Muhurat Picks 2014bo.sbicapsec.com/pdflink/imagestorage/Diwali Muhurat...recall in southern market...

Muhurat Picks 2014Company CMP Target Upside (%)

Alembic Pharmaceuticals Ltd. 403 465 15

Can Fin Homes Ltd. 490 571 17

Exide Industries Ltd. 151 175 16

Finolex Industries Ltd. 318 400 26

Hindustan Media Ventures Ltd. 166 192 16

Hindustan Zinc Ltd. 165 188 14

Repro India Ltd. 243 285 17

SBICAP Securities Limited / 2

Executive Summary

Company Reco. Target Targeted CMP ActualPrice Upside(%) gain (%)

Larsen & Toubro Ltd 982 1,100 12 1512 54

Maruti Suzuki India Ltd 1,636 1,800 10 3076 88

Dhanuka Agritech Ltd 140 155 11 473 238

DCB Ltd 51 58 14 86 69

Bharti Airtel Ltd 367 412 12 411 12

Unichem Lab. Ltd 175 211 21 197 13

Tech Mahindra Ltd 1,526 1,850 21 2327 52

Indian equity market was on upward ride to all time high (Sensex = 27354.99 on 12th Sept., 2014) and

indices have given a return of around 23%, since last Diwali. Year to date (YTD) also it has given a

return of around 23%. This spur was mainly attributed to change in government at the centre and

macro economic recovery.

After a marathon run, at last markets have corrected and given an opportunity to investors who have

missed the rally. It has corrected by around 4.5% from peak. Correction was chiefly because of prevailing

global uncertainties.

We expect Indian markets to remain under pressure in the short-term. But the future looks bright as

economy is on the cusp of turn-around, softening of commodity prices, cooling off of inflation and

expectation of earnings catching up valuation. Investors with the horizon of 12 months can utilize this

correction and enter or average at this juncture.

Performance of Muhurat Picks - 2013:


Indians are avid followers of rituals and customs, celebrating various festivals over the year. Among

them the most revered and spiritual occasion is 'Diwali', One of the holy 'saadhe tin muhurat' according

to Hindu religion. Religious Indians are strong believers of 'Shagun' and 'Muhurat', which means an

auspicious occasion. Traditional business communities in India start their new financial year on the

'Muhurat' with 'Laxmi Puja', praying goddess 'Laxmi' and earning her holy blessings for prosperity

and wealth.

'Samvat', a well heard word in financial markets is a short form of Sanskrit word 'Samvatsar' which

means a year. Vikram Samvat is the beginning of Hindu new year celebrated on ‘chaitra shukla

pratipada’. In 2014, Vikram Samvat 2071 began on 31st march 2014 and is known by the name 'Plavang'.

The ruler of this samvat is Lord Indra whereas Moon is both, the king and the minister. According to

astrologers, 'Plavang' will be moderately conducive on economic front for the country.

Stock exchanges in India arrange for a special trading session on the eve of 'Diwali'. Traders welcome

a new year with a traditional ceremony of ‘Laxmi Puja’. Older books of account are closed and new

books are opened with Puja. Customary small trades are placed by traders as 'shagun', a symbolic

start of new session on holy 'Muhurat', believing that the whole session will continue to bring prosperity

and create wealth for them.

With this context we bring you, seven muhurat picks for this muhurat trading session.

"With a hope that you attain success and bliss with every light that is lit during the DIwali."

“Wish You a Very Happy Diwali”

About Muhurat Trading


Key Investment Rationale:Strong focus on chronic therapies is paying well: APL had emergedas an acute player with a tad presence in chronic therapies. After anacquisition of Dabur's non-oncology portfolio in 2007, APL has markedits presence in chronic therapies. Presently, acute portfolio is growingat 7-8%, while chronic portfolio is growing at 20-25%. Increased focuson chronic therapies has led to margin expansion and that wouldlead to an expansion in margins and provided revenue stability.

Focus on high margin products and complex filings: The Company isgradually moving out of CRAMS and low volume business. It is in theprocess of consolidating its product portfolio to focus on high marginproducts. It is increasing its overall R&D expenditure to stress oncomplex filings.

Solely entering into US market: The US business have become growthengine for the Company, currently, it contributes around 20% of theoverall revenues. After lackluster response to Desvenlafaxine(marketed by Ranbaxy in US), Alembic has decided to enter US market,to market its product. This is big step for mid-sized pharma companylike Alembic. By this venture it will be able to capture larger marketshare with more effectiveness.

Outlook and Valuation:We believe pharma companies with higher thrust for chronic therepiesand complex filings will have upper hand. At current price of Rs403 thestock is trading at 29.5x of its TTM consolidated Q2FY15 earning whereason P/BV the same is available at 11x. We have positive views on thestock and hence recommend buying the stock with price target of Rs465.

Alembic Pharmaceuticals Ltd.

Particulars FY11A FY12A FY13A FY14A

Net Sales (Cr) 1,210 1,471 1,529 1,871

EBITDA (Cr) 160 219 252 358

Adj. PAT (Cr) 85 130 165 236

EPS (Rs) 18.0 6.7 8.3 12.0

Book Value (Rs) 49.1 21.0 26.7 35.8

FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT

CHART

CMP (`) 403

Target (`) 465

Upside Potential (%) 15

BSE Code: 533573 I NSE Symbol: APLLTD


OPM (%) 13.2 14.9 16.5 19.1

NPM (%) 7.1 8.8 10.8 12.6

CMP (Rs) 403.0 403.0 403.0 403.0

PE (x) 22.4 60.3 48.3 33.6

P/BV (x) 8.2 19.2 15.1 11.2

D/E (x) 1.1 1.0 0.6 0.3

ROE (%) 25.1 28.2 30.0 42.4

ROCE (%) 38.0 39.1 36.8 40.0

KEY FINANCIAL RATIOS

Technical View:

Alembic Pharmaceuticals Limited is making higher tops and higherbottoms in monthly chart.

The counter is trading around its Upper Bollinger band and the averagesare one above the other

The counter has closed the last month above the high of its previousmonth with increase in volume.


Key Investment Rationale:

Strong presence in southern market: The company has strong brandrecall in southern market especially Karnataka and Tamilnadu. Foursouthern states account for over 70% of loan book. The southernmarket as compared to rest of India has witnessed relatively stabledemand and steady price increase due to IT boom

Impressive loan book growth, set to grow 35-40 % in medium term:The company in last 5 years has registered impressive growth of over25% CAGR in its loan book whereas loan book for the last 7 yearsclocked over 17% CAGR. The disbursement on the other hand grewfaster at 28% CAGR in last 7 years versus sanction growth of 32%CAGR for the same period. The company will add 25-30 branchesevery year and we believe the company to continue its loan bookgrowth between 35-40% in medium term.

Strong asset quality amongst best in the Industry: The company hasstrong asset quality along with 100% provision coverage. The assetquality is amongst best in the housing finance market. 92% of totalloan book accounts for retail individual housing loan of which over90% caters to the people having formal source of income (salariedclass). Interestingly majority of individual loans comprises ofgovernment PSU employees.

Outlook and Valuation:

at current price of Rs490, the stock is trading at 2.1x of its FY14 bookwhereas on earnings, the same is available at 13.3x. We have positiveview on the stock looking at future growth prospects and hencerecommend a Buy on the stock with price target of Rs571 providing anupside potential of 17%.

Can Fin Homes Ltd.

CHART

BSE Code: 511196 I NSE Symbol: CANFINHOME

Technical View:Can Fin Homes Limited is trading above its Upper Bollinger band andthe band is expanding in monthly chart.

The counter has closed its previous month with increase in volume andthe counter is trading at near to its all time high and is expected to furthermove upwards

MACD is above zero line moving upwards and RSI has given positivediversion in monthly chart.

The counter is making higher tops and higher bottoms in monthly chart.


NII (Rs Cr) 68.7 80.8 94.6 133.5

PAT (Rs Cr) 42.0 43.7 54.1 75.7

Loan Book (Rs Cr) 2,205.2 2,672.6 4,012.5 5,874.4

Total Assets (Rs cr) 2,268.7 2,716.2 4,049.0 5,911.7

GNPA (Rs Cr) 23.5 19.0 15.7 12.1

Prov. Coverage (%) 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Cost to Income Ratio (%) 22.3 25.2 32.8 28.5

NIM (%) 3.1 3.3 2.8 2.7

Net Interest Spread (%) 2.2 2.0 1.6 1.7

FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT

CMP (`) 490

Target (`) 571



P/BV (x) 3.2 2.9 2.6 2.1

PE (x) 23.9 23.0 18.5 13.3

P/ABV (x) 3.5 3.1 2.7 2.2

Div Yield (%) 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.3

ROE (%) 14.3 13.3 14.6 17.6

ROA (%) 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.5




Business of brands: Exide Industries Ltd. manufactures a wide rangeof lead and electric storage batteries. These are used for automobiles,railways, aircrafts, power stations, telephone exchanges, and otheruses. The Company sells its products under EXIDE, SF, SONIC andStandard Furukawa Brands. In the international market, the productsare sold under DYNEX, INDEX and SONIC brands. Company has sixfactories located all over India: two in Maharashtra, one in WestBengal, two in Tamil Nadu and one in Haryana. It also has 100% stakein ING Vysya Life Insurance Company Ltd. which is now known asExide Life Insurance Company Ltd.

Strong performance: Company reported flat top line growth in FY14mainly due to sluggish demand in Auto OEM segment. However dueto higher capacity utilization, improvement in auto replacementdemand and better performance in industrial segment (Telecom andInverter/ UPS), company managed to report EBITDA margin of 13.8%(13% in FY13). Exide reported sales growth of 23% YoY in Q2FY15with higher commercial vehicle and replacement market sales in theauto segment and better inverter sales lifted revenue for the quarter.Delayed monsoons and power cuts aided sales of UPS systems too.Management affirms increase of market share in telecom segmentfrom 8% to 20% on the back of new and technically advanced productswith aggressive pricing.

Margin improvement: Indian Lead prices have remained flat YoY andQoQ at Rs 128/kg in Q2FY15. LME lead prices decreased 7% YoY andhovering around ~US$1960/t. With automotive demand picking up,along with stability in lead prices and USDINR exchange rate wouldimprove margins going forward.

Key risks: In recent times, Exide is losing its market share to AmaraRaja in automotive battery segment mainly due to aggressive pricingby the later. Exide has no plans to sell its stake in ING Life Insurance(non-core) business in near term.

Outlook and Valuation:At CMP of Rs.151.6, stock is trading at PE of 22.1 times of its September2014 ttm earnings (Rs16/share adjusted for insurance business). Webelieve 20-22% CAGR growth in earnings for FY15-FY16 period and hencerecommend a Buy on the stock with target price of Rs 175 providing anupside potential of 15.5%.

Exide Industries Ltd.

CHART

BSE Code: 500086 I NSE Symbol: EXIDEIND

Technical View:Exide Industries Limited is making higher peaks, or tops, and highertroughs, or bottoms, creating the uptrend in the Quarterly charts fromJan of 2014

The volumes are increasing with price moving higher showing strengthin the up move and the volumes are decreasing with price moving lowershowing weakness in the down move.

The 50% retracement support at level of 141.20 (from the low priceswing of 99 to the high price swing of 183.40) also coincide with theprevious Quarter low of 141.90 is a strong support on the lower side foruptrend to continue.


Net Sales (Cr) 4,766 5,316 6,366 8,309

EBITDA (Cr) 1,003 744 852 864

Adj. PAT (Cr) 619 446 549 545

EPS (Rs) 7.3 5.3 6.5 6.4

Book Value (Rs) 28.2 31.8 36.4 40.8

FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT

CMP (`) 151

Target (`) 175



OPM (%) 21.0 14.0 13.4 10.4

NPM (%) 13.0 8.4 8.6 6.6

CMP (Rs) 151.6 151.6 151.6 151.6

PE (x) 20.6 28.6 23.2 23.4

P/BV (x) 5.3 4.7 4.1 3.7

D/E (x) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

ROE (%) 31.0 18.6 18.9 16.9

ROCE (%) 42.4 26.1 13.0 8.2




Strong distribution Network: Finolex Industries Limited (FIL) is India'slargest rigid PVC pipes and fittings manufacturer and the secondlargest PVC resin manufacturer. FIL head office is based out of Pune,with manufacturing plants in Pune, Ratnagiri in Maharashtra andVadodara in Gujarat. Finolex pipes and fittings are available in everystate of the country and are sold through a network of dealers, sub-dealers and retailers.

Robust growth: FIL posted strong results in Q1FY15 with Net Salesup 17.6% YoY at and EBITDA up 2.2 times. Management expects toclock volume growth of 15% in FY15 with EBITDA margins of around19-20%. Finance cost went up as company has covered its foreignexchange to hedge against instability in USDINR. But now stabledollar-rupee would help company to reduce its finance cost.

Focusing on North East: Company is trying to explore markets in northeast region including Odisha, Bihar, West Bengal and surroundinglocations. In a first step towards North Eastern markets, companyhas setup a warehouse in Cuttack to facilitate its supply-chain.Company plans to spend overall capital expenditure of Rs20-30 Croresa year.


At CMP of Rs 318.2, stock is trading at PE of 20x of its June 2014 ttmearnings. We expect north-east markets to drive additional growth inearnings and therefore recommend a Buy on stock with target price ofRs 400 providing potential upside of 25.7%.

Finolex Industries Ltd.

CHART

BSE Code: 500940 I NSE Symbol: FINPIPE

Technical View:

Finolex Industries Limited is trading in upwards sloping channel startingfrom the February 2014 with low of 148. The sharp rebound in May20014 and August 2014 provided the two points to confirm the positionof this uptrend channel.

The counter has closed its previous month with increase in volume. Thecounter is trading near to its all time high and is expected to furthermove upwards.


Net Sales (Cr) 1,978 2,100 2,145 2,453

EBITDA (Cr) 220 217 263 327

Adj. PAT (Cr) 76 75 136 170

EPS (Rs) 6.1 6.1 11.0 13.7

Book Value (Rs) 50.0 53.4 58.1 63.6

FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT

CMP (`) 318

Target (`) 400



OPM (%) 11.1 10.3 12.2 13.3

NPM (%) 3.9 3.6 6.3 6.9

CMP (Rs) 318.2 318.2 318.2 318.2

PE (x) 51.8 52.5 29.0 23.2

P/BV (x) 6.4 6.0 5.5 5.0

D/E (x) 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.0

ROE (%) 12.6 9.6 27.0 26.2

ROCE (%) 12.5 9.9 19.2 22.5




Second largest daily in Hindi hinterland: Hindustan media is thesecond largest Hindi daily with readership of over 14 million withpresence in 6 regions (predominately Hindi belt). It is the largest inBihar and Jharkhand with market share of nearly 80% whereasrecently added UP has 30% market share.

Huge growth potential, to enter in newer market: Advertisementrevenue to drive the growth with recovery in economy, as India isstill far behind in terms of spending on ad as % GDP (<1%). Viewershipis also expected to increase (given 62% literacy rate) especially inrural area with viewership of ~22% versus >44% in urban area. thecompany has also planned to enter in other markets.

Margin to grow further given robust operating leverage: The UPoperation is now breakeven and the company is looking to gain fromits operating leverage once it mature. The margin can be furtherexpanded between 200-250 bps in next 2-3 years given currentEBITDA contribution from UP which is mere 8-9% whereas maturemarkets contribute EBITDA margin of above 25%.


At current price of Rs165.9, the stock is trading at 2x of its FY14 bookwhereas on earnings, the same is available at 11.2x. We have positiveview on the stock looking at future growth prospects and hencerecommend a Buy on the stock with price target of Rs192 providing anupside potential of 15.7%.

Hindustan Media Ventures Ltd.

CHART

BSE Code: 533217 I NSE Symbol: HMVL

Technical View:

Hindustan Media Ventures Limited has given breakout from the sidewaysconsolidation sideways channel with high of 153 and low around 104ranging around 49 points on May 2014

Now HMVL is trading in upwards sloping channel starting from theDecember 2013 with low of 104. The sharp rebound in March 20014and April 2014 provided the two points to confirm the position of thisuptrend channel.

On the higher side HMVL is facing resistance at the upward sloping trendline projected around level of 200 that is by joining high of Jan 2014 andJune 2014 which is also coinciding with the consolidation channel rangetarget of 49 points added to level of 153

The counter has given breakout of the consolidation channel withincrease in volumes and when volumes are increasing with price movinghigher, it show strength in the up move.


Net Sales (Cr) 516 597 636 730

EBITDA (Cr) 87 95 113 151

Adj. PAT (Cr) 54 65 85 111

EPS (Rs) 7.8 8.9 11.5 15.2

Book Value (Rs) 51.6 59.1 69.3 83.0

FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT

CMP (`) 166

Target (`) 192



OPM (%) 16.9 16.0 17.7 20.7

NPM (%) 10.4 11.0 13.3 15.2

CMP (Rs) 165.9 165.9 165.9 165.9

PE (x) 21.3 18.6 14.4 11.0

P/BV (x) 3.2 2.8 2.4 2.0

D/E (x) 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0

ROE (%) 23.6 16.1 17.9 19.9

ROCE (%) 26.5 22.0 24.5 28.1



Key Investment Rationale:World's largest integrated producer of Zinc: Hindustan Zinc is one ofthe world's largest integrated producers of zinc and among leadingglobal lead and silver producers. The core business comprises ofmining and smelting of zinc and lead along with captive powergeneration. Company has a metal production capacity of over 1 mtpawith key lead-zinc mines in Rampura Agucha and Sindesar Khurd; andkey modern smelting complexes in Chanderiya and Dariba, all in thestate of Rajasthan in India. It owns 474 MW of coal based thermalcaptive power plants in Rajasthan to support metallurgical operations.In addition, power generation includes 274 MW of wind energy and36MW from waste heat generation.

Strong outlook for Zinc: Zinc prices are hovering around US$ 2220/t(up 20% YoY) and are undergoing a structural uptrend from last 2-3years due to shortage in supplies and rising consumption. Zinc isexpected to remain in deficit for couple of years, primarily on accountof growth in consumption outpacing the rise in production.

Government stake sale: Government currently holds 29.54% inHindZinc and is looking out for stake sale to meet its disinvestmenttarget. Government is reviewing various options including negotiationwith Vedanta in anticipation of higher price as Vedanta already holds64.92% in HindZinc. This would fetch HindZinc, a premium overmarket price whenever the Offer-for-Sale (OFS) is announced.

Production growth: In Q2FY15, EBITDA rose 7% YoY to Rs 2,284 Croresmainly on account of higher volumes. Mined metal production rose30% QoQ to 213kt on account of additional capacities fromSeptember providing ramp-up of output in underground mines. Thiswas in line with company's mine plan at Rampura Agucha of lowermined metal production in H1FY15 as company excavated more wastethan ore. Management expects higher volumes in H2FY15 on theback of exposed ore body effective from September 2014.

Outlook and Valuation:At CMP of Rs 164.7, stock is trading at EV/EBITDA of 6.08 times its Q2FY15ttm earnings. With strong outlook for LME Zinc and Lead prices for coupleof years, improved capacity utilization and attractive valuation werecommend a Buy on stock with target price of Rs 188 thus providingupside potential of 14.8%.

Hindustan Zinc Ltd.

CHART

BSE Code: 500188 I NSE Symbol: HINDZINC

Technical View:Hindustan Zinc Limited has taken retracement support of 50% from theswing low of 121.30 made on early may 2014 and high of 184 made onmid June 2014

The counter has made piercing pattern in the weekly chart

The volume has increased around the support area showing buyingparticipation at lower levels


Net Sales (Cr) 10,039 11,405 12,700 13,636

EBITDA (Cr) 5,587 6,026 6,491 6,900

Adj. PAT (Cr) 4,896 5,061 6,064 6,105

EPS (Rs) 11.6 13.1 16.3 16.3

Book Value (Rs) 53.3 63.6 76.4 88.6

FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT

CMP (`) 165

Target (`) 188



OPM (%) 55.9 53.2 51.2 50.6

NPM (%) 48.8 48.5 54.3 50.6

CMP (Rs) 164.7 164.7 164.7 164.7

PE (x) 14.2 12.6 10.1 10.1

EV/EBITDA (x) 7.7 6.3 4.6 4.2

P/BV (x) 3.1 2.6 2.2 1.9

D/E (x) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

ROE (%) 24.1 22.4 20.5 17.5

ROCE (%) 29.3 28.1 22.9 19.9



Key Investment Rationale:A leading print and fulfillment solution provider: The company is aleading provider of content, print and fulfillment solutions topublishers, corporate, educational trust and government. More than95% of the revenue comes from education sector. The company hasover 150 clients (mostly publishers). In addition to domestic marketpresence, Repro also has presence in 22 countries (mostly African)and looks to increase its export revenue from current 25% to 50% innext few years.

New product Rapples, to help strengthen its presence in educationindustry: The company has recently launched 'Rapples' for schools(K-12) where book contents are converted into digital print with addon features like animation and videos etc. These contents are loadedin Tablets and given to students. There is a huge revenue potential asthere are 3-4 lakh schools (currently 35 schools have tie up) and eachschool has potential to generate Rs30-40 lakh revenue.

Strong balance sheet and healthy return and earning ratios: Thecompany has been able to maintain 15-18% ROE and ROCE in last 10years along with healthy EBITDA margin between 15-18%. Thecompany has generated positive free cash flow in 5 out of last 10years and has good track record of paying dividend between 25-30%.

Outlook and Valuation:At current price of Rs243.2, the stock is trading at 1.3x of its FY14 bookwhereas on earnings, the same is available at 10.8x. we have positiveview on the stock looking at future growth prospects and hencerecommend a Buy on the stock with price target of Rs285 providing anupside potential of 17.2%.

Repro India Ltd.

CHART

BSE Code: 532687 I NSE Symbol: REPRO

Technical View:Repro India Limited is taking 50% retracement support from the swinglow of 181.60 made on early august and 2014 and high of 304.20 madeon mid September.

The counter has made a big white candle in early September showinggood buying sentiment.

The volumes are increasing with price moving higher showing strengthin the up move and the volumes are decreasing with price moving lowershowing weakness in the down move.


Net Sales (Cr) 269 346 381 421

EBITDA (Cr) 39 60 69 74

Adj. PAT (Cr) 22 35 38 27

EPS (Rs) 20.6 30.7 32.0 22.5

Book Value (Rs) 132.0 150.44 171.88 185.19

FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT

CMP (`) 243

Target (`) 285



OPM (%) 14.3 17.4 18.2 17.6

NPM (%) 8.2 10.1 10.0 6.3

CMP (Rs) 243.2 243.2 243.2 243.2

PE (x) 11.8 7.9 7.6 10.8

P/BV (x) 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.3

D/E (x) 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.1

ROE (%) 17.3 21.5 21.0 13.6

ROCE (%) 9.8 12.8 14.5 13.7


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