HISPARC STUDENT CONFERENCE

MONDAY 6TH JULY

Melissa, Connie, Melissa, Jieyi, Ambereen, Dorothy

King Edward VI High school for Girls

Sunspots: what are they?

Galileo Galilei was the first to make observations of sunspots with his telescope in 1610.

Coronal mass

ejections

Butterfly diagrams

We think that higher solar activity results in a lower intensity of cosmic rays.

Comparing data between 2009 and 2014

2009: This year has a relatively low number of sunspots: it is around the solar minimum.2014: There is a greater number of sunspots.

Hypothesis

Before we began to collate our data, we hypothesised that at the solar maximum there would be more muons detected, due to the increase in solar magnetic field strength. Thus, the sun would 'focus' the cosmic rays toward us.

Solar field strengthP

ola

r fie

ld (

G)

Station Number 502

Based in Amsterdam, In the science park in Amsterdam-Oost

Station 502:Universiteit Van Amsterdam

Analysing the data Download hourly data Average data for every month

- excluding anomalies Formula ‘ =AVERAGE(…) Average data for the years

- excluding anomalies Work out standard deviation

Conclusion of data

Ratio of the difference in the averages to the combined standard deviation : 1.401087

Ratio of the difference in the averages to the combined standard deviation after exception of anomalies : 3.967918

Enough to call a difference in number of events

More events in the solar minimum than the solar maximum

Results – station 502

<= With anomalies

Without anomalies =>

Station Number 501

Nikhev

Station 501 (Nikhev)

Located very close to Station 502

Both in the Science Park

Analysing the data Again, downloaded hourly

data This time, over full period

from 2009 – 2014 Anomalies deleted Monthly averages

calculated (formula =AVERAGE(…))

Standard deviation calculated

April 2009 was the only month in the six year period for which the detector gave no reliable dataStatistically

significant result – Ratio of the difference in the averages to the combined standard deviation3.406075

Station 501 (2009-2014)

JAN

MAY

SEPTJA

NM

AYSEPT

JAN

MAY

SEPTJA

NM

AYSEPT

JAN

MAY

SEPTJA

NM

AYSEPT

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

2009 - 2014

MONTH (YEARS 2009 - 2014)

CO

UN

T R

AT

E

The graph shows the average monthly count rate from the solar minimum (2009) to the solar maximum (2014)

There is a clear decrease in the count rate from 2009 to 2014 (confirmed by the statistical analysis), appearing to support Parker’s 1963 theory of cosmic-ray modulation by solar wind

MINIMUM MAXIMUM

Looking at sunspot data 2009 - 2014

Sunspot data for years 2009 – 2014 downloaded

Monthly averages calculated

Graph plottedJA

NUARYM

AY

SEPTEMBER

JANUARY

MAY

SEPTEMBER

JANUARY

MAY

SEPTEMBER

JANUARY

MAY

SEPTEMBER

JANUARY

MAY

SEPTEMBER

JANUARY

MAY

SEPTEMBER

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

SUNSPOT DATA

MONTH (YEARS 2009 - 2014)

NU

MB

ER

OF

SU

NS

PO

TS

MINIMUM MAXIMUM

Comparing cosmic ray intensity to sunspot data

Graphs illustrate a clear anti-correlation

Support theory that as solar activity increases, cosmic ray intensity decreases

JANUARY

JUNE

NOVEMBER

APRIL

SEPTEMBER

FEBRUARYJU

LY

DECEMBER

MAY

OCTOBER

MARCH

AUGUST

JANUARY

JUNE

NOVEMBER

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

MONTH (YEARS 2009 - 2014)

NU

MB

ER

OF

SU

NS

PO

TS

JAN

JUN

NOVAPR

SEPTFEB

JUL

DECM

AYOCT

MAR

AUGJA

NJU

NNOV

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

2009 - 2014

MONTH (YEARS 2009 - 2014)

CO

UN

T R

AT

E

SUNSPOT DATA

MINIMUM MAXIMUM

Detector 13 (Hervormd Lyceum West – Amsterdam, Netherlands)

• 2009 = Months missing: most of July, August and September. No data for October, November, December

• 2014 = Full year of data

Detector 13 (Hervormd Lyceum West – Amsterdam, Netherlands)

Graphs (2014)

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 4000

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

Muons Detected in 2014 [daily averages]

Days

Number of Events

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 4000

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Muons Detected in 2014 - specific months [daily averages]

Days

Number of Events

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101000

1050

1100

1150

1200

1250

1300

1350

Muons Detected in 2014 [monthly averages]

Months

Number of Events

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101100

1150

1200

1250

1300

1350

1400

Muons Detected in 2009 [monthly averages]

Months

Number of Events

Graphs (2009)

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 4000

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

Muons Detected in 2009 [daily averages]

Days

Number of Events

Statistical Analysis

Averages: 2009 = 1283.95 (Maximum)

2014 = 1228.88 (Minimum)

Difference = 55.07

Ratio of the difference in the averages to the combined standard deviation= 1.3498

Station 8103: Investigating the Solar Cycle Aim: To determine periods of high and

low solar activity.

Year Month Day Total North South Average 7 days

Jieyi & Melissa

Graphs

October 2009

October 2014

Graphs (Cont.)Minimum (2009)

This shows that the lowest average value of the week was on October 18th 2009. Despite the values for this week not being the lowest they could have been, we needed to ensure the same week was chosen as in 2014 (maximum).

Maximum (2014)

This shows the highest average value of the week was on October 21st 2014. This was also the highest value of the whole solar cycle (as shown by the scatter graph on the last slide).

October 21st 2014

October 18th 2009

Data Analysis

The process involved:Finding the total sum of each dayAveraging the whole weekCalculating the standard

deviation of both yearsComparing the results:

ΔS ~ =SQRT(B29^2+M29^2) ΔN ~ =M28-B28 The ratio between the two should

be above 3.

Data Analysis (Cont.)

Conclusion & Evaluation Final value of 14: very much suggests that high

sunspot activity is linked with low cosmic ray detections.

In order to obtain more

reliable results

(reducing variables):Different time of yearDifferent detectorCollect weather data

Final Conclusion

Detector 501 = a statistical difference above 3 (more muons detected at solar minimum)

Detector 13 = a statistical difference of 1.9 (more muons detected at solar minimum)

Detector 502 = a statistical difference of 1.4 (more muons detected at solar minimum)

Conclusion continued…- Detector 8103 = a statistical difference

of 14 (more muons detected at solar minimum)

- If the ratio of the difference in the averages to the combined standard deviation is above 3, this shows a significant statistical difference.