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WELCOMEWe are thrilled you are here
State of the Global Mobile Industry
Half Yearly Assessment - 2011
Research. Technology. Strategy. Intellectual Property. Thought Leadership Summits.
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Table of Contents
Mobile Trends for 2011
Mobile Subscriber and Revenue Growth
Global MarketsData Growth
DevicesChanging Landscape
Mobile Ecosystem Disruption
Mobile Impacts Everything
Mobile Data Traffic Growth and Solutions
Intellectual Property
2H 2011
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Mobile Trends for 2011
1. Total Global Subscriptions to hit 6 Billion
India and China racing to a billion a piece
2. Total Global Mobile Revenues to hit $1.3 Trillion, almost 2% of Global GDP
Top 10 operators control 43% of the global mobile revenues
3. Total Global Mobile Data Revenues to eclipse $300 Billion
Non-messaging data now owns 53% of the global mobile data revenues
4. Mobile Devices are now exceeding traditional computers in unit sales + revenue
Majority of the device sales in the US are now smartphones. Device Replacement is shrinking
5. Mobile Broadband (4G) is being deployed at a faster rate than previous generations
Over 1 Billion broadband connections by 2011
6. Global Mobile Apps revenue has shifted to off-deck
The decline is directly proportional to the increase in smartphone penetration by region
7. All major markets are consolidating with the top 3 players at 85% of the market
Regulators will have to be more prudent and proactive about managing competitiveness and growth
8. Mobile Data Traffic will be 95% of the global mobile traffic by 2015
Many countries are facing spectrum exhaust in the next 5 years
9. Connected device segment is growing at the fastest pace
Operators will have to quickly adapt their strategies to stay relevant in this segment10. Several multi-billion dollar opportunity segments are emerging
Mobile Advertising, Mobile Commerce, Mobile Wellness, Mobile Games, and Mobile Cloud Computing to name a few
11. Mobile Ecosystem has become very dynamic and unpredictable
Apple, Google, Amazon, and Facebook have become the most important revenue generating mobile platforms
12. There will be more changes in the next 10 years than in the previous 100
The value chains will keep disrupting every 12-24 months by the new players and business models
13. Intellectual Property has become a key component of long-term product strategy
Top 20 control 1/3rdof the overall mobile patent pool
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MOBILE SUBSCRIBER AND REVENUEGROWTH
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The Big Picture
The global mobile industry is the most vibrant and fastest growing industry. We expect the total revenue inthe industry to touch approximately $1.3 Trillion in 2011 with mobile data representing 24% of the mix.
Global Mobile Data revenues are expected to eclipse $300 Billion for the first time in 2011. It is also the
first year in which non-messaging data revenues will make up the majority of the overall global data
revenues at 53%.
We expect the total number of subscriptions to exceed 6 billion by the end of 2011. The first 1 billion took
over 20 years and this last one is going to take only 15 months. The primary growth drivers are India and
China which are cumulatively adding 75M new subs every quarter. Indian and China are also entangled inthe race to the billion. At the end of Q2 2011, China was ahead by 50M but India is adding subscriptions at
faster rate and is likely to eclipse China before Q2 2012. By then, both nations are expected to exceed 1
Billion in total subscriptions making up 31% of the global subscriptions.
In Q1 2011, US became the first major market to exceed the 50% mark in smartphone sales. The global
figure stands at approximately 26%. Some operators expect 90% of their device sales to be smartphones
by the end of the year. In terms of the actual smartphone penetration, we expect the US market to eclipse
the 50% mark in 2012.
China leads in the number of subs but US dominates in both total and data revenue. A number of
emerging nations are now in top 10Brazil, India, Russia, Indonesia, Pakistan, Mexico while once
dominantKorea, UK, Italy, Germany have dropped off or slipped in rankings.
The number of mobile operators with more than $1B in data revenues will increase to 47 in 2011. This
number was only at 13 in 2005.
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Global Mobile Market Snapshot 2011
GlobalSubscriptions
GlobalSmartphone
Users
Global DataUsers
Global SMSUsers
C
hetanSharmaConsulting,
2011
Global Mobile Market Snapshot 2011
Global MobileBroadband
Users
Each dude represents approximately 113 million humans on planet Earth
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Global Mobile Industry Growth
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Global Mobile Leaders
Rank By Subs By Total Revenue By Data Revenue
1 China US US
2 India China Japan
3 US Japan China
4 Russia Brazil UK
5 Brazil France Germany
6 Indonesia India France
7 Japan UK Italy
8 Germany Germany Australia
9 Pakistan Italy Brazil
10 Mexico Russia Russia
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Global Mobile Leaders
Rank By Sub Penetration By ARPU By Data Usage
1 Portugal Japan Sweden
2 Russia Canada US
3 Finland Switzerland Hong Kong
4 Greece US Finland
5 Italy Norway Denmark
6 Austria Australia Canada
7 Singapore France Australia
8 Sweden Israel New Zealand
9 Denmark Netherlands Austria
10 Germany Singapore Belgium
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Biggest Telecom Groups
Rank By Subs By Data Revenue By NM Data Revenue
1 China Mobile Verizon Wireless AT&T Mobility
2 Vodafone NTT DoCoMo NTT DoCoMo
3 Telefonica AT&T Mobility Verizon Wireless
4 America Movil China Mobile China Mobile
5 Bharti Airtel Vodafone Vodafone
6 Telenor KDDI KDDI
7 China Unicom T-Mobile T-Mobile
8 T-Mobile Telefonica Telefonica
9 TeliaSonera Sprint Nextel Sprint Nextel
10 Reliance Softbank Softbank
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Global Mobile Industry continues to
grow at a healthy pace
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Mobile is approx 2% of Global GDP
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Operators around the world are
benefiting from mobile data
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Top 10 global mobile data operators
US, Japan Dominate
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GLOBAL MARKETS: DATA GROWTH
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US, Japan lead in revenues;
China, India in subscriptions
Japan continues to be the leader in mobile data with NTT DoCoMo,KDDI, and Softbank Japan ahead of the pack in terms of mobile datarevenue and data as a % of total ARPU.
Next, Australia and the US have made good inroads in the last twoyears. In fact, if we look at the overall data revenue, US is much
further ahead than any nation due to the size of the market. While India has the highest subscriber growth rate in the world
right now, the revenue generating opportunity remain down rightanemic compared to other major markets with average droppingdown to $3.50 in overall ARPU. Even with significant subscriberbase, there is going to be a general lack of opportunity in the
market for the next couple of years relative to other markets.
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Japanese operators ahead of the mobile
data pack
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All major markets experiencing data
growthJapan, Australia, US leading
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Race to the BillionChina vs. India
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DEVICES: CHANGING LANDSCAPE
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DevicesApple, Android Dominate
Apple has had the tablet space to itself. Thus far the response from the competitors has been tepid esp.
on the pricing dimension. Apple has had such a mastery over the supply-chain and months ahead of thecompetition that by the time they figure out details, Apple already locks up the pricing advantage for the
cycle. OEMs try to catch-up on the features but cant do on the margins. OEMs can grow the pie by
bringing products at a better price points that helps attract different demographics to the mix. Microsoft
can make good inroads into the space with its Win8 tablet release in 2012 but it will be again in a catch-
up mode as the iOS ecosystem will be even more robust by then. The cheaper Android tablets will do well
in the market. As expected, tablets will pretty much eliminate the need for netbooks and are starting to
eat into the desktop/laptop revenue.
Nokia and RIM are under severe market scrutiny as investors and developers leave in droves. Lack of
product planning and execution has left their market share in disarray. Nokias valuation has been cut into
half while the newcomer HTC edged past the industry giant in a remarkable story of the year. Nokias
release of N9 shows the engineering and creative design depth but a lot is riding on the first generation
of Nokia Windows Phones. While the market hasnt shown much appetite for Windows phone thus far, a
good family of devices might be able to slow the loss trajectory and position the combined team for the
up-for-grabs 3rdspot in the ecosystem. HPs acquisition of Palm is finally bringing some new products to
the market but the lack of an effective ecosystem means lack of traction in 2011. Given that thecomputing is shifting to mobile devices, we can expect some of the weaker desktop/laptop players will
exit the industry.
Tablets are primarily being used in the WiFi mode because the primary use case is indoors and WiFi gives
a better (and cheaper) user experience. Once operators start to roll out user-friendly family data plans
across multiple devices, we can expect the cellular activation go higher but will still be dominated by WiFi
overall.
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Apple dominates the profits, Android
the volume, Nokia falters
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Mobile Devices are dominating the
Computing Ecosystem
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US leading in smartphone sales
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Connected devices explosion
Source: Mobile Cloud Computing.
http://chetansharma.com/mobilecloudcomputing.htm
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Tablets are primarily WiFi
consumption devices right now
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Competing with iPad
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Changing Ecosystem Dynamics
It is very clear that the ecosystem dynamics can change very quickly,one just cant take the competitive and friendly forces for granted. Inthe past, the silos and segments were clearly defined with littleoverlap. However, over the course of last couple of years, players havebeen migrating and surfing in segments across the board - from Appleto Visa, from P&G to AT&T, from Facebook to Time Warner, fromGoogle to Best Buy, every company wants to capture the mindshareand piece of the consumers pocketbook.
The fine line between partners and competitors can get obliterated ina quarter. Apple is competing with Cisco, Comcast is going after AT&Ts
business, Visa and Verizon want to be the payment channel of choice,Amazon is gunning for Microsofts enterprise business, so on and soforth. One product launch, one acquisition, can change the game in aninstant. And this is only the beginning.
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Competitive Dynamics
The Rule of Three is evident in all major markets. While the percentage market share might vary, on an
average, the top 3 control 93% of the market in an given nation. It doesnt matter if the market is definedby controlled regulation like in China, Korea, and Japan or if it is open market driven in markets such as
the US, UK, and India. Eventually, only top 3 operators control the majority of the market. There are niches
that others occupy but they are largely irrelevant to the overall structure and functioning of the mobile
market.
Markets such as US and India experienced similar competitive environment in their hyper-growth phase.
For the US, this phase was in the nineties-mid-2000s while India has been experiencing the similar
environment in the last 3-4 years. In both cases, at the start there are 5-6 players with no more than 25%
market share but higher than 10% of the mix but gradually the market forces enable consolidation. Over a
period of 18 years, US is settling into a top 3 operator market. Indias brutal price wars are going to
trigger the consolidation in the next 12-24 months and will eventually settle into a structure similar to
other markets.
The competitive equilibrium point in the mobile industry seems to when the market shares of the top 3
are 46%:29%:18% respectively with the remaining 7% being allocated to the niche operators. To achieve
some semblance of equilibrium in the market the top operator shouldnt have more than 50% of the
market share and the number three player shouldnt have less than 20%. This helps create enough balancein the market to derive maximum value for the consumer.
Mobile operators will face some hard choices in developing and protecting the role they want to play in a
given region and the ecosystem at-large. The strategy they choose will have a direct impact on the
expected EBITDA margins, investment required over the long-haul, how investors view them, and on the
competitive landscape of the country. Given, the fast pace of globalization, new rules and trends might
emerge over the course of this decade that further define communicationsand computingas we know
it.
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Competitive Landscape in Major Markets
Source: Competition and Evolution of Mobile Markets.
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Global Mobile Competitive Index
Source: Competition and Evolution of Mobile Markets.
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Eventually all markets consolidate to top 3
Source: Competition and Evolution of Mobile Markets.
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Mobile Apps and Services
Mobile is fundamentally reshaping how we as consumersspend from housing and healthcare to entertainment andtravel, from food and drinks to communication andtransportation. Mobile not only influences purchasebehavior but also post purchase opinions. When theshare button is literally a second away, consumers arewillingly sharing more information than ever before.Mobile is thus helping close the nirvana gap for brandsand advertisers who seek to connect advertising to actual
transactions. The long-term battle is however for owningthe context of the users. Having the best knowledgeabout the user to help drive the transaction is the simplythe most valuable currency of commerce.
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Mobile impacts all purchase funnels
C t t th t l bl
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Contextthe most valuable currency
in mobile
Knowledge(about User)
Transactions(from User)
Demographics/ExplicitProfile
Interests/Implicit Profile
Sensor data
User Intent
Location
Presence
Physiologicalparameters
Calendar
Address Book
Social Community
Intellectual Community
M2M
Preferences
Devices in the vicinity
3rdParty Sources
Browsing, Watching,Previewing, Flipping
Purchasing, Payments
Communications
Search (Local, Online,Media)
User Experience
Gifting
Advertising
Pricing
Security/Authorization
DRIVES
Trusted Concierge
Trusted Advisor
Big Opportunities in becoming the trusted
Concierge/Advisor to the individual user
S t h bli Offd k t
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Smartphones are enabling Offdeck to
dominate app revenue
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MOBILE DATA TRAFFIC GROWTH
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Mobile Data Traffic Growth
In most western markets, data traffic is
doubling YOY
Sweden, US, Hong Kong, Japan, and Denmark
make the top 5 in terms of MB consumed per
capita
A Multi-pronged approach is needed to have a
sustainable strategy long term
Only a holistic strategy to deal with data
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Only a holistic strategy to deal with data
tsunami can help the operators long-term
As a result of the data tsunami, there are two types of opportunities that are being
created, one that take advantage of the data being generated in a way that enhances
the user experience and provides value and the other in technologies that help manage
the traffic data that will continue to grow exponentially.
To be able to stay ahead of the demand, significant planning needs to go in to deal with
the bits and bytes that are already exploding. New technical and business solutions will
be needed to manage the growth and profit from the services. Relying on only onesolution wont be an effective strategy to manage rising data demand.A holistic
approach to managing data traffic is neededand our analysis shows that the cost
structure can be reduced by more than half if a suite of solutions are deployed vs. a
single dimensional approach and thus bringing the hockey stick curves of data cost
more in line with the revenues and thus preserving the margins.
The decision making process within the operator organizations will need to bestreamlined as well. Operators should also consider creating a senior post which
focuses on both the cost side and the solution side so they can devise and institute a
sustainable long-term policy and keep the margins healthy.
Mobile data traffic growing faster
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Mobile data traffic growing faster
than online traffic, doubling Y/Y
Source: Managing Growth and Profits in the Yottabyte Era 2ndEdition
http://chetansharma.com/yottabyteera2.htm
Margin preservation key to all
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Margin preservation key to all
operator strategies
Managing data margins will be top
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Managing data margins will be top
priority for all operators
20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Japan
Sweden
New Zealand
Philippines
Hong Kong
Australia
Germany
Switzerland
Netherlands
DenmarkPortugal
Finland
Italy
Spain
UK
Singapore
Korea
France
Russia
Canada
USIndonesia
Brazil
ArgentinaIndia
China
Mexico Malaysia
South Africa
Data as % of Overall Network
Traffic
Dataas%o
fSe
rvices
Revenues
Reve
nue-Tr
affic
Equilibriu
m
ChetanSh
armaConsulting,2011
Source: Managing Growth and Profits in the Yottabyte Era 2ndEdition
http://chetansharma.com/yottabyteera2.htm
Management of Data Requires
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Management of Data Requires
Multiple Strategies
2G
4G
3G
Core Network
Radio Access Network Core Network
Mobile Backhaul
Fiber
Microwave
Copper
Light
Networks
GGSNRNC SGSN
Offloading Traffic
WiFi/FemtoCell
Offloading Traffic
Inter
netServices
Compression/Optimization of Data Traffic
Policy Management
Compression/Optimization
Optimization
Source: Managing Growth and Profits in the Yottabyte Era 2ndEdition
http://chetansharma.com/yottabyteera2.htm
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INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY WILL REMAINKEY TO LONG-TERM PRODUCT AND
COMPETITIVE STRATEGY SUCCESS
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IP is critical to long-term product strategy
The IP tussles are playing out as expected
Players with strong IP portfolios will be able to command betternegotiating positions, new revenue streams, competitive positioning
over the long-term
On average mobile companies file patents 1.7 times more in the US vs.
Europe Mobile Patent Leaders in US: IBM, Microsoft, Samsung
Mobile Patent Leaders in Europe: Alcatel-Lucent, Nokia, Samsung
Mobile Patent Leaders in Infrastructure: Samsung, Alcatel-Lucent,
Ericsson
Mobile Patent Leaders in Device/Software: Nokia, IBM, Microsoft
Mobile Patent Leaders in Service Providers: AT&T, NTT DoCoMo, Sprint
Top 20 control 1/3rdof the total mobile communications patent pool
Patent Power Rankings Mobile Communications
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Patent Power RankingsMobile Communications
Related Issued Patents 1993-2011
Rank US Europe US+Europe
1 IBM Alcatel-Lucent Samsung
2 Microsoft Nokia Nokia
3 Samsung Samsung Alcatel-Lucent
4 Nokia Sony IBM
5 Motorola Ericsson Ericsson
6 Ericsson RIM Microsoft
7 Intel Siemens Sony
8 Sony NTT DoCoMo Motorola
9 Alcatel-Lucent Fujitsu Qualcomm
10 AT&T Qualcomm Siemens
Based on an estimation of Mobile Communications Related Patents that have been granted by
The USPTO and the EPO. This assessment doesnt take a look at the quality or the value of the patents
Patent Power Rankings Mobile Communications
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Patent Power RankingsMobile Communications
Related Issued Patents 1993-2011
Rank OEM/Software Infrastructure Service Provider
1 Nokia Samsung AT&T
2 IBM Alcatel-Lucent NTT DoCoMo
3 Microsoft Ericsson Sprint
4 Sony Qualcomm Orange
5 Motorola Siemens Deutsche Telekom
6 Intel NEC Verizon
7 RIM LG British Telecom
8 HP Fujitsu Swisscom
9 Oracle Cisco Telecom Italia
10 SAP Broadcom SK Telecom
Based on an estimation of Mobile Communications Related Patents that have been granted by
The USPTO and the EPO. This assessment doesnt take a look at the quality or the value of the patents
Integration of IP with product strategy is
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Integration of IP with product strategy is
essential for competitiveness in mobile
Market
RequirementsProduct
Requirements
Design and
Development
IP competitive andrisk assessment
IP Protection Process
Public Disclosure
IP Management
Ideation
IP Analysis
IP driven Product Development Cycle
R&D, Other
Sources
Licensing
C
hetanSharm
aConsulting,
2011
NUMERIC
ANALYSIS
SUBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS
PATENT
PROGRAM
ANALYSIS
f() Patent Portfolio Quotient(PPQ)
Source: What is your Patent Portfolio Quotient?
http://chetansharma.com/patentportfolioquotient.htm
Improve your PPQ bytight integration with product
strategy
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WHAT TO EXPECT IN 2H 2011
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What to expect in 2H 2011
More Tiering, faster pace of change of plans. More options, family data plans
Cost reduction is as important as revenue generation. More players will align their value-chains and cost
structures
Radios will start connecting the digital world with the physical world with significant disruption opportunity
Mobile Payment Networks will remain intact for the near future as the ecosystem largely focuses on building
value on top of the existing exchange platforms
The intersection of Social, Location, Identity, and Gaming is creating new opportunities
With connectivity becoming pervasive, mobile will fundamentally start to alter the legacy infrastructure
retail, health, education, energy, computing, travel, entertainment
Significant tablet adoption in the enterprise directly impacting the traditional computer manufacturers
Both HTML5 and Apps will continue to grow, the relevancy to any given application will depend on the reach
and economics requirements
Mobile data growth will double again in 2011. Significant opportunities in managed and understanding of
mobile data growth
Regulators will need to evolve to keep up with the trend to keep their nation globally competitive IP will continue to surface as a key product strategy tool for players in the ecosystem
Significant progress in emerging areas like mHealth, mPayments will come from the developed world while
the western countries get mired in regulatory and legacy mess
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MOBILE FUTURE FORWARDMOBILE THOUGHT-LEADERSHIP SUMMIT
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Connected Universe. Unlimited Opportunities.
http://www.mobilefutureforward.com
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Exceptional Speakers. Actionable Insights.
Glenn Lurie, President, AT&T Mobility
Gibu Thomas, SVP - Online/Mobile, Walmart
Charlie Herrin, SVP - Products and Technology,Comcast
Jeremiah Zinn, EVP, MTV
Sanjiv Ahuja, CEO, LightSquared
Steve Mollenkopf, EVP and Group President,
Qualcomm
Danny Bowman, President - Connected Devices, Sprint
Nextel David Messenger, EVP, Head - Online/Mobile,
American Express
Prof. Cliff Nass, Human Computer Interaction,
Stanford University
Jason MacKenzie, President, HTC-Americas
Erik Moreno, SVP, Fox
Hank Skorny, Chief Strategy Officer, Real Networks Jerry Batt, CIO, PulteGroup
Jay Emmet, GM, OpenMarket
Janet Schijns, VP, Verizon Wireless
Mikael Back, VPProducts, Ericsson
Ken Denman, CEO, Openwave
Kris Rinne, SVP - Networks, AT&T Mobility
Mike Mulica, President, Synchronoss Technologies
Paul Palmieri, CEO, Millennial Media
Rob Glaser, Partner, Accel
Stephen Bye, CTO, Sprint
Suja Chandrasekaran, CIO, Timberland
Will Hsu, Chief Product Officer, AT&T Interactive
Ken Wirth, President, Alcatel Lucent Wireless
Abhi Ingle, VPAdvanced Mobility, AT&T Wireless
Amit Gupta, SVP and CTO, INQMobile
Carlos Domingo, CEO, Telefonica I&D
Matt Oomen, President, Reliance Communications
Braxton Woodham, Head of Engineering, AVOS
John SanGiovanni, Cofounder, Zumobi
Bob Gessel, VP/Head -Tech/Network Strategy, Ericsson Subba Rao, former CEO, Tata DoCoMo
Dale Nitschke, former President, Target
Mark Rolston, Chief Creative Officer, Frog Design
. and many more
f
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Discussions to inform your strategy
Is 4G a Game Changer?
Innovation at the Edges
Mobile Payments and Commerce
Disruption is in the air
Mobile Data Services from the Prism of the CIOs
Solving the 50 year Spectrum Crunch
Managing the Network Growth
Opportunities in the Emerging Markets
The Universe of Connected Devices
Analytics - How to Collect, Manage, and Use Data?
Multi-modal Interactions - How Consumers Adapt?
At the Intersection of Social, Mobile, Commerce, Content
Battle for the Homeplaying in the n-screen world
What do Developers Want?
A Smarter Planet - The Role of Mobile in Enhancing Lifestyles and in Making Everyday Decisions Drivers for New Sources of Revenue
Role of Regulations - Spectrum, Privacy, Net-Neutrality
Mobile Cloud Computing
Monetizing the network
From 3 Screens to Multi-screens
Mobile Universe in 2020
l k f d h i f
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We look forward to hearing from you
Chetan Sharma
TW: @chetansharma
http://www.chetansharma.com
Mobile Future Forward
TW: @mfutureforward
http://www.mobilefutureforward.com
Research. Technology. Strategy. Intellectual Property. Thought Leadership Summits.
mailto:[email protected]://www.chetansharma.com/mailto:[email protected]://www.mobilefutureforward.com/http://www.mobilefutureforward.com/mailto:[email protected]://www.chetansharma.com/mailto:[email protected]Top Related