Minnesota Demographic Change And Dentistry Tom Gillaspy, State Demographer Mn Dept of Administration...
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Transcript of Minnesota Demographic Change And Dentistry Tom Gillaspy, State Demographer Mn Dept of Administration...
Minnesota Demographic Change And Dentistry
Tom Gillaspy, State Demographer
Mn Dept of Administration
March 2008
Minnesota Ranks Highly in Many Social/Economic Indicators
• 2nd percent of 16-64 employed (76.9%)
• 8th lowest poverty rate
• 1st percent with health insurance 2004-06 ave
• 9th median family income in 2006
• 1st Kids Count 2007
• 4th lowest rate of disability among people age 16-64
• 1st with at least high school degree (90.7%)
• 12th with at least a bachelor’s degree
• 1st home ownership
• 2nd United Health Foundation ranking of state healthiness 2007
Updated October 2007
Rank Mn Rate US Rate
Motor Vehicle Deaths 3 1.0 1.5
Obesity 21 22.6% 23.1%
Lack of Health Insurance 1 8.9% 15.7%
Pre Natal Care 27 75.8% 75.4%
Public Health Spending 6 $249 $162
Immunization (children 19-35 months) 11 85.2% 80.9%
Infant Mortality 2 4.8 6.7
YPPL 1 5728 7564
Minnesota Ranks Highly In Many Health Outcome Measures
2005 United Health Foundation Rankings
Successful, YesBut Demographic Mega-trends Are
Altering The Face Of Minnesota
Suburban growth/ rural and central city not growing
Increasingly diverse
Aging
And these changes are altering the client base for dentistry as well as the workforce
Minnesota Is Projected To Add 1 ¼ Million People In The Next 30 Years
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
20002007
20102015
20202025
20302035
Minnesota State Demographic Center Projections
Most Growth Is In The Twin City Suburban Doughnut
• Twin Cities accounts for 78% of growth in the state
• Suburban ring is spreading outward
• 7 of 13 metro counties in fastest 100 growing of the nation
• Rural and central city declines since 1950
• Increasing metropolitan and lakeshore development have implications for natural resource management
Population Change
Loss
Gain Under 1,000
Gain 5,000 to 1,000
Gain More Than 5,000
Population Change 2000-04Census Bureau Estimate
Minnesota is Growing More Diverse
• Minnesota is one of the least diverse states in the nation—13% minority v US 32%
• Over half of total population growth this decade is minority.
• And this is related to age—new, diverse population is younger
Upper Midwest Becoming More Diverse But Still Less Than The Nation
4%
6%
6%
9%
9%
24%
9%
14%
9%
13%
14%
33%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
Iowa
Minnesota
North Dakota
South Dakota
Wisconsin
United States
Percent Population of Color
2005
1990
Note: Population except white alone, not Hispanic, 2005 Census Bureau estimate
Minnesota’s Children Are More Diverse Than Older People
20%
16%17%
12%
8%6%
5%3%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Under 1
0
10 to
19
20 to
29
30 to
39
40 to
49
50 to
59
60 to
69
70+
Age Group
Pe
rce
nt
Min
ori
ty
2000 Census
Students Speaking Non-English Language At Home: Much Of The Growth In ESL Enrollment Is Directly Related To Growth In
Local Employment
25.9%26.2%
27.6%30.5%30.6%
31.6%32.8%
36.6%37.3%37.5%
43.4%18.7%
11.0%3.0%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Mountain LakeMadelia
Westbrook-Walnut GroveSleepy Eye
MinneapolisColumbia Heights
Pelican RapidsBrooklyn Center
RichfieldWorthington
St. PaulNational 03State 06-07State 93-94
Percent of Students in 2006-07
Source: Mn Dept of Education data, Districts of more than 100 enrollment.
Aging Is The Dominant Demographic Trend In Minnesota And The Nation
• It is not normal for a society to age
• Dramatic changes will be seen in 2008 and 2011 and beyond
• The leading edge of “Boomers” turn 60 this year!
• By 2020, the number of Minnesotans 65+ will increase by 53%. By 2030 it will double
• Aging, combined with growth and increased diversity will lead to challenges and opportunities not fully anticipated
From 2005 to 2015, Largest Growth in Minnesota Will Be in Ages 55 to 69
16,2003,9006,700
44,50098,000
119,400107,200
55,500-43,400
-64,100-700
67,20051,800
-9,600-29,200
7,40049,100
37,600
85+80-8475-7970-7465-6960-6455-5950-5445-4940-4435-3930-3425-2920-2415-1910-14
5-90-4
Source: Minnesota State Demographic CenterNumbers are rounded
The Boom Generation Starts Turning 65 in 2011
65+ Passes School Age Around 2020
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
18-24
65+
5-17
Census counts & State Demographer projection, revised 2007
Aging Will Alter Oral Health Services
• Baby-boom aging--maintenance on complicated dental appliances and prosthetics, such as bridges.
• Older Americans are retaining more of their teeth than in the past, and are thus more likely to experience destructive periodontal disease.
• While the percentage of individuals older than age 65 without any teeth has declined tremendously over past 20-30 years, it is still higher than for those younger than 65.
• Older adults often have additional medical conditions that cause a higher level of maintenance to be necessary in order to maintain their oral health.
Minnesota Will See a 30 Percent Jump in Workers Turning Age 62 Beginning 2008
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
7/05 to7/06
7/06 to7/07
7/07 to7/08
7/08 to7/09
7/09 to7/10
7/10 to7/11
7/11 to7/12
Year Turning Age 62
Wo
rke
d W
ith
in P
as
t 5
ye
ars
2005 ACS
Competition For The Future Workforce Will Increase
6.8%
4.5%
-1.6%-2.2%
13.0%
-1.2%
-3.5% -3.0%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
2000-05 2005-10 2010-15 2015-20
Per
cen
t C
han
ge
18-2
4 US
Mn
Census Bureau US Proj, Mn State Demographer revised 2007
Migration Will Be An Increasingly Important Component To The Slowing
Labor Force Growth
-100,000
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
2000-10 2010-20 2020-30
Total Natural Part Rate Migration
Net Labor Force Growth
State Demographer projection revised 2007
Two Thirds of Active Minnesota Dentist Are 50+
4% 5%
19% 14%
26%
14%
30%
36%
21%30%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Nation Minnesota
Per
cen
t O
f D
enti
sts
60+
50-59
40-49
30-39
Under 30
2006 American Community Survey
Dentists Are Older Than The Overall Workforce
66%
20%
28%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Dentists
Dental Hygenists& Assistants
Total Workforce
Percent Of Workforce Age 50+
2006 ACS