Market Outlook 270712

7/31/2019 Market Outlook 270712

1/24

Market Outlook July 27, 2012

www.angelbroking.com


Dealers Diary The Indian markets are expected to open in green taking cues from positiveopening in the Asia markets, matching sharp gains on Wall Street overnight asinvestors cheered an apparent pledge from the ECB to keep the euro zone intact.US markets closed mostly higher on Thursday lifting the Dow Jones Industrial

Average to its best day of the month and into positive terrain for the week, after theECB signaled its intention to preserve the euro. The ECB leader suggested thatpolicy makers could step into bond markets as rising yields in Spain and Italy threatened to unravel the 17-nation euro zone. Relatively upbeat U.S. economicdata also generated some buying interest as weekly jobless claims came in at353,000 from 388,000 earlier and durable goods order for June rose by 1.6%from 1.1% earlier.Meanwhile, Indian shares fell sharply in the yesterdays trading session, asconcerns prevailed regarding deficient monsoon rains and apprehensions that thegovernment will hold off on fuel subsidy and retail reforms.

Markets Today

The trend deciding level for the day is 16,713 / 5,067 levels. If NIFTY trades abovethis level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally up to 16,827 17,014 / 5,102 5,161 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below16,713 / 5,067 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to16,526 16,411 / 5,008 4,973 levels.

SENSEX 16,411 16,526 16,713 16,827 17,014

NIFTY 4,973 5,008 5,067 5,102 5,161

News Analysis Supreme Court cancels 5 companies mining leases in Jharkhand Gujarat high court directs all existing and new four-wheelers in state to be

converted to CNG Reliance, BP lower capex guidance for MA oilfield SBI successfully raises US$1.25bn Ashok Leyland wins Bangladesh order to supply buses Bosch to temporarily suspend manufacturing operations at its plants 1QFY2013 Result Reviews ITC, BHEL, Sterlite Industries, Ambuja Cements,

ACC, JSW Steel, Thermax, MCX, Gujarat Gas, Jagran, Bajaj Electricals, JK Lakshmi Cement

1QFY2013 Result Previews NTPC, ICICI Bank, Nestle, MSIL, PNB, Bank ofIndia, Union Bank, Central Bank, Dena Bank, IRB Infra, CESC, TVS Motor,HCC

Refer detailed news analysis on the following page Net Inflows (July 25, 2012)

FII 1,771 2,020 (249) 5,465 51,459

MFs 485 453 31 (2,194) (8,039)

FII Derivatives (July 26, 2012)

Index Futures 3,958 4,400 (442) 11,112

Stock Futures 6,432 6,511 (79) 22,428

Gainers / Losers

Sun TV Network 297 4.1 Pipavav Defence 62 (20.0)

Jet Air India 339 3.7 IOB 72 (10.8)

IVRCL Ltd 44 3.4 Reliance Power 89 (6.4)

Ambuja Cements 179 3.1 JSW Energy 49 (6.4)

Sun Pharma 624 2.3 Pantaloon Retail 157 (6.3)

BSE Sensex (1.2) (206.2) 16,640

Nifty (1.3) (66.6) 5,043

MID CAP (2.1) (125.4) 5,941SMALL CAP (2.1) (135.8) 6,420

BSE HC (0.2) (12.3) 6,983

BSE PSU (1.7) (120.0) 6,968

BANKEX (1.7) (197.4) 11,587

AUTO (0.9) (82.2) 8,792

METAL (1.5) (146.4) 9,985

OIL & GAS (1.5) (117.2) 7,852

BSE IT (1.5) (79.1) 5,158

Dow Jones 1.7 211.9 12,888NASDAQ 1.4 39.0 2,893

FTSE 1.4 74.8 5,573

Nikkei 0.9 77.2 8,443

Hang Seng 0.1 15.5 18,893

Straits Times 0.5 13.7 3,005

Shanghai Com (0.5) (10.2) 2,126

INFY 1.3 0.5 $38.7

WIT (0.3) (0.0) $7.7IBN 3.1 1.0 $33.9

HDB 1.2 0.4 $33.5

Advances 774 288

Declines 2,010 114

Unchanged 112 4

BSE 2,175

NSE 13,041


2/24


3/24



Reliance, BP lower capex guidance for MA oilfield

Reliance Industries (RIL) and it's partner BP have lowered capex guidance for MA field from US$2,234mn to US$1,960mn. During CY2006, RIL had proposed toinvest US$2,234mn to develop MA oilfield. We do not expect significant impact of

this on RIL's financials. Hence,

SBI successfully raises US$1.25bn

State Bank of India (SBI) has successfully raised US $1.25bn from a five yearoverseas bond sale at a spread of 375bp over the US treasury. The issue wasoversubscribed by 5.2times, aiding the bank to limit the spread over US treasuriesto just 375bp, 25bp lower than its earlier estimate of 400bp. As per lead bankersto the bond sale, effective coupon rate works out at 4.125% payable half yearly,thereby making the issue - cheapest five-year offering by a domestic company tilldate. The bank has a board mandate to raise US $10bn from overseas over thenext few years.

Ashok Leyland wins Bangladesh order to supply buses

Ashok Leyland has won an order to supply 88 AC buses to Bangladesh RoadTransport Corporation (BRTC). According to the company, the order is worthUS$6.5mn and is likely to be completed in FY2013. Earlier, Ashok Leyland had

won an order to supply 50 Vestibule buses to BRTC which is also scheduled to bedelivered in FY2013. The company saw its exports volume jump by 25% inFY2012 backed by strong demand for its products in Asia (markets likeBangladesh and Sri Lanka), Middle East and Africa. Ashok Leyland is targetingexport volume growth of 15-18% in FY2013. At the CMP of ` 21, the stock istrading at attractive levels of 7.8x FY2014 earnings.

Bosch to temporarily suspend manufacturing operations atits plants

In a view to avoid unnecessary buildup of inventory at its plants and align theproduction as per the market demand, Bosch (BOS) has announced that it willsuspend the manufacturing operations at the Bangalore (July 27 to July 30, 2012)and Nashik plant (July 30 to July 31, 2012). The domestic automobile industry which is the primary driver of companys revenue, have witnessed a slowdown indemand recently due to sluggish economic growth, increasing fuel prices andweak consumer sentiments. The company had earlier announced temporary shutdown at its Jaipur (from June 28 to June 30, 2012 and July 25 to August 4,2012) and Bangalore (from June 29 to June 30, 2012 and from July 13 to July 14, 2012) plants, citing similar reasons. At the CMP of ` 8,660, the stock is trading

at 18.8x CY2013E earnings.


4/24



Result Reviews

ITC (CMP: ` 249 / TP: - / Upside: -)

ITC posted a healthy 15.3% yoy growth in its net sales to ` 6,652cr. The cigarettesdivision posted a 15% yoy growth in its net sales to ` 3,304cr, primarily due toprice hikes taken by the company. The net sales of other FMCG business grew by 33% yoy to ` 1,473cr. The revenue of agri and hotel businesses stood flat on yoy basis at ` 1,691cr and ` 232cr respectively. OPM for the quarter stood at 34.7%.The operating profit (EBIT) of cigarette division stood at ` 1,900cr, up 20.5% on yoy basis. Operating losses of other FMCG business stood at ` 39cr, although down onyoy basis (loss of ` 76cr in 1QFY2012) rose on a sequential basis (loss of ` 17cr in4QFY2012), which was a disappointment. Bottom-line rose by 20.2% yoy to

` 1,602cr.

FY2013E 29,588 35.4 7,273 9.3 35.1 26.8 8.6 17.8 6.3

FY2014E 34,063 35.8 8,476 10.8 33.7 23.0 7.0 15.2 5.5

BHEL (CMP: ` 216 / TP: - / Upside: -)

BHEL reported better than expected revenue for the quarter at ` 8,439cr (16.1%yoy), beating our expectations by 8.5% , however disappointed on the marginsfront with EBITDA margin coming in at 14.2% (down 106bps yoy) against ourexpectation of 15%. Owing to lower than expected interest cost, PAT came in

higher than expected at ` 921cr (12.8% yoy). Backlog for the quarter stood at ` 132,900cr (down 16.7% yoy) and slightly lower on qoq basis. The managementexpects order inflow during FY2013E to the tune of ~ ` 60,000cr compared to

` 22,000cr achieved in FY2012, which remains optimistic in our view. Order inflowfor 1QFY2013 stood at ` 5,500cr. The management noted that there are currently no slow moving orders. Owing to weak order flow outlook and intense competition(domestic as well as foreign) in the sector we remain cautious of BHEL, in spite ofthe strong order backlog (~2.7x FY2012A revenues).

FY2013E 47,801 19.4 6,295.1 25.7 22.7 8.4 1.8 5.3 1.0

FY2014E 43,757 19.8 5855 23.9 18.3 9.0 1.6 4.3 0.9

Sterlite Industries (CMP: ` 98 / TP: ` 115 / Upside: 17%)

Sterlite Industries (Sterlite) 1QFY2013 results were slightly above our expectations.Net sales increased 7.8% yoy to ` 10,591cr marginally above our estimate of

` 10,440cr. Net sales growth was driven by increases in copper segment andpower segment. Copper and Power segment revenues grew 13.8% and 42.3% yoy

to `

5,125cr and `

875cr, respectively. On the operating front, Sterlites EBITDA decreased by 16.3% yoy to ` 2,308cr and EBITDA margins stood at 21.8% (belowour estimate of 24.2%) mainly due decline in profitability from zinc and aluminiumsegments. Tax rate stood at 14.7% in 1QFY2013, compared to 20.4% in


5/24



1QFY2012. The company reported a forex loss of ` 217cr in 1QFY2013 (Nil in1QFY2012). Hence, adjusted net profit decreased 13.7% yoy to ` 1,419cr,which was above our estimate of ` 1,279cr. Reported net profit decreased 26.7%yoy to ` 1,202cr.

FY2013E 44,810 26.6 5,999 17.8 12.3 5.5 0.6 2.7 0.7

FY2014E 47,374 26.0 6,143 18.3 11.4 5.4 0.6 2.5 0.6

Ambuja Cements (CMP: ` 179 / TP: - / Upside: -)

Ambuja Cements standalone topline grew by 17.9% yoy to ` 2,566cr aided by a7.3% growth in dispatches and 10.0% growth in realization. The companys OPMrose by 116bp yoy to 28.5% aided by higher realization. The company facedmargin pressures during the quarter due to the increasing in operating costs. Thecompanys per tonne operating costs was higher by 8% on yoy basis. Bottom-linerose by 35% yoy to ` 469cr.

CY2012E 10,116 24.6 1,662 10.8 19.7 16.6 3.4 9.5 157

CY2013E 11,550 24.2 1,846 12.0 19.8 14.9 3.1 8.0Note: *computed on TTM basis

ACC (CMP: ` 1,261 / TP: - / Upside: -) ACCs standalone topline rose by 15.6% yoy to ` 2,778cr, aided by a strong 13.3%yoy growth in realization. The strong improvement in realization was to a largeextent offset by increase in operating costs resulting in a marginal 60bp yoy improvement in OPM to 24.5%. The companys per tonne operating costs washigher by 12.5% on yoy basis. Bottom-line rose by 24% yoy to ` 418cr.

CY2012E 10,875 21.0 1,430 76.1 19.3 16.6 3.1 9.0 121

CY2013E 12,385 21.7 1,559 82.9 19.3 15.2 2.8 7.3Note: *computed on TTM basis

JSW Steel (CMP: ` 645 / TP: - / Upside: -)

JSW Steels stand-alone top line was lower than expectation however bottom-linewas better than our expectation. Its net sales grew by 27.8% yoy to ` 9,030cr(below our estimate of ` 9,438cr). Net sales growth was driven by increases in steelvolumes (+23.0% yoy). The companys EBITDA also increased 27.2% yoy to

` 1,773cr in line with increase in net sales however EBITDA margin slipped by

10bp yoy to 19.6% on account of rise in prices of raw materials. The company reported exceptional item related to forex loss of ` 592cr during the quarter.Interest expenses grew by 106.8% yoy to ` 407cr. Hence, adjusted net profitincreased by 48.9% yoy to ` 861cr (higher than our estimate of ` 642cr). Reported


6/24



PAT, however, declined 53.5% yoy to ` 269cr.

JSW Steels associate JSW Ispat (49% stake) reported its 1QFY2013 results. JSW Ispats net sales grew by 18.4% yoy to ` 2,855cr in 1QFY2013. Its EBITDA grew by

35.7% yoy to `

342cr mainly due to increase in sales and decrease in costs as apercentage of sales. At the PAT level the company reported a profit of ` 478cr,compared to a PAT loss of ` 1,135cr in 1QFY2012 because of tax credit. Therewas an exceptional loss of ` 338cr in this quarter.

FY2013E 40,337 17.7 574 23.9 3.5 27.0 1.1 5.2 0.9

FY2014E 43,603 17.5 924 38.2 5.4 16.9 1.1 5.1 0.9

Thermax (CMP: ` 503 / TP: - / Upside: -)

Thermax reported lower than expected results with revenue coming in at ` 983cr(down 5.8% yoy) against our expectation of ` 1,055cr, EBITDA margin was lowerby 108bps at 9.8% in line with expectation. PAT came in at ` 67cr declining 15.9%yoy and below our by 7.1%. Exports grew 10% to ` 222cr. On a consolidated basisRevenue/PBT/PAT for 1QFY2013 came in at ` 1170cr/ ` 80cr/ ` 52cr down from

` 1240cr/ ` 124cr/ ` 86cr during 1QFY2012. Thermaxs consolidated level orderbook stands at ` 5,042cr (down 26.5% yoy) during the quarter. There is a concallscheduled in the evening with the company management, post which we will comewith a detailed result update.

FY2013E 5,514 9.8 523 29.7 20.2 17.0 3.2 10.4 0.9

FY2014E 5,559 9.6 501 28.4 16.9 17.7 2.8 10.1 0.8

MCX (CMP: ` 1,069 / TP: ` 1,598 / Upside: 49%)

Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) came out with its 1QFY2013 numbers. Totalrevenue grew by 5.2% yoy to ` 123cr. Volumes were up 39.9% yoy at 9.8crcontracts traded during the quarter but the total turnover was up only 8.4% on

back decline in commodity prices during the quarter as well strike by jewellers inthe month of April. Operating profit increased by 5.4% yoy to ` 76cr ( ` 72cr) in-linewith top-line growth.OPM expanded by 10bp to 61.5% (61.4%). PAT came in at

` 65cr up 4.4% yoy due to increase in Tax rate. Tax rate for the quarter stood at29.7% up 113bp yoy.

FY2013E 610 65.5 344 67.8 29.1 15.8 4.6 9.1 6.0

FY2014E 702 67.0 406 79.9 28.9 13.4 3.9 7.0 4.7


7/24



Gujarat Gas (CMP: ` 307 / TP: - / Upside: -)

Gujarat gas reported 2QCY2012 results (we will resume coverage on Gujarat Gaswith 2QCY2012 result update). The companys net sales grew by 31.9% to ` 772crdue to increase in realizations (+38.8% yoy to ` 26.5/scm). However, total volume

of gas sold declined to 289mmscm compared to 304mmscm in 1QCY2012.Hence, EBITDA fell by 40.7% to ` 83cr. EBITDA margin contracted by 1,320bp yoy to 10.8% mainly due higher raw material costs. The other income fell by 42.5%yoy to ` 8cr. Hence, the companys reported PAT decreased by 44.8% yoy to ` 53cr.

CY2012E 3,279 13.0 279 21.8 32.7 14.1 4.3 8.1 2.8

CY2013E 3,878 12.8 320 25.0 32.2 12.3 3.7 6.8 2.4

Jagran (CMP: ` 89 / TP: Under review / Upside: -)

Jagran reported its 1QFY2013 results. Top-line grew by 4.4% yoy to 311cr. Onthe operating front, OPM declined by 474bp yoy to 20.1% mainly on account of326bp yoy increase in newsprint cost. Though newsprint cost remained flat yoy inUSD terms, newsprint prices went up due to ~20% yoy depreciation in INR v/sUSD. In past few quarters, the company is experiencing margin pressure due tosluggish ad revenue growth on account of slowdown in GDP growth and increasein newsprint costs in INR terms due to depreciating rupee. OPM has remained flatqoq. The company reported 12.1% yoy growth in Net Profit to ` 55cr.

FY2013E 1,520 22.6 194 6.1 20.7 14.4 1.9 9.2 2.1

FY2014E 1,698 23.1 204 6.4 23.9 13.7 1.8 7.9 1.8

Bajaj Electricals (CMP: ` 173 / TP: ` 245 / Upside: 42%)

Bajaj Electricals (BEL) posted strong top-line growth of 22.4% yoy to ` 666cr in1QFY2013. Their lighting segment witnessed 19.6% yoy growth in revenue to

` 152cr (

` 127cr), while their consumer durable segment grew strongly by 28.8%yoy growth in revenue to ` 390cr ( ` 303cr). Their Engineering and projects (E&P)

segment witnessed an increase of 8.4% yoy in revenue to ` 123cr ( ` 114cr).Operating profit increased by 14.7% yoy to ` 35cr ( ` 30cr) largely due to highertop-line which was somewhat offset by margin compression. OPM fell by 35bp to5.2% (5.5%). Lighting segment witnessed a 98bp yoy decline in EBIT margin to4.8% while their consumer durable segment witnessed 123bp yoy contraction to8.4%. Their E&P segment reported an EBIT loss of ` 7cr, consequently bringingdown margins for the whole company. PAT came in at ` 12cr up 8.4% yoy.


8/24



FY2013E 307 8.6 172 17.3 22.9 10.0 2.1 5.7 0.5

FY2014E 384 9.2 221 22.3 25.3 7.7 1.8 4.6 0.4

JK Lakshmi Cement (CMP: ` 85 / TP: - / Upside: -)

JK Lakshmi Cement posted a strong 34.3% yoy growth in top-line to ` 553cr due toa 23.3% growth in sale volumes and 10% improvement in realization. OPM roseby a healthy 290bp yoy to 22.8%. The companys cost per tonne rose by 5% yoy due to higher raw material and freight costs. Bottomline rose by 121% yoy to

` 50cr.

FY2013E 1,938 19.1 165 15.2 13.8 5.6 0.8 3.2 37FY2014E 2,246 20.1 182 16.8 14.0 5.1 0.7 4.8Note: *computed on TTM basis

Result Previews

NTPC (CMP: ` 152 / TP: ` 158 / Upside: -)

For 1QFY2013, we expect NTPC to record a 17.0% yoy increase in its top line to ` 16,584cr, driven by higher generation and better PAF. The company's OPM isexpected to increase by 477bp yoy to 25.0%. Consequently, Net profit is expected

to increase by 20.7% yoy to ` 2,507cr.

FY2013E 74,766 23.1 10,249 12.4 13.0 12.2 1.5 10.3 2.4

FY2014E 86,549 23.4 11,607 14.1 13.5 10.8 1.4 9.4 2.2

ICICI Bank (CMP: ` 907 / TP: ` 1,169 / Upside: 29%)

ICICI Bank is slated to announce its 1QFY2013 results today. We expect the bankto report a strong Net Interest Income (NII) growth of 28% yoy to ` 3,085cr. Non-

interest income growth is expected to be healthy at 24.5% yoy to ` 2,046cr.Operating expenses of the bank are expected to be higher by 16% yoy. However,Net Profit is expected to go up by 32% yoy to ` 1,759cr, on account of relatively lower increase in provisioning expenses (expected to be up by 22.8% yoy). At theCMP, the stock is trading at attractive valuations of 1.5x FY2014E ABV (withoutadjusting value of subsidiaries).

FY2013E 22,368 2.8 7,864 68.2 568.2 1.4 14.2 13.5 1.6

FY2014E 26,857 2.9 9,263 80.4 620.1 1.4 15.4 11.4 1.5


9/24



Nestle (CMP: ` 4,436 / TP: - / Upside: -)

For 1QFY2013, we expect Nestle to post a 13.1% yoy increase in its top line to ` 2047cr. The company's OPM is expected to increase by 104bp yoy to 22.3% onaccount of moderation in input costs. Consequently, Net profit is expected to

increase by 7.8% yoy to `

276cr.

FY2013E 8,731 21.0 1,103114.4 71.1 38.7 23.3 23.6 4.9

FY2014E 10,539 21.4 1,379143.0 61.4 31.0 16.0 18.9 4.0

Maruti Suzuki (CMP: ` 1,108 / TP: ` 1,364 / Upside: 23%)

Maruti Suzuki (MSIL) is scheduled to announce its 1QFY2013 results on July 28,2012. We expect the company to report a healthy 13% yoy growth in its top-line to

` 9,432cr driven by 8% and 5% yoy growth in net average realization and volumes,respectively. The volume growth during the quarter was led by 5% and 5.8% yoy growth in the domestic and exports segments, respectively. Domestic growth wasled by the new launches, Swift, Dzire and Ertiga and also due to additionalavailability of diesel engines from Fiat. However, volume growth in the Minisegment continues to remain lackluster as the segment lacks diesel models whichare in great demand currently. On the operating front, EBITDA margin is expectedto decline 160bp yoy to 7.9% mainly due to appreciation in Yen vs INR and alsoon account of cost pressures. As a result, the bottom line is expected to decline by ~14% yoy to ` 474cr. At the CMP of ` 1,108, the stock is trading at 12.2x FY2014earnings.

FY2013E 39,959 6.0 2,062 71.4 12.8 15.5 1.9 9.9 0.5

FY2014E 46,670 7.0 2,628 90.9 14.4 12.2 1.6 7.3 0.4

PNB (CMP: ` 756 / TP: ` 1,050 / Upside: 39%)

Punjab National Bank is scheduled to announce its 1QFY2013 results today. We

expect the bank to report a moderate NII growth of 10.3% yoy to `

3,435cr. Theoperating profit of the bank is expected to grow at a muted pace of 5.2% yoy to ` 2,603cr. The Net Profit growth is expected to be subdued at 6.3% on a yoy basisto ` 1,174cr. At the CMP, the stock is trading at 0.8x FY2014E ABV.

FY2013E 20,142 3.2 5,198 153.3 848.0 1.0 18.3 5.3 0.9

FY2014E 23,929 3.3 5,910 174.31,000.4 1.0 18.0 4.6 0.8


10/24



Bank of India (CMP: ` 353 / TP: ` 388 / Upside: 10%)

Bank of India is scheduled to announce its 1QFY2013 results today. We expect thebank to report a strong growth of 31% yoy in its net interest income to ` 2,411cr.Even, on the non-interest income front the bank is expected to report a growth of

27.4% yoy to `

841cr, leading to a strong operating income growth of 30% yoy to ` 3,252cr. Operating expenses are expected to be higher by 20.8% yoy to ` 1,335cr, provisioning expenses are expected to rise by a substantial 33.6% yoy to ` 758cr. Net profit is expected to grow strongly by 51.3% yoy to ` 783cr. At theCMP, the stock is trading at 0.7x FY2014E ABV.

FY2013E 13,657 2.5 3,419 59.5 373.2 0.8 16.2 5.4 0.9

FY2014E 15,902 2.6 4,057 70.6 431.4 0.8 16.9 4.5 0.7

Union Bank (CMP: ` 178 / TP: ` 256 / Upside: 43.7%)

Union Bank is scheduled to announce its 1QFY2013 results today. We expect thebank to report a healthy 20.2% yoy growth in Net Interest Income (NII) to

`1 ,911cr. Non-interest income is expected to grow by a subdued 11.2% yoy to ` 538cr. Operating expenses are expected to increase by 18.6% yoy to ` 1,078cr.Provisioning expenses are also expected to be higher by 37.3% yoy at ` 588cr.Consequently, Net profit growth is expected to go up by 14.0% yoy to ` 529cr. Atthe CMP, the stock is trading at 0.6x FY2014E ABV.

FY2013E 10,623 3.0 2,351 42.5 254.1 0.8 16.8 4.4 0.7

FY2014E 12,404 2.9 2,741 49.6 301.0 0.8 17.2 3.8 0.6

Central Bank - (CMP: ` 73 / TP: - / Upside: -)

Central Bank is scheduled to announce its 1QFY2013 results today. We expect thebank to report a decline in NII of 1.3% yoy to ` 1,313cr. Non-interest income is

expected to be subdued at `

298cr (up 5.8% yoy). Although operating expenses areexpected to increase by 12.7% yoy to ` 925cr we expect provisioning expenses tocome in lower by 2.7% yoy at ` 382cr. However, the net PAT is expected toeventually decline by 26.9% yoy to ` 205cr. At the CMP, the stock is trading at 0.7xFY2014E ABV.

FY2013E 7,001 2.5 1,180 14.0 94.7 0.4 11.0 5.3 0.8

FY2014E 8,211 2.6 1,664 20.6 107.4 0.6 14.5 3.6 0.7


11/24



Dena Bank (CMP: ` 91 / TP: ` 106 / Upside: 16.4%)

Dena Bank is scheduled to announce its 1QFY2013 results today. We expect thebank to report a healthy 36.4% yoy growth in Net Interest Income (NII) to ` 609cr.Non-interest income however is expected to grow by relatively lower 11.6% yoy to

` 139cr. Provisioning expenses are expected to more than double on a yoy basis to ` 172cr ( ` 65cr in 1QFY2012). Consequently, Net profit growth is expected to be

moderate at 7.0% to ` 180cr. At the CMP, the stock is trading at 0.6x FY2014E ABV.

FY2013E 3,170 2.9 797 22.8 141.9 0.9 17.2 4.2 0.7FY2014E 3,577 2.9 886 25.3 163.1 0.9 16.6 3.8 0.6

IRB Infra (CMP: ` 116 / TP: ` 166 / Upside: 43%)

IRB is expected to post a mixed performance on a quarterly basis. We expectmodest 5.8% yoy growth in the E&C segment to ` 604cr, as Surat Dahisar andKolhapur road projects are complete and, hence, will not be contributing to E&Crevenue. However, the BOT segment is expected to report healthy 15.1% yoy growth to ` 265cr, leading to overall top-line growth of 8.4% to ` 869cr. We expectblended EBITDA margin at 42.5%, an improvement of 140bp yoy. This is on theback of low base in 1QFY2012. Depreciation for the quarter is expected to witnessa yoy jump of 70.4%, owing to completion of Surat Dahisar project. We project netprofit before tax and after tax (post minority interest) at ` 147cr and ` 111cr,respectively, after factoring a blended tax rate of 26.7% for the quarter.

FY2013E 3,821 42.3 498 15.0 16.1 7.8 1.2 6.2 2.6FY2014E 4,582 40.2 563 16.9 15.8 6.9 1.0 6.0 2.4

CESC (CMP: ` 285 / TP: ` 342 / Upside: 20%)

For 1QFY2013, CESC is expected to register 13.7% yoy growth in its standalonetop line to ` 1,330cr, aided by better realization. During 4QFY2012, CESC got theapproval from WBERC for increasing the tariff for Kolkata on an average by 13%,which is expected to result in better realization. The company's OPM is expected toexpand by 136bp yoy to 24.2%. Net profit of the company is expected toincrease by 45.6% yoy to ` 162cr.

FY2013E 5,084 24.2 568 45.2 11.2 6.3 0.7 4.7 1.1

FY2014E 5,512 23.8 610 48.5 10.9 5.9 0.6 4.4 1.0


12/24



TVS Motor (CMP: ` 38 / TP: ` 42 / Upside: 11%)

TVS Motor is scheduled to announce its 1QFY2013 results today. We expect thecompany to report ~10% yoy decline in its top-line to ` 1,560cr largely due to~3% and ~6% yoy decline in revenue and net average realization, respectively.

Volumes declined during the quarter as the motorcycle and scooter segmentsvolume declined by 10.1% and 4% yoy, respectively, amidst rising competition andmoderating demand environment. EBITDA margin is expected to contract ~85bpyoy to 5.9% led by inferior product-mix and lower operating leverage benefits. Asa result, bottom line is expected to decline 24% yoy to ` 45cr. At the CMP of ` 38,the stock is trading at 7.2x FY2014E earnings.

42.

FY2013E 7,442 6.2 226 4.8 18.2 7.9 1.4 3.3 0.2

FY2014E 8,198 6.1 249 5.2 17.9 7.2 1.2 2.8 0.2

HCC (CMP: ` 17 / TP: - / Upside: -)

For Hindustan Construction Company (HCC), we project an 8.0% yoy decline inrevenue for 1QFY2013 to ` 973cr due to slowdown in execution on account ofgloomy macro environment. On the EBITDA front, we expect a dip of 244bp yoy to10.6% on the back of muted margin performance in the past few quarters. On thebottom-line front, we expect loss of ` 61cr against profit of ` 3cr in 1QFY2012 dueto poor show expected on the revenue and margin fronts and owing to escalatinginterest cost, which is expected to post a yoy jump of 66.7%.

FY2013E 4,239 11.1 (102) (1.7) (8.4) - 0.9 10.3 1.1

FY2014E 4,522 11.7 (41) (0.7) (3.8) - 1.0 9.8 1.1

Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers Consensus Estimate

Net profit 798 518 54 251 218

Net sales 6,459 6,390 1 7,206 (10)

EBITDA 1,487 1,650 (10) 1,610 (8)

EBITDA margin (%) 23.0 25.8 22.3

Net profit 688 1,146 (40) 1,156 (40)

Net profit 1,761 1,332 32 2,371 (26)


13/24



Net sales 2,066 1,763 17 2,047 1

EBITDA 419 349 20 466 (10)

EBITDA margin (%) 20.3 19.8 22.8

Net profit 258 214 21 276 (7)

Net sales 16,188 14,171 14 16,264 (0)

EBITDA 3,748 3,219 16 4,881 (23)

EBITDA margin (%) 23.2 22.7 30.0

Net profit 2,344 2,076 13 2,593 (10)

Net profit 1,267 1,105 15 1,424 (11)

Net profit 764 662 15 763 0

Net profit 598 464 29 773 (23)

Net sales 2,220 1,935 15 1,863 19

EBITDA 296 339 (13) 191 55

EBITDA margin (%) 13.3 17.5 10.3

Net profit 89 138 (36) 8 1013

Net sales 10,007 8,361 20 11,525 (13)

EBITDA 777 814 (5) 729 7

EBITDA margin (%) 7.8 9.7 6.3

Net profit 487 549 (11) 640 (24)

Net profit 1,147 1,033 11 1,518 (24)


14/24



Net sales 11,188 8,867 26 10,455 7

EBITDA 1,507 1,577 (4) 998 51

EBITDA margin (%) 13.5 17.8 9.5

Net profit 894 985 (9) 483 85

Economic and Political News

EGoM to meet next week to review monsoon situation Trai extends deadline for comments on mobile Internet norms Monsoon rains 20% below average in past week

Corporate News Government may ask Coal India to import coal for power companies HCL Infosystems buys Edurix to boost learning biz Mahindra launches new Verito, price starts at ` 5.27lakh S&P lowers outlook of Tata Steel, UK unit to negative Tata Steel set to merge Tata Sponge and Tinplate Venus gets US patent for antibiotic product

Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint


15/24

Date Company

July 27, 2012NTPC, ICICI Bank, Nestle, Punjab Natl.Bank, Grasim Inds, Bank of India, Rural Elec.Corp., Union Bank, United Spirits,Central Bank, IRB Infra, Areva, CESC, TVS Motor, Dena Bank, Hind. Const., Siyaram Silk Mills

July 28, 2012 HDFC, Maruti, Indraprasth Gas, Sarda Energy, Vesuvius India, Force Motors

July 30, 2012GAIL, Bank of Baroda, Oriental Bank, Allahabad Bank, IOB, Corporation Bank, Syndicate Bank, Sadbhav Engg.,SpiceJet, Jyoti Structures, Indoco Remedies, JK Tyre, Subros

July 31, 2012 Cipla, Titan Inds., Jaiprakash Asso., Petronet LNG, IDBI Bank, Bhushan Steel, Ipca labs, Hexaware, KEC International,Dishman Pharma August 01, 2012 Mundra Port, Adani Power, Federal Bank, PVR, CEAT

August 02, 2012 Cummins India, Mahindra Satyam, Glenmark Pharma., Madras Cements

August 03, 2012 Sun TV Network, Marico, United Bank, BGR Energy , Graphite India, Abbott India

August 04, 2012 Godrej Consumer, Divi's Lab., UCO Bank, Prakash Industries

August 06, 2012 SAIL, Cadila Healthcare, Andhra Bank, Britannia, LMW, PTC India

August 07, 2012 Tata Chemicals, Aurobindo Pharma, Punj Lloyd

August 08, 2012 Bharti Airtel, M&M, Tata Power Co., Power Fin.Corpn., ABB, Goodyear, HEG

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Result Calendar

Global economic events release calendar

Date Country Event Description Unit Period Bloomberg Data

Last Reported Estimated

July 27, 2012 US GDP Qoq (Annualised) % Change 2Q A 1.90 1.40

July 30, 2012 Euro Zone Euro-Zone ConsumerConfidence Value Jul F (21.60) (21.60)

July 31, 2012 US Consumer Confidence S.A./1985=100 Jul 62.00 61.50

Germany Unemployment change (000's) Thousands Jul 7.00 5.00

India RBI Repo rate % Jul 31 8.00 8.00

India RBI Cash Reserve ratio % Jul 31 4.75 4.75

India RBI Reverse Repo rate % Jul 31 7.00 7.00

August 01, 2012 Germany PMI Manufacturing Value Jul F 43.30 43.30

India Imports YoY% % Change Jun (7.36) --

India Exports YoY% % Change Jun (4.16) --

UK PMI Manufacturing Value Jul 48.60 49.00

China PMI Manufacturing Value Jul 50.20 50.30

US FOMC rate decision % Aug 1 0.25 0.25

August 02, 2012 UK BOE Announces rates % Ratio Aug 2 0.50 0.50

Euro Zone ECB announces interest rates % Aug 2 0.75 0.75

August 03, 2012 Germany PMI Services Value Jul F 49.70 49.70

US Change in Nonfarm payrolls Thousands Jul 80.00 100.00

US Unnemployment rate % Jul 8.20 8.20

August 07, 2012 UK Industrial Production (YoY) % Change Jun (1.60) --

August 09, 2012 China Industrial Production (YoY) % Change Jul 9.50 --

China Consumer Price Index (YoY) % Change Jul 2.20 --

August 10, 2012 India Industrial Production YoY % Change Jun 2.40 --

China Exports YoY% % Change Jul 11.30 --



July 27, 2012

Market Outlook


16/24

Market StrategyJuly 27, 2012


Macro watch

Exhibit 1 : Q uarterly G D P trends

5. 9

7 .5

9. 8

7. 4

9 .4

8. 5

7. 68. 2

9. 2

8. 0

6. 76. 1

5. 3

3. 0

4. 0

5. 0

6. 0

7. 0

8. 0

9. 0

10.0

4 Q F Y 0 9

1 Q F Y 1 0

2 Q F Y 1 0

3 Q F Y 1 0

4 Q F Y 1 0

1 Q F Y 1 1

2 Q F Y 1 1

3 Q F Y 1 1

4 Q F Y 1 1

1 Q F Y 1 2

2 Q F Y 1 2

3 Q F Y 1 2

4 Q F Y 1 2

(%)

Source: CSO, Ang el Research

Exhibit 2 : IIP trends

9 .5

3. 7 3. 42. 5

(5.0)

6 .0

2. 7

1. 0

4. 3

(3.2)

(0.9)

2. 4

(6.0)

(4.0)

(2.0)

-

2. 0

4. 0

6. 0

8. 0

10.0

12.0

J u n - 1

1

J u l - 1 1

A u g - 1

1

S e p - 1

1

O c t - 1 1

N o v - 1

1

D e c - 1

1

J a n - 1

2

F e b

- 1 2

M a r - 1 2

A p r - 1 2

M a y - 1

2

(%)

Source: M O SPI, Ang el Research

Exhibit 3 : M onthly WPI inflation trends

9. 4 9. 810.0 9. 9 9. 5

7. 76. 9 7. 4

7. 7 7. 5 7. 6 7. 3

0. 0

2. 0

4. 0

6. 0

8. 0

10.0

12.0

J u l - 1 1

A u g - 1

1

S e p - 1

1

O c t - 1 1

N o v - 1

1

D e c - 1

1

J a n - 1

2

F e b

- 1 2

M a r - 1 2

A p r - 1 2

M a y - 1

2

J u n - 1

2

(%)

Source: M O SPI, Ang el Research

Exhibit 4 : M a nufacturing a nd services PM I

48.0

50.0

52.0

54.0

56.0

58.0

60.0

J u n - 1

1

J u l - 1 1

A u g - 1

1

S e p - 1

1

O c t - 1 1

N o v - 1

1

D e c - 1

1

J a n - 1

2

F e b

- 1 2

M a r - 1 2

A p r - 1 2

M a y - 1

2

J u n - 1

2

M fg. PM I Services PM I

Source: Ma rket, Angel Research; N ote: Level above 50 indicates expansion

Exhibit 5 : Expo rts an d impo rts growth trends

(15.0)

0. 0

15.0

30.0

45.0

60.0

75.0

J u n - 1

1

J u l - 1 1

A u g - 1

1

S e p - 1

1

O c t - 1 1

N o v - 1

1

D e c - 1

1

J a n - 1

2

F e b

- 1 2

M a r - 1 2

A p r - 1 2

M a y - 1

2

Expo rts yo y g ro wth Im ports yo y growth( %)


Exhibit 6 : Key policy rates

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

J u l - 1 1

A u g - 1

1

S e p - 1

1

O c t - 1 1

N o v - 1

1

D e c - 1

1

J a n - 1

2

F e b

- 1 2

M a r - 1 2

A p r - 1 2

M a y - 1 2

J u n - 1

2

J u l - 1 2

Repo rate Reverse Repo rate C RR(%)

Source: RBI, Angel Research


17/24

Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS ( ) PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E

Agri / Agri Chemical

Rallis Neutral 121 - 2,345 1,432 1,647 14.7 14.7 7.0 8.0 17.2 15.1 3.6 3.1 22.8 22.3 1.6 1.4

United Phosphorus Buy 120 183 5,536 8,191 8,764 16.5 16.5 17.1 18.3 7.0 6.6 1.1 1.0 17.5 16.2 0.8 0.7

Auto & Auto Ancillary

Amara Raja Batteries Buy 293 345 2,498 2,715 3,041 15.3 15.3 29.2 32.8 10.0 8.9 2.3 1.9 26.0 23.3 0.9 0.7

Apollo Tyres Buy 80 100 4,042 13,699 15,184 10.5 10.2 12.1 13.3 6.6 6.0 1.2 1.0 19.7 18.4 0.5 0.4 Ashok Leyland Buy 21 30 5,681 14,920 16,850 9.0 9.3 2.2 2.8 9.8 7.8 1.8 1.6 13.3 15.6 0.5 0.4

Automotive Axle Accumulate 403 430 609 993 1,140 11.6 11.5 36.9 43.0 10.9 9.4 2.2 1.9 21.2 21.3 0.7 0.5Bajaj Auto Accumulate 1,583 1,698 45,810 21,285 23,927 18.2 18.3 108.5 121.3 14.6 13.1 6.0 4.9 46.1 41.3 1.7 1.5Bharat Forge Buy 290 372 6,758 7,173 7,998 16.3 16.5 22.3 26.6 13.0 10.9 2.5 2.1 21.0 21.0 1.1 0.9

Bosch India Accumulate 8,668 9,206 27,217 9,106 10,255 19.4 19.3 410.2 460.3 21.1 18.8 4.7 3.8 22.1 20.4 2.6 2.3CEAT Buy 96 164 329 5,067 5,631 8.0 7.6 39.4 41.0 2.4 2.3 0.4 0.4 18.8 16.5 0.3 0.3

Exide Industries Accumulate 128 149 10,859 5,899 6 ,771 16.0 17.0 7.4 9.1 17.4 14.0 3.1 2.6 19.0 20.2 1.5 1.3FAG Bearings Accumulate 1,432 1,560 2,379 1,505 1,747 17.7 18.0 111.5 130.0 12.8 11.0 2.7 2.2 22.8 21.7 1.4 1.1

Hero Motocorp Buy 2,039 2,428 40,719 26,097 29,963 15.0 15.3 139.5 151.8 14.6 13.4 6.9 5.2 54.6 44.3 1.3 1.1JK Tyre Buy 90 135 368 7,950 8,904 5.5 6.0 25.1 38.6 3.6 2.3 0.4 0.4 12.1 16.4 0.3 0.3Mahindra and Mahindra Buy 682 824 41,861 35,881 40,746 10.0 10.0 47.5 53.2 14.4 12.8 2.8 2.5 21.3 20.5 0.9 0.8

Maruti Buy 1,108 1,364 32,007 39,959 46,670 6.0 7.0 71.4 90.9 15.5 12.2 1.9 1.7 12.8 14.4 0.6 0.5Motherson Sumi Buy 163 216 6,380 23,342 26,366 7.8 8.2 13.3 18.0 12.2 9.1 2.9 2.3 26.2 28.4 0.5 0.4

Subros Accumulate 29 36 175 1,244 1,402 8.4 8.3 4.5 5.1 6.5 5.7 0.6 0.6 9.9 11.0 0.4 0.3Tata Motors Buy 205 305 54,595 191,303 211,004 13.0 12.9 40.7 43.8 5.0 4.7 1.7 1.4 36.0 33.1 0.4 0.4

TVS Motor Accumulate 38 42 1,793 7,442 8,198 6.2 6.1 4.8 5.2 7.9 7.2 1.4 1.2 18.2 17.9 0.2 0.2

Capital Goods

ABB* Sell 749 498 15,875 8,760 10,023 7.6 7.5 18.2 20.7 41.1 36.1 5.5 4.9 14.4 14.6 1.8 1.5BGR Energy Neutral 275 - 1,988 4,195 4,837 11.0 11.0 30.1 32.4 9.2 8.5 1.6 1.4 18.4 17.6 1.0 1.0BHEL Neutral 212 - 51,975 47,801 43,757 19.4 19.8 25.7 23.9 8.3 8.9 1.7 1.5 22.7 18.3 1.0 0.9

Blue Star Neutral 184 - 1,658 3,047 3,328 5.4 6.9 9.6 16.2 19.2 11.4 3.8 3.1 20.7 29.7 0.6 0.5Crompton Greaves Accumulate 114 128 7,323 12,691 14,096 7.0 8.5 6.5 9.1 17.6 12.5 1.9 1.7 11.1 14.2 0.6 0.6Jyoti Structures Buy 38 67 311 2,622 2,801 10.6 11.0 10.9 13.4 3.5 2.8 0.5 0.4 13.7 14.9 0.3 0.3

KEC International Buy 55 73 1,415 6,686 7,200 8.5 8.8 10.6 12.2 5.2 4.5 1.0 0.8 25.9 24.0 0.4 0.4LMW Buy 1,592 1,992 1,794 2,369 2,727 11.7 11.7 143.4 166.0 11.1 9.6 1.9 1.7 17.4 18.4 0.3 0.2

Thermax Neutral 503 - 5,995 5,514 5,559 9.8 9.6 29.7 28.4 17.0 17.7 3.2 2.8 20.2 16.9 1.0 0.9


July 27, 2012

Market Outlook

Stock Watch


18/24



Cement

ACC Neutral 1,261 - 23,675 11,096 12,607 21.0 21.7 76.1 82.9 16.6 15.2 3.1 2.8 19.3 19.3 1.9 1.6 Ambuja Cements Neutral 179 - 27,597 10,205 11,659 24.6 24.2 10.8 12.0 16.6 14.9 3.5 3.1 19.7 19.8 2.2 1.8

India Cements Neutral 79 - 2,419 4,364 4,791 18.9 19.1 9.2 11.4 8.5 6.9 0.7 0.6 8.0 9.5 0.5 0.4J K Lakshmi Cements Reduce 85 79 1,041 1,938 2,246 19.1 20.1 15.2 16.8 5.6 5.1 0.8 0.7 13.8 14.0 0.7 1.0

Madras Cements Neutral 155 - 3,681 3,444 3,786 25.5 24.9 14.6 17.1 10.6 9.1 1.6 1.4 15.6 16.0 1.7 1.4Shree Cements Neutral 3,002 - 10,458 5,519 6,293 24.5 23.7 156.6 225.3 19.2 13.3 4.8 4.1 22.3 26.0 1.5 1.2

UltraTech Cement Neutral 1,611 - 44,159 20,167 22,752 21.7 23.0 90.8 107.8 17.7 15.0 17.7 15.0 - - 1.8 1.6Construction

Ashoka Buildcon Buy 202 273 1,063 2,014 2,293 22.4 22.4 22.6 26.7 8.9 7.6 1.0 0.9 11.4 11.9 2.4 2.7

Consolidated Co Neutral 16 - 293 2,489 2,755 7.0 7.8 3.0 4.0 5.3 4.0 0.5 0.4 8.7 10.8 0.3 0.3Hind. Const. Neutral 17 - 1,025 4,239 4,522 11.1 11.8 (1.8) (0.8) (9.4) (21.7) 1.0 1.1 (9.5) (4.7) 1.3 1.2IRB Infra Buy 116 166 3,870 3,821 4,582 42.3 40.2 15.0 16.9 7.8 6.9 1.2 1.0 16.1 15.8 2.7 2.5

ITNL Buy 172 265 3,340 6,619 7,925 23.8 23.3 22.9 27.8 7.5 6.2 1.1 1.0 15.5 16.4 2.2 2.1IVRCL Infra Buy 44 61 1,168 5,510 6,722 8.8 9.0 2.5 4.6 17.3 9.6 0.6 0.5 3.4 5.8 0.7 0.6

Jaiprakash Asso. Buy 72 88 15,225 15,259 17,502 25.7 24.7 4.2 5.0 16.9 14.3 1.4 1.3 8.5 9.3 2.4 2.1Larsen & Toubro Accumulate 1,319 1,553 80,816 59,559 69,089 12.1 11.5 78.4 85.2 16.8 15.5 2.8 2.5 16.1 15.3 1.5 1.3

Madhucon Proj Buy 35 56 255 2,206 2,502 10.7 10.7 4.6 4.7 7.5 7.4 0.4 0.4 5.2 5.0 0.7 0.7Nagarjuna Const. Neutral 36 - 930 5,453 6,169 8.1 8.5 1.6 1.9 22.1 18.8 0.4 0.4 1.8 2.1 0.6 0.7

Patel Engg. Neutral 81 - 566 3,609 3,836 13.1 13.1 14.0 14.6 5.8 5.6 0.4 0.3 6.3 6.1 1.0 1.1Punj Lloyd Neutral 49 - 1,617 11,592 12,993 8.4 8.4 1.8 3.2 27.1 15.2 0.5 0.5 2.0 3.4 0.6 0.6Sadbhav Engg. Buy 136 182 2,045 2,789 3,147 10.6 10.7 8.4 10.4 16.1 13.1 2.2 1.9 15.0 15.6 0.9 0.8

Simplex Infra Buy 208 265 1,028 6,732 7,837 8.1 8.4 23.5 29.4 8.8 7.1 0.8 0.7 9.6 11.0 0.5 0.4

Financials Allahabad Bank Accumulate 133 153 6,653 7,467 8,685 3.2 3.3 37.5 41.5 3.6 3.2 0.6 0.5 18.1 17.4 - -

Andhra Bank Neutral 105 - 5,862 5,225 6,024 3.3 3.3 22.7 25.4 4.6 4.1 0.7 0.6 16.0 15.8 - - Axis Bank Buy 1,006 1,373 41,657 15,961 19,583 3.1 3.2 117.3 143.1 8.6 7.0 1.6 1.4 20.1 20.8 - -

Bank of Baroda Buy 666 921 26,075 16,157 19,475 2.7 2.7 123.7 148.3 5.4 4.5 0.9 0.8 17.3 18.1 - -Bank of India Buy 308 388 17,661 13,657 15,902 2.5 2.6 59.5 70.6 5.2 4.4 0.8 0.7 16.2 16.9 - -

Bank of Maharashtra Neutral 46 - 2,686 3,471 3,889 3.1 3.1 9.0 11.5 5.0 4.0 0.7 0.6 13.7 15.5 - -Canara Bank Buy 361 477 16,003 12,296 14,445 2.4 2.5 81.5 92.2 4.4 3.9 0.7 0.6 16.4 16.3 - -

Central Bank Reduce 73 70 5,396 7,001 8,211 2.5 2.6 14.0 20.6 5.2 3.6 0.8 0.7 11.0 14.5 - -


July 27, 2012

Market Outlook

Stock Watch


19/24



Financials

Corporation Bank Accumulate 398 465 5,890 5,294 6,070 2.3 2.3 106.3 110.1 3.7 3.6 0.6 0.6 17.7 16.2 - -Dena Bank Accumulate 91 106 3,187 3,170 3,577 2.9 2.9 22.8 25.3 4.0 3.6 0.6 0.6 17.2 16.6 - -

Federal Bank Neutral 401 - 6,851 2,736 3,165 3.4 3.4 49.3 57.4 8.1 7.0 1.1 1.0 13.9 14.5 - -HDFC Neutral 671 - 100,187 7,340 8,805 3.5 3.5 31.5 37.8 21.3 17.7 4.3 3.8 34.8 32.2 - -

HDFC Bank Neutral 567 - 133,463 21,936 27,454 4.4 4.4 28.7 36.0 19.8 15.7 3.8 3.2 20.7 22.0 - -ICICI Bank Buy 907 1,169 104,240 22,368 26,857 2.8 2.9 68.2 80.4 13.3 11.3 1.6 1.5 14.2 15.4 - -

IDBI Bank Buy 87 113 11,090 8,152 9,907 1.9 2.1 19.7 24.1 4.4 3.6 0.6 0.5 13.6 15.0 - -Indian Bank Neutral 184 - 7,914 6,294 7,191 3.4 3.4 40.6 44.9 4.5 4.1 0.8 0.7 18.1 17.4 - -IOB Accumulate 72 91 5,746 7,578 8,662 2.6 2.7 17.2 22.5 4.2 3.2 0.5 0.5 12.1 14.3 - -

J & K Bank Accumulate 908 979 4,402 2,525 2,858 3.5 3.5 175.8 183.1 5.2 5.0 0.9 0.8 19.3 17.5 - -LIC Housing Finance Accumulate 245 286 12,367 2,104 2 ,607 2.7 2.7 24.5 30.6 10.0 8.0 1.9 1.6 20.1 21.4 - -

Oriental Bank Accumulate 227 269 6,610 6,497 7,533 2.8 2.8 53.4 63.9 4.2 3.5 0.6 0.5 13.3 14.3 - -Punjab Natl.Bank Buy 756 1,050 25,649 20,142 23,929 3.2 3.3 153.3 174.3 4.9 4.3 0.9 0.8 18.3 18.0 - -

South Ind.Bank Neutral 23 - 2,610 1,514 1,717 2.8 2.7 4.0 4.2 5.8 5.5 1.1 1.0 20.5 18.5 - -St Bk of India Buy 2,017 2,443 135,360 67,783 78,208 3.7 3.6 226.0 264.2 8.9 7.6 1.4 1.2 17.7 18.1 - -Syndicate Bank Buy 95 118 5,694 7,176 8,299 3.1 3.1 25.1 29.1 3.8 3.3 0.6 0.5 17.6 17.8 - -

UCO Bank Neutral 70 - 4,666 5,642 6,438 2.5 2.5 16.4 17.6 4.3 4.0 0.8 0.7 16.2 15.4 - -Union Bank Buy 178 256 9,803 10,623 12,404 3.0 3.0 42.5 49.6 4.2 3.6 0.7 0.6 16.9 17.2 - -

United Bank Buy 55 78 2,000 3,599 4,212 2.8 3.0 18.2 22.3 3.0 2.5 0.5 0.4 15.0 16.2 - - Vijaya Bank Reduce 53 52 2,629 2,695 3,097 2.2 2.3 9.6 12.0 5.5 4.4 0.7 0.6 12.0 13.6 - -

Yes Bank Buy 347 454 12,273 3,250 4,261 2.8 2.9 34.1 42.8 10.2 8.1 2.2 1.8 23.2 23.9 - -

FMCG

Asian Paints Neutral 3,464 - 33,228 11,423 13,309 16.3 16.3 125.3 148.4 27.7 23.3 9.4 7.4 38.0 35.4 2.9 2.5Britannia Buy 475 633 5,670 5,835 6,824 6.3 6.7 20.7 27.5 22.9 17.3 8.9 6.7 42.7 44.3 1.0 0.8Colgate Neutral 1,154 - 15,697 3,018 3,429 20.9 22.3 34.6 41.0 33.4 28.2 30.7 23.3 99.5 94.1 5.1 4.5

Dabur India Neutral 117 - 20,364 5,878 6,799 16.8 17.0 4.2 4.9 28.2 23.8 10.2 8.3 39.3 42.0 3.5 3.0GlaxoSmith Con* Neutral 2,677 - 11,257 3,124 3,663 17.1 17.6 103.0 123.3 26.0 21.7 8.0 6.4 34.0 32.9 3.2 2.7

Godrej Consumer Neutral 607 - 20,659 5,973 7,000 18.4 18.6 22.8 27.2 26.6 22.4 7.3 5.9 31.3 38.4 3.6 3.1HUL Neutral 462 - 99,864 25,350 29,309 14.3 14.4 14.1 16.4 32.7 28.2 24.5 19.1 82.7 76.2 3.9 3.3ITC Neutral 249 - 195,308 29,588 34,063 35.4 35.8 9.3 10.9 26.7 23.0 8.6 7.0 35.2 33.8 6.4 5.5


July 27, 2012

Market Outlook

Stock Watch


20/24


21/24


22/24



Real Estate

HDIL Buy 73 115 3,057 2,441 3,344 55.1 48.2 22.7 26.6 3.2 2.7 0.3 0.3 8.8 9.4 3.1 2.3MLIFE Buy 325 396 1,327 813 901 26.2 26.6 32.0 37.1 10.2 8.8 1.1 1.0 10.4 11.0 2.0 1.7

Telecom

Bharti Airtel Neutral 301 - 114,230 80,076 86,613 32.8 33.5 15.5 19.8 19.5 15.2 2.0 1.8 10.5 11.9 2.2 1.9Idea Cellular Neutral 79 - 26,164 23,209 26,063 26.2 27.5 3.3 4.9 24.0 16.0 1.9 1.7 7.7 10.3 1.6 1.4

Rcom Neutral 56 - 11,600 22,125 23,734 31.9 32.0 4.5 5.9 12.6 9.6 0.3 0.3 2.5 3.1 2.0 1.7

zOthers Abbott India Accumulate 1,456 1,628 3,094 1,661 1,918 9.7 12.0 60.7 90.4 24.0 16.1 4.9 4.0 22.0 27.3 1.7 1.4

Bajaj Electricals Buy 173 246 1,722 3,569 4,172 8.6 9.2 17.3 22.3 10.0 7.7 2.2 1.8 22.9 25.3 0.5 0.4Cera Sanitaryware Accumulate 296 327 374 405 477 15.8 17.2 31.0 41.0 9.5 7.2 2.1 1.7 24.3 25.8 1.1 1.0

Cravatex Buy 600 785 155 302 364 5.7 6.0 49.0 71.0 12.2 8.5 3.6 2.6 29.8 30.7 0.7 0.5CRISIL Neutral 956 - 6,705 982 1,136 34.3 34.3 34.3 40.0 27.8 23.9 12.6 10.1 50.9 46.9 6.5 5.5

Finolex Cables Buy 40 61 604 2,334 2,687 8.8 9.3 7.6 10.2 5.2 3.9 0.7 0.6 13.7 16.1 0.2 0.1Force Motors Buy 457 615 596 2,346 2,753 5.8 6.7 44.0 68.0 10.4 6.7 0.5 0.5 4.8 7.0 0.2 0.2Goodyear India Buy 309 374 712 1,511 1,692 7.9 9.0 31.5 41.3 9.8 7.5 1.9 1.6 21.2 23.5 0.3 0.2

Graphite India Buy 82 124 1,602 2,158 2,406 18.1 18.9 12.4 14.0 6.6 5.8 0.9 0.8 14.0 14.3 0.9 0.7Greenply Industries Buy 187 309 451 1,925 2,235 10.6 10.9 29.6 44.1 6.3 4.2 1.0 0.8 16.8 21.0 0.5 0.4

HEG Buy 206 242 822 1,746 1,946 16.5 17.7 22.5 32.9 9.1 6.3 0.9 0.9 10.4 14.2 1.1 1.1Hitachi Buy 105 160 241 857 968 6.9 8.4 10.2 16.0 10.3 6.6 1.3 1.1 12.9 17.8 0.4 0.3

Honeywell Automation Buy 2,310 2,864 2,042 1 ,761 2 ,024 6.7 8.2 95.0 127.0 24.3 18.2 2.9 2.5 14.1 16.3 1.1 1.0INEOS ABS India Buy 679 804 1,194 900 1,020 9.0 11.1 33.0 45.0 20.6 15.1 2.8 2.4 14.3 17.0 1.1 0.9

ITD Cementation Neutral 239 - 275 1,535 1,842 11.1 11.1 27.3 38.3 8.8 6.2 0.7 0.6 7.9 10.2 0.6 0.6

Jyothy Laboratories Buy 120 145 1,933 1,248 1,468 9.8 10.4 5.9 7.2 20.2 16.7 2.9 2.7 15.0 16.6 1.9 1.6MCX Buy 1,070 1,598 5,455 610 702 65.5 67.0 67.9 79.9 15.8 13.4 4.6 3.9 29.1 28.9 6.1 4.8

MRF Buy 9,952 12,688 4,221 11,887 13,693 10.4 10.8 1,298.2 1,586.0 7.7 6.3 1.5 1.2 21.5 21.2 0.5 0.4Page Industries Neutral 2,851 - 3,180 887 1,108 18.3 18.6 95.0 120.9 30.0 23.6 15.7 12.7 57.4 59.5 3.6 2.9

Relaxo Footwears Buy 528 618 634 1,019 1,220 11.2 12.2 44.2 61.8 12.0 8.5 2.8 2.1 26.8 28.6 0.8 0.7Sintex Industries Buy 58 79 1,586 4,751 5,189 16.3 16.6 13.6 15.8 4.3 3.7 0.6 0.5 12.9 13.2 0.7 0.6

Siyaram Silk Mills Buy 290 392 272 1,042 1,173 12.4 12.5 66.3 78.5 4.4 3.7 0.9 0.7 21.1 20.8 0.5 0.4S. Kumars Nationwide Buy 27 45 809 7,279 8,290 21.0 21.0 15.0 17.6 1.8 1.5 0.2 0.2 13.7 13.9 0.7 0.7

SpiceJet Buy 28 40 1,366 5,647 6,513 3.5 6.5 1.9 4.9 14.5 5.8 34.1 4.9 - - 0.4 0.3


July 27, 2012

Market Outlook

Stock Watch


23/24



zOthers

TAJ GVK Buy 65 108 408 300 319 35.8 36.2 7.9 9.1 8.2 7.2 1.1 1.0 13.9 14.4 1.7 1.4Tata Sponge Iron Buy 343 424 529 787 837 16.2 17.5 58.5 66.9 5.9 5.1 0.8 0.7 14.9 15.1 0.3 0.2

TVS Srichakra Buy 332 462 254 1,612 1,827 9.5 9.8 72.3 92.5 4.6 3.6 1.3 1.0 33.1 32.1 0.4 0.3United Spirits Neutral 745 - 9,742 10,289 11,421 13.5 14.3 31.0 42.9 24.0 17.4 1.9 1.7 8.1 10.3 1.7 1.5

Vesuvius India Accumulate 366 413 743 628 716 16.4 16.5 29.8 34.4 12.3 10.6 2.1 1.8 18.8 18.6 1.0 0.8

Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on July 26, 2012


July 27, 2012

Market Outlook

Stock Watch


24/24

July 27, 2012

Market Outlook

Market Outlook 270712

Documents

Transcript of Market Outlook 270712