Mobile Update

8/12/2019 Mobile Update

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Copyright 2011, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is prohibited. 7/2011http://www.chetansharma.com 1

WELCOMEWe are thrilled you are here

State of the Global Mobile Industry

Half Yearly Assessment - 2011

Research. Technology. Strategy. Intellectual Property. Thought Leadership Summits.
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Copyright 2011, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited. 7/2011http://www.chetansharma.com 2

Table of Contents

Mobile Trends for 2011

Mobile Subscriber and Revenue Growth

Global MarketsData Growth

DevicesChanging Landscape

Mobile Ecosystem Disruption

Mobile Impacts Everything

Mobile Data Traffic Growth and Solutions

Intellectual Property

2H 2011


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Mobile Trends for 2011

1. Total Global Subscriptions to hit 6 Billion

India and China racing to a billion a piece

2. Total Global Mobile Revenues to hit $1.3 Trillion, almost 2% of Global GDP

Top 10 operators control 43% of the global mobile revenues

3. Total Global Mobile Data Revenues to eclipse $300 Billion

Non-messaging data now owns 53% of the global mobile data revenues

4. Mobile Devices are now exceeding traditional computers in unit sales + revenue

Majority of the device sales in the US are now smartphones. Device Replacement is shrinking

5. Mobile Broadband (4G) is being deployed at a faster rate than previous generations

Over 1 Billion broadband connections by 2011

6. Global Mobile Apps revenue has shifted to off-deck

The decline is directly proportional to the increase in smartphone penetration by region

7. All major markets are consolidating with the top 3 players at 85% of the market

Regulators will have to be more prudent and proactive about managing competitiveness and growth

8. Mobile Data Traffic will be 95% of the global mobile traffic by 2015

Many countries are facing spectrum exhaust in the next 5 years

9. Connected device segment is growing at the fastest pace

Operators will have to quickly adapt their strategies to stay relevant in this segment10. Several multi-billion dollar opportunity segments are emerging

Mobile Advertising, Mobile Commerce, Mobile Wellness, Mobile Games, and Mobile Cloud Computing to name a few

11. Mobile Ecosystem has become very dynamic and unpredictable

Apple, Google, Amazon, and Facebook have become the most important revenue generating mobile platforms

12. There will be more changes in the next 10 years than in the previous 100

The value chains will keep disrupting every 12-24 months by the new players and business models

13. Intellectual Property has become a key component of long-term product strategy

Top 20 control 1/3rdof the overall mobile patent pool


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MOBILE SUBSCRIBER AND REVENUEGROWTH


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The Big Picture

The global mobile industry is the most vibrant and fastest growing industry. We expect the total revenue inthe industry to touch approximately $1.3 Trillion in 2011 with mobile data representing 24% of the mix.

Global Mobile Data revenues are expected to eclipse $300 Billion for the first time in 2011. It is also the

first year in which non-messaging data revenues will make up the majority of the overall global data

revenues at 53%.

We expect the total number of subscriptions to exceed 6 billion by the end of 2011. The first 1 billion took

over 20 years and this last one is going to take only 15 months. The primary growth drivers are India and

China which are cumulatively adding 75M new subs every quarter. Indian and China are also entangled inthe race to the billion. At the end of Q2 2011, China was ahead by 50M but India is adding subscriptions at

faster rate and is likely to eclipse China before Q2 2012. By then, both nations are expected to exceed 1

Billion in total subscriptions making up 31% of the global subscriptions.

In Q1 2011, US became the first major market to exceed the 50% mark in smartphone sales. The global

figure stands at approximately 26%. Some operators expect 90% of their device sales to be smartphones

by the end of the year. In terms of the actual smartphone penetration, we expect the US market to eclipse

the 50% mark in 2012.

China leads in the number of subs but US dominates in both total and data revenue. A number of

emerging nations are now in top 10Brazil, India, Russia, Indonesia, Pakistan, Mexico while once

dominantKorea, UK, Italy, Germany have dropped off or slipped in rankings.

The number of mobile operators with more than $1B in data revenues will increase to 47 in 2011. This

number was only at 13 in 2005.


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Global Mobile Market Snapshot 2011

GlobalSubscriptions

GlobalSmartphone

Users

Global DataUsers

Global SMSUsers

C

hetanSharmaConsulting,

2011

Global Mobile Market Snapshot 2011

Global MobileBroadband

Users

Each dude represents approximately 113 million humans on planet Earth


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Global Mobile Industry Growth



Global Mobile Leaders

Rank By Subs By Total Revenue By Data Revenue

1 China US US

2 India China Japan

3 US Japan China

4 Russia Brazil UK

5 Brazil France Germany

6 Indonesia India France

7 Japan UK Italy

8 Germany Germany Australia

9 Pakistan Italy Brazil

10 Mexico Russia Russia



Global Mobile Leaders

Rank By Sub Penetration By ARPU By Data Usage

1 Portugal Japan Sweden

2 Russia Canada US

3 Finland Switzerland Hong Kong

4 Greece US Finland

5 Italy Norway Denmark

6 Austria Australia Canada

7 Singapore France Australia

8 Sweden Israel New Zealand

9 Denmark Netherlands Austria

10 Germany Singapore Belgium



Biggest Telecom Groups

Rank By Subs By Data Revenue By NM Data Revenue

1 China Mobile Verizon Wireless AT&T Mobility

2 Vodafone NTT DoCoMo NTT DoCoMo

3 Telefonica AT&T Mobility Verizon Wireless

4 America Movil China Mobile China Mobile

5 Bharti Airtel Vodafone Vodafone

6 Telenor KDDI KDDI

7 China Unicom T-Mobile T-Mobile

8 T-Mobile Telefonica Telefonica

9 TeliaSonera Sprint Nextel Sprint Nextel

10 Reliance Softbank Softbank



Global Mobile Industry continues to

grow at a healthy pace



Mobile is approx 2% of Global GDP



Operators around the world are

benefiting from mobile data



Top 10 global mobile data operators

US, Japan Dominate


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GLOBAL MARKETS: DATA GROWTH



US, Japan lead in revenues;

China, India in subscriptions

Japan continues to be the leader in mobile data with NTT DoCoMo,KDDI, and Softbank Japan ahead of the pack in terms of mobile datarevenue and data as a % of total ARPU.

Next, Australia and the US have made good inroads in the last twoyears. In fact, if we look at the overall data revenue, US is much

further ahead than any nation due to the size of the market. While India has the highest subscriber growth rate in the world

right now, the revenue generating opportunity remain down rightanemic compared to other major markets with average droppingdown to $3.50 in overall ARPU. Even with significant subscriberbase, there is going to be a general lack of opportunity in the

market for the next couple of years relative to other markets.



Japanese operators ahead of the mobile

data pack



All major markets experiencing data

growthJapan, Australia, US leading



Race to the BillionChina vs. India


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DEVICES: CHANGING LANDSCAPE



DevicesApple, Android Dominate

Apple has had the tablet space to itself. Thus far the response from the competitors has been tepid esp.

on the pricing dimension. Apple has had such a mastery over the supply-chain and months ahead of thecompetition that by the time they figure out details, Apple already locks up the pricing advantage for the

cycle. OEMs try to catch-up on the features but cant do on the margins. OEMs can grow the pie by

bringing products at a better price points that helps attract different demographics to the mix. Microsoft

can make good inroads into the space with its Win8 tablet release in 2012 but it will be again in a catch-

up mode as the iOS ecosystem will be even more robust by then. The cheaper Android tablets will do well

in the market. As expected, tablets will pretty much eliminate the need for netbooks and are starting to

eat into the desktop/laptop revenue.

Nokia and RIM are under severe market scrutiny as investors and developers leave in droves. Lack of

product planning and execution has left their market share in disarray. Nokias valuation has been cut into

half while the newcomer HTC edged past the industry giant in a remarkable story of the year. Nokias

release of N9 shows the engineering and creative design depth but a lot is riding on the first generation

of Nokia Windows Phones. While the market hasnt shown much appetite for Windows phone thus far, a

good family of devices might be able to slow the loss trajectory and position the combined team for the

up-for-grabs 3rdspot in the ecosystem. HPs acquisition of Palm is finally bringing some new products to

the market but the lack of an effective ecosystem means lack of traction in 2011. Given that thecomputing is shifting to mobile devices, we can expect some of the weaker desktop/laptop players will

exit the industry.

Tablets are primarily being used in the WiFi mode because the primary use case is indoors and WiFi gives

a better (and cheaper) user experience. Once operators start to roll out user-friendly family data plans

across multiple devices, we can expect the cellular activation go higher but will still be dominated by WiFi

overall.



Apple dominates the profits, Android

the volume, Nokia falters


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Mobile Devices are dominating the

Computing Ecosystem


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US leading in smartphone sales


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Connected devices explosion

Source: Mobile Cloud Computing.

http://chetansharma.com/mobilecloudcomputing.htm
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Tablets are primarily WiFi

consumption devices right now


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Competing with iPad


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Changing Ecosystem Dynamics

It is very clear that the ecosystem dynamics can change very quickly,one just cant take the competitive and friendly forces for granted. Inthe past, the silos and segments were clearly defined with littleoverlap. However, over the course of last couple of years, players havebeen migrating and surfing in segments across the board - from Appleto Visa, from P&G to AT&T, from Facebook to Time Warner, fromGoogle to Best Buy, every company wants to capture the mindshareand piece of the consumers pocketbook.

The fine line between partners and competitors can get obliterated ina quarter. Apple is competing with Cisco, Comcast is going after AT&Ts

business, Visa and Verizon want to be the payment channel of choice,Amazon is gunning for Microsofts enterprise business, so on and soforth. One product launch, one acquisition, can change the game in aninstant. And this is only the beginning.


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Competitive Dynamics

The Rule of Three is evident in all major markets. While the percentage market share might vary, on an

average, the top 3 control 93% of the market in an given nation. It doesnt matter if the market is definedby controlled regulation like in China, Korea, and Japan or if it is open market driven in markets such as

the US, UK, and India. Eventually, only top 3 operators control the majority of the market. There are niches

that others occupy but they are largely irrelevant to the overall structure and functioning of the mobile

market.

Markets such as US and India experienced similar competitive environment in their hyper-growth phase.

For the US, this phase was in the nineties-mid-2000s while India has been experiencing the similar

environment in the last 3-4 years. In both cases, at the start there are 5-6 players with no more than 25%

market share but higher than 10% of the mix but gradually the market forces enable consolidation. Over a

period of 18 years, US is settling into a top 3 operator market. Indias brutal price wars are going to

trigger the consolidation in the next 12-24 months and will eventually settle into a structure similar to

other markets.

The competitive equilibrium point in the mobile industry seems to when the market shares of the top 3

are 46%:29%:18% respectively with the remaining 7% being allocated to the niche operators. To achieve

some semblance of equilibrium in the market the top operator shouldnt have more than 50% of the

market share and the number three player shouldnt have less than 20%. This helps create enough balancein the market to derive maximum value for the consumer.

Mobile operators will face some hard choices in developing and protecting the role they want to play in a

given region and the ecosystem at-large. The strategy they choose will have a direct impact on the

expected EBITDA margins, investment required over the long-haul, how investors view them, and on the

competitive landscape of the country. Given, the fast pace of globalization, new rules and trends might

emerge over the course of this decade that further define communicationsand computingas we know

it.


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Competitive Landscape in Major Markets

Source: Competition and Evolution of Mobile Markets.

http://chetansharma.com/mobilecompetition.htm
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Global Mobile Competitive Index




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Eventually all markets consolidate to top 3




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Mobile Apps and Services

Mobile is fundamentally reshaping how we as consumersspend from housing and healthcare to entertainment andtravel, from food and drinks to communication andtransportation. Mobile not only influences purchasebehavior but also post purchase opinions. When theshare button is literally a second away, consumers arewillingly sharing more information than ever before.Mobile is thus helping close the nirvana gap for brandsand advertisers who seek to connect advertising to actual

transactions. The long-term battle is however for owningthe context of the users. Having the best knowledgeabout the user to help drive the transaction is the simplythe most valuable currency of commerce.


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Mobile impacts all purchase funnels

C t t th t l bl


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Contextthe most valuable currency

in mobile

Knowledge(about User)

Transactions(from User)

Demographics/ExplicitProfile

Interests/Implicit Profile

Sensor data

User Intent

Location

Presence

Physiologicalparameters

Calendar

Address Book

Social Community

Intellectual Community

M2M

Preferences

Devices in the vicinity

3rdParty Sources

Browsing, Watching,Previewing, Flipping

Purchasing, Payments

Communications

Search (Local, Online,Media)

User Experience

Gifting

Advertising

Pricing

Security/Authorization

DRIVES

Trusted Concierge

Trusted Advisor

Big Opportunities in becoming the trusted

Concierge/Advisor to the individual user

S t h bli Offd k t
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Smartphones are enabling Offdeck to

dominate app revenue


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MOBILE DATA TRAFFIC GROWTH


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Mobile Data Traffic Growth

In most western markets, data traffic is

doubling YOY

Sweden, US, Hong Kong, Japan, and Denmark

make the top 5 in terms of MB consumed per

capita

A Multi-pronged approach is needed to have a

sustainable strategy long term

Only a holistic strategy to deal with data


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Only a holistic strategy to deal with data

tsunami can help the operators long-term

As a result of the data tsunami, there are two types of opportunities that are being

created, one that take advantage of the data being generated in a way that enhances

the user experience and provides value and the other in technologies that help manage

the traffic data that will continue to grow exponentially.

To be able to stay ahead of the demand, significant planning needs to go in to deal with

the bits and bytes that are already exploding. New technical and business solutions will

be needed to manage the growth and profit from the services. Relying on only onesolution wont be an effective strategy to manage rising data demand.A holistic

approach to managing data traffic is neededand our analysis shows that the cost

structure can be reduced by more than half if a suite of solutions are deployed vs. a

single dimensional approach and thus bringing the hockey stick curves of data cost

more in line with the revenues and thus preserving the margins.

The decision making process within the operator organizations will need to bestreamlined as well. Operators should also consider creating a senior post which

focuses on both the cost side and the solution side so they can devise and institute a

sustainable long-term policy and keep the margins healthy.

Mobile data traffic growing faster


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Mobile data traffic growing faster

than online traffic, doubling Y/Y

Source: Managing Growth and Profits in the Yottabyte Era 2ndEdition

http://chetansharma.com/yottabyteera2.htm

Margin preservation key to all
http://www.chetansharma.com/http://chetansharma.com/yottabyteera2.htmhttp://chetansharma.com/yottabyteera2.htmhttp://www.chetansharma.com/


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Margin preservation key to all

operator strategies

Managing data margins will be top


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Managing data margins will be top

priority for all operators

20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Japan

Sweden

New Zealand

Philippines

Hong Kong

Australia

Germany

Switzerland

Netherlands

DenmarkPortugal

Finland

Italy

Spain

UK

Singapore

Korea

France

Russia

Canada

USIndonesia

Brazil

ArgentinaIndia

China

Mexico Malaysia

South Africa

Data as % of Overall Network

Traffic

Dataas%o

fSe

rvices

Revenues

Reve

nue-Tr

affic

Equilibriu

m

ChetanSh

armaConsulting,2011



Management of Data Requires
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Management of Data Requires

Multiple Strategies

2G

4G

3G

Core Network

Radio Access Network Core Network

Mobile Backhaul

Fiber

Microwave

Copper

Light

Networks

GGSNRNC SGSN

Offloading Traffic

WiFi/FemtoCell

Offloading Traffic

Inter

netServices

Compression/Optimization of Data Traffic

Policy Management

Compression/Optimization

Optimization


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INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY WILL REMAINKEY TO LONG-TERM PRODUCT AND

COMPETITIVE STRATEGY SUCCESS


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IP is critical to long-term product strategy

The IP tussles are playing out as expected

Players with strong IP portfolios will be able to command betternegotiating positions, new revenue streams, competitive positioning

over the long-term

On average mobile companies file patents 1.7 times more in the US vs.

Europe Mobile Patent Leaders in US: IBM, Microsoft, Samsung

Mobile Patent Leaders in Europe: Alcatel-Lucent, Nokia, Samsung

Mobile Patent Leaders in Infrastructure: Samsung, Alcatel-Lucent,

Ericsson

Mobile Patent Leaders in Device/Software: Nokia, IBM, Microsoft

Mobile Patent Leaders in Service Providers: AT&T, NTT DoCoMo, Sprint

Top 20 control 1/3rdof the total mobile communications patent pool

Patent Power Rankings Mobile Communications


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Patent Power RankingsMobile Communications

Related Issued Patents 1993-2011

Rank US Europe US+Europe

1 IBM Alcatel-Lucent Samsung

2 Microsoft Nokia Nokia

3 Samsung Samsung Alcatel-Lucent

4 Nokia Sony IBM

5 Motorola Ericsson Ericsson

6 Ericsson RIM Microsoft

7 Intel Siemens Sony

8 Sony NTT DoCoMo Motorola

9 Alcatel-Lucent Fujitsu Qualcomm

10 AT&T Qualcomm Siemens

Based on an estimation of Mobile Communications Related Patents that have been granted by

The USPTO and the EPO. This assessment doesnt take a look at the quality or the value of the patents

Patent Power Rankings Mobile Communications


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Patent Power RankingsMobile Communications

Related Issued Patents 1993-2011

Rank OEM/Software Infrastructure Service Provider

1 Nokia Samsung AT&T

2 IBM Alcatel-Lucent NTT DoCoMo

3 Microsoft Ericsson Sprint

4 Sony Qualcomm Orange

5 Motorola Siemens Deutsche Telekom

6 Intel NEC Verizon

7 RIM LG British Telecom

8 HP Fujitsu Swisscom

9 Oracle Cisco Telecom Italia

10 SAP Broadcom SK Telecom

Based on an estimation of Mobile Communications Related Patents that have been granted by

The USPTO and the EPO. This assessment doesnt take a look at the quality or the value of the patents

Integration of IP with product strategy is


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Integration of IP with product strategy is

essential for competitiveness in mobile

Market

RequirementsProduct

Requirements

Design and

Development

IP competitive andrisk assessment

IP Protection Process

Public Disclosure

IP Management

Ideation

IP Analysis

IP driven Product Development Cycle

R&D, Other

Sources

Licensing

C

hetanSharm

aConsulting,

2011

NUMERIC

ANALYSIS

SUBJECTIVE

ANALYSIS

PATENT

PROGRAM

ANALYSIS

f() Patent Portfolio Quotient(PPQ)

Source: What is your Patent Portfolio Quotient?

http://chetansharma.com/patentportfolioquotient.htm

Improve your PPQ bytight integration with product

strategy
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WHAT TO EXPECT IN 2H 2011


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What to expect in 2H 2011

More Tiering, faster pace of change of plans. More options, family data plans

Cost reduction is as important as revenue generation. More players will align their value-chains and cost

structures

Radios will start connecting the digital world with the physical world with significant disruption opportunity

Mobile Payment Networks will remain intact for the near future as the ecosystem largely focuses on building

value on top of the existing exchange platforms

The intersection of Social, Location, Identity, and Gaming is creating new opportunities

With connectivity becoming pervasive, mobile will fundamentally start to alter the legacy infrastructure

retail, health, education, energy, computing, travel, entertainment

Significant tablet adoption in the enterprise directly impacting the traditional computer manufacturers

Both HTML5 and Apps will continue to grow, the relevancy to any given application will depend on the reach

and economics requirements

Mobile data growth will double again in 2011. Significant opportunities in managed and understanding of

mobile data growth

Regulators will need to evolve to keep up with the trend to keep their nation globally competitive IP will continue to surface as a key product strategy tool for players in the ecosystem

Significant progress in emerging areas like mHealth, mPayments will come from the developed world while

the western countries get mired in regulatory and legacy mess


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MOBILE FUTURE FORWARDMOBILE THOUGHT-LEADERSHIP SUMMIT


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Connected Universe. Unlimited Opportunities.

http://www.mobilefutureforward.com
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Exceptional Speakers. Actionable Insights.

Glenn Lurie, President, AT&T Mobility

Gibu Thomas, SVP - Online/Mobile, Walmart

Charlie Herrin, SVP - Products and Technology,Comcast

Jeremiah Zinn, EVP, MTV

Sanjiv Ahuja, CEO, LightSquared

Steve Mollenkopf, EVP and Group President,

Qualcomm

Danny Bowman, President - Connected Devices, Sprint

Nextel David Messenger, EVP, Head - Online/Mobile,

American Express

Prof. Cliff Nass, Human Computer Interaction,

Stanford University

Jason MacKenzie, President, HTC-Americas

Erik Moreno, SVP, Fox

Hank Skorny, Chief Strategy Officer, Real Networks Jerry Batt, CIO, PulteGroup

Jay Emmet, GM, OpenMarket

Janet Schijns, VP, Verizon Wireless

Mikael Back, VPProducts, Ericsson

Ken Denman, CEO, Openwave

Kris Rinne, SVP - Networks, AT&T Mobility

Mike Mulica, President, Synchronoss Technologies

Paul Palmieri, CEO, Millennial Media

Rob Glaser, Partner, Accel

Stephen Bye, CTO, Sprint

Suja Chandrasekaran, CIO, Timberland

Will Hsu, Chief Product Officer, AT&T Interactive

Ken Wirth, President, Alcatel Lucent Wireless

Abhi Ingle, VPAdvanced Mobility, AT&T Wireless

Amit Gupta, SVP and CTO, INQMobile

Carlos Domingo, CEO, Telefonica I&D

Matt Oomen, President, Reliance Communications

Braxton Woodham, Head of Engineering, AVOS

John SanGiovanni, Cofounder, Zumobi

Bob Gessel, VP/Head -Tech/Network Strategy, Ericsson Subba Rao, former CEO, Tata DoCoMo

Dale Nitschke, former President, Target

Mark Rolston, Chief Creative Officer, Frog Design

. and many more

f


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Discussions to inform your strategy

Is 4G a Game Changer?

Innovation at the Edges

Mobile Payments and Commerce

Disruption is in the air

Mobile Data Services from the Prism of the CIOs

Solving the 50 year Spectrum Crunch

Managing the Network Growth

Opportunities in the Emerging Markets

The Universe of Connected Devices

Analytics - How to Collect, Manage, and Use Data?

Multi-modal Interactions - How Consumers Adapt?

At the Intersection of Social, Mobile, Commerce, Content

Battle for the Homeplaying in the n-screen world

What do Developers Want?

A Smarter Planet - The Role of Mobile in Enhancing Lifestyles and in Making Everyday Decisions Drivers for New Sources of Revenue

Role of Regulations - Spectrum, Privacy, Net-Neutrality

Mobile Cloud Computing

Monetizing the network

From 3 Screens to Multi-screens

Mobile Universe in 2020

l k f d h i f


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We look forward to hearing from you

Chetan Sharma

[email protected]

TW: @chetansharma

http://www.chetansharma.com

Mobile Future Forward

[email protected]

TW: @mfutureforward

http://www.mobilefutureforward.com

Research. Technology. Strategy. Intellectual Property. Thought Leadership Summits.
mailto:[email protected]://www.chetansharma.com/mailto:[email protected]://www.mobilefutureforward.com/http://www.mobilefutureforward.com/mailto:[email protected]://www.chetansharma.com/mailto:[email protected]

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