Michael P Totten A Climate For Life Mesh Talk Bioneer Los Angeles 12 09 09

A CLIMATE FOR LIFE MESHOr, How Many Bits & Wits (Collective

Intelligence) Does It Take to Turn Global Climate Threats into Sustainable

Prosperity and Well-Being

Michael P. Totten ([email protected]) Chief Advisor, Climate, Energy & Green Technologies, CI’s Center for Environmental Leadership in Business

Presentation to the

Bioneers of Los Angeles

December 09, 2009

mailto:[email protected]

Global GHG Emissions

Based on 3 Celsius

climate sensitivity

Minimum arctic sea-ice extent from 1979 to 2007

Observed Antarctic Warming Trend ( C/decade) from 1957-2006

Source: The Copenhagen Diagnosis, 2009: Updating the World on the Latest Climate Science., Ian Allison, Nathan Bindoff, Robert Bindschadler, Peter Cox, Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudre ,

Matthew England, Jane Francis, Nicolas Gruber, Alan Haywood , David Karoly , Georg Kaser, Corinne Le Quéré, Tim Lenton, Michael Mann, Ben McNeil, Andy Pitman, Stefan Rahmstorf , Eric

Rignot, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Stephen Schneider, Steven Sherwood, Richard Somerville, Konrad Steffen, Eric Steig, Martin Visbeck, Andrew Weaver., www.copenhagendiagnosis.com/

http://www.copenhagendiagnosis.com/

Trend in Ocean Surface Temperature ( C, 1959-2008)

Source: The Copenhagen Diagnosis, 2009: Updating the World on the Latest Climate Science., Ian Allison, Nathan Bindoff, Robert Bindschadler, Peter Cox, Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudre ,

Matthew England, Jane Francis, Nicolas Gruber, Alan Haywood , David Karoly , Georg Kaser, Corinne Le Quéré, Tim Lenton, Michael Mann, Ben McNeil, Andy Pitman, Stefan Rahmstorf ,

Eric Rignot, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Stephen Schneider, Steven Sherwood, Richard Somerville, Konrad Steffen, Eric Steig, Martin Visbeck, Andrew Weaver.,

www.copenhagendiagnosis.com/

http://www.copenhagendiagnosis.com/

Potential Tipping Points Triggering Abrupt, Irreversible Climate Change

6th largest extinction – 1000 times the natural background rate

Source: F. Ackerman, E.A. Stanton, S.J. DeCanio et al., The Economics of 350: The Benefits and Costs of Climate Stabilization, October 2009, www.e3network.org/

Main difference between two projections is assumption of rate of technology diffusion

Comparing Cumulative Emissions for 350 ppm CO2 TrajectoryGtCO2

BAU >80 GtCO2 and >850 ppm

Based on 6 Celsius

climate sensitivity

http://www.e3network.org/

Where the world needs to go: energy-related CO2 emissions per capita

Source: WDR, adapted from NRC (National Research Council). 2008. The National Academies Summit on America’s Energy Future: Summary of a Meeting.

Washington, DC: National Academies Press.based on data from World Bank 2008. World Development Indicators 2008.

The GOOD news is there does not appear to be any scientific,

technological or economic barrier to achieving atmospheric

stabilization of GHGs at a level low enough to avoid global climate

catastrophe – or 350 ppm CO2.

The GREAT news is it appears feasible this could be done while

growing a prosperous economy, ending poverty, and halting species

extinction and ecosystem destruction.

CLIMATE CATASTROPHE THREAT THE GOOD & GREAT NEWS AND

THE BAD & WORSE NEWS

The BAD news is the estimated net present value of climate change

impacts from BAU (business-as-usual) is $1240 TRILLION, assuming

stabilization of CO2 at between 550 and 800 ppm by 2100.

The even WORSE news is that humanity is on pace to exceed 850 ppm.

Noel Parry et al., California Green Innovation Index 2009, Next 10, www.next10.org/

http://www.next10.org/

CO2 Abatement potential & cost for 2020

Zero net cost counting efficiency savings. Not counting the efficiency savings the

incremental cost of achieving a 450 ppm path is €55-80 billion per year between 2010–2020 for

developing countries and €40–50 billion for developed countries, or less than 1 % of global GDP, or

about half the €215 billion per year currently spent subsidizing fossil fuels.

Ecological Green Power Biodiversity ProtectionRadical Energy Efficiency

Adopting Win-Win-Win Portfolios

Abundant ICT Sector Market Expansion Opportunities

Use portfolio of multiple-benefit actions to becomeclimate positive and create new marketing opportunities

1) RADICAL ENERGY EFFICIENCYPursue vigorous, rigorous & continuous

improvements that reap monetary savings, ancillary

benefits, & GHG reductions (same w/ water &

resources)

2) PROTECT THREATENED ECOSYSTEMS

Add conservation carbon offset options to portfolio

that deliver triple benefits (climate protection,

biodiversity preservation, and promotion of

community sustainable development)

3) ECOLOGICAL GREEN POWER/FUELSSelect only verifiable „green power/fuels‟ that are

climate- & biodiversity-friendly, accelerate not slow

poverty reduction, & avoid adverse impacts

Adopting Portfolios of Best Policies

1824 Liters per year (10.6 km/l x 19,370 km per year)

4.8 tons CO2 emissions per year

~34€ ($48) to Reduce Emissions from Deforestation at 7 € ($10) per tCO2 Adds 1.6 pence per liter

=

$-

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

$40

$45

$50

CCS REDD

Geological storage (CCS) vs Ecological storage (REDD)

Carbon Mitigation Cost

U.S. fossil Electricity CO2

mitigation cost annually (2.4 GtCO2 in 2007)

~$100 billion~3 ¢ per kWh

~$18 billion~0.5 ¢ per kWh

$ per ton CO2

Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS)

Reduced Emissions Deforestation & Degradation (REDD)

Source: Michael Totten, REDD is CCS NOW, December 2008

0

U.S. fossil Electricity in 2007 2.4 billion tons CO2 emissions

Tropical Deforestation 2007 13 million hectares burned7 billion tons CO2 emissions

$7.50 per ton CO21/2 cent per kWh

$18 billion/yr REDD tradePoverty reduction

Prevent Species loss

A win-win-win outcome

A win-win-win outcome

At the Governors Global Climate Summit in Sept., California Governor Schwarzenegger and

10 other governors from the United States, Brazil and Indonesia are sending a letter to U.S.

President Obama, Brazilian President Lula da Silva, and Indonesian President Yudhoyono

urging them to include forest protection in international and national climate change policies .

High Quality Multi-Benefit

A carbon tax applied to emissions from agriculture and land-use

change would encourage protection of natural resources

Source: Wise, M. A., K. V. Calvin, A. M. Thomson, L.E. Clarke, B. Bond- Lamberty, R. D. Sands, S. J. Smith, A. C. Janetos, and J. A. Edmonds. 2009a.

“Implications of Limiting CO2 Concentrations for Land Use and Energy.” Science 324 (5931): 1183–86.

So Much to be DoneSo Little Time

Who You Gonna Call?

MIO GEO

ICT/IP Companies Get IT! Bits Can Deliver Services Better than Atoms

The key challenge is transforming last century’s pervasive legacy regulations, policies, and

incentives for expanding resource supplies to harnessing this century’s opportunities for

delivering the myriad smarter, greener ICT-based services.

The WIKIPEDIA MODEL: In 6 years and with only 6 paid employees, Catalyzed a value-adding creation now 10 times larger than the Encyclopedia Britannica, Growing, Updated, Corrected daily by 80,000 volunteer editors and content authors, Translating content into 150+ languages, and Visited daily by some 5% of worldwide Internet traffic.

Cognitive Surplus

Large-scale distributed work-force projects are impractical in theory, but doable in reality.

The Internet-connected population worldwide watches roughly a trillion hours of TV a year.

One per cent of that is 100 Wikipedia projects per year worth of peer participation.

www.shirky.com/herecomeseverybody/2008/04/lo

oking-for-the-mouse.html

http://calacanis.com/2008/04/30/clay-shirky-cognitive-surplus-talk-at-web-2-0/

Clay Shirkey’s

http://www.shirky.com/herecomeseverybody/2008/04/looking-for-the-mouse.html

























Smart grid

efficiency solar

Clean water

food

mobility

finance

light

learning

Eco services

wind

wiki

tools

Climate Mitigation

Poverty Reduction & Elimination

Preventing Species Extinction

Smart Energy Services

Avoiding Oil & Resource Wars

Smart

Utility

Services

ICT

Smart

Financing Services

Public Incentives

Focus+Context Visual Foraging Tools

IP platform for creating A Climate for Life

Climate Mesh Template for Green Development Strategies= hyperlink to Mesh resources

Knowledge toolsK

no

wle

dge

Ne

ed

s

CLICKS AWAY Web access, share,

add, distribute, produce, collaborate around shared vision

Climate Mesh for Raising the Bar Going Beyond Reinvention of the Wheel

• Interdisciplinary linkages

• Visual salience of connected issues

• Easier exploration of nested hierarchies for user to explore without getting lost

• Recognizing relationships previously unaware of

• Relevance ranking for surfacing best-in-play examples (and best-to-avoid alerts)

• Multi-faceted computation and visualization tools

• Capacity to examine and compare multi-criteria and multi-attribute challenges, problems, solutions

• Access to continuously evolving results, learning curves, experience curves, insights, understandings, and capability to communicate, query, converse on findings

• Accessible by smart phones & netbooks worldwide

Climate

Mitigation

End-Use

Efficiency options

ICT tools

Reduced

Deforestation Solar

Photovoltaics

Trans-disciplinary Connections & Linkages for Leveraging Greater Insight & Value

Utility services

Utility Services

IRP including End-

Use Efficiency

Incentives

Decoupling

regulation Onsite Solar PV

Trans-disciplinary Connections & Linkages for Leveraging Greater Value

New York

California

USA minus CA & NYPer Capital

Electricity

Consumption

165 GW

Coal

Power

Plants

Californian‟s have

net savings of

$1,000 per family

[EPPs]

“Decoupling” & Integrated Resource Planning key to harnessing End-Use “Efficiency Power Plants”For delivering least-cost & risk electricity, natural gas & water services

Utility’s Earnings Go Up even as Revenues Go Down

Customers’ Bills Go Down even as Rates Go Up

More Retail Efficiency Power Plants - EPPsLess Need for Coal Mines & Power Plants

Less Coal Power Plants

Less Coal Rail Cars

Less Coal Mines

Solar Fusion Waste as Earth Nutrients –

The Power in the Photon Bitstream

Earth receives more solar energy every 90 minutes than humanity consumes all year

In the USA, cities and residences cover 56 million hectares.

Every kWh of current U.S. energy requirements can be met simply by applying photovoltaics (PV) to 7% of this area—on roofs, parking lots, along highway walls, on sides of buildings, and in other dual-use scenarios.

Experts say we wouldn’t have to appropriate a single acre of new land to make PV our primary energy source!

90% of America’s current electricity could be supplied with PV systems built in the “brown-fields”— the estimated 2+ million hectares of abandoned industrial sites that exist in our nation’s cities.

Larry Kazmerski, Dispelling the 7 Myths of Solar Electricity, 2001, National Renewable Energy Lab, www.nrel.gov/;

Cleaning Up

Brownfield

Sites w/

PV solar

Solar Photovoltaics (PV) satisfying 90% of

total US electricity from brownfields

http://www.nrel.gov/

SunSlate Building-Integrated

Photovoltaics (BIPV) commercial

building in Switzerland

Material

Replaced

Economic

MeasureBeijing Shanghai

Polished

Stone

NPV ($)

BCR

PBP (yrs)

+$18,586

2.33

1

+$14,237

2.14

1

Aluminum

NPV ($)

BCR

PBP (yrs)

+$15,373

1.89

2

+$11,024

1.70

2

Net Present Values (NPV), Benefit-Cost Ratios (BCR)

& Payback Periods (PBP) for „Architectural‟ BIPV

(Thin Film, Wall-Mounted PV) in Beijing and

Shanghai (assuming a 15% Investment Tax Credit)

Byrne et al, Economics of Building Integrated PV in China, July 2001, Univ. of Delaware, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy, Twww.udel.edu/ceep/T]

Economics of Commercial BIPV

Building-Integrated Photovoltaics

http://www.udel.edu/ceep/

Reference costs of facade-cladding materials

BIPV is so economically attractive because it

captures both energy savings and savings from

displacing other expensive building materials.

Eiffert, P., Guidelines for the Economic Evaluation of Building-Integrated Photovoltaic Power Systems, International Energy Agency PVPS Task 7:

Photovoltaic Power Systems in the Built Environment, Jan. 2003, National Renewable Energy Lab, NREL/TP-550-31977, www.nrel.gov/

Economics of Commercial BIPV

http://www.nrel.gov/

Attributes of breakeven PV systems

Attributes & incentives include:

Compensation for power at retail electric rates

Tax credits

Financing, leasing, and depreciation options

Net-metering options and/or rate-based incentives

Building credits for architectural applications

Willingness to pay for clean power and innovation

Quality of solar resource and customer load match

Progressive state government, regulatory, and utility support.

The best niche markets are the locations that have the best combinations of these attributes and incentives.

Source: Christy Herig, Customer-Sited Photovoltaics Focusing on Markets that Really Shine, NREL, www.nrel.gov/research/pv/cust-sited.html

http://www.nrel.gov/research/pv/cust-sited.html



Denver Neighborhood solar smart mini-grids – City Park West

Smart Grid Web-based Solar Power Auctions

Smart Grid Collective intelligence design based on digital map algorithms continuously calculating solar gain. Information used to rank expansion of solar panel locations.

Corn ethanol

Cellulosic ethanol

Wind-battery turbine spacing

Wind turbines ground footprint

Solar-battery

Mark Z. Jacobson, Wind Versus Biofuels for Addressing Climate, Health, and Energy, Atmosphere/Energy Program, Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, March 5,

2007, http://www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/E85vWindSol

Area to Power 100% of U.S. Onroad Vehicles

WEB CALCULATOR- VISUALIZER – COMPARISON OF LAND NEEDED TO POWER VEHICLES

Wind & Solar experts

Solar-battery and Wind-battery refer to battery storage of these intermittent renewable resources in plug-in electric driven vehicles

Figures of Merit

Great Plains area1,200,000 mi2

Provide 100% U.S. electricity400,000 3MW wind turbines

Platform footprint6 mi2

Large Wyoming Strip Mine>6 mi2

Total WindFarm spacing area

37,500 mi2

Still available for farming and prairie restoration

90%+ (34,000 mi2)

CO2 U.S. electricity sector40% USA total GHG emissions

95% U.S. terrestrial wind resources in Great Plains

The three sub-regions of the Great Plains are: Northern Great Plains = Montana, North Dakota,

South Dakota; Central Great Plains = Wyoming, Nebraska, Colorado, Kansas; Southern Great Plains

= Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Texas. (Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 1998, USDA 1997 Census of Agriculture)

Although agriculture controls about 70% of Great Plains land area, it contributes 4 to 8% of the Gross Regional Product.

Wind farms could enable one of the greatest economic booms in American history for Great Plains rural communities, while also enabling one of world’s largest restorations of native prairie ecosystems

How?

Wind Farm Royalties – Could Doublefarm/ranch income with 30x less land area

$0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250

windpower farm

non-wind farm

US Farm Revenues per hectare

govt. subsidy $0 $60

windpower royalty $200 $0

farm commodity revenues $50 $64

windpower farm non-wind farm

Williams, Robert, Nuclear and Alternative Energy Supply Options for an Environmentally Constrained World, April 9, 2001, http://www.nci.org/

Wind Royalties – Sustainable source of

Rural Farm and Ranch Income

Crop revenue Govt. subsidy

Wind profits

http://www.nci.org/T

Great Plains Multi-TW Wind Resources in Varying

Stages of ICT/IPC Technical, Ecological, Economic, Financial

Assessment, Mapping, Visualization, Installation,

Operation & Post-Production Options

Montana South Dakota

Wyoming

Colorado

New Mexico

Nebraska

Iowa

Oklahoma

Texas

1) Restoring the deep-rooting, native prairie grasslands that absorb and store soil carbon and stop soil erosion (hence generating a potential revenue stream from selling CO2

mitigation credits in the emerging global carbon trading market);

Potential Synergisms

2) Re-introducing free-ranging bison into these prairie grasslands -- which naturally co-evolved together for millennia -- generating a potential revenue stream from marketing high-value organic, free-range beef.

Two additional potential revenue streams in Great Plains:

Also More Resilient to Climate-triggered

Droughts

WHO & WHERE?

National Green & REDD Economic Development Strategies launched in 2009 by the Presidents

of Suriname and Guyana

WIN-WIN-WIN PORTFOLIOSLow-Deforestation, Low-Carbon Development Strategies, using REDD carbon savings traded for revenues to help fund green economic development.

ICT/IP intensive approach could create open source public knowledge assets for other nations and cities to leverage.

• 165,000 km2 in size• 4 times size of Netherlands• 470,000 people, 80% live in

Paramaribo• 25% of the population live

on less than $2 a day

Suriname

Paramaribo

A South American nation with a population the size

of a small city.

• 215,000 km2 in size• About the size of Oregon• 770,000 people, 90% reside

on coastal strip (~10% of Guyana land area)

• 17% of the population live on less than $2 a day

Guyana

A South American nation with a population the size

of Portland, OR

National Green & REDD

Economic Development Strategy

Offshore Wind Farms

Green Bldgs

REDD Carbon RevenuesUtility financial incentives

Standards

Trust fund

Spatial

mapping

motors appliances

www.seattle.gov/mayor/climate/

Over 1000 mayors representing 75% of U.S.

cities with 30,000 people or more are committed to

reducing their CO2 emissions below 1990 levels

More than 1000 U.S. Cities

Other Users of the Open Source Climate

Mesh public knowledge assets and

resources

http://www.seattle.gov/mayor/climate/

More than 2000 global companies

doing GHG inventories

Other Users of the Open Source Climate

Mesh public knowledge assets and

resources

Over 500 U.S. colleges

Other Users of the Open Source Climate Mesh public

knowledge assets and resources

WEBRARYknowledge-in-action

examples

Onsite & field-erected

solar power systems

End-Use Efficiency

Utility rebate

programs

Local, state, federal

Financial Incentives Economic Payback

Calculator

Solar design &

Siting tools

Utility auction

Calculators

4D CAD

visual toolsEconomic Payback

Calculator

procurement

Smart Grid and Plug-in Electric Vehicles

Wind farms on Great Plains

Water savings

Transmission lines

Utility financial incentives

Water challenges of poor

Microfinance village water

Waterborne infectious diseases

Village UV water

purification businessesUV water

purification

Bottom of the Pyramid Growth

Three to four $100 microfinance loans enables most Grameen Bank borrowers to move out of poverty

Creating a World

Without Poverty

Social Business and the

future of Capitalism

$300 Billion Capital Needed to MicroFinance Poor Out of Poverty

Evan Mills, GROCC Demonstration Project: Affordable, High-Performance Solar LED Lighting Pilot via the Millennium Villages Project, http://eetd.lbl.gov/emills

http://eetd.lbl.gov/emills

Women are enjoying the hazardless and hassle free lighting system in their daily life.

They are getting opportunities to earn extra money by utilizing their time after dusk by sewing or poultry farming.

Village Micro-finance Bank & Village Solar Power (Grameen Bank & Grameen Shakti)

Evan Mills, GROCC Demonstration Project: Affordable, High-Performance Solar LED Lighting Pilot via the Millennium Villages Project, http://eetd.lbl.gov/emills

http://eetd.lbl.gov/emills

Every hour 200 children under 5 die from drinking dirty water. Every year, 60 million children reach

adulthood stunted for good.

Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, Purdue

Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf

http://www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water 2008.pdf



4 billion annual episodes of diarrhea exhaust physical strength to perform labor -- cost billions of

dollars in lost income to the poor






A new water disinfector for thedeveloping world’s poor

• Meet /exceed WHO & EPA criteria for disinfection

• Energy efficient: 60W UV lamp disinfects 1 ton per hour (1000 liters, 264 gallons, or 1 m3)

• Low cost: 4¢ disinfects 1 ton of water• Reliable, Mature components• Can treat unpressurized water• Rapid throughput: 12 seconds• Low maintenance: 4x per year• No overdose risk• Fail-safe

DESIGN CRITERIA

Dr Ashok Gadgil, inventor

WaterHealth Intl deviceAshok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries,

Purdue Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-

water%202008.pdf




WHI’s Investment Cost Advantage vs. Other Treatment Options






Business model reaches underserved by including financing for the purchase and installation of

our systems. User fees for treated water are used to repay loans and to cover the expenses of

operating and maintaining the equipment and facility.

Community members hired to conduct day-to-day maintenance of these “micro-utilities,” thus

creating employment and building capacity, as well as generating entrepreneurial opportunities

for local residents to provide related services, such as sales and distribution of the purified water

to outlying areas.

And because the facilities are owned by the communities in which they are installed, the user

fees become attractive sources of revenue for the community after loans have been repaid.

WaterHealth International






E-bikes are now among the cheapest & cleanest

travel mode options in China

Source: Cherry, C. R. 2007. “Electric Two-Wheelers in China: Analysis of Environmental, Safety, and Mobility Impacts.” Ph.D. thesis. UC Berkeley; Weinert, J.,

C. Ma, and C. Cherry. 2007. “The Transition to Electric Bikes in China: History and Key Reasons for Rapid Growth.” Transportation 34 (3): 301–18.

Energy R&D Expenditure 1974-2007

Source: IEA 2008a; IEA, http://www.iea.org/Textbase/stats/rd.asp Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD),

http://www.oecd.org/statsportal .

http://www.iea.org/Textbase/stats/rd.asp

http://www.oecd.org/statsportal

Climate change is not a priority yet

Source: Gallup Poll, March 5-8, 2009, www.gallup.com/poll/106660/Little-Increase-Americans-Global-Warming-Worries.aspx.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/106660/Little-Increase-Americans-Global-Warming-Worries.aspx











Harnessing Collective Intelligence to:Prevent Climate Catastrophe

Avert Mass Species ExtinctionPromote Green Prosperity & Well-being

Small local adjustments for big global benefits: Switching from SUVs to fuel-

Efficient passenger cars in the USA alone would nearly offset the emissions

generated by providing energy to 1.6 billion more people

Source: BTS (Bureau of Transportation Statistics). 2008. Key Transportation Indicators November 2008. Washington, DC: U. S. Department of Transportation.

If we want to hold CO2 even to 550 ppmv, even with

aggressive energy efficiency we will need as much

clean, carbon‐free energy within the next 40 years,

online, as the entire oil, natural gas, coal, and nuclear

industries today combined – 10 to 15 terawatts. This

is not changing a few light bulbs in Fresno, this is

building an industry comparable to 50 ExxonMobils.

Professor Nate Lewis, Caltech

Innovation Intensity of U.S. Industrial Sectors

(R&D investment as percentage of annual revenues)

Intensive beef production is a heavy producer of

greenhouse gas emissions

Source: Williams, Audsley, and Sandars 2006.Determining the Environmental Burdens and Resource Use in the Production of Agricultural and Horticultural

Commodities. London: Department for Environmental Food and Rural Affairs.

Note: The figure shows CO2 equivalent emissions in kilograms resulting from the production (in an industrial country) of 1 kilogram of a specific product. The

car and road image conveys the number of kilometers one must drive in a gasoline- powered car averaging 11.5 kilometers a liter to produce the given

amount of CO2e emissions. For example, producing 1 kilogram of beef and driving 79.1 kilometers both result in 16 kilograms of emissions.

Michael P Totten A Climate For Life Mesh Talk Bioneer Los Angeles 12 09 09

Education

Transcript of Michael P Totten A Climate For Life Mesh Talk Bioneer Los Angeles 12 09 09