs. 50 + Rs. 10 per kWh

No charges Rs. 50

Details of microgrids


Dimensions of Evaluation

4

3

5

Technical Dimension

Understand the technical aspects of the project such as the availability, quality of services, capacity utilisation etc. which determine the sustainability of the plant

Economic dimension Understand if the system is be able to generate enough revenue for maintaining continuity of service, replacements, opportunities created for livelihoods, productive uses

Social dimension

Understand the quality of benefits created, their distribution, direct and indirect impacts on people`s lives

1

2

Environmental dimension

Effect of the project on natural resource use, emissions, generation of waste etc.

Organisational Dimension

Capacity of the organisation and stakeholders to manage the system. 28 CTARA, IIT Bombay

Definition of Individual Indicators Name Name of the indicator Percentage of households connected

Brief Definition Brief definition of the indicator The percentage of households of the study area to which connections

are provided from the micro grid

Unit of measurement Unit of measurement of the indicator Percentage

Relevance to the

study / Purpose of

collection / Possible

analysis that can be

done

Defines the significance of the particular indicator

to the study and the possible analysis that can be

done or useful information that can be derived

from the data collected.

Gives an idea about the coverage of the project in the locality where it

is implemented. High coverage indicate preference of the people to

choose the service due to quality of service or lack of other services.

Low coverage may indicate alternate options available or lack of

infrastructure to serve more people

Method of

measurement

Describes how the indicator is measured Can be derived from the data obtained from the village energy

committee or the project implementing agency

Inputs Required What are the inputs required for the development

of the indicator. This gives an idea about the data

requirements, hence aids in the planning of the

data collection stage.

No. of people who are registered beneficiaries of the project, total

number of people in the area

Limitations Describes the limitations of the indicator Does not give an idea about distribution of beneficiaries within the

village, theft or unauthorised connections


Comparison Between Case Studies • Two Possibilities: Absolute assessment of one microgrid with standard

Relative assessment of microgrid projects

• Scores were allotted to each of the projects on a scale of 5 (Total no. of projects considered for comparison) with 5 representing the best case scenario and 0 representing the lowest

• Perspective: Contribution of the factor / indicator to the long term sustainability of the project


Case Study Manmohadi Wadpada Navapada Kokkathode Amle

Final Technical Indicators Value Score Value Score Value Score Value Score Value Score

Distance from the grid (km) 10 5 300m 1 8 4 3km 3 2 km 2

kW per household 0.161 2.5 0.167 4 0.1875 5 0.1 1 0.161 2.5

31

Assigning score to indicator

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Case Study Manmohadi Wadpada Navapada Kokkathode Amle

Final Technical Indicators Value Weightage Value Weightage Value Weightage Value Weightage Value Weightage

Distance from the grid (km) 10 5 300m 1 8 4 3km 3 2 km 2

kW per household 0.161 2.5 0.167 4 0.1875 5 0.1 1 0.161 2.5

Conformance with national

standards High 3.5 High 3.5 High 3.5 Low 1 High 3.5

Facilities limited to lighting

only No 3.5 No 3.5 No 3.5 Yes 1 No 3.5

Compatibility with future grid

service Yes 3.5 Yes 3.5 Yes 3.5 No 1 Yes 3.5

Capacity utilization (Max.) or

PLF 0.27 3 0.0952 1 0.1873 2 NA 4 0.9 5

Daily availability of services 24 hrs. 4 24 hrs. 4 24 hrs. 4 6 hrs. 1.5 6 hrs. 1.5

Availability of service from 6

pm to 6 am Yes 4 Yes 4 Yes 4 No 1.5 No 1.5

Number of interruptions per

week 0 4 0 4 0 4 5 1 2 2

No. of months of service per

year 12 3 12 3 12 3 12 3 12 3

Availability of skilled

manpower Village 3 Village 3 Village 3 Village 3 Village 3 32 CTARA, IIT Bombay

Results

00.5

11.5

22.5

33.5Manmohadi

Wadpada

NavapadaKokkathode

Amle

Technical Dimension

• Facilities provided by the microgrid and hours of service

are significantly higher for Manmohadi, Wadpada and

Navpada

• Daniel Schnitzer et al., 2014, Barnes et al., 2003 and

Soshinskaya et al. 2014 have also identified this feature.

• The draft report on microgrids submitted to the Ministry

of New and Renewable Energy on microgrid projects

also has suggestions to promote microgrids which

provides higher level of electricity services, not restricted

to lighting systems alone.


2.72.82.9

33.13.23.3Manmohadi

Wadpada

NavapadaKokkathode

Amle

Social Dimension

0

1

2

3

4Manmohadi

Wadpada

NavapadaKokkathode

Amle

Organisational Dimension

• Very complex dimension to quantify and compare, related to many other dimensions

• Importance of community services an important factor as indicated by Daniel Schnitzer et al., 2014, Farzan et al., 2013, SPEED, 2014 and Raman et al. , 2012

• None of the projects provided ICT avenues, poor participation of women

• Effectiveness of VEC operation

• Powers and functioning of VEC are critical

• VEC may have powers, but users maybe unaware and

they fail to exercise it

• Penalties, disconnection from service etc. have to

implemented

• Monitor payment lag 34 CTARA, IIT Bombay

• Replacement costs – Bottleneck for PV

based systems

• Per unit cost of electricity paid by consumer

and the level of services obtained

• Manmohadi is the only system that can

meet the replacement costs, which is the

most common bottleneck in PV Plants

• Amle has high utilisation, poor tariff

structure

0

1

2

3

4Manmohadi

Wadpada

NavapadaKokkathode

Amle

Economic Dimension


Overall Score

• Each dimension has an independent

significance

• Weightages for each dimension may

vary with the context – between a

for profit microgrid, a donor funded

system etc.

• But overall scores reflect the

individual performances

0

1

2

3

4Manmohadi

Wadpada

NavapadaKokkathode

Amle

Overall Score


Discussion on indicators, weightages and ranking method

• Score of each dimension was almost same for most of the case

studies; reduced in the overall score.

• Large differences between the projects ( eg. IRR ) have been reduced

to a smaller difference due to the method of ranking and the

weightages provided.

• Appropriate weights are to be chosen for the individual indicators


Important Learnings

Strategic Planning

• Strategic Planning

• Considers Factors that leads to uncertainty and risk for the developer or poor service delivery for communities. It also involves aspects like choice of technology, system sizing

Operations

• Operations

• Technical, commercial and financial practices that have an impact on the microgrid implementation, acceptance and long term sustainability

Social Context

• Social context

• Learnings about the perspectives of the people towards microgrids


Strategic Planning

• Need Identification

• Organisation

• Choice of Technology

• Demand Projection • Oversizing the system

• Incrementally expanding capacity

• Managing demand

• Contracts and agreements

• Co-ordination with government agencies

Choice of Technology

Resource Availability

Resource Variability

Demand Projection

Economic Sustainability


Operations

• Requirement of cost recovery

• Tariff design

• Frequency of tariff collection

• Demand Side Management

• Maintenance and Safety

Poor maintenance

Unmet demand growth

Poor load management

Loss of reliability due to unscheduled

outages

Cease Functioning

Theft or

under priced tariff

Low cost recovery

Social Context

• Community involvement

• Enabling utility / income generating activities

• Strategies to increase community involvement


Conclusion & Future Work

• Significance of DRE microgrids for electrification of rural areas was studied

• Identification of factors that contribute / determine success or failure of microgrid

projects

• A set of indicators were designed for a better understanding of the long term

sustainability

• The case studies conducted were analysed through this framework of indicators

• Planning and implementation of a solar PV microgrid for a remote tribal hamlet in

Maharashtra – In progress 41 CTARA, IIT Bombay

“Design and implementation of microgrids as if people mattered”

• Conventional approach views electrification as a techno-economic problem

• Evolution of a people-centric approach in the design of projects to address the

issue of rural electricity access in general and planning of RE micro-grids in

particular

• Thinking differently from a design process for rural micro-grids often follows a

“one size fits all” philosophy where communities and beneficiaries everywhere are

considered as homogeneous groups and their priorities are assumed to be the

same 42 CTARA, IIT Bombay

• 15 kW Solar PV microgrid designed with an estimated cost of ₹ 35 lakhs

• Interactions progressing with agencies interested in powering the dreams of Shisavli


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