Market Outlook 060612

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    Market OutlookJune 6, 2012

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    Market OutlookJune 6, 2012

    Dealers Diary

    The domestic markets are expected to open on a positive note following positive

    opening in most of the Asian indices.

    Globally, US markets ended the day in the positive territory after showing a lack of

    direction earlier in the session. After seeing substantial weakness at the start of the

    session, buying interest emerged after The Philadelphia Housing Sector Index

    surged up by 3%, bouncing well off a nearly five-month closing low. Buying

    interest, however, remained relatively subdued amid lingering concerns about the

    U.S. economic outlook following last Friday's weaker than expected jobs report,

    limiting the upside for the markets. Meanwhile, investors also were watchful of the

    developments in Europe amid news of an emergency conference call by the

    finance ministers and central bank governors of the Group of Seven industrialized

    nations.

    Looking ahead, key events to watch out for would be the developments in Europe

    with the European Central Bank scheduled to hold its monetary policy meeting

    today. Even Indian markets would be watchful ahead of the central bank's mid-

    quarterly policy review on June 18.

    Markets Today

    The trend deciding level for the day is 16,046/4,870 levels. If NIFTY trades above

    this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally

    up to 16,113 16,205/4,892 4,921 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below

    16,046/4,870 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to

    15,954 15,883/4,841 4,819 levels.

    SENSEX 15,888 15,954 16,046 16,113 16,205

    NIFTY 4,819 4,841 4,870 4,892 4,921

    News Analysis

    EGoM clears minimum 10-MHz spectrum auction, puts off decision on pricing Regulator recommends cancelation of 1 gas pipeline for GAILRefer detailed news analysis on the following page

    Net Inflows (June 04, 2012)

    FII 1,496 2,071 (574) (713) 41,226

    MFs 518 431 87 52 (6,415)

    FII Derivatives (June 05, 2012)

    Index Futures 1,272 986 286 7,667

    Stock Futures 1,170 891 279 20,373

    Gainers / Losers

    JP Infratech 46 7.9 Mphasis 346 (5.4)

    Wockhardt 870 5.6 Apollo Tyres 78 (4.1)

    Exide Industries 124 5.2 Gujarat State Petr. 67 (3.3)

    Mcleod Russel 288 4.5 Tata Motors 222 (3.2)

    Oriental Bank 230 4.5 Unitech 21 (2.8)

    BSE Sensex 0.2 32.2 16,021

    Nifty 0.3 15.2 4,863

    MID CAP 0.3 19.2 5,828

    SMALL CAP 0.2 12.8 6,193

    BSE HC 0.4 25.3 6,547

    BSE PSU 0.4 23.4 6,722

    BANKEX 0.8 88.8 10,891

    AUTO (0.2) (18.1) 8,730

    METAL (0.3) (27.1) 9,848

    OIL & GAS 0.7 53.1 7,567

    BSE IT 0.4 20.3 5,557

    Dow Jones 0.2 26.5 12,128NASDAQ 0.7 18.1 2,778

    FTSE (1.1) (60.7) 5,260

    Nikkei 1.0 86.4 8,382

    Hang Seng 0.4 73.4 18,259

    Straits Times 0.5 13.4 2,712

    Shanghai Com 0.2 3.4 2,312

    INFY 1.4 0.6 $43.3

    WIT 0.7 0.1 $8.6IBN 0.6 0.2 $28.4

    HDB 0.0 0.0 $28.1

    Advances 1,406 784

    Declines 1,291 657

    Unchanged 131 89

    BSE 1,820

    NSE 8,587

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    Market OutlookJune 6, 2012

    EGoM clears minimum 10-MHz spectrum auction, puts off

    decision on pricing

    An Empowered Group of Ministers (EGoM) headed by Finance Minister Pranab

    Mukherjee on Tuesday decided to sell up to 13.75 MHz of spectrum in the 1800MHz band in the upcoming auctions, raising the possibility of two mobile phone

    companies winning back their cancelled permits but put off a decision on the

    contentious issue of determining the reserve price for spectrum auction. A

    minimum of 10 MHz (eight blocks of 1.25Mhz) of airwaves will be sold in all 22

    circles. In addition, a provision will be made for spectrum in another three blocks

    of 1.25 MHz each to meet the requirements of new operators. It also decided that

    airwaves allotted in this auction will be technology-neutral, and it will be up to the

    winner to decide whether it wants to offer 2G, 3G or 4G services on these

    frequencies.

    Regulator recommends cancelation of 1 gas pipeline for GAIL

    Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board (PNGRB) has recommended that

    license for one upcoming pipeline of GAIL should be revoked as the project have

    witnessed considerable delay. The primary reason for very little progress on the

    projects has been falling gas production from KG D6 basin which would have

    provided gas for its pipelines. KG D6 gas output has currently decreased

    34mmscmd compared to estimated 80mmscmd. The final decision for

    cancellation of license will be taken by the Oil Ministry. Until further update on thismatter,

    Economic and Political News

    HSBC India Services PMI jumps to 3-month high to 54.7 in May 2012 Power Ministry asks Coal Ministry to change penalty clause in fuel pacts Government likely to announce new guidelines to revive SEZs Government announces steps to raise exports to US$360bn in FY2012-13 Monsoon reaches Kerala, may progress further: IMD

    Corporate News

    Lupin receives USFDA approval for antibiotic capsules Essar Oil completes optimization at its Vadinar refinery in Gujarat Suzlon announces launch of a new turbine with up to 29% more outputSource: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint

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    Global economic events release calendar

    Date Country Event Description Unit Period Bloomberg Data

    Last Reported Estimated

    Jun 6 2012 12:00AM Euro Zone Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ) % Change Mar-12 -- --

    Euro Zone ECB announces interest rates % May-12 1.00 1.00Jun 7 2012 12:00AM US Initial Jobless claims Thousands 26-May-12 383.00 378.00

    UK BOE Announces rates % Ratio May-12 0.50 0.50

    Jun 9 2012 12:00AM China Industrial Production (YoY) % Change Apr-12 9.30 9.80

    China Consumer Price Index (YoY) % Change Apr-12 3.40 3.20

    Jun 10 2012 12:00AM China Exports YoY% % Change Apr-12 4.90 7.10

    Jun 12 2012 12:00AM India Industrial Production YoY % Change Mar-12 (3.50) --

    UK Industrial Production (YoY) % Change Mar-12 (2.60) --

    Jun 13 2012 12:00AM US Producer Price Index (mom) % Change Apr-12 (0.20) (0.70)

    Jun 14 2012 12:00AM US Consumer price index (mom) % Change Apr-12 -- (0.20)

    Euro Zone Euro-Zone CPI (YoY) % Apr-12 2.60 --

    IndiaMonthly Wholesale PricesYoY%

    % Change Apr-12 7.23 --

    Jun 15 2012 12:00AM US Industrial Production % Apr-12 1.09 0.10

    Jun 18 2012 12:00AM India RBI Repo rate % - 8.00 --

    India RBI Cash Reserve ratio % - 4.75 --

    India RBI Reverse Repo rate % - 7.00 --

    Jun 19 2012 12:00AM UK CPI (YoY) % Change Apr-12 3.00 --

    US Housing Starts Thousands Apr-12 717.00 --

    US Building permits Thousands Apr-12 723.00 --

    Jun 20 2012 12:00AM UK Jobless claims change % Change Apr-12 (13.70) --

    US FOMC rate decision % Apr-12 0.25 --

    Jun 23 2012 12:00AM Germany PMI Services Value May-12 51.80 --

    Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

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    June 06, 2012

    Market Outlook

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    Market StrategyJune 6, 2012

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    Macro watch

    Exhibit1:QuarterlyGDPtrends

    5.9

    7.5

    9.8

    7.4

    9.4

    8.5

    7.68.2

    9.2

    8.0

    6.76.1

    5.3

    3.0

    4.0

    5.0

    6.0

    7.0

    8.0

    9.0

    10.0

    4QFY09

    1QFY10

    2QFY10

    3QFY10

    4QFY10

    1QFY11

    2QFY11

    3QFY11

    4QFY11

    1QFY12

    2QFY12

    3QFY12

    4QFY12

    (%)

    Source:

    CSO,

    Angel

    Research

    Exhibit2:IIPtrends

    5.36.2

    9.5

    3.7 3.42.5

    (5.0)

    6.0

    2.7

    1.1

    4.1

    (3.5)(6.0)

    (4.0)

    (2.0)

    -

    2.0

    4.0

    6.0

    8.0

    10.0

    12.0

    Apr-

    11

    May-1

    1

    Jun-1

    1

    Ju

    l-11

    Aug-1

    1

    Sep-1

    1

    Oc

    t-11

    Nov-1

    1

    Dec-1

    1

    Jan-1

    2

    Fe

    b-1

    2

    Mar-

    12

    (%)

    Source:

    MOSPI,

    Angel

    Research

    Exhibit3:MonthlyWPIinflationtrends

    9.6 9.5 9.4 9.810.0 9.9 9.5

    7.76.9

    7.46.9 7.2

    0.0

    2.0

    4.0

    6.0

    8.0

    10.0

    12.0

    May-1

    1

    Jun-1

    1

    Ju

    l-11

    Aug-1

    1

    Sep-1

    1

    Oc

    t-11

    Nov-1

    1

    Dec-1

    1

    Jan-1

    2

    Fe

    b-1

    2

    Mar-

    12

    Apr-

    12

    (%)

    Source:MOSPI,AngelResearch

    Exhibit4:ManufacturingandservicesPMI

    48.0

    50.0

    52.0

    54.0

    56.0

    58.0

    60.0

    Apr-

    11

    May-1

    1

    Jun-1

    1

    Ju

    l-11

    Aug-1

    1

    Sep-1

    1

    Oc

    t-11

    Nov-1

    1

    Dec-1

    1

    Jan-1

    2

    Fe

    b-1

    2

    Mar-

    12

    Apr-

    12

    Mfg. PMI Services PMI

    Source:Market,AngelResearch;Note:Levelabove50indicatesexpansion

    Exhibit5:Exportsandimportsgrowthtrends

    (15)

    0

    15

    30

    45

    60

    75

    90

    Apr-

    11

    May-1

    1

    Jun-1

    1

    Ju

    l-11

    Aug-1

    1

    Sep-1

    1

    Oc

    t-11

    Nov-1

    1

    Dec-1

    1

    Jan-1

    2

    Fe

    b-1

    2

    Mar-

    12

    Exports yoy growth Imports yoy growth(%)

    Source:Bloomberg,AngelResearch

    Exhibit6:Keypolicyrates8.00

    7.00

    4.75

    4.00

    5.00

    6.00

    7.00

    8.00

    9.00

    May-1

    1

    Jun-1

    1

    Ju

    l-11

    Aug-1

    1

    Sep-1

    1

    Oc

    t-11

    Nov-1

    1

    Dec-1

    1

    Jan-1

    2

    Fe

    b-1

    2

    Mar-

    12

    Apr-

    12

    May-1

    2

    Repo rate Reverse Repo rate CRR (%)

    Source:RBI,AngelResearch

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    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E

    Agri / Agri Chemical

    Rallis Neutral 123 - 2,394 1,432 1,647 14.7 14.7 7.0 8.0 17.6 15.4 3.7 3.2 22.8 22.3 1.7 1.4

    United Phosphorus Buy 112 183 5,169 8,191 8,764 16.5 16.5 17.1 18.3 6.6 6.1 1.1 0.9 17.5 16.2 0.8 0.7

    Auto & Auto Ancillary

    Amara Raja Batteries Buy 298 345 2,549 2,691 3,032 15.6 15.5 29.4 32.8 10.2 9.1 2.4 1.9 26.5 23.6 0.9 0.8

    Apollo Tyres Buy 78 100 3,939 13,699 15,184 10.5 10.2 12.1 13.3 6.5 5.9 1.2 1.0 19.7 18.4 0.5 0.4

    Ashok Leyland Buy 25 33 6,718 14,798 16,687 9.6 9.6 2.4 3.0 10.4 8.5 2.1 1.8 14.8 16.5 0.5 0.5

    Automotive Axle Buy 445 514 672 1,211 1,387 12.1 11.7 50.3 57.1 8.9 7.8 2.2 1.8 27.8 25.7 0.6 0.5Bajaj Auto Buy 1,494 1,835 43,237 22,118 24,889 19.0 18.6 115.7 126.5 12.9 11.8 5.2 4.1 45.0 38.9 1.5 1.3

    Bharat Forge Buy 303 372 7,051 7,173 7,998 16.3 16.5 22.3 26.6 13.6 11.4 2.6 2.2 21.0 21.0 1.1 0.9

    Bosch India Accumulate 8,830 9,429 27,725 9,390 10,716 19.5 19.1 420.2 471.4 21.0 18.7 4.9 4.1 23.3 21.8 2.7 2.3

    CEAT Buy 91 164 311 5,067 5,631 8.0 7.6 39.4 41.0 2.3 2.2 0.4 0.3 18.8 16.5 0.3 0.3

    Exide Industries Buy 124 146 10,553 5,787 6,595 15.5 17.0 7.1 9.0 17.5 13.9 3.1 2.6 18.6 20.3 1.5 1.2

    FAG Bearings Accumulate 1,515 1,594 2,518 1,531 1,748 18.8 18.5 118.0 132.8 12.8 11.4 2.8 2.3 24.0 21.9 1.4 1.1

    Hero Motocorp Buy 1,866 2,221 37,256 26,106 29,296 15.0 15.2 140.3 148.1 13.3 12.6 6.3 4.8 54.8 43.3 1.1 0.9

    JK Tyre Buy 75 113 307 8,058 9,025 5.4 5.5 24.8 32.2 3.0 2.3 0.3 0.3 11.4 13.2 0.3 0.3

    Mahindra and Mahindra Buy 655 793 40,200 34,740 39,263 10.7 11.0 44.9 51.7 14.6 12.7 2.6 2.3 18.9 19.1 0.8 0.7

    Maruti Buy 1,079 1,510 31,165 42,683 48,736 7.1 7.5 86.6 100.6 12.5 10.7 1.8 1.6 15.3 15.5 0.5 0.4

    Motherson Sumi Buy 160 216 6,182 11,167 12,516 9.5 10.0 11.3 14.4 14.1 11.1 3.1 2.5 23.3 24.7 0.6 0.6

    Subros Neutral 31 - 188 1,225 1,393 8.5 8.2 4.2 5.0 7.5 6.3 0.8 0.7 10.3 11.8 0.4 0.3

    Tata Motors Buy 222 299 59,045 189,676 209,586 12.5 12.5 38.3 43.2 5.8 5.1 1.9 1.5 36.0 31.9 0.4 0.4

    TVS Motor Buy 33 55 1,546 7,982 8,816 6.4 6.3 5.0 5.6 6.5 5.9 1.2 1.0 18.9 18.2 0.2 0.2

    Capital Goods

    ABB* Sell 720 498 15,248 8,760 10,023 6.4 6.4 18.2 20.7 39.5 34.7 5.3 4.8 14.4 14.6 1.7 1.5BGR Energy Neutral 276 - 1,991 4,170 5,396 11.5 10.4 27.2 30.4 10.2 9.1 1.7 1.5 17.3 17.4 1.1 1.0

    BHEL Neutral 210 - 51,424 46,344 46,916 18.3 18.6 23.5 24.1 8.9 8.7 1.8 1.6 21.3 18.9 1.0 0.9

    Blue Star Buy 161 221 1,449 3,250 3,551 5.9 5.9 12.4 15.8 13.0 10.2 2.7 2.2 21.2 23.8 0.5 0.4

    Crompton Greaves Buy 112 164 7,162 12,936 14,101 9.6 10.0 10.9 11.7 10.3 9.5 1.8 1.5 18.4 17.3 0.6 0.5

    Jyoti Structures Buy 39 67 321 2,622 2,801 10.6 11.0 10.9 13.4 3.6 2.9 0.4 0.4 12.7 13.9 0.3 0.3

    KEC International Buy 51 73 1,312 6,686 7,200 7.7 7.9 10.6 12.2 4.8 4.2 0.9 0.8 25.9 24.0 0.3 0.3

    LMW Buy 1,552 2,609 1,749 2,663 3,130 12.8 12.8 185.0 217.4 8.4 7.1 1.7 1.5 21.2 21.7 0.2 0.1

    Thermax Neutral 441 - 5,259 5,514 5,559 8.3 8.0 29.7 28.4 14.9 15.6 2.8 2.5 20.2 16.9 0.8 0.8

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    June 06, 2012

    Market Outlook

    Stock Watch

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    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E

    Cement

    ACC Neutral 1,130 - 21,218 11,018 12,663 19.9 21.2 70.7 81.2 16.0 13.9 2.8 2.5 18.0 19.0 1.7 1.4

    Ambuja Cements Neutral 146 - 22,451 10,035 11,504 23.5 23.8 10.1 10.6 14.4 13.8 2.8 2.6 18.5 19.4 1.9 1.5

    India Cements Neutral 73 - 2,245 4,423 4,906 18.2 18.8 9.9 12.7 7.4 5.8 0.6 0.6 8.6 10.5 0.8 0.7

    J K Lakshmi Cements Buy 62 79 757 1,938 2,246 19.1 20.1 14.6 16.1 4.2 3.8 0.6 0.5 13.4 13.6 0.5 0.9

    Madras Cements Neutral 137 - 3,267 3,444 3,786 25.5 24.9 14.6 17.1 9.4 8.1 1.4 1.2 15.6 16.0 1.6 1.3

    Shree Cements Neutral 2,354 - 8,201 5,465 6,249 24.3 23.7 151.5 222.1 15.5 10.6 3.7 3.2 21.6 25.8 1.2 0.9

    UltraTech Cement Neutral 1,385 - 37,946 20,116 22,655 21.3 22.5 82.1 97.5 16.9 14.2 2.7 2.3 16.8 17.4 1.8 1.7Construction

    Ashoka Buildcon Buy 209 273 1,102 2,014 2,293 22.4 22.4 22.6 26.7 9.3 7.8 1.0 0.9 11.4 11.9 2.4 2.7

    Consolidated Co Neutral 14 - 251 2,526 2,792 5.7 6.6 1.8 2.8 7.4 4.8 0.4 0.4 5.5 8.1 0.3 0.3

    Hind. Const. Neutral 17 - 1,056 4,239 4,522 11.1 11.8 (1.8) (0.8) (9.7) (22.3) 1.0 1.1 (9.5) (4.7) 1.3 1.2

    IRB Infra Buy 114 166 3,801 3,821 4,582 42.3 40.2 15.0 16.9 7.6 6.8 1.2 1.0 16.1 15.8 2.6 2.4

    ITNL Buy 171 265 3,329 6,619 7,925 23.8 23.3 22.0 26.7 7.8 6.4 1.1 1.0 14.9 15.9 2.2 2.1

    IVRCL Infra Buy 39 61 1,041 5,510 6,722 8.8 9.0 2.5 4.6 15.4 8.5 0.5 0.5 3.4 5.8 0.7 0.6

    Jaiprakash Asso. Buy 64 88 13,535 15,259 17,502 25.7 24.7 4.2 5.0 15.0 12.7 1.2 1.1 8.5 9.3 2.2 1.9

    Larsen & Toubro Buy 1,210 1,553 74,116 59,559 69,089 12.1 11.5 70.8 76.5 17.1 15.8 2.6 2.3 16.1 15.3 1.4 1.2

    Madhucon Proj Buy 38 70 278 2,206 2,502 10.7 10.7 4.6 4.7 8.1 8.1 0.4 0.4 5.2 5.0 0.7 0.7

    Nagarjuna Const. Buy 31 41 783 5,453 6,169 8.1 8.5 1.6 1.9 18.6 15.8 0.3 0.3 1.8 2.1 0.6 0.7

    Patel Engg. Neutral 85 - 593 3,609 3,836 13.1 13.1 14.0 14.6 6.1 5.8 0.4 0.4 6.3 6.1 1.0 1.1

    Punj Lloyd Neutral 44 - 1,448 10,592 12,193 8.4 8.4 2.9 4.6 15.0 9.6 0.5 0.4 3.9 3.1 0.6 0.6

    Sadbhav Engg. Buy 119 199 1,794 2,989 3,315 10.6 10.6 10.2 11.3 11.8 10.6 1.9 1.6 17.6 16.3 0.8 0.7

    Simplex Infra Buy 215 265 1,063 6,732 7,837 8.1 8.4 23.5 29.4 9.1 7.3 0.8 0.8 9.6 11.0 0.5 0.4

    FinancialsAllahabad Bank Accumulate 130 147 6,485 7,392 8,542 3.1 3.1 38.3 42.1 3.4 3.1 0.6 0.5 18.4 17.6 - -

    Andhra Bank Neutral 108 - 6,069 5,151 5,843 3.2 3.1 22.4 25.7 4.8 4.2 0.7 0.7 15.8 16.0 - -

    Axis Bank Buy 990 1,476 40,976 16,157 19,557 3.2 3.2 116.4 139.1 8.5 7.1 1.6 1.3 20.0 20.3 - -

    Bank of Baroda Buy 690 925 27,028 15,993 18,918 2.6 2.6 127.3 149.9 5.4 4.6 0.9 0.8 17.8 18.2 - -

    Bank of India Buy 337 389 19,319 13,558 15,551 2.5 2.4 61.6 70.8 5.5 4.8 0.9 0.8 16.8 16.9 - -

    Bank of Maharashtra Accumulate 50 53 2,954 3,580 4,050 3.2 3.2 11.5 13.1 4.3 3.8 0.7 0.6 17.4 17.2 - -

    Canara Bank Buy 410 493 18,141 12,061 13,906 2.3 2.3 83.1 92.7 4.9 4.4 0.8 0.7 16.7 16.4 - -

    Central Bank Neutral 74 - 5,458 6,838 7,912 2.3 2.4 13.8 20.3 5.4 3.7 0.8 0.7 10.9 14.4 - -

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    Market Outlook

    Stock Watch

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    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E

    Financials

    Corporation Bank Accumulate 411 468 6,082 5,203 5,880 2.2 2.1 107.5 112.7 3.8 3.6 0.7 0.6 17.9 16.5 - -

    Dena Bank Accumulate 93 107 3,250 3,149 3,522 2.8 2.8 23.3 26.1 4.0 3.6 0.7 0.6 17.7 17.0 - -

    Federal Bank Neutral 414 - 7,080 2,743 3,131 3.4 3.3 49.7 57.4 8.3 7.2 1.1 1.0 14.1 14.6 - -

    HDFC Neutral 644 - 95,184 7,393 8,844 3.5 3.4 31.7 37.9 20.3 17.0 4.1 3.6 34.7 31.9 - -

    HDFC Bank Accumulate 502 567 117,955 21,831 27,477 4.3 4.3 28.3 35.5 17.7 14.1 3.4 2.9 20.8 22.1 - -

    ICICI Bank Buy 790 1,174 90,830 22,209 26,512 2.8 2.8 67.9 81.1 11.6 9.7 1.4 1.3 14.7 16.0 - -

    IDBI Bank Buy 86 113 10,956 8,004 9,589 1.9 2.0 19.9 23.9 4.3 3.6 0.6 0.5 13.8 14.9 - -Indian Bank Buy 162 190 6,954 6,312 7,119 3.4 3.3 41.1 43.7 3.9 3.7 0.7 0.6 18.2 16.9 - -

    IOB Accumulate 82 92 6,567 7,354 8,283 2.5 2.4 16.3 21.7 5.1 3.8 0.6 0.5 11.5 13.9 - -

    J & K Bank Accumulate 898 952 4,354 2,535 2,861 3.5 3.4 176.3 184.4 5.1 4.9 0.9 0.8 19.3 17.6 - -

    LIC Housing Finance Buy 233 286 11,769 2,108 2,607 2.6 2.6 24.5 30.6 9.5 7.6 1.8 1.5 20.1 21.4 - -

    Oriental Bank Accumulate 228 262 6,662 6,431 7,315 2.7 2.6 54.4 63.8 4.2 3.6 0.6 0.5 13.6 14.3 - -

    Punjab Natl.Bank Buy 751 1,041 25,483 19,893 23,653 3.1 3.2 153.4 175.2 4.9 4.3 0.9 0.7 18.3 18.1 - -

    South Ind.Bank Neutral 23 - 2,639 1,440 1,635 2.7 2.5 3.8 4.1 6.2 5.7 1.2 1.1 19.9 18.6 - -

    St Bk of India Buy 2,080 2,469 139,594 68,311 79,649 3.6 3.6 230.4 273.4 9.0 7.6 1.5 1.3 18.2 18.8 - -

    Syndicate Bank Buy 93 126 5,577 7,133 8,255 3.0 3.0 25.9 30.0 3.6 3.1 0.6 0.5 16.9 17.1 - -

    UCO Bank Neutral 71 - 4,746 5,623 6,380 2.4 2.4 16.9 17.9 4.2 4.0 0.8 0.7 16.5 15.4 - -

    Union Bank Buy 194 261 10,694 10,215 11,854 2.9 2.8 42.7 50.3 4.6 3.9 0.8 0.6 17.0 17.5 - -

    United Bank Buy 61 78 2,184 3,551 4,128 2.7 2.8 18.8 22.6 3.2 2.7 0.5 0.4 15.5 16.5 - -

    Vijaya Bank Neutral 56 - 2,770 2,668 3,001 2.2 2.2 10.6 12.2 5.3 4.6 0.7 0.6 13.3 13.8 - -

    Yes Bank Buy 322 450 11,407 3,209 4,144 2.7 2.8 33.9 41.5 9.5 7.8 2.0 1.7 23.1 23.3 - -

    FMCG

    Asian Paints Neutral 3,721 - 35,690 11,423 13,309 16.3 16.3 125.3 148.4 29.7 25.1 10.1 7.9 38.0 35.4 3.0 2.6Britannia Buy 518 633 6,189 5,835 6,824 6.3 6.7 20.7 27.5 25.0 18.8 9.8 7.3 42.7 44.3 1.0 0.9

    Colgate Neutral 1,143 - 15,539 3,007 3,417 21.1 22.1 37.7 42.6 30.3 26.9 36.1 29.2 129.4 120.1 5.0 4.4

    Dabur India Neutral 102 - 17,778 5,878 6,799 16.8 17.0 4.2 4.9 24.6 20.8 8.9 7.3 39.3 42.0 3.0 2.6

    GlaxoSmith Con* Neutral 2,737 - 11,510 3,124 3,663 17.1 11.6 103.0 123.3 26.6 22.2 8.2 6.6 34.0 32.9 3.4 2.8

    Godrej Consumer Neutral 573 - 19,489 5,973 7,000 18.4 18.6 22.8 27.2 25.1 21.1 6.9 5.6 31.3 38.4 3.4 2.9

    HUL Neutral 408 - 88,211 25,350 29,309 14.3 14.4 14.1 16.4 28.9 24.9 21.6 16.9 82.7 76.2 3.3 2.8

    ITC Accumulate 226 252 176,579 29,638 34,159 35.4 35.8 9.3 10.9 24.2 20.7 7.8 6.4 35.3 33.8 5.7 4.9

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    Stock Watch

  • 7/31/2019 Market Outlook 060612

    8/11

    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E

    FMCG

    Marico Neutral 167 - 10,785 4,667 5,427 12.8 12.9 6.6 8.1 25.2 20.6 6.7 5.3 30.0 28.8 2.3 2.0

    Nestle* Neutral 4,533 - 43,700 8,731 10,539 21.0 21.4 119.3 147.9 38.0 30.7 23.3 15.9 73.0 61.6 5.0 4.1

    Tata Global Buy 105 136 6,515 7,011 7,711 9.7 10.0 6.3 7.5 16.8 14.1 1.6 1.6 9.5 10.9 0.8 0.8

    IT

    HCL Tech Accumulate 495 560 34,313 22,792 25,743 17.4 17.4 37.8 43.0 13.1 11.5 2.9 2.4 22.3 21.3 1.5 1.3

    Hexaware Accumulate 121 128 3,578 1,821 2,105 19.0 18.6 9.8 10.7 12.3 11.3 2.8 2.5 23.7 22.5 1.7 1.4

    Infosys Buy 2,389 2,792 137,201 37,615 42,491 31.1 30.6 158.5 174.5 15.1 13.7 3.4 2.9 22.5 20.8 3.0 2.5Infotech Enterprises Accumulate 166 177 1,848 1,758 1,972 17.0 16.6 16.8 18.6 9.9 8.9 1.4 1.2 13.6 13.2 0.7 0.5

    KPIT Cummins Reduce 124 114 2,216 2,028 2,239 15.0 14.8 9.0 11.4 13.8 10.9 2.5 2.1 19.3 18.7 1.1 0.9

    Mahindra Satyam Accumulate 76 86 8,956 7,097 7,812 16.2 16.0 7.5 8.0 10.1 9.6 1.3 1.2 13.2 12.3 0.8 0.7

    Mindtree Neutral 629 - 2,555 2,172 2,450 16.1 15.5 53.9 58.5 11.7 10.8 2.2 1.8 18.9 17.0 1.0 0.8

    Mphasis Buy 346 433 7,264 5,904 6,320 18.3 17.9 38.7 41.2 8.9 8.4 1.3 1.2 14.9 13.7 0.8 0.6

    NIIT Buy 41 52 677 1,162 1,304 14.8 15.1 7.1 8.8 5.8 4.7 1.0 0.9 16.7 18.4 0.4 0.3

    Persistent Accumulate 339 361 1,357 1,109 1,224 23.3 22.4 37.2 40.1 9.1 8.5 1.4 1.2 15.4 14.5 0.9 0.7

    TCS Neutral 1,227 - 240,180 57,189 66,329 29.3 28.7 63.2 70.9 19.4 17.3 5.9 4.8 30.5 27.7 4.0 3.3

    Tech Mahindra Accumulate 670 725 8,542 5,880 6,314 15.6 15.2 75.9 82.2 8.8 8.2 1.8 1.5 20.1 18.1 1.4 1.2

    Wipro Accumulate 399 430 98,108 41,918 46,879 19.4 19.9 25.1 28.7 15.9 13.9 3.0 2.6 18.6 18.3 2.0 1.7

    Media

    D B Corp Buy 195 269 3,576 1,652 1,863 25.7 26.3 13.5 16.1 14.5 12.1 3.2 2.7 24.1 24.4 2.1 1.8

    HT Media Buy 109 148 2,551 2,255 2,555 16.3 16.7 9.0 10.6 12.1 10.2 1.5 1.3 13.4 13.8 0.7 0.6

    Jagran Prakashan Buy 87 137 2,752 1,499 1,642 27.4 28.8 7.6 9.1 11.4 9.6 3.8 3.4 34.6 37.7 1.8 1.6

    PVR Neutral 152 - 394 625 732 17.4 16.9 12.4 15.8 12.2 9.6 2.0 2.1 8.5 9.9 0.8 0.7

    Sun TV Network Neutral 227 - 8,960 2,135 2,458 75.2 74.4 20.9 24.0 10.9 9.5 2.6 2.1 26.0 25.1 3.2 2.5Metals & Mining

    Bhushan Steel Neutral 436 - 9,263 9,232 13,557 30.8 31.1 48.0 58.6 9.1 7.4 1.2 1.0 14.5 7.5 3.1 2.2

    Coal India Accumulate 316 353 199,787 68,841 74,509 25.3 25.3 24.1 26.1 13.2 12.1 3.6 3.0 30.4 26.8 2.0 1.7

    Electrosteel Castings Buy 17 27 597 1,984 2,074 10.6 12.0 2.7 3.3 6.4 5.3 0.3 0.1 5.2 6.2 0.4 0.4

    Hind. Zinc Buy 116 139 48,802 13,043 14,223 51.8 52.8 14.8 16.6 7.8 7.0 1.5 1.3 21.2 19.9 2.0 1.4

    Hindalco Neutral 117 - 22,429 84,652 88,766 9.6 10.5 17.0 18.9 6.9 6.2 0.6 0.6 9.7 9.8 0.5 0.5

    JSW Steel Accumulate 604 663 13,476 39,592 44,910 18.0 17.7 74.7 88.9 8.1 6.8 0.8 0.7 10.7 11.6 0.7 0.7

    MOIL Accumulate 272 296 4,575 1,007 1,091 56.6 56.9 29.4 31.9 9.3 8.5 1.7 1.5 19.0 18.2 2.3 1.9

    Monnet Ispat Buy 357 593 2,294 3,115 3,748 22.1 25.1 59.1 66.8 6.0 5.3 0.8 0.7 15.6 15.3 1.5 1.1

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  • 7/31/2019 Market Outlook 060612

    9/11

    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E

    Metals & Mining

    Nalco Reduce 58 54 15,038 8,474 9,024 12.6 16.2 2.6 3.6 22.8 16.3 1.3 1.2 5.6 7.5 1.3 1.3

    NMDC Accumulate 166 187 65,834 11,959 13,062 78.2 78.6 19.1 20.9 8.7 7.9 2.1 1.8 27.1 24.4 3.4 2.9

    SAIL Accumulate 93 102 38,207 52,461 62,935 18.0 18.8 13.2 14.5 7.0 6.4 0.8 0.8 12.4 12.3 1.1 1.0

    Sesa Goa Buy 176 206 15,331 9,067 9,316 35.7 35.5 44.5 44.3 4.0 4.0 0.9 0.7 23.5 19.5 0.3 -

    Sterlite Inds Buy 90 123 30,229 45,805 49,029 21.2 23.5 16.5 19.1 5.5 4.7 0.6 0.5 11.5 12.0 0.3 0.2

    Tata Steel Buy 399 499 38,703 143,088 148,011 10.9 12.1 53.9 66.0 7.4 6.0 0.9 0.8 12.2 13.4 0.6 0.6

    Oil & GasCairn India Buy 315 372 60,145 15,513 16,074 74.0 69.7 51.1 48.6 6.2 6.5 1.0 0.9 18.3 14.8 2.7 2.0

    GAIL Buy 321 392 40,712 50,472 55,503 15.3 15.6 35.4 37.0 9.1 8.7 1.6 1.4 18.7 17.0 0.5 0.4

    ONGC Buy 254 319 217,053 148,157 150,563 37.6 39.5 31.0 33.6 8.2 7.6 1.5 1.3 18.8 18.1 1.1 1.0

    Reliance Industries Buy 702 872 229,955 325,734 328,669 10.9 11.7 65.8 70.1 10.7 10.0 1.1 1.0 11.9 11.5 0.7 0.7

    Pharmaceuticals

    Alembic Pharma Buy 49 91 916 1,624 1,855 14.2 15.6 6.6 9.1 7.4 5.3 1.8 1.4 27.5 29.2 0.8 0.7

    Aurobindo Pharma Buy 106 156 3,093 5,243 5,767 14.6 14.6 13.8 14.7 7.7 7.2 0.9 0.4 11.4 10.9 0.7 0.6

    Aventis* Neutral 2,105 - 4,848 1,482 1,682 15.5 15.5 95.0 104.0 22.2 20.2 3.9 3.1 18.6 17.0 3.1 2.6

    Cadila Healthcare Buy 730 953 14,952 6,196 7,443 18.5 19.5 43.3 50.8 16.9 14.4 4.3 3.5 25.4 24.8 2.4 1.9

    Cipla Buy 309 379 24,774 7,687 8,804 21.4 21.4 16.5 18.9 18.7 16.3 2.9 2.6 16.7 16.8 3.2 2.7

    Dr Reddy's Neutral 1,619 - 27,438 10,696 11,662 20.7 21.0 83.7 92.9 19.3 17.4 4.0 3.4 22.4 21.0 2.7 2.4

    Dishman Pharma Buy 51 92 414 1,280 1,536 17.8 17.8 9.2 11.3 5.6 4.5 0.4 0.4 7.7 8.5 1.0 0.8

    GSK Pharma* Neutral 2,008 - 17,004 2,651 2,993 31.7 31.2 76.0 82.4 26.4 24.4 7.6 6.6 30.8 29.0 5.5 4.7

    Indoco Remedies Buy 54 82 500 685 837 15.2 15.2 7.4 8.9 7.3 6.1 1.1 0.9 15.9 16.3 0.9 0.7

    Ipca labs Buy 337 435 4,234 2,850 3,474 20.3 20.3 26.6 32.7 12.7 10.3 3.2 2.6 28.2 27.9 1.6 1.3

    Lupin Buy 541 646 24,171 8,426 10,082 19.7 20.0 29.7 32.4 18.2 16.7 4.8 3.8 27.0 25.2 2.8 2.2Orchid Chemicals Buy 119 178 835 2,117 2,434 17.7 17.7 16.7 22.2 7.1 5.3 0.7 0.6 9.5 11.5 1.0 0.9

    Ranbaxy* Neutral 483 - 20,386 12,046 11,980 18.0 15.8 35.7 29.8 13.5 16.2 5.1 4.1 43.1 28.1 1.7 1.7

    Sun Pharma Neutral 559 - 57,536 9,272 11,080 38.6 38.0 22.7 22.6 24.6 24.7 4.1 3.6 17.9 15.6 5.0 3.9

    Power

    CESC Buy 263 342 3,289 5,084 5,512 24.2 23.8 45.2 48.5 5.8 5.4 0.6 0.6 11.2 10.9 1.1 1.1

    GIPCL Buy 59 77 895 1,557 1,573 28.8 28.5 10.4 10.9 5.7 5.4 0.6 0.5 10.4 10.2 1.0 0.9

    NTPC Accumulate 147 158 121,167 74,766 86,549 23.1 23.4 12.4 14.1 11.8 10.4 1.5 1.4 13.0 13.5 2.3 2.1

    Real Estate

    Anant Raj Buy 47 78 1,397 657 875 52.0 56.1 8.4 12.7 5.6 3.7 0.3 0.3 6.3 8.9 3.4 2.6

    DLF Neutral 183 - 31,123 9,878 12,033 44.7 46.1 9.6 13.4 19.1 13.7 1.2 1.2 6.4 8.7 5.6 4.6

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    June 06, 2012

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    Stock Watch

  • 7/31/2019 Market Outlook 060612

    10/11

    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E

    Real Estate

    HDIL Buy 64 115 2,673 2,441 3,344 53.0 46.7 21.4 25.4 3.0 2.5 0.2 0.2 8.4 9.1 2.9 2.2

    Telecom

    Bharti Airtel Neutral 287 - 109,008 80,967 88,684 33.1 33.4 17.9 22.0 16.1 13.0 1.9 1.6 11.5 12.5 2.0 1.7

    Idea Cellular Neutral 76 - 25,151 22,558 25,326 26.4 27.5 3.2 4.7 23.6 16.0 1.8 1.6 7.5 10.0 1.6 1.4

    Rcom Neutral 62 - 12,807 21,899 23,740 32.7 32.7 4.2 6.7 14.7 9.3 0.3 0.3 2.1 3.2 2.0 1.6

    zOthers

    Bajaj Electrical Buy 178 245 1,776 3,670 4,384 8.5 8.5 18.3 22.3 9.7 8.0 2.1 1.8 23.9 24.3 0.5 0.4CRISIL Neutral 1,055 - 7,406 982 1,136 34.3 34.3 34.3 40.0 30.7 26.4 13.9 11.1 50.9 46.9 7.1 6.0

    Finolex Cables Buy 37 61 566 2,334 2,687 8.8 9.3 7.6 10.2 4.8 3.6 0.6 0.5 13.7 16.1 0.2 0.1

    Graphite India Buy 88 124 1,712 2,158 2,406 18.1 18.9 12.4 14.0 7.1 6.2 0.9 0.9 14.0 14.3 0.9 0.8

    Greenply Buy 215 298 519 1,800 2,047 11.1 11.6 34.1 49.6 6.3 4.3 1.2 0.9 20.2 23.7 0.5 0.4

    Page Industries Neutral 2,981 - 3,325 935 1,168 19.6 19.6 99.7 122.2 29.9 24.4 17.3 13.9 64.2 63.1 3.6 2.9

    Sintex Buy 53 129 1,440 4,751 5,189 16.3 16.6 13.6 15.8 3.9 3.3 0.5 0.5 13.1 13.4 0.7 0.5

    Siyaram Silk Mills Buy 252 439 236 1,042 1,173 12.4 12.5 66.3 78.5 3.8 3.2 0.7 0.6 21.1 20.8 0.5 0.4

    SpiceJet Neutral 30 - 1,443 5,384 6,443 (1.0) 4.1 (3.4) 2.4 (8.7) 12.5 (12.1) 25.4 - - 0.5 0.4

    Taj GVK Buy 60 108 375 300 319 35.8 36.2 7.9 9.1 7.6 6.6 1.0 0.9 13.9 14.4 1.6 1.3

    Goodyear Accumulate 329 372 759 1,571 1,753 7.2 8.6 29.8 42.4 11.0 7.8 2.1 1.7 20.2 24.3 0.3 0.2

    HEG Buy 198 242 792 1,746 1,946 16.5 17.7 22.5 32.9 8.8 6.0 0.9 0.8 10.4 14.2 1.1 1.0

    Hitachi Buy 115 160 265 857 968 6.9 8.4 10.2 16.0 11.3 7.2 1.4 1.2 12.9 17.8 0.4 0.3

    Honeywell Automation Accumulate 2,516 2,674 2,224 1,542 1,739 9.4 10.0 116.1 140.8 21.7 17.9 3.1 2.7 15.5 15.9

    Ineos ABS Accumulate 736 777 1,295 900 1,011 10.2 11.5 35.6 45.7 20.7 16.1 3.0 2.6 15.4 17.2

    ITD Cementation Accumulate 220 236 253 1,535 1,842 11.1 11.1 27.3 38.3 8.1 5.8 0.6 0.6 7.9 10.2 0.6 0.6

    MRF Buy 10,551 13,106 4,475 12,390 14,400 10.4 11.3 1,334.6 1,638.2 7.9 6.4 1.6 1.3 16.5 17.4 0.6 0.5Relaxo Neutral 462 - 554 1,019 1,208 11.0 10.8 44.9 53.1 10.3 8.7 2.5 1.9 27.2 25.0 0.7 0.6

    Tata Sponge Buy 280 420 431 757 875 19.0 19.1 63.5 72.9 4.4 3.8 0.7 0.6 16.1 16.1 0.2 -

    TVS Srichakra Buy 319 462 244 1,612 1,827 9.5 9.8 72.3 92.5 4.4 3.5 1.3 1.0 33.1 32.1 0.4 0.3

    Vesuvius India Accumulate 376 413 763 628 716 16.4 16.5 29.8 34.4 12.6 10.9 2.2 1.9 18.8 18.6 1.1 0.9

    Abbott India Accumulate 1,416 1,628 3,008 1,661 1,918 9.7 12.0 60.7 90.4 23.3 15.7 4.8 3.9 22.0 27.3 1.6 1.3

    Cera Sanitaryware Ltd Accumulate 252 288 319 385 444 17.2 17.4 28.9 32.0 8.7 7.9 1.8 1.5 23.4 21.1 1.0 0.9

    Jyothy Laboratories Buy 214 268 1,721 1,315 1,568 8.6 11.1 6.4 10.9 33.5 19.6 2.8 2.7 8.4 13.9 1.6 1.3

    Force Motors Buy 420 680 547 2,346 2,753 6.7 7.0 50.9 61.9 8.3 6.8 0.5 0.4 5.5 6.3 0.1 0.2

    Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on June 05, 2012

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    June 06, 2012Market Outlook