CONCORDIA MARITIME AB (PUBL)€¦ · 2012-nov. 2012-dec. 2013-jan. 2013-feb. 2013-mar. 2013-apr....
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CONCORDIA MARITIME AB (PUBL) Remium September, 2015
Transcript of CONCORDIA MARITIME AB (PUBL)€¦ · 2012-nov. 2012-dec. 2013-jan. 2013-feb. 2013-mar. 2013-apr....
CONCORDIA MARITIME AB (PUBL) Remium September, 2015
Kim Ullman, CEO
Ola Helgesson, CFO
Income per type, spot
Average income CM
Average income spot market*
USD/per day No of
vessels Q2
2015 Q2
2014 6 months
2015 6 months
2014 Q2
2015 Q2
2014
Product tankers 9 21,800 10,700 20,900 13,300 22,000 9,200
Suezmax 1,5 38,800 17,200 41,800 25,200 46,900 16,000
*Clarksons MR Clean
TCE Benchmark
EBITDA per quarter
USD million Q2
2015 Q1
2015 Q4
2014 Q3
2014 Q2
2014 Q1
2014
P-MAX, time charter 0.9 1.3 0.4 0.4 1.6 2.6
P-MAX, spot 7.5 6.0 4.4 2.2 0.5 3.7
IMOIIMAX 1.3 – – – – –
Panamax – – – – 11.9 1.1
Suezmax 3.2 3.7 1.9 13 0.6 2.1
Admin. and others –1.1 –1.1 –1.4 –1.1 –1.4 –15
Total 11.8 9.9 5.3 2.8 13.2 8.0
Q2 & 1H 2015
NB. Fartygsförsäljning Q2 2014 – MSEK 80
EBITDA och resultat 2005–2014
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
MSEK
EBITDA Resultat före skatt
Återleverans av två Aframax
Leverans av Stena Paris
Leverans av tre P-MAX
Leverans av två P-MAX samt två
Panamax
Leverans av två P-MAX, inbefraktning
av två Aframax
Leverans av Stena Premium
Leverans av Stena Progress
Leverans av Stena Supreme
Inbefraktning av en Suezmax
Avyttring av två Panamax
Återleverans av två V-MAX
Utdelning och avkastning 2005-2014
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
SEK
Resultat per aktie, SEK Utdelning per aktie, SEK Direktavkastning, %
%
Totalavkastning 2013: 15% 2014: 10%
83% 92% 76% 50% 60% 56% 0% Utdelning i % av resultat efter skatt
– – –
Eget kapital och skulder 2005-2014
0
10
20
30
40
50
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
MSEK
Räntebärande skulder, MSEK Övriga skulder och avsättningar, MSEK
Eget kapital, MSEK Eget kapital per aktie, SEK
Per aktie
Aktiens kurs 31 dec: SEK 12,90
NAV per aktie 31 dec: SEK 25,80
Aktiekurs 16 sept: SEK 18
EK/aktie SEK 36 NAV/aktie SEK 31
Eget kapital per aktie
31 dec: SEK 32,90
Aktiens utveckling mot index 2014–2015
0
5
10
15
20
25
DATU
M20
14-0
1-10
2014
-01-
2420
14-0
2-07
2014
-02-
2120
14-0
3-07
2014
-03-
2120
14-0
4-04
2014
-04-
1720
14-0
5-02
2014
-05-
1620
14-0
5-30
2014
-06-
1320
14-0
6-27
2014
-07-
1120
14-0
7-25
2014
-08-
0820
14-0
8-22
2014
-09-
0520
14-0
9-19
2014
-10-
0320
14-1
0-17
2014
-10-
3120
14-1
1-14
2014
-11-
2820
14-1
2-12
2014
-12-
2320
15-0
1-09
2015
-01-
2320
15-0
2-06
2015
-02-
2020
15-0
3-06
2015
-03-
2020
15-0
4-02
2015
-04-
1720
15-0
4-30
2015
-05-
1520
15-0
5-29
2015
-06-
1220
15-0
6-26
2015
-07-
1020
15-0
7-24
2015
-08-
0720
15-0
8-21
2015
-09-
04
Concordia B OMX Stockholm_PI Oslo Shipping Index
SEK
CCOR-B
OMX Stockholm
OSLO Shipping index
Utdelning till aktieägarna
• Vi har en ambition att dela ut mer än policyns 10% av vinsten efter skatt
• 10 års historik exklusive engångsposter visar att bolaget delat ut 63% av vinsten
• Vill har en tydlig växtambition – flottan ska växa med minst 10% per år, över en business cycle
• Avvägningen mellan utdelning till aktieägarna och medel till löpande affärer och nya affärsinvesteringar blir styrelsens utdelningsförslag till årsstämman
Marknad
Tanker market projections
”Other”
Weather
Stock changes
Geo political
Trading pattern
Refinery Changes
Supply growth
Oil Consumption
World GDP
Unknowns/Jokers
Distances
Base
Freight Dynamics
Crude, ex Freight/bbl TCE Suezmax – Nigeria/Rotterdam Products, ex Freight/mt TCE MR – Rott – NY (gasoline)
WS50 $1.20/bbl WS100 $2.40/bbl
$17.000/d $48.000/d
WS100 $15/mt WS200 $30/mt
$5.000/d $23.000/d
2-5% of Cargo value
4-8% of Cargo value
Crude tanker spot rates 2012-2015 (Aug)
USD/Day
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
70 000
2012
-jan
2012
-feb
2012
-mar
2012
-apr
2012
-maj
2012
-jun
2012
-jul
2012
-aug
2012
-sep
2012
-okt
2012
-nov
2012
-dec
2013
-jan
2013
-feb
2013
-mar
2013
-apr
2013
-maj
2013
-jun
2013
-jul
2013
-aug
2013
-sep
2013
-okt
2013
-nov
2013
-dec
2014
-jan
2014
-feb
2014
-mar
2014
-apr
2014
-maj
2014
-jun
2014
-jul
2014
-aug
2014
-sep
2014
-okt
2014
-nov
2014
-dec
2015
-jan
2015
-feb
2015
-mar
2015
-apr
2015
-maj
2015
-jun
2015
-jul
2015
-aug
Average Aframax Long Run Historical Earnings $/Day Average VLCC Long Run Historical Earnings $/Day
Average Suezmax Long Run Historical Earnings $/Day
oversupply
New delayed refineries China +75m barrels Comm. storage Libya returns
European margins tops
European ref.margins Asian Stockbuilding weather Lower bunker cost
-US gasoline demand -New ref. India
OECD Total Oil Stocks at end of quarter
Crude tanker spot rates 2007-2015 (Aug)
USD/Day
0
50 000
100 000
150 000
200 000
250 000
2007
-feb
2007
-apr
2007
-jun
2007
-aug
2007
-okt
2007
-dec
2008
-feb
2008
-apr
2008
-jun
2008
-aug
2008
-okt
2008
-dec
2009
-feb
2009
-apr
2009
-jun
2009
-aug
2009
-okt
2009
-dec
2010
-feb
2010
-apr
2010
-jun
2010
-aug
2010
-okt
2010
-dec
2011
-feb
2011
-apr
2011
-jun
2011
-aug
2011
-okt
2011
-dec
2012
-feb
2012
-apr
2012
-jun
2012
-aug
2012
-okt
2012
-dec
2013
-feb
2013
-apr
2013
-jun
2013
-aug
2013
-okt
2013
-dec
2014
-feb
2014
-apr
2014
-jun
2014
-aug
2014
-okt
2014
-dec
2015
-feb
2015
-apr
2015
-jun
2015
-aug
Average Aframax Long Run Historical Earnings $/Day Average VLCC Long Run Historical Earnings $/Day
Average Suezmax Long Run Historical Earnings $/Day
”Inte sett sedan 2008”
Crude tanker spot rates 2000-2015 (Aug)
USD/Day
0
50 000
100 000
150 000
200 000
250 000
2000
-feb
2000
-maj
2000
-aug
2000
-nov
2001
-feb
2001
-maj
2001
-aug
2001
-nov
2002
-feb
2002
-maj
2002
-aug
2002
-nov
2003
-feb
2003
-maj
2003
-aug
2003
-nov
2004
-feb
2004
-maj
2004
-aug
2004
-nov
2005
-feb
2005
-maj
2005
-aug
2005
-nov
2006
-feb
2006
-maj
2006
-aug
2006
-nov
2007
-feb
2007
-maj
2007
-aug
2007
-nov
2008
-feb
2008
-maj
2008
-aug
2008
-nov
2009
-feb
2009
-maj
2009
-aug
2009
-nov
2010
-feb
2010
-maj
2010
-aug
2010
-nov
2011
-feb
2011
-maj
2011
-aug
2011
-nov
2012
-feb
2012
-maj
2012
-aug
2012
-nov
2013
-feb
2013
-maj
2013
-aug
2013
-nov
2014
-feb
2014
-maj
2014
-aug
2014
-nov
2015
-feb
2015
-maj
2015
-aug
Average Aframax Long Run Historical Earnings $/Day Average VLCC Long Run Historical Earnings $/Day
Average Suezmax Long Run Historical Earnings $/Day
supercycle
2008
Nu
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
70 000
Januari February March April May June July August September October November December
Average Suezmax Long Run Historical Earnings $/Day 2014 Average Suezmax Long Run Historical Earnings $/Day 2015 WAF-USAC 2015
Suezmax Earnings 2014 vs 2015 USD/Day
Sept 11th
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
YR2014 YR2015 TC2 2015
MR Earnings 2014 vs 2015 USD/Day
Sept 11th
Markets going forward
Growing Product Trade Increasing volumes, distances & triangulation opportunities
Gasoil
Gasoline/UMS
Naphtha
Jet
Freight can act as a deterrent of the arb-sensitive (and therefore freight dependent) trades.
LR2 Fleet in DPP % over total Fleet & Number of vessels
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
25.0%
27.5%
30.0%
32.5%
35.0%
37.5%
40.0%
42.5%
45.0%
47.5%
Mar
-10
Jul-1
0
Nov
-10
Mar
-11
Jul-1
1
Nov
-11
Mar
-12
Jul-1
2
Nov
-12
Mar
-13
Jul-1
3
Nov
-13
Mar
-14
Jul-1
4
Nov
-14
Mar
-15
Jul-1
5
$/Day% LR2s Trading Dirty (Left) Vessels DPP (Right Axis)
LR2 Fleet in DPP % over total Fleet & Number of vessels
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
9.00%
9.20%
9.40%
9.60%
9.80%
10.00%
10.20%
10.40%
10.60%
10.80%
11.00%
May
-12
Jul-1
2
Sep-
12
Nov-
12
Jan-
13
Mar
-13
May
-13
Jul-1
3
Sep-
13
Nov-
13
Jan-
14
Mar
-14
May
-14
Jul-1
4
Sep-
14
Nov-
14
Jan-
15
Mar
-15
May
-15
Jul-1
5
Sep-
15
% Trading DPP (left axis) Vessels DPP (Right Axis)
MR Fleet in DPP % over total Fleet & Number of vessels MR Fleet in DPP
% over total Fleet & Number of vessels
Bears vs Bulls and Wild Cards – NEXT 12 MONTHS Product Tankers | Compared to the past 12 months
Bullish Factors Bearish Factors Wild Cards
Growing exports from MEG/India
Oil prices/Bunkers
Growing import demand in Australia, LAM, West Africa
US crude exports – will it hurt domestic refineries?
Global Economy (e.g. China)
Growing China naphtha imports
End of peak gasoline Q4/Q1 weather – Refinery disruptions
Strong oil demand growth
Lower refinery margins
Government intervention/currency fluctuations affecting demand growth
High freight rates capping arb sensitive trades
Crude NBs taking products west
Low scrapping/slippage
More Russia product exports Dirty ups offsetting LR2
deliveries
Continued influx of products driven by crude oversupply/low prices/high runs
Product tanker
Prospects 2015-2017
*Volume + distance
Suezmax
Growth, % 2015 2016 2017
Demand* 3.0 3.0 3.0
Supply 1.7 3.7 3.0
Growth, % 2015 2016 2017
Demand* 5.0 5.0 5.0
Supply (net) 5.2 5.2 3.5
Utsikter 2015-2017
*Volym + distanser
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2015 2016 (2017)
Efterfrågan* Utbud
2015 2016 (2017)
Suezmaxtanker Produkttankers %
Concordia Maritime’s market review and view..
Ie, Concordia Maritime has a continued postivie view of the product tanker market
Review;
Good tanker markets in 2015 due low oil prices and very low growth of crude tankers An expected (and communicated) seasonal dip Aug/Oct but - ”Not as low and not as long”… View going forward, Specific - Q415/Q116 expected to bounce back to good markets across the board General - continued low oil prices will continue to drive world demand Geographical and strategic change in refinery situation still at force resulting in longer haul and cross trade Orderbook for product carriers in balance with demand growth
Fartyg
Light products
Now 15 Ships - A balanced fleet and employement strategy
P-MAX Suezmax IMOIIMAX
Ship and cargo type
Market
Partner
6 ships on nische trade 3 ships on contract
Stena Weco,
2 TC 2 spot = 4 niche pool
Concordia Maritime/ Stena Bulk Pool
Spot - pooling
Stena Sonangol Suezmax Pool
Spot, niche contract and IMOIIMAX pooling
Stena Weco
Heavy products Light products, easy chemicals and vegetable oils
Crude oil
(2 x 50% charter in with Stena Bulk)
Australian product import development
P-MAX – focus on nisch, Australia/New Zeeland
• Closure of 4 refineries last 5 years • 40-60 MR Imports per month • 30-40 ports (product import)
Newly renewed major oil Co. • Highest markets in the East
• Cargo cap. Utilization ~90%
• 3 ships on contract to a major oil
company (2 ships till Sep 2016, 1 to March 2016)
• Contract form - consequtive
voyage charter – market related
Contract illustration
Contract Market related
P-MAX – focus on nische, West Africa
WAF (Nigeria/Togo/Benin/Ivory Coast)
- Fast growing continent (Africa)
- Very bad/no refineries
- Clean import – ca 50 MR/month
- P-MAX, full cargo (50.000)
- Draft ports in WAF – but STS
- Cargo capacity utilization 95-100%
- Premium earnings to standard MR trade
Stena Image´s first succesful 6 voyages
Voy 1 Load ports: 3 ports Indonesia Cargo: 3 diff grades palm oil/coconut oil Discharge ports: 3 ports Spain Voy 2 Load port: 1 port Italy Cargo: Gasoline Discharge port: Gizan (R Sea/Saudi Arabia) Voy 3 Load port: Yanbu (R Sea/Saudi Arabia) Cargo: Chemicals Discharge port: Fujairah (UAE) Voy 4 Loadport: Jubail Saudi Arabia Cargo: Gasoline Discharge port: Fujairah Voy 5 Loadport: Jebel Ali Saudi Arabia Cargo: Gasoline Discharge port: Fujairah Voy 6 Loadport: W.C India Cargo: Jet fuel/Gasoline Discharge: Australia
Concordia Maritime’s next IMOIIMAX comes in October…
Fokus framåt
Fler/längre charter-kontrakt
Fortsatt hög kvalitet i
operationen
Fler nischtrader
Köp och försäljning av fartyg
Tvist kring Stena Primorsk Högre synlighet Implementera
IMOIIMAX
• 2015 – marknaden har vänt! • 72 MSEK vinst 1H • Säsongsmässig nedgång i Q3 • Viktiga niche trader – Australia, New Zeeland and West
Africa • Högre EBIDTA potential i 2015 genom
• Niche trader • Högre marknader generellt • Två ytterligare Suezmax positioner • Två IMO2MAX leveranser
• Full fokus och leverans på våra utmaningar!
So,
Stena Image naming cermony
