MRF 1Q FY2013

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Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1

Y/E Sept. (` cr) 1QSY2013 1QSY2012 % chg (yoy) 4QSY2012 % chg (qoq)Net sales 3,026 2,875 5.2 2,994 1.1EBITDA 403 258 56.5 350 15.0

EBITDA margin (%) 13.3 9.0 437bp 11.7 161bp

Reported PAT 180 113 59.6 165 9.4Source: Company, Angel Research

For 1QSY2013, MRF reported a muted 5.2% yoy revenue growth to `3,026cr

(`2,875cr in 1QSY2012) on account of slowdown in auto industry. Declining rubber

prices led to a 437bp yoy expansion of EBITDA margin to 13.3% from 9.0% in the

same quarter last year. Consequently, the net profit for the quarter surged by 59.6%

yoy to `180cr from `113cr in 1QSY2012.

Declining rubber prices to drive bottom-line: Rubber, a major raw material in themanufacture if tyres have been volatile since two years. Rubber prices have

declined to level of `157/kg currently due to declining demand owing to

slowdown in auto industry; increased production during the last three months;

and inventory pileup which resulted from huge imports in times of favorable

international prices. Rubber prices are expected to remain relatively low for the

next one or two quarters owing to bearish global scenario which would

subsequently result in expansion of EBITDA margin and consequently improved

net profit. We expect the EBITDA margin to remain relatively unchanged in

SY2014E due to expected pass on of price correction in the OEM segment.

Outlook and valuation: We expect MRF to post a 7.7% revenue CAGR overSY2012-14 to `13,767cr, while EBITDA margin is expected to expand by 229bp

in SY2013 due to decline in rubber prices. However, we expect margin to remain

stable in SY2014 at 12.8%. Consequently, the net profit is expected to post a

15.2% CAGR over SY2012-14 to `760cr. At the current market price, MRF is

trading at a PE of 6.5x its SY2014E earnings and at a P/BV of 1.1x for SY2014E.

We maintain our Buy rating on the stock with a revised target price of `14,331,based on a target P/E of 8.0x for SY2014E earnings.Key financialsY/E Sept. (` cr) SY2011 SY2012 SY2013E SY2014ENet Sales 9,743 11,870 12,422 13,767% chg 30.7 21.8 4.7 10.8

Adj. Net Profit 343 572 704 760% chg 0.9 67.0 23.0 7.9

EBITDA (%) 8.3 10.6 12.9 12.8

EPS (`) 808 1,350 1,661 1,791P/E (x) 14.3 8.6 7.0 6.5

P/BV (x) 2.1 1.7 1.4 1.1

RoE (%) 17.2 22.2 22.0 19.4

RoIC (%) 18.9 23.3 23.3 21.7

EV/Sales (x) 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5

EV/EBITDA (x) 7.6 4.8 4.0 3.5

Source: Company, Angel Research

BUYCMP `11,565

Target Price `14,331

Investment Period 12 Months

Stock Info

Sector

Net Debt (` cr)

Bloomberg Code

Shareholding Pattern (%)

Promoters 27.2

MF / Banks / Indian Fls 10.5

FII / NRIs / OCBs 30.8

Indian Public / Others 32.1

Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr

Sensex (2.2) 7.0 11.2

MRF 6.1 17.9 83.6

Nifty 5,699

Reuters Code MRF.BO

MRF IN

52 Week High / Low

BSE Sensex 18,878

Tyres

Market Cap (` cr) 4,905

1,146

Beta 0.9

13850/9453

Avg. Daily Volume 2,994

Face Value (Rs) 10

Shareen Batatawala+91- 22- 3935 7800 Ext: 6849

[email protected]

MRFPerformance Highlights

1QSY2013 Result Update | Tyre

March 4, 2013

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MRF| 1QSY2013 Result Update

March 4, 2013 2

Exhibit 1:1QSY2013 performanceY/E Sept. (` cr) 1QSY13 1QSY12 yoy chg (%) 4QSY12 qoq chg (%) SY12 SY11 % chgNet Sales 3,026 2,875 5.2 2,994 1.1 11,870 9,743 21.8Net raw material 2,024 2,110 (4.1) 2,053 (1.4) 8,353 7,107 17.5(% of Sales) 66.9 73.4 68.6 70.4 72.9

Staff Costs 134 118 13.9 133 1.3 514 447 15.0

(% of Sales) 4.4 4.1 4.4 4.3 4.6

Other Expenses 465 390 19.0 458 1.5 1,743 1,385 25.9

(% of Sales) 15.4 13.6 15.3 14.7 14.2

Total Expenditure 2,623 2,618 0.2 2,643 (0.8) 10,609 8,938 18.7EBITDA 403 258 56.5 350 15.0 1,261 805 56.7EBITDA margin (%) 13.3 9.0 437bp 11.7 161bp 10.6 8.3 29bp

Interest 50 32 45 159 93

Depreciation 89 65 87 301 248Other Income 3 4 19 32 25

PBT 267 165 61.9 238 12.2 833 489 70.2(% of Sales) 8.8 5.7 7.9 7.0 5.0

Tax 87 52 66.9 73 18.6 261 274 (4.9)

(% of PBT) 32.5 31.5 30.8 31.3 56.0

Extraordinary income - - - 404.2

Reported PAT 180 113 59.6 165 9.4 572 619 (7.6)PATM 6.0 3.9 5.5 4.8 6.4

Adjusted PAT 180 113 59.6 165 9.4 572 343 67.0Equity capital (cr) 4 4 4 4 4EPS (`) 425 266 59.6 389 9.4 1,350 1,461 (7.6)


Exhibit 2:Actual vs. Angel Estimate (1QSY2013)(` cr) Actual Estimate Variation (%)Total Income 3,026 3,127 (3.2)

EBIDTA 403 319 26.3

EBIDTA margin (%) 13.3 10.2 312bp

Adjusted PAT 180 134 34.4


Revenue subdued, EBITDA margin and PAT surprise positively

For 1QSY2013, MRF reported a marginally lower-than-expected top-line of

`3,026cr on account of slowdown in the auto industry. Decline in rubber prices led

to 437bp yoy expansion in EBITDA margin to 13.3%, above our estimate of

10.2%. This increase was partially offset by higher depreciation and interest cost.

Depreciation for the quarter witnessed a substantial jump yoy to `89cr due to

commencement of a new plant in Tamil Nadu, while interest cost increased to

`50cr on account of rise in loan amount. Consequently, the net profit for the

quarter surged 59.6% yoy to`

180cr as compared to`

113cr in 1QSY2012 and34.4% higher than our estimate of `134cr.

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March 4, 2013 3

Investment rationale

Declining rubber prices to drive short term profits

Rubber prices have been volatile during the last two years. Since rubber constitutesa major proportion to the raw material cost, volatility in its price has impacted the

profitability of tyre companies. Rubber prices have currently declined due to a

number of reasons. Slowdown in production in the automobile segment has been

one of the major reasons for fall in demand of rubber. Moreover, import of

natural rubber through duty free channels accounted for 46% of the total during

Apr- Dec 2012 due of favorable international price. This led to piling up of

inventory at projected levels of 2,90,000 tonnes, thus resulting in a decline in

domestic rubber price.

According to an International Rubber Study Group (IRSG) report, global production

in the April-December 2012 period rose 3.2%, while consumption fell by 1.1%.IRSG estimates 2012 global production and consumption of natural rubber at

11.41 and 10.95 million tonnes, respectively, with a surplus of 4,60,000 tonnes.

While in 2013, production and consumption is expected to be at 11.77 and 11.59

million tonnes, respectively, with a surplus of 1,79,000 tonnes. With onset of dry

season in Thailand (world's biggest rubber producer) in which the rubber supply

reduces by 50% is expected to result in increase in price. However, this rise would

be offset by the Thai Govt.s decision to discontinue its rubber buying scheme; thus

leading to relatively stable international rubber price. In addition, Thailand

decision to join key exporters- Indonesia and Malaysia, to restrict shipments led to

increase in international rubber prices in past three months and consequently

would lower rubber imports. However, considering the overall bearish trend in the

global market, prices are expected to remain relatively low for next one or two

quarters.

Exhibit 3:Rubber price trend

Source: Rubber Board, Angel Research

Tyre companies have taken substantial price hikes during FY2012. The decline in

the price of rubber will further benefit them in the short term. However, in the long

term we expect the EBITDA margin to remain unchanged owing to pass on of price

correction in the OEM segment.

140

150

160170

180

190

200

210

220

Jan-1

2

Fe

b-1

2

Mar-

12

Apr-

12

May-1

2

Jun-1

2

Jul-12

Aug-1

2

Sep-1

2

Oc

t-12

Nov-1

2

Dec-1

2

Jan-1

3

Fe

b-1

3

Mar-

13

(`/kg

)

International Price Domes tic Price

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March 4, 2013 4

Radialization to drive profitability in the long term

Radialization in the commercial tyre segment is 1518%, which is much lower as

compared to 98% in the passenger vehicle tyre segment. Moreover, radial tyres

are priced 20-25% higher than cross-ply tyres. Hence, most tyre companies are

expanding their capacities with radial tyres. Capital expenditure incurred on this

expansion is expected to reduce profitability in the short term since manufacturing

of radial tyres is more capital intensive (3.2x) than cross-ply tyres. The companies

will have to earn a higher EBITDA margin on radial tyres to maintain a similar

return on capital employed (RoCE) as that with cross ply tyres.

Financials

Exhibit 4:Key assumptionsSY2013E SY2014E

Change in tyre realization (%) - 3.0

Change in tyre volume sales (%) 1.0 7.0

Change in rubber price (%) (8.0) 3.0

Source: Angel Research

Exhibit 5:Change in estimatesY/E Sept (` cr) Earlier estimates Revised estimates % chg

SY2013E SY2014E SY2013E SY2014E SY2013E SY2014ENet sales (` cr) 13,030 14,405 12,422 13,767 (4.7) (4.4)OPM (%) 10.3 10.6 12.9 12.8 264bp 222bpEPS (`) 1,418 1,677 1,661 1,791 17.1 6.8

Source: Angel Research

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March 4, 2013 5

Weakness in auto industry to result in subdued revenue growth

MRF is expected to post a 7.7% CAGR in revenue from `11,870cr in SY2012 to

`13,767cr over SY2012-14, owing to current weakness in auto industry, which in

turn will impact the tyre industry. Moreover, with decline in rubber prices, OEM

segment would be required to pass on the price correction which may result in

subdued revenue growth. In the replacement segment, price correction is not

passed unless there is a severe reduction in demand. Since, we do not expect a

15-20% decline in replacement demand, prices of replacement tyres may not

descend, thus giving support to the top- line growth in SY2014E.

Exhibit 6:Subdued revenue growth


EBITDA margin to stabilize at higher level, PAT growth to be

modest

We expect MRFs EBITDA margin to expand by 229bp in SY2013 to 12.9% on the

back of fall in rubber prices which constitute a major chunk of the raw material

cost. However, this may subsequently result in decline in tyre prices, thus leading to

a relatively stable EBITDA margin in SY2014E and consequently a net profit of

15.2% CAGR over SY2012-14 to `760cr in SY2014.

Exhibit 7:EBITDA margins to stabilize at higher levels


Exhibit 8:Net profit on an uptrend


5,6

64

7,4

53

9,7

43

11

,870

12

,422

13

,767

12.3

31.630.7

21.8

4.7

10.8

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

SY2009 SY2010 SY2011 SY2012 SY2013E SY2014E

(%)

(`cr)

Revenue (LHS) Revenue growth (RHS)

682

809

805

1,2

61

1,6

05

1,7

67

12.0

10.9

8.3

10.6

12.912.8

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

SY2009 SY2010 SY2011 SY2012 SY2013E SY2014E

(%)

(`cr)

EBIT DA (LHS ) EBITD A margin (RH S)

249

340

343

572

704

760

4.4 4.6

3.5

4.8

5.7 5.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

SY2009 SY2010 SY2011 SY2012 SY2013E SY2014E

(%)

(`cr)

PAT (LHS) PAT margin (RHS)

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March 4, 2013 6

Outlook and valuation

We have revised our revenue estimates marginally downwards considering a

slowdown in auto industry, while earnings estimates have been revised upward

due to expansion of EBITDA margin backed by falling rubber prices. At the current

levels, the stock is trading at a PE of 6.5x its SY2014E earnings and at a P/BV of

1.1x for SY2014E. We maintain our Buy rating on the stock with a revised targetprice of `14,331, based on a target P/E of 8.0x for SY2014E.Exhibit 9:One-year forward P/E band


Exhibit 10:Relative valuationYear end Sales(` cr) OPM(%) PAT(` cr) EPS(`) ROE(%) P/E(x) P/BV(x) EV/EBITDA(x) EV/Sales(x)

Apollo Tyres FY2014E 14,503 11.8 729 14.5 19.4 5.9 1.0 3.8 0.4

MRF SY2014E 13,767 12.8 760 1,791.4 19.4 6.5 1.1 3.5 0.5

Source: Company

0

3,000

6,000

9,000

12,000

15,000

18,000

21,000

Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13

(`)

Price 2x 5x 8x 11x

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March 4, 2013 7

Risks

Volatile rubber prices: Natural rubber is the major raw material used in themanufacture of tyres. Rubber prices were at a high of `243/kg in April 2011;

however, prices have now fallen to a low of `157/kg (in February 2013).Increased volatility in rubber prices would have a direct impact on the companys

EBITDA margin and consequently its profit.

Exhibit 11:Rubber price trend

Source: Rubber Board

Company Background

MRF manufactures rubber products such as tyres, tubes, flaps, tread rubber and

conveyor belts. The company is present across all categories of tyres, with an

installed capacity of 3.2cr tyres. MRF is a market leader in the tyre industry with an

~27% market share currently. The company is also a leader in the passenger car

tyre segment with a 23.9% market share and holds a third position in the MHCV

segment with a 21.4% market share. MRF also exports tyres to over 65 countries in

America, Europe, Middle East, Japan and the Pacific region.

243

157

150

170

190

210

230

250

Mar-

11

Jun-1

1

Sep-1

1

Dec-1

1

Mar-

12

Jun-1

2

Sep-1

2

Dec-1

2

Mar-

13

(`/kg

)

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March 4, 2013 8

Profit & Loss Statement (Standalone)

Y/E Sept. (` cr) SY2010 SY2011 SY2012 SY2013E SY2014EGross sales 8,080 10,645 13,062 13,696 15,129Less: Excise duty 628 902 1,192 1,274 1,362Net Sales 7,453 9,743 11,870 12,422 13,767

Total operating income 7,453 9,743 11,870 12,422 13,767% chg 31.6 30.7 21.8 4.7 10.8

Net Raw Materials 5,023 7,107 8,353 8,408 9,247

Personnel 371 447 514 547 620

Other 1,249 1,385 1,743 1,863 2,134

Total Expenditure 6,644 8,938 10,609 10,818 12,001

EBITDA 809 805 1,261 1,605 1,767% chg 18.5 (0.5) 56.7 27.3 10.1

(% of Net Sales) 10.9 8.3 10.6 12.9 12.8

Depreciation 261 248 301 388 465

EBIT 548 557 960 1,216 1,301% chg 26.5 1.7 72.3 26.7 7.0

(% of Net Sales) 7.4 5.7 8.1 9.8 9.5

Interest & other charges 63 93 159 206 195

Other Income 42 25 32 25 28

(% of sales) 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2

PBT 527 489 833 1,036 1,134% chg 32.2 (7.1) 70.2 24.3 9.5

Tax 181 274 261 331 374

(% of PBT) 34.3 56.0 31.3 32.0 33.0

PAT (reported) 346 619 572 704 760Minority interest - 1 - - -

Extraordinary (Exp)/Inc. 7 (404) - - -

Tax on extraordinary exp 128ADJ. PAT 340 343 572 704 760

% chg 36.5 0.9 67.0 23.0 7.9

(% of Net Sales) 4.6 3.5 4.8 5.7 5.5

Basic EPS (`) 801 808 1,350 1,661 1,791Fully Diluted EPS ( ) 801 808 1,350 1,661 1,791% chg 36.5 0.9 67.0 23.0 7.9

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March 4, 2013 9

Balance Sheet (Standalone)

Y/E Sept. (` cr) SY2010 SY2011 SY2012 SY2013E SY2014ESOURCES OF FUNDSEquity Share Capital 4 4 4 4 4Preference Capital - - - - -

Reserves& Surplus 1,686 2,294 2,854 3,545 4,292

Equity share warrants

Shareholders Funds 1,691 2,298 2,858 3,549 4,296Minority Interest - - - - -

Total Loans 1,354 1,372 1,631 1,958 1,860

Deferred Tax Liability (15) 142 187 187 187

Other Long Term Liabilities - 776 908 950 1,053

Long Term Provisions - 50 87 91 101

Total Liabilities 3,030 4,637 5,671 6,735 7,497APPLICATION OF FUNDSGross Block 3,368 3,832 5,063 6,581 7,503

Less: Acc. Depreciation 2,039 1,860 2,149 2,537 3,002

Net Block 1,329 1,971 2,914 4,044 4,500Capital Work-in-Progress 498 1,042 415 539 701

Investments 73 73 425 425 425

Long Term Loans and adv. - 146 57 60 66

Other non-current assets - 24 30 32 35

Current Assets 2,095 3,079 3,371 3,247 3,557Cash 45 56 61 81 69

Loans & Advances 127 182 203 213 236

Inventory 1,111 1,526 1,646 1,642 1,825

Debtors 811 1,309 1,454 1,304 1,418

Other current assets - 7 7 8 8

Current liabilities 964 1,699 1,541 1,612 1,788

Net Current Assets 1,131 1,380 1,830 1,636 1,770Mis. Exp. not written off - - - - -

Total Assets 3,030 4,637 5,671 6,735 7,497

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March 4, 2013 10

Cash Flow Statement (Standalone)

Y/E Sept. (` cr) SY2010 SY2011 SY2012 SY2013E SY2014EProfit before tax 527 489 833 1,036 1,134

Depreciation 261 248 301 388 465Change in Working Capital (492) (238) (445) 215 (145)

Other income 42 409 595 (25) (28)

Direct taxes paid (181) (274) (261) (331) (374)

Cash Flow from Operations 157 634 1,023 1,282 1,052(Inc.)/Dec. in Fixed Assets (846) (1,008) (603) (1,643) (1,083)

(Decr)/Incr in Long term provisions 76 (0) (352) - -

(Inc.)/Dec. in Investments - 50 38 4 10

(Incr)/Decr In L.T loans and adv - (170) 82 (4) (10)

Other income 42 25 32 25 28

Others (58) 43 (126) - -

Cash Flow from Investing (786) (1,061) (929) (1,618) (1,056)Issue of Equity - - - - -

Inc./(Dec.) in loans 682 793 392 369 5

Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) (25) (12) (12) (13) (13)

Others (43) (342) (469) - -

Cash Flow from Financing 614 438 (89) 356 (8)Inc./(Dec.) in Cash (15) 11 5 20 (12)

Opening Cash balances 60 45 56 61 81Closing Cash balances 45 56 61 81 69

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March 4, 2013 11

Key RatiosY/E Sept. SY2010 SY2011 SY2012 SY2013E SY2014EValuation Ratio (x)P/E (on FDEPS) 14.4 14.3 8.6 7.0 6.5P/CEPS 8.2 8.3 5.6 4.5 4.0

P/BV 2.9 2.1 1.7 1.4 1.1

Dividend yield (%) 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

EV/Sales 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5

EV/EBITDA 7.6 7.6 4.8 4.0 3.5

EV / Total Assets 2.0 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.8

Per Share Data (`)EPS (Basic) 801.2 808.4 1,349.9 1,661.0 1,791.4

EPS (fully diluted) 801.2 808.4 1,349.9 1,661.0 1,791.4

Cash EPS 1,416.1 1,392.4 2,060.1 2,576.8 2,888.5

DPS 58.3 29.1 25.0 30.0 30.0

Book Value 3,987 5,419 6,740 8,371 10,133

Dupont AnalysisEBIT margin 7.4 5.7 8.1 9.8 9.5

Tax retention ratio 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7

Asset turnover (x) 3.1 2.8 2.5 2.2 2.2

ROIC (Post-tax) 14.8 11.0 13.8 14.5 13.8

Cost of Debt (Post Tax) 4.1 4.7 7.3 7.8 6.9

Leverage (x) 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3

Operating ROE 22.6 14.4 16.5 17.3 16.1

Returns (%)ROCE (Pre-tax) 21.7 14.5 18.6 19.6 18.3

Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) 27.8 18.9 23.3 23.3 21.7

ROE 22.3 17.2 22.2 22.0 19.4

Turnover ratios (x)Asset Turnover 2.4 2.7 2.7 2.1 2.0

Inventory / Sales (days) 43 49 49 48 46

Receivables (days) 34 40 37 38 38

Payables (days) 47 54 54 54 54

WC (ex-cash) (days) 41 45 48 49 43

Solvency ratios (x)Net debt to equity 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3

Net debt to EBITDA 1.5 1.5 0.9 0.9 0.8

Interest Coverage 8.7 6.0 6.0 5.9 6.7

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March 4 2013 12

Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com

DISCLAIMERThis document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investmentdecision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make

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risks of such an investment.

Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make

investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this

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trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's

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Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to thelatest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may haveinvestment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.

Disclosure of Interest Statement MRF

1. Analyst ownership of the stock No

2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No

3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No

4. Broking relationship with company covered No

Ratings (Returns): Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)Reduce (-5% to -15%) Sell (< -15%)

Note: We have not considered any Exposure below `1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors

MRF 1Q FY2013

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