Mozal Finance EXCEL Group 15Dec2013

Exhibit1A

Gencor Group Alusaf Group

Turnover $3,342.3 $657.3 Subsidiary turnover (1,182.1) 0.0 Cost of sales (1,653.8) (551.3)Other operating cost (53.0) 0.0

Operating Income 453.3 106.0

Investment income 217.6 5.8 Net finance cost (26.5) (47.1)Other costs/income 41.9 0.0

Profit before taxation 686.3 64.7

Taxation (121.4) (23.0)Profit after taxation 564.9 41.7

Source: Company Annual ReportsNote: Assumes 3.996 South African Rand equal $1.00 U.S.

Exhibit 1A Gencor and Alusaf Income Statements on June 30, 1996 (US$ millions)

Exhibit1B

Gencor Group Alusaf Group

Capital EmployedShareholders’ interest $2,752.6 $872.9Outside interests 610.3 0.0Long-term loans 679.5 563.7Long-term provisions 293.1 0Deferred taxation 130.5 187.0

Total capital 4,466.0 1,623.6

Employment of CapitalFixed assets 1,820.2 1,455.1Investments 1,834.8 52.6Other non-current assets 300.1 0.0Current assets

Trading stock 433.2 184.1Amounts receivable 578.8 145.1Other 0.0 63.7Cash resources 852.4 0.0

Total current assets 1,864.4 392.9Total assets 5,819.5 1,900.7

Current liabilitiesLoans and payables 1,287.6 262.6Dividends payable 65.9 14.4

Total current liabilities 1,353.5 277.1

Total employment 4,466.0 1,623.6

Source: Company Annual ReportsNote: Assumes 3.996 South African Rand equal $1.00 U.S.

Exhibit 1B Gencor and Alusaf Balance Sheets on June 30, 1996 ($US millions)

Exhibit4

Uses of Cash Sources of Cash

Total direct costs $772 EquityGencor/Alusaf $125

Total indirect costs 226 IDC 125Others 250

Capital costs TotalContingency 75Price escalation 90 Quasi-equity (subordinated debt)

Total 165 IFC 65Other development

Start-up costs financial institutions 85Initial working capital 49 TotalPre-completion interest 153

Total 202 Cash generation 35

Total Uses 1,365 Export creditIDC--arranged 400Coface insured 140

LoansIFC 55Other development

financial institutions 85Total Senior Debt

Total Sources

Source: Company documents

Exhibit 4 Sources and Uses of Cash (US$ millions)

Exhibit4

Sources of Cash

500 37%

150 11

35 2

680 501,365 100

Exhibit6

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Total assets 163 778 1,252 1,328 1,272 1,202 1,132 1,062 991 921 851 750 687 607

Current senior debt 29 57 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 33 53 13Net senior debt 63 366 595 592 522 451 381 311 240 170 100 67 13 0Subordinated debt (quasi-equity) 85 144 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 120 90 60Retained Earnings 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13Share capital 100 327 484 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500

Total capital 163 778 1,252 1,312 1,255 1,184 1,114 1,044 973 903 833 733 669 586

Senior debt/Total capital 39% 47% 50% 49% 47% 44% 40% 36% 32% 27% 20% 14% 10% 2%Current ratio 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.5 4.0 3.2 7.1

5.2 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 4.3 3.0

4.6 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.4 2.2 1.8

Sales 394 429 429 429 429 429 429 429 429 429 429Cash flow (pre interest) 170 189 190 190 186 187 187 171 170 171 170Interest on senior debt 12 52 47 41 35 29 23 17 11 7 4Senior debt principal repayment 29 57 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 33 53

100 312 216 22Dividends and subordinate debt interest 63 51 57 63 66 72 79 68 73 79 106Subordinated debt principal repayment 30 30 30

Exhibit 6 Summary of Financial Projections in Constant 1997 Dollars ($ millions)

DSCR (senior debt)a

DSCR (total debt)a

Equity investmentb

Exhibit6

2011 2012

570 530

0 00 0

30 013 13

500 500543 513

0% 0%12.8 16.1

12.1 NA

3.4 5.2

429 429170 170

1 0

13 0

125 140

30 30

Exhibit6

Equity cash flow= -100 -312 -216 41 51 57 63 66 72 79 68 103 109 136irr= 7%

Source: Company documents, IFC analysis, and casewriter estimates.

aDSCR = debt service coverage ratio = cash flow (principal + interest).bThe equity investment includes both equity and subordinated debt (quasi-equity) investments.

Exhibit6

155 170

Exhibit7

Real NetReal GNP Current Foreign Total Government HumanGDP per CPI National Account Direct External Budget Development

(1987 $) Capita Inflation Exports Balance (as Investment Debt (as % Balance IndexYear ($ mil.) % of GDP)

1980 1,564 NA NA 399 -20.9 0 0.0 -11.4 NA1981 1,746 NA NA 460 -17.8 0 0.0 NA NA1982 1,686 189 NA 400 -20.2 0 0.0 NA NA1983 1,471 160 NA 298 -18.2 0 3.6 NA NA1984 1,215 120 NA 214 -15.9 0 61.6 NA NA1985 1,207 140 47.8 184 -11.7 0 104.4 -18.4 NA1986 1,179 170 12.2 192 -13.6 2 115.0 -24.4 NA1987 1,353 140 175.8 176 -51.2 6 303.4 -22.9 NA1988 1,464 110 55.0 188 -61.1 5 344.8 -27.0 NA1989 1,559 90 42.1 200 -63.8 3 327.4 -24.8 NA1990 1,574 90 49.2 229 -59.9 9 323.3 -29.2 0.2391991 1,651 90 33.3 309 -51.1 23 327.4 -24.9 0.1551992 1,638 80 45.1 304 -59.4 25 413.7 -26.3 0.2461993 1,946 90 42.3 312 -58.5 32 369.4 -22.2 0.2611994 2,033 90 63.1 355 -60.4 35 394.3 -29.7 0.2811995 2,061 80 54.4 407 -46.3 45 395.4 -20.8 0.2811996 2,193 90 44.6 479 -38.9 73 332.1 -17.0 NA6/97

Sources: African Development Indicators (various years), World Bank, World Economic Outlook, International Monetary Fund (various years), Human Development Report, UNDP (various years), Institutional Investor International Edition, and International Country Risk Guide.

development—longevity, knowledge and a decent standard of living.

to 100 (least chance of default).

and economic (50 points). ICRG provides ratings for 140 countries on a monthly basis where higher numbers indicate lower risk.The political risk rating measure a country’s political stability.The financial risk rating measures a country's ability to finance its official, commercial, and trade debt obligations.The economic risk rating measures the country's current economic strengths and weaknesses.

Exhibit 7 Mozambican Macroeconomic Data (1980-1996)

aThe HDI is an index used by the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) to measure the overall achievements in a country in three basic dimensions of human

bThe Institutional Investor rating is based on a survey of 75-100 international bankers who were asked to grade each country on a scale of 1 (very high chance of default)

cThe International Country Risk Guide (ICRG) provides a rating composed of 22 variables in three subcategories or risk: political (100 points), financial (50 points),

Exhibit7

InstitutionalInvestorCountry

RiskPolitical Financial Economic Composite

NA NA NA NA NANA NA NA NA NANA NA NA NA NANA NA NA NA NANA NA NA NA NANA 42.0 23.0 6.0 35.5NA 40.0 22.0 6.0 34.0NA 43.0 25.0 4.5 36.3NA 50.0 26.0 7.0 41.57.6 49.0 26.0 8.0 41.57.3 46.0 26.0 13.5 42.87.0 45.0 26.0 14.5 42.87.0 38.0 24.0 15.5 38.87.5 41.0 24.0 19.5 42.3

11.9 52.0 24.0 17.5 46.812.8 58.0 24.0 13.0 47.514.0 54.0 24.0 19.5 48.8

56.0 24.0 20.0 50.0

African Development Indicators (various years), World Bank, World Economic Outlook, International Monetary Fund (various years), Human Development Report,

ICRG Risk Ratingsc

The HDI is an index used by the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) to measure the overall achievements in a country in three basic dimensions of human

The Institutional Investor rating is based on a survey of 75-100 international bankers who were asked to grade each country on a scale of 1 (very high chance of default)

The International Country Risk Guide (ICRG) provides a rating composed of 22 variables in three subcategories or risk: political (100 points), financial (50 points),

Exhibit7

The composite risk rating equals the sum of the individual ratings divided by two: 0.0-49.5 (very high risk), 80.0 to 100.0 (very low risk)

Exhibit8

1990-96GDP Real

Life United Nations Nominal per GDP TotalPopulation Expectancy HDI (1995) GDP Capita Growth Debt

Country (millions) (Years) Score ($ mil.) (dollars) (percent) (% GDP)

Mozambique 18.0 45 0.281 166 1,715 90 5.5 355

Angola 11.1 46 0.344 156 NA 340 -2.9 37Botswana 1.5 51 0.678 97 NA NA 4.8 15Burundi 6.4 47 0.241 170 899 140 -2.6 103Congo (Zaire) 45.2 53 0.383 143 19,437 NA -7.0 142Gabon 1.1 55 0.568 120 5,704 3,620 2.5 76Kenya 27.4 58 0.463 137 9,272 330 1.9 58Lesotho 2.0 58 0.469 134 NA 670 5.0 70Madagascar 13.7 58 0.348 153 4,156 240 0.3 113Malawi 10.0 43 0.334 161 NA 180 3.0 134Namibia 1.6 56 0.644 107 3,026 2,080 4.3 NARwanda 6.7 41 NA NA 1,330 190 -8.7 77South Africa 37.6 65 0.717 89 126,301 3,140 0.8 NASwaziland 0.9 57 0.597 115 1,069 NA 2.1 22Tanzania 30.5 50 0.358 150 NA 130 3.4 136Uganda 19.8 43 0.340 160 6,005 290 6.9 52Zambia 9.2 44 0.378 146 4,168 430 0.0 120Zimbabwe 11.6 56 0.507 130 7,509 620 1.0 42

Sources: African Development Indicators (various years), World Bank, United Nations, and Institutional Investor International Edition.

from 0 (low) to 1.00 (high); the rank ranges from 1 (high) to 174 (low).

(100 points), financial (50 points), and economic (50 points). ICRG provides ratings for 140 countries on a monthly basis.The political risk rating measure a country’s political stability.The composite risk rating equals the sum of the individual ratings divided by two: 0.0-49.5 (very high risk), 80.0 to 100.0 (very low risk).

1 to 100, with 100 representing the least chance of default.

Exhibit 8 Sub-Saharan African Macroeconomic Data (1996 unless otherwise noted)

Ranka

aThe United Nations Human Development Index (HDI) is a rating of human development across 174 countries. The score ranges

bThe International Country Risk Guide (ICRG) provides a rating composed of 22 variables in three subcategories of risk: political

cThe Institutional Investor rank is out of 135 rated countries (low numbers represent less risky countries).dThe Institutional Investor rating is based on a survey of 75-100 international bankers who were asked to grade each country on a scale of

Exhibit8

Institutional Investor

March March MarchPolitical Composite 1997 1997 1990

Risk Risk

50.0 56.0 116 14.9 7.5

50.0 54.0 123 12.5 12.280.5 72.0 45 49.5 NA

NA NA NA NA NA37.0 36.0 131 8.1 8.367.5 58.0 92 24.1 29.869.0 68.0 81 27.9 29.7

NA NA NA NA NA58.5 60.0 NA NA NA63.0 66.0 101 19.8 15.278.5 80.0 NA NA NA

NA NA NA NA NA75.5 75.0 51 46.0 34.0

NA NA 74 31.8 18.763.0 62.0 105 18.1 10.157.5 52.0 107 17.7 5.461.5 66.0 113 16.1 9.061.0 65.0 71 32.3 27.8

ICRG Ratingsb

Rankc Ratingd Ratingd

Exhibit9A

Year

1980 55 $681 $402 288 n/a n/a1981 56 811 749 314 n/a n/a1982 65 612 1,049 333 n/a n/a1983 58 845 1,267 341 n/a n/a1984 62 696 1,622 349 n/a n/a1985 75 937 1,979 366 n/a n/a1986 85 1,156 2,518 377 18.0% 4.1%1987 92 920 3,260 404 15.8 6.1 1988 95 1,039 3,374 454 11.1 5.0 1989 92 1,292 4,045 468 7.5 3.2 1990 122 1,505 4,752 495 5.2 2.5 1991 152 1,540 5,494 618 5.6 2.3 1992 167 1,773 6,423 703 6.7 3.7 1993 185 2,133 7,132 798 8.3 4.3 1994 231 2,463 7,893 868 7.2 4.0 1995 213 2,877 9,461 939 6.5 3.9 1996 264 3,248 9,844 985 5.6 3.3 1997 276 3,317 10,521 1,046 4.9 2.7

Source: International Finance Corporation, Annual Reports.

Notes: Non-accrual means the loans are not accruing interest in a timely fashion. Principal in arrears means the amount of principal not paid when it was due.

Exhibit 9A Summary of IFC Financial and Operating Statistics

Number of Projects

Approved

Total Approved Financing for Own Account

Total Committed Portfolio for

Own Account

Number of Firms in

Committed Portfolio

Non-Accrual Loans as % of Total

Principal in Arrears as %

of Total

Exhibit9A

$20.70 $90819.5 1,08521.6 1,23323.0 1,31426.3 1,39028.3 1,67325.4 2,23653.8 2,814

100.6 3,427196.5 4,006157.0 5,606165.9 6,648180.2 8,133141.7 8,913258.2 14,723188.0 18,228345.8 22,640431.9 28,975

Net Income (millions)

Total Assets (millions)

Exhibit9B

Investments Held for IFC ($ millions)

Region Loans Total

Latin America and the Caribbean 3278.2 773.2 4051.4Asia 2284.5 606.6 2891.0Europe 1080.3 335.7 1416.0Central Asia, Middle East, and North Africa 1003.2 246.3 1249.5Sub-Saharan Africa 594.4 188.1 782.5Worldwide investments 82.0 87.3 169.3

Total 8322.5 2237.7 10559.7

Source: International Finance Corporation: 1997 Investment Portfolio.

Exhibit 9B IFC Investments by Region as of June 30, 1997 ($ millions)

Equity at Cost

Exhibit9B

Investments Held for IFC ($ millions)

38.427.413.411.8

7.41.6

100

Percent of Total

Exhibit10A&B

Original Commitment

Project Name Country Sector Total IFC

1) Star Petroleum Thailand Oil Refining 94 100.0 350.0 2) Thai Petrochemicals Thailand Chemicals 97 100.0 400.0 3) Ispat Industries India Mining/Extraction 92,95,97 102.8 85.0 4) Aguas Argentinas Argentina Infrastructure 96,96 85.0 307.5 5) Ceval Alimentos Brazil Food/Agribusiness 93,96 90.0 130.0 6) Compañía Teléfonos Venezuela Infrastructure 96 75.0 185.6 7) Sadia Concórdia Brazil Food/Agribusiness 94,95,97 80.0 222.0 8) Hopewell Power Philippines Infrastructure 93 70.0 11.0 9) Mass Transit System Thailand Infrastructure 97 69.7 0.010) Bridas S.A.P.I.C. Argentina Mining/Extraction 93,96 80.0 100.0

Original Commitment

Project Name Country Sector Total IFC

1) Pecten Cameroon Cameroon Mining/Extraction 92,96,97 $74.5 177.9 2) Energy Haute Mer Congo Rep. Mining/Extraction 96 46.8 25.0 4) Mines d’Or Mali Mining/Extraction 95 39.8 25.0 3) Block CI-11 Côte d’Ivoire Mining/Extraction 93,95 38.7 0.0 5) Panafrican Paper Kenya Timber/Paper 70,90,96 69.0 4.0 6) Minière de Syama Mali Mining/Extraction 94 28.1 0.0 7) Mobil/Nigeria Nigeria Mining/Extraction 91 75.0 95.0 8) SA Capital Growth South Africa Financial Services 96 20.0 0.0 9) Tourist Co. Nigeria Hotels/Tourism 94 17.5 0.010) Goldfields Ltd. Ghana Mining/Extraction 90,92,97 27.0 18.5

255 other investments 34 countriesTotal

Exhibit 10A Largest IFC Investments as of June 30, 1997 ($ millions)

Year of Investment

Total in Syndicate

Exhibit 10B Largest IFC Investments in Sub-Saharan Africa as of June 30, 1997 ($ millions)

Year of Investment

Total in Syndicate

Exhibit10A&B

Investments Held for IFC

Loans Total

100.0 0.0 100.0100.0 0.0 100.0

85.5 5.8 91.375.1 7.0 82.168.6 10.0 78.675.0 0.0 75.064.0 10.0 74.060.0 10.0 70.059.8 9.8 69.742.1 25.0 67.1

Investments Held for IFC

Loans Total

49.3 0 49.343.9 2.9 46.835.0 4.8 39.8

0.0 38.7 38.730.0 4.5 34.526.7 1.4 28.122.5 0.0 22.5

0.0 20.0 20.015.0 2.5 17.513.6 3.0 16.6

236.0 77.8 313.8594.4 188.1 782.5

Equity atCost

Equity atCost

Exhibit10A&B

Source: International Finance Corporation: 1997 Investment Portfolio.

Exhibit11

Median Rates of Return (ROR)347 IFC Projects Completed from 1978-1995

Region

Africa 18.0% 9.0% 19.0%Asia 19.0 14.0 20.0

20.5 11.4 24.0Europe 19.4 12.0 19.9

20.0 13.0 20.0

Average 19.0 12.0 20.0

Source: IFC Economics Department, cited in the Annex to Private Sector and Development: Five Case Studies, The World Bank, March 1, 1997.

Notes and definitions:

projections of pre-interest, after-tax cash flows, less project costs.

projections of pre-interest, pre-tax cash flows adjusted for economic distortions and transfer payments, less project costs.

several years after project implementation.

Exhibit 11 IFC Investment Returns (1978-1995)

Financial RORa Economic RORb

Ex Antec Ex Postd Ex Antec

CAMENAe

Latin Americaf

aFinancial rate of return (ROR) is the project’s internal rate of return based on constant price

bEconomic rate of return (ROR) is the project’s internal rate of return based on constant price

cEx ante estimates were made prior to project implementation.dEx post estimates were made during an Investment Assessment Report which is typically done

eCAMENA = Central Asia, Middle East, and North Africa.fIncludes the Caribbean.

Exhibit11

Median Rates of Return (ROR)347 IFC Projects Completed from 1978-1995

10.0%13.0

13.615.0

12.0

12.0

Source: IFC Economics Department, cited in the Annex to Private Sector and Development: Five

projections of pre-interest, pre-tax cash flows adjusted for economic distortions and transfer

Economic RORb

Ex Postd

(ROR) is the project’s internal rate of return based on constant price

(ROR) is the project’s internal rate of return based on constant price

estimates were made during an Investment Assessment Report which is typically done

Mozal Finance EXCEL Group 15Dec2013

Documents

Transcript of Mozal Finance EXCEL Group 15Dec2013