Mapping broadband in the UK Q2 2013 - Point...

Mapping broadband in the UK – Q2 2013:

Broadband coverage estimates for every UK postcode

Prepared by: Laura Kell

Date: 22 August 2013

Version: 1.1

Point Topic Ltd 73 Farringdon Road

London EC1M 3JQ, UK Tel. +44 (0) 20 3301 3305

Email [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

Point Topic – mapping broadband in the UK – Q2 2013

of 29

Contents

1. Introduction 3

2. The UK’s broadband market – June 2013 4

3. The foundations of broadband mapping 7

3.1 A unit postcode database 7

3.2 Households, business numbers and population 7

3.3 Higher geographies 7

4. Mapping exchange properties 8

4.1 Mapping the exchange boundaries 8

4.2 LLU operators present within an exchange 9

4.3 Technologies present within an exchange 12

4.4 Distance from the exchange 13

5. Mapping the speed of ADSL broadband 14

6. Mapping the availability of superfast services 17

7. Mapping the availability of cable services 18

8. Mapping the availability of FTTx services 20

8.1 BT’s Infinity service 20

8.2 Commercial roll-out outside the cable coverage area (UK profile) 20

8.3 Commercial roll-out within the cable coverage area (UK profile) 21

8.4 State-funded roll-out 22

8.5 Alterative network fibre providers 23

9. UK technology coverage – end June 2013 24

10. The roll-out of next generation access services 26

10.1 UK superfast broadband targets and milestones 26

10.2 BT’s commercial roll-out of superfast broadband 26

10.3 BDUK state-funded roll-out of superfast broadband services 27

10.4 Predicting the roll-out of superfast services in the UK 27


of 29

1. Introduction

Every six months, Point Topic updates its database of broadband availability in every postcode in the

UK. We report on key broadband coverage metrics for the UK’s fixed broadband market:

Exchanges – we map the area served by each telephone exchange in the UK. We report

whether the exchange has been unbundled, which operators offer services and the

technology installed at the exchange.

Cable coverage area – we map the full cable franchise area and our estimate of the

postcodes that are currently activated;

FTTx availability – we look at the exchanges that have been enabled for fibre and estimate

the likely coverage of households in those exchanges. We also track coverage of the UK’s

alternative fibre providers;

Downstream speeds – typical modem sync speed and throughput speed for copper services

and top-speed available from any broadband service;

Superfast forecasts – we report how likely is it that premises within the postcode will be

able to access superfast services in the next five years.

This document describes how we create our database of UK broadband availability and looks at the

UK’s fixed broadband market at the end of June 2013.

If you have any questions, or if you would like to access our full database of broadband availability

and take-up in every UK postcode, please get in touch.

mailto:[email protected]?subject=UK%20Broadband%20Geography%20-%20tell%20me%20more


of 29

2. The UK’s broadband market – June 2013

Availability of current generation LLU broadband services

Figure 1: Total premises covered and growth between end-Dec 2013 and end-June 2013

LLU services were made available to an extra 0.5m premises in the first half of 2013. Sky’s coverage

extended to a further 1.3m premises following the acquisition of O2 in the first half of the year, but

has still not exceeded TalkTalk’s coverage.

Availability of broadband technologies

Figure 2: premises covered by broadband

technology group

At the end of June 2013, we estimate that

nearly 46% of premises (13.4m) could access

cable services and over 55% (16.3m) could

access FTTx services.

Nearly 30% of premises could not access any

next generation broadband service.

Nearly 30% could access cable, FTTx or ADSL

services.

Less than 1% could not access any

broadband service offering speeds over

125kbps.


of 29

Speed of broadband services

Figure 3: topspeed available to premises in the UK

The top-speed available to users in a postcode depends on the technology available to them.

0.1% of premises are now able to access gigabit services from Gigaclear, Hyperoptic, B4RN or

CityFibre. 5.0% are able to access BT’s 330Mbps FTTP services or KC’s 350Mbps service. For 41% of

premises cable is their fastest service available, and for 27% their fastest service is BT’s 80Mbps FTTC

service. The rest of the UK’s premises can only access copper based broadband services.

Superfast broadband – five-year forecast

In June 2017 the UK Government announced a revised target to bring superfast broadband to 95%

of the country by 2017.

Point Topic has created a model which looks at how likely it is that every postcode in the UK will get

superfast services. It looks at the likely roll-out of BT’s commercial services, as well as expected

BDUK investment.

Our new forecasts assume that the targets for roll-out will be met. This is an area of considerable

debate. The model does not attempt to foresee whether targets will be met – instead it focuses on

the areas that will be left behind once different levels of coverage are met.

The map on the next page shows our forecast of superfast coverage at the end of 2015. Overall the

UK is expected to have just over 90% coverage at the end of 2015 - Wales and the South West will

have the lowest coverage, with 83% and 84% superfast coverage respectively.


of 29

Superfast broadband availability – year-end 2015

Figure 4: superfast broadband availability by Census Output Area (COA) – end 2015


of 29

3. The foundations of broadband mapping

3.1 A unit postcode database

Our datasets are built from a database of every unit postcode within the United Kingdom. Point

Topic uses the Code Point postcode database published by the Ordnance Survey to provide the

precise geographical location of the centroid of each postcode.

Our most recent dataset (V18) used the Code Point dataset for year-end 2012.

3.2 Households, business numbers and population

Household, business and population numbers are published regularly by national government

organisations1, usually at the local authority level. This data needs to be disaggregated down to the

postcode level.

Ordnance Survey publishes the number of domestic and non-domestic drop points within every

postcode in the UK. We use this to estimate the distribution of households, businesses and

populations within every postcode in the UK, based on the aggregated data published by the

national statistics offices.

3.3 Higher geographies

Each unit postcode is allocated to higher level geographies:

Country, Government Office Region, Local Authority, MSOA, LSOA, telephone exchange, postal

sector, Census Output Area (COA).

Our UK Broadband Geography data is available for every postcode in the UK, although some users

may choose only to purchase the higher level or aggregated datasets. These datasets are most useful

for making quick comparisons between areas.

1 Households and population: DCLG on gov.uk, ONS, Stats Wales, General Register Office for Scotland.

Business premises: Valuation Office Agency, Scottish Assessors Association, Department of Finance and Personnel (Northern Ireland)


of 29

4. Mapping exchange properties

To map the availability of broadband across the UK, it is essential to have an understanding of the

locations and boundaries of its telephone exchanges. BT publishes the postcode location of its

exchanges, but is yet to provide a publically available source of data for the area served by each

exchange.

Point Topic has therefore developed a methodology to map the boundaries of each exchange and

therefore map each postcode to its local telephone exchange.

4.1 Mapping the exchange boundaries

The postcode location of all exchanges is published, but to understand broadband availability we

need to be able to map the boundaries of the exchanges.

Point Topic has therefore modelled the likely boundary of exchanges. Our estimates have been

shown to be 87% accurate, with the greatest inaccuracy lying on the boundaries of exchanges and in

postcodes that are served by multiple exchanges.

Our approach assumes that:

• An imaginary line connecting any two neighbouring exchanges will be bisected at a right

angle by an exchange boundary.

• The exchange boundary will be exactly midway between the two exchanges.

Figure 5: Voronoi tessellation is

used to estimate the KCOM and BT

exchange boundaries

We use the same approach to estimate the boundaries of KCOM Group exchanges within the UK. In

this way, every postcode in the UK is allocated to its local exchange.


of 29

4.2 LLU operators present within an exchange

Point Topic uses data published by SamKnows to identify which exchanges have been unbundled for

LLU operators. Combined with our data on the exchange boundaries, we can then calculate the

coverage of LLU operators.

Local loop unbundling in the UK is still on the rise, although its growth rate is slowing. By the end of

June 2013, 92.4% of homes and businesses in the country were within reach of LLU broadband

services, up from 89% at the end of 2011 and 84% at the end of 2010.

The proportions vary by country – with 85% of premises covered in Northern Ireland and Scotland,

87% in Wales and 93% of premises covered in England.

In total there are 2,753 exchanges in the UK that had at least one LLU operator present, up from

around 2,460 at the end of 2011 and 2,070 at the end of 2010.

TalkTalk covers more premises than any of the other LLU operators. Sky’s coverage extended to a

further 1.3m premises following the acquisition of Telefonica’s O2 and BE consumer broadband

businesses in the first half of the year, but its network almost totally overlaps with TalkTalk.

Figure 6: premises passed per LLU operator, June 2013. Source – Point Topic

LLU coverage has brought significant advantages to the areas where it is available. The LLU operators

have been able to offer higher broadband speeds, at least to premises which are close enough to the

exchange, up to 24Mbps in theory compared with the limit offered by BT from its ADSL Max

exchanges (see next section for more information on ADSL Max).

Perhaps equally important for consumers is that unbundling has allowed these operators to provide

a range of bundled services, offering broadband with voice or TV, as well as other value-added

products such as online security. They are not simply re-branding a service that is available from BT;

instead they can design their own broadband offerings to suit their target customers. And of course

LLU has brought competition and greater choice for end users.


of 29

For the operators, fully unbundled customers (MPF) tend to generate greater value, on average 50%

more over their lifetime for TalkTalk, than partially unbundled (SMPF) customers, and significantly

more value than off-net customers, three times more in TalkTalk’s case.

Figure 7: LLU operator presence end June 2013


of 29

Although LLU coverage has increased over the years, it is still available in only 49% of exchange

areas. While up from 44% in 2011 and 37% in 2010, this still means that thousands of small towns

and villages are without the benefits of LLU – in total 8% of all UK premises. The problem is that the

economics of LLU are only attractive for larger exchanges and in areas where the operator has

backhaul infrastructure – access to fibre trunk networks – needed to support large numbers of

customers using high bandwidths. Unfortunately for these areas the same factors which make them

unattractive for LLU also make them difficult for rolling out next-generation networks.

It is unlikely that there will be much further development of LLU, given that the most attractive areas

have already been covered, the competitive advantage LLU provides has been reduced by the rollout

of BT’s 21CN (see next section), and because focus has shifted to next-generation infrastructure

deployment.

However, the largest players, namely Sky Broadband and TalkTalk, will continue their LLU DSL-based

footprint expansion. For the time being most end-users are on standard broadband lines with only a

minority taking up fibre-based broadband. Most revenues are derived from current generation

broadband and not premium superfast services. So LLU stands up economically for these larger

players with scale and market share for some time to come.

Indeed, the availability of LLU particularly among the big brand services providers including Sky and

TalkTalk, has historically delayed the introduction of fibre-based superfast services as they aim to

maximise their investment in LLU. Openreach’s Generic Ethernet Access (GEA) product in variants

for fibre-to-the-cabinet and fibre-to-the-premises is a virtual unbundled local access product, an

electronic means to provide virtual, bitstream-type access. Ofcom has adopted this approach due to

the complexities and expense involved in unbundling GPON networks, and it is likely to remain this

way unless physical unbundling of fibre networks becomes less complex and expensive.


of 29

4.3 Technologies present within an exchange

The technology installed in the exchange can affect the service its users experience.

In every exchange, we report whether ADSL Max or 21CN (“twenty-first century”) technology has

been installed.

Figure 8: ADSL Max and 21CN – exchanges enabled and premises covered, end June 2013

ADSL Max

At the end of 2012 ADSL Max was available in all but 86 UK exchanges (73 of these exchanges are in

Scotland) and covered 99.9% of premises within the UK.

In those exchanges that don’t have ADSL Max, broadband speeds would never be expected to

exceed 1.5Mbps.

21CN network

The advantages of LLU are significantly reduced if BT has installed its “twenty-first century” or 21CN

network. This national deployment of ADSL2+ has helped put BT on a better footing compared with

the LLU operators in terms of speed and quality, enabling BT Wholesale’s WBC (Wholesale

Broadband Connect) advanced copper service offering an up to 20 Mbps broadband service. In those

exchanges where 21CN is not activated, broadband speeds would never be expected to exceed

12Mbps.

Over 2,546 BT exchanges serving 88% of UK homes and businesses are now enabled for WBC

offering an up to 20 Mbps broadband service. This compares with 1,870 exchanges at the end of

2011 covering 79% of UK premises.

BT Wholesale has met its target to WBC-enable exchanges serving around 90% by Spring 2013,

thereby bringing the advantage of 21CN for areas with limited broadband infrastructure including

higher speeds. We expect retail broadband prices in areas 21CN-enabled areas to see a reduction,

although those without LLU are likely to remain higher.


of 29

4.4 Distance from the exchange

One of the most frequently asked questions about the broadband environment in the UK is about

the profile of local loop lengths.

The length of the pair of wire (or the loop length) which connects each telephone end-user to their

telephone exchange is one of the main factors which determine the data bandwidth the customer

can be provided with over a DSL service. So the profile of loop lengths reveals, for example, how

many homes can be provided with a fast enough service to stream video content using a DSL

connection?

One reason the question is asked so often is that the information is not readily available. In 2005 the

Chief Technical Officer of BT Exact, the telco’s research and development unit, revealed the broad

profile of loop lengths in the UK. From this presentation, Point Topic has extracted the relationship

between the linear distance from the exchange and the actual loop length.

The average loop length in the UK is around 3.4km, and the majority (27%) have a loop length

between 2 and 3m. Distance from the exchange is a key factor that helps us determine the speed of

an ADSL broadband connection, as described in the next section.

Figure 9: the loop length profile of the UK - % premises by local loop length. Source – Point

Topic, June 2013


of 29

5. Mapping the speed of ADSL broadband

There are many factors which can affect the speed a user receives when connecting to the internet

in their home, not least the tariff that they subscribe to.

Assuming that all users subscribe to the highest available tariff, the single most important factor

which affects the data bandwidth a user can receive over an ADSL service is the length of the pair of

wires (or the loop length) which connects each telephone end-user to their telephone exchange.

Point Topic has completed a statistical analysis of 1.6m speed test results, to establish the

relationship between ADSL speed and the implied local loop length.

Using speed test results alone is not a robust way to estimate the likely speed in an area. There are

many different factors that can affect speed at any particular time – contention, tariffs, backhaul

provision – and these will all be reflected in the reported results. Getting close to the average speed

that users in a postcode should expect to get is therefore very difficult and requires large sample

sizes for each of the UK’s 1.7m postcodes. Point Topic’s approach – modelling based on speed test

inputs – produces the most accurate estimates per postcode available publically.

We report two key measures of speed for ADSL broadband services, based on our analysis of speed

test inputs:

Modem sync speed (@75%)

Modem sync speed is set by the ISP. This is an optimal number since:

a) this is only the speed between you and your ISP with nothing in between slowing the

signal down;

b) when you're actually sending information to and fro over the internet you have a certain

amount of bandwidth that has to be allocated to packet routing.

For every postcode in the UK, we report the modem sync speed that users should expect to

get 50% of the time. The actual speed that they receive could then be higher or lower.

Throughput speed (@75%)

The throughput speed is a closer reflection of the speed that a user will actually experience.

We provide the average bandwidth which users should expect to get 75% of the time,

assuming that they subscribe to an up to 24Mbps (maximum) ADSL2+ bandwidth tariff from

an ISP.

The technology available at an exchange is also an important factor that can limit ADSL speed.

Premises in exchanges without 21CN technology should not expect speeds above 12Mbps. Premises

in exchanges without ADSL Max should not expect speeds above 1.5Mbps.

The chart below shows the range of throughput speeds that premises in the UK can expect to

receive 75% of the time. At the end of June 2013:

0.6% of premises (180k) could not typically access speeds above 0.125Mbps – technically

not broadband;


of 29

12.1% of premises (3.5m) could not typically access speeds above 2Mbps. In terms of actual

application, this means that they would not be able to get a good service from online

streaming services;

9.2% of premises (2.7m) can typically access speeds above 12Mbps. These are the premises

which are closest to their local telephone exchange.

Figure 10: the ADSL throughput speed profile of the UK. The chart shows the range of ADSL

speeds that users should expect to receive 75% of the time. Source – Point Topic


of 29

Figure 11: Average ADSL broadband speed – averaged by Census Output Area (COA)


of 29

Whilst only 12% of premises typically receive speeds of less than 2Mbps, as the map shows this

represents a considerable area of the UK.

The high speeds in northern areas of Scotland may surprise readers. The map shows the average

speed in a Census Output Area (COA). In Scotland COAs can be very large and cover very few

postcodes. Whilst these premises can access relatively fast speeds, it is certainly no true to say that

the whole area covered by the COA can access such high speeds.

6. Mapping the availability of superfast services

Up to this point, we have only discussed our methodology for establishing the coverage of ADSL

broadband providers. The rest of the document now focuses on broadband delivered over cable and

fibre, or next-generation access (NGA) technologies – so called because they can potentially deliver

much faster speeds to the consumer.

The geographical density of demand is by far the biggest single factor shaping the economics of

NGA. In simple terms:

The cost of providing NGA is roughly proportional to the size of the area covered;

The return is proportional to the number of customers served.

Areas with more people per square kilometre are therefore more likely to get NGA on a commercial

basis. Less dense areas will depend on some degree of subsidy or special assistance to get NGA.

A further factor is the variation in demand for services in different areas. There can be significant

variations in demand depending on the socio-economic mix within an area and the number and type

of businesses.

Point Topic uses the ‘demand density’ in an area to understand the roll-out of superfast services

within the UK.

Demand density = Expected broadband demand / size of area

We divide the whole of the UK into nine demand density bands. In the lowest band the potential

broadband demand is under three lines per square kilometre. In the highest band the potential

broadband demand is over 3,000 lines per square kilometre.

In November 2012, Ofcom published a database of superfast availability per postcode, reflecting the

market in June 2012. Using this data, we can then profile the coverage of superfast services by

density band. As expected, we see a clear skew towards the highest density bands, where nearly

75% of premises are able to access superfast services. In the lowest band, around 6% of premises are

able to access superfast services.

Clearly then, the density of demand is an important factor which determines superfast deployment,

and Point Topic uses this to estimate likely coverage in every UK postcode and to forecast future

patterns of deployment.


of 29

Figure 12: superfast coverage in each of Point Topic’s nine demand density bands. The results

show a clear skew towards areas with high demand density

7. Mapping the availability of cable services

To estimate cable coverage in the UK, we use a combination of publicly available inputs, proprietary

data and modelling.

Figure 13: Point Topic’s approach to mapping the coverage of Virgin Media’s cable services


of 29

Virgin Media’s franchise area is published, and they announced the total number of homes passed

by their network – 12.5m homes at the end of June 2013. We estimate that in total Virgin Media

passes 13.4m premises when including businesses. Point Topic then uses speed test data inputs

from Ofcom and ThinkBroadband to establish where within the franchise area Virgin Media is

providing services.

Using this approach, we are able to identify 6.5m premises passed by Virgin Media. It also allows us

to look at the typical deployment patterns of the operator, in terms of the types of premises that its

network targets.

Virgin Media specifically targets the higher (but not highest) density areas within its franchise area.

Using this insight, we are then able to estimate the likely distribution of the rest of its coverage.

Figure 14: Virgin Media coverage in each of Point Topic’s nine demand density bands. The

results show an even more pronounced skew towards areas with high demand

density, with the lowest density areas receiving very little coverage

This model has been shown to be 85% accurate when compared to actual deployment by Virgin

Media. The greatest inaccuracies occur when a postcode is only partially served by services.


of 29

8. Mapping the availability of FTTx services

8.1 BT’s Infinity service

BT Openreach regularly publishes which exchanges will be enabled for its fibre-based services. This

data is used by Point Topic to identify exchanges which have been enabled for fibre, will be enabled

for fibre and which technology is installed.

Having an upgraded exchange doesn’t necessarily mean that homes and businesses within the

exchange area will be able to receive superfast services. At the end of June 2013, BT announced that

its fibre-based network passed over 16 million premises – out of a total of 20.7 million premises in

enabled exchanges. This means that on average around 75% of premises are activated within the

enabled exchange.

To receive fibre broadband services, BT must upgrade both the local exchange and street side

cabinets. If your cabinet has not been upgraded, you won’t be able to access the services.

Since BT does not release full datasets on the location of its cabinets or the cabinets which are

enabled, it is very difficult to get an independent view on the coverage of BT’s superfast services

across the UK. BT has stated that the decision to upgrade a cabinet is based on the infrastructure

and the market within the area served by the cabinet.

Again, Point Topic’s approach to estimating the precise coverage of BT’s fibre-based network relies

on a combination of publicly available inputs, proprietary data and modelling.

BT Openreach publishes which exchanges will be enabled and when. Using Point Topic’s exchange

boundaries, we can then map the maximum potential coverage area of fibre based services.

We then use speed test data inputs from Ofcom and ThinkBroadband to establish where within the

exchange areas BT Openreach is providing services. This allows us to establish more than 50% of BT

Openreach’s postcode coverage with a high level of certainty.

Again this allocation can be used to establish BT Openreach’s typical deployment, in terms of the

density of areas targeted. We then use these typical deployment patterns to estimate where BT’s

remaining coverage is likely to be across the activated exchanges. Infill forms an important part of

BT’s fibre roll-out, and so the age of an activated exchange is also an important factor to consider.

We see very different patterns of deployment, depending on whether the network is competing

with cable services and whether it is a commercial or state-backed project.

8.2 Commercial roll-out outside the cable coverage area (UK profile)

When BT Openreach is not competing directly against Virgin Media, it appears to target areas of the

UK which are in the middle of the demand density profile.

Note that this profile excludes the Cornwall and Northern Ireland projects, which were state-funded

and exhibit a different demand profile.


of 29

Figure 15: BT’s FTTx coverage in each of Point Topic’s nine demand density bands – without

competition from Virgin Media. Source – Point Topic

8.3 Commercial roll-out within the cable coverage area (UK profile)

However, when BT Openreach’s network is competing directly with Virgin Media, it shows a much

stronger skew towards the areas with the highest density of demand and therefore revenue

potential.

Figure 16: BT’s FTTx coverage in each of Point Topic’s nine demand density bands – with

competition from Virgin Media. Source – Point Topic


of 29

8.4 State-funded roll-out

Cornwall and Northern Ireland continue to showcase BT’s approach to state-funded roll-out.

The deployment pattern is again very different still and highlights the requirement to serve areas

which would not receive funding on a commercial basis.

Figure 17: BT’s FTTx coverage in each of Point Topic’s nine demand density bands –with state

funding. Based on deployments in Northern Ireland and Cornwall. Source – Point

Topic

8.5 Using the density demand profiles

The Ofcom and ThinkBroadband data inputs allowed us to identify about 50% of BT’s fibre-based

coverage.

We use these density demand profiles to estimate how likely it is that other properties in the

exchange are activated, based on:

The expected the demand density in the area;

Whether BT is competing against Virgin Media;

Whether the postcode is in an exchange upgraded through BT’s commercial roll-out or a

state-funded programme;

How long the exchange has been fibre-enabled.

The last point is important. Infill forms an important part of BT’s fibre roll-out, and cabinets in an

exchange will continue to be upgraded after the exchange is upgraded.


of 29

8.6 Alterative network fibre providers

Point Topic provides the most detailed assessment of the coverage of alternative network or ‘altnet’

fibre providers available.

At the end of June 2013 we tracked 28 active altnet fibre suppliers across the UK. We estimate that

these providers covered around 3% of premises in the UK. Whilst coverage is currently limited, these

providers are expanding their coverage and offering the fastest speeds available in the UK at the

moment.

The following providers were tracked in Point Topic’s broadband availability dataset in June 2013:

AltNet name Top speed available (Mbps)

Target Group

Technology

Ask4 200 Residential FTTB

Atlas Communications 50 Both FTTC

Broadband for the Rural North (B4RN) 1000 Both FTTP

Call Flow Solutions 20 Both FTTC

CityFibre Holdings 1000 Both FTTP

Connexin - took over NextGenUs customers 50 Both FTTP

Cybermoor Networks Ltd 100 Both FTTP

Digital Region 70 Both FTTC/FTTP

Fibre Options 50 Both FTTP

Fizzy Living 50 Residential FTTB

Fujitsu PIA trial, service by Virgin Media 100 Both FTTC

Gigaclear 1000 Both FTTP

G-Ti, Baltic Business Quarter, Gateshead 100 Business FTTP

Hyperoptic 1000 Residential FTTB

Independent Fibre Networks Ltd (IFNL) 200 Both FTTP

Internal Communication Systems Ltd (ICS) 100 Both FTTP

Isrighthere 50 Both FTTB

KC (Kingston Communications) 350 Residential FTTP/FTTC/FTTB

Magdalene in partnership with Fluidata, NetAdmin and Hampshire County Council

40 Both FTTC

MediaCityUK 100 Residential FTTB

MS3 Communications 100 Business FTTP

NextGenUs - ceased trading 100 Both FTTP

Nottingham Council 100 Business FTTP

Rutland Telecom, a Gigaclear company 50 Both FTTP

Velocity1 owned by Magnet 100 Residential FTTB

Venus Business Communications 100 Residential FTTB

Virgin Media FTTP trial 100 Residential FTTP

West Whitlawburn Housing Co-operative Limited 100 Residential FTTP


of 29

9. UK technology coverage – end June 2013

8.1 Coverage by technology combination

Figure 18: premises covered by broadband

technology group

At the end of June 2013, we estimate that:

Nearly 46% of premises (13.4m) could

access cable services;

Over 55% (16.3m) could access FTTx

services;

Nearly 30% of premises could not access any

next generation broadband service;

Nearly 30% could access cable, FTTx or ADSL

services;

Less than 1% could not access any

broadband service offering speeds over

125kbps.

8.2 Top-speed available

The top speed available to an area depends on the technology that is available.

Figure 19: Top download speed available in the UK, % of premises. Source – Point Topic


of 29

At the end of June 2013, 0.1% of premises were able to access gigabit services from Gigaclear,

Hyperoptic, B4RN or CityFibre. 5.3% were able to access BT’s 330Mbps FTTP services or KC’s

350Mbps service. For 44% of premises cable is their fastest service available, and for 27% their

fastest service is BT’s 80Mbps FTTC service. The rest of the UK’s premises can only access copper

based broadband services.

Figure 20: Top bandwidth available by COA


of 29

10. The roll-out of next generation access services

Point Topic forecasts the likely roll-out of superfast services in the next five years. Our forecasts use

targets set by government, BT and the BDUK projects to estimate which postcodes are likely to get

coverage and when. It allows us to identify the areas that will still be left behind after the

commercial and state-funded roll-outs are complete, or the ‘final 10%’.

It is important to note that our new forecasts assume that the targets for roll-out will be met. This is

an area of considerable debate. The model does not attempt to foresee whether targets will be met

– instead it focuses on the areas that will be left behind once different levels of coverage are met.

10.1 UK superfast broadband targets and milestones

At the end of 2012, superfast services were available to 70% of households in the UK. This was one

of the published findings from Point Topic’s study for the European Commission – Broadband

Coverage in Europe in 2012.

BT has announced that it is on target to complete the commercial roll-out of its superfast services by

spring 2014. There is no indication at present that Virgin Media plans to extend its superfast

network.

In June 2013 the UK government announced a revised target to bring superfast broadband to 95% of

the country by 2017. This effectively replaced the previous aim of 90% superfast coverage by the

end of 2015.

Most of the BDUK programmes have now announced their coverage targets and the start and end

date of the roll-out programmes.

Point Topic has used these announcements to forecast the likely roll-out of superfast services within

the UK.

Whether targets will be met is an area of considerable debate. On 5 July 2013 the National Audit

Office (NAO) published a report saying that the Government programme to make superfast

broadband available to 90% of premises in the UK is expected to be delivered two years later than

initially planned. They also predicted that only nine out of 44 local projects were expected to reach

their original target of providing 90 per cent superfast coverage by May 2015.

The focus of this analysis is not to question whether the targets will be met on time. Rather it is to

focus on who will be left behind once targets are met, or the ‘final 10%’.

10.2 BT’s commercial roll-out of superfast broadband

In February 2013, BT announced the final 99 exchanges that will be upgraded to receive superfast

broadband services as part of the commercial roll-out of its services. Then in July 2013 the network

operator announced that nine new exchanges will be enabled for FTTC services, essentially

squeezing these in under its commercial rollout. In total, BT’s commercial roll-out plan is expected to


of 29

bring 80Mbps Fibre-to-the-Cabinet (FTTC) or 330Mbps Fibre-to-the-Premises (FTTP) services to over

2,000 exchanges by the spring of 2014.

At the end of June 2013, BT’s commercial roll-out had brought superfast broadband to over 16

million premises (homes and businesses). Its target for 2014 is to cover 19 million premises, or 66%

of all UK premises.

All exchanges within the commercial roll-out have now been announced through the BT Openreach

website, but no data is publically available on precisely which cabinets will be activated.

As we demonstrated in Section 8, BT’s deployment varies depending on whether it is facing

competition from Virgin Media. We use these deployment patterns to estimate the likely roll-out of

BT’s commercial deployment, assuming that they meet their target to deliver fibre-based services to

66% of premises by spring 2014.

10.3 BDUK state-funded roll-out of superfast broadband services

At the end of July 2013, 29 local authorities had signed contracts with BT. A further 15 local

authorities had yet to sign contracts.

The roll-out of state funded services will target different areas to commercial programmes. We use

the deployment profile seen in Northern Ireland and Cornwall to establish the likely roll-out of the

BDUK projects.

Our forecasts for the roll-out of state-funded services assume that:

The roll-out will follow a similar pattern to deployment in Northern Ireland and Cornwall;

The roll-out will not occur in areas already covered by Virgin Media;

BDUK projects will start and end on time and reach their coverage targets.

10.4 Predicting the roll-out of superfast services in the UK

Point Topic has created a model which looks at how likely it is that every postcode in the UK will get

superfast services. It looks at the likely roll-out of BT’s commercial services, as well as expected

BDUK investment.

Our new forecasts assume that the targets for roll-out will be met. This is an area of considerable

debate. The model does not attempt to foresee whether targets will be met – instead it focuses on

the areas that will be left behind once different levels of coverage are met.

The maps on the next pages show our forecast of superfast coverage at the end of 2012 and 2015.

Overall the UK is expected to have just over 90% coverage at the end of 2015 - Wales and the South

West will have the lowest coverage, with 83% and 84% superfast coverage respectively.


of 29

Figure 21: availability of superfast – end 2012

Figure 22: availability of superfast – end 2015


of 29

Mapping broadband in the UK Q2 2013 - Point...

Documents

Transcript of Mapping broadband in the UK Q2 2013 - Point...