Making Molehills of Mountains

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Title: Making Molehills of Mountains Abstract:

We are already designing integrated circuits with more than a Billion transistors; and despite the faltering steps of Moore's law, we will be designing more than 10 times that within the next 5yrs. Yet even using High Level Description Languages (HDLs) with Synthesis, designer productivity still only delivers the low thousands of gates per day. How does industry ever deliver a complete design in a reasonable time-frame today? The answer is Reuse and Hierarchy. You don't design everything from scratch, but strive to use as much as possible of 'the last' design in the next. If you can hit 99%, then the 1B transistor opportunity, becomes a 10M transistor challenge ... still a large number, but much more manageable. Reuse is an indispensible part of product design today, yet seldom gets the academic attention it deserves. This talk will examine reuse today and its role in the pragmatic delivery of Electronic System products in the near and not-so-near future.

1hr talk (Panel discussion later)

Context The Postgraduate Conference for Computing: Applications and Theory (PCCAT) is intended to give postgraduate students from

the South West of the UK a flavour of presenting their research in a conference environment.

The conference is held annually at a university in the South West, and is organised by postgraduate students. It has so far been held twice, at the University of Exeter in 2010 and 2011, and will be held in 2012 at the University of Plymouth.

http://www.pccat.ex.ac.uk/

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Prof. Ian Phillips Principal Staff Eng’r,

ARM Ltd [email protected]

Visiting Prof. at ...

Contribution to Industry Award 2008

PCCAT Conference Uo.Plymouth

6jun12

1v1

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Our 21c World ... Statistics ... Population ~7,000,000,000 Growth rate ~2%pa Life expectancy 60-80yr ... Mission: Celebrity, Leisure

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Engineering in the UK ...

... Engineering made the world we live in; yet most people can’t see it !

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The Pre-Engineered World (2,500 BC - 800 AD.)

World Stats ... Population ~100K ->1M (Outnumbered!) Growth rate ~0.1%pa Life expectancy 30-40yr ... Mission: Survive and Grow

Technology ... Low stone wall for a base, Wooden poles and rafters. Thatch, turf, or hides for roof. Timber split using 'wedges Sharp stones for cutting

... 3,500yrs of: “If it was good enough for my father’s, father’s, father’s, father; its good enough for me!”

... Engineering brought mankind out of the mud-hut !

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Chronology of Science / Engineering Cro-Magnon Man (Us!) – 35,000 yr ago ‘Developed’ from Homo-Sapien (Wise Human) 100,000 yr ago Mission: Survive Nature (1,000 generations)

The Philosophers – 2,500-1,000 yr ago Pythagoras, Socrates, Plato, Aristotle, Archimedes, ... Mission: Understanding Nature

The Scientists – 1,000-500 yrs ago Galileo, Descartes, (1000 ad) Electricity - William Gilbert (1600ad) Mission: Manipulation of Nature

The Engineers – 260 yrs ago Industrial Revolution (1750: 8 gen’n) Year 0: Science Meets Exploitation Mission: Exploitation of Nature

... Economic (and Population) Explosion

Universe – 13.6Byr Earth – 4.5Byr

Thomas Telford’s Iron Bridge (1778), Ironbridge, UK

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The Industrial Revolution (1750) Exploitation of Nature Unleashing the Power of Science, by delivering it in ways that satisfied a

Volume Need ... We now call this Business. It began in the United Kingdom, then spread throughout Europe, North

America, and eventually the world. Major changes in agriculture, manufacturing, mining, transportation, and

technology Mechanisation of the textile industries, Development of iron-making techniques Trade expansion through canals, improved roads and railways.[5] Steam power, water wheels and powered machinery

Profound effect on socio-economic and cultural conditions

... For the first time in history (13.6Byr), the living standards of the masses of ordinary people underwent sustained growth

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Our 21c World is ... Engineered Science ... Using a universal

Monetary System And significant Reuse of

Knowledge and Know-How

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Science enables us to do ... It is pretty clever to convert

a Stone into a Phone ... But we know it’s not Magic!

Its just the measure of what humans can achieve by reusing the ingenuity of our predecessors!

“Reuse” Is the Elephant in the Room; The Cinderella at the Ball!

“If I have seen further it is by standing on ye sholders

of Giants” Isaac Newton 1676

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The Threshold of Magic 1: Clarke: Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.

Everybody has a threshold, beyond which observed Functionality is Indistinguishable From Magic1! Chemical Systems Biological Systems Economic Systems Electronic Systems

The Incandescent Light: is the for most non-scientific, but well educated people!

... Not Understand Technology is not a crime!

... The crime is not realising that most people don’t, when you are the one to suffer as a consequence!

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Antikythera c87BC ... Planet Motion Computer

See: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L1CuR29OajI

Mechanical Technology

• Inventor: Hipparchos (c.190 BC – c.120 BC). Ancient Greek Astronomer, Philosopher and Mathematician.

• Single-Task, Continuous Time, Analogue Mechanical Computing (With backlash!)

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Computer: A Machine for Computing ... Computing ... ... A general term for algebraic manipulation of data ...

... State and Time are normally factors in this.

It can include phenomena ranging from human thinking to calculations with a narrower meaning. Wikipedia

Usually used it to exercise analogies (models) of real-world situations; Frequently in real-time.

... No mention of Implementation Technology in this!

y=F(x,t,s) Numerated Phenomena

IN (x)

Processed Data/ Information

OUT (y)

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Orrery c1700 ... Planet Motion Computer

• Inventor: George Graham (1674-1751). English Clock-Maker. • Single-Task, Continuous Time, Analogue Mechanical Computing (With backlash!)


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Babbage's Difference Engine 1837

The difference engine consists of a number of columns, numbered from 1 to N. Each column is able to store one decimal number. The only operation the engine can do is add the value of a column n + 1 to column n to produce the new value of n. Column N can only store a constant, column 1 displays (and possibly prints) the value of the calculation on the current iteration.

Computer for Calculating Tables: A Basic ALU Engine

(Re)construction c2000


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“Enigma” c1940

Data Encryption/Decryption Computer


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“Colossus” 1944

Code-Breaking Computer: A Data Processor

Valve/Mechanical Technology

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“Baby” 1947 (Reconstruction)

General Purpose, Quantised Time and Data, (Digital) Electronic Computing

Valve/Software Technology

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Analogue Computer – AKAT c1960

General Purpose, Continuous Time, Approximate (Analogue) Electronic Computing

Transistor Technology

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The Pinnacle of Computing Technology? Integrated Circuit

& Software Technology

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... Or the Smart Gadget ... Electronic System

Technology

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Or the Cloud ...? Electronic System

Technology

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Evolution of Radio

Bush Radio 7 Transistors

1 Diode

c1960

Evoke DAB Radio 100 M Transistors

2-3 Embedded Processors

c2005

BTH Crystal Set

1 Diode

c1925

Tele-Verta Radio 4 Valves

1 Rectifier Valve

c1945

Ian’s ‘Span’

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Vrf=Vi*100

Vlo=Cos(t*1^6)

Vi

Vrf

Vif=Vrf*Vlo

Vlo

Vif

Vro='Bandpass'(Vif*1000)

Vro

Radio as Computation ...

Single-Task, Continuous Time, Approximate (Analogue) Electronic Computing

Valve Technology Transistor Technology

Integrated Circuit Technology

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Computing is

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Its Products that Make Money 21c Businesses have to be Selling things that People (End-Customers) want to buy. Globalisation makes them Focus on Core Competencies Objective: Outsource ‘everything else’

Customers, Competition, Operations and Investors are Global Nationality: has little meaning

Business needs End-Customers buy Functionality not Technology Technologies enable Product Options ..but..

Business-Models make Money

New Products are Design is a Cost/Risk to be Minimised Technology (HW, SW, Mechanics, Optics, etc) is (just) a

means to a Product end! New Technology increases Cost/Risk ... But not always Value

... Reuse Minimises the Risk and Cost of deploying any Technology

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Manipulating Atomic Properties ... Electronic Technology is ..

...The Most Exciting thing mankind has created in our 35kyr history!

... And it has all happened within the span of one life-time!

Early Electronics The First Transistor (1947) Modern Transistor

~70 yrs

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Moore’s Law: c1965 “Moore's Law” was coined by Carver Mead in 1970, from Gordon

Moore's article in Electronics Magazine 19 April 1965 "Cramming more components onto integrated circuits“.

“The complexity for minimum component costs has increased at a rate of roughly a factor of two per year ... Certainly over the short term this rate can be expected to continue, if not to increase. Over the longer term, the rate of increase is a bit more uncertain, although there is no reason to believe it will not remain nearly constant for at least 10 years. That means by 1975, the number of components per integrated circuit for minimum cost will be 65,000. I believe that such a large circuit can be built on a single wafer”

In 1965 he was designing ICs with ~50 transistors! Moore’s Law has held for ~50 years ... Taking us to 100B transistor ICs

Gordon Moore, Founder of Intel

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Moore’s Law ... 10nm

100nm

1um

10um

100um

Appr

oxim

ate

Proc

ess

Geo

met

ry

ITRS’99

Tran

sist

ors/

Chi

p (M

)

Tran

sist

or/P

M (K

)

X

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Growing opinion that 14 or 7nm will be the smallest yieldable node ... Ever!

All Exponentials Must End ... 130nm

90nm

30nm

14nm

7nm

Just 3-4 gen. (5-8yr) to the end of Planar Scaling

... can get into the last of the of planar chips! Its the end-of-the-road for

‘promising technologies’ ! Clean-Sheet Synthesis Scalable Processor Arrays Formal Design Top-Down Design

Only things on the drawing board today ...

...The future lies with Hybrid, Architectures

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Growing opinion that 14 or 7nm will be the smallest yieldable node ... Ever!

All Exponentials Must End ... 130nm

90nm

30nm

14nm

7nm

Just 3-4 gen. (5-8yr) to the end of Planar Scaling

... can get into the last of the of planar chips! Its the end-of-the-road for

‘promising technologies’ ! Clean-Sheet Synthesis Scalable Processor Arrays Formal Design Top-Down Design

Only things on the drawing board today ...

...The future lies with Hybrid, Architectures

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… 3D will Maintain the Prediction!

3x Production

4x Transfer to Production

10x Sampling

3 stack 1.2 mm

4 stack 1.4 mm

8 stack 1.6 mm

... This is a disconnect for Moore’s Silicon Scaling Law, but not for his ‘density’ predictions!

Die Stacking today

Die-Integration tomorrow 8x Sampling

10 stack 1.6 mm Active Carrier

DRAM - 20nm Si FIN-MOS CPU- 90nm Si CMOS RF - 300nm GaAs PV - 500nm Ge

Hybrid Technology

300nm Si CMOS

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Electronic era:

1975-2005 System era:

2003-2030

Cascade of Technologies supporting Functional growth ...

... It Started with Wood ⇒ Stone ⇒ Bronze ⇒ Iron

Moore's Real Law: x2 Functionality Every 18mth! Fu

nctio

nal D

ensi

ty (u

nits

)

1960 1980 2000 2020

102

1010

106

1012

100

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Moore’s Productivity Law ... 10nm

100nm

1um

10um

100um

Appr

oxim

ate

Proc

ess

Geo

met

ry

ITRS’99

Tran

sist

ors/

Chi

p (M

)

Tran

sist

or/P

M (K

)

2x in 18mth

16% in 18mth

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... With Supporting

Methodology!

(Incl. Software)

Reuse Happened ! <1990 chip design was entire ... Moore’s Law was handled by ever Bigger Teams and ever Faster Tools With Improved Productivity through HDL and Synthesis ... I was a chip designer in 1975; and did it all, myself, in 3mth (1k gates!)

>1995 reuse quietly entered the picture ... Circuit Blocks CPUs (and Software) External IP Up-Integration Chip Reuse (ASSP) ... Delivering Productivity, Quality and Reliability

... Birth of HW/SW IP Companies (eg ARM)

... But brought about Commoditisation of Silicon (and FABs) !

Where did the Productivity Gap go?

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How Much Reuse Do We Do? Mobile Products have 500m gate SoCs / 500m lines of code Doubling every 18mth Designer Productivity: is just 100-1000 Gates(Lines)/day That is tested, verified, incorporated gates/lines That’s 2,500-25,000 p.yrs to design! (Un-Resourceable)

Typically ‘Designs’ have just 50-100 p.yr available ... That’s just ~0.5% New (>99% Reuse!) Not Viable to do a clean-sheet product design (Nor has been since ~1995)

The core HW/SW is only a part of a Product There’s all of the other Components and Sub-Systems There’s the IO systems (RF, Audio, Optical, Geo-spatial, Temporal) There’s the Mechanical There’s the Reproduction (Factory) There's the Business Model (Cash-flow, Distribution, Legal) There’s the Support (Repair, Installation, Maintenance, Replacement)

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How Much Reuse Do We Need? Design Tools (across all Product Disciplines) underpin this ... Reuse of Modules and Components Reuse of Existing Code and Circuits Sharing Methodology Sharing Architecture Creating Tools to Accelerate Methodology and Repeatability Design For “x” (DFx) is Design For up-stream Deployment Includes DFR (Design For Reuse)

A significant part is (and will remain) Knowledge based ... The Designer has done similar work before The Team has Collective experience The Company has experience and a customer base The nature of the Design Engineering Role is ... To create Order out of Chaos To apply state-of-the-art and knowledge; to create a Producible Product

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The Technology in an iConic Product ...

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... Cool Design

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... Design happens at Many Levels ...

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Down 1-Level: Modules

Inside the Case ...

iPhone 4's vibrator motor. rear-facing 5 MP camera with 720p video at 30 FPS, tap to focus feature, and LED flash.

Source ... http://www.ifixit.com

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Inside the Case ...


The Control Board.

Down 1-Level: Modules

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Inside The Control Board (b-side)


Down 2-Levels: Sub-Assemblies Visible Design-Team Members ...

Samsung (flash memory) - (ARM Partner) Cirrus Logic (audio codec) - (ARM Partner) AKM (Magnetic Sensor) Texas Instruments (Touch Screen Controller and mobile DDR) - (ARM Partner)

Invisible Design-Team Members ... Software Tools, OS & Drivers, GSM Security; Graphics, Video and Sound ... Manufacturing, Assembly, Test, Certification ...

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Inside The Control Board (a-side)

GPS

Bluetooth, EDR &FM


Down 2-Levels: Sub-Assemblies Visible Design-Team Members... A4 Processor, specified by Apple, designed and manufactured by Samsung ...

The central unit that provides the iPhone 4 with its GP computing power. Reported to contain ARM A8 600 MHz CPU (other ARM CPUs and IP)

ST-Micro (3 axis gyroscope) - (ARM Partner) Broadcom (Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, and GPS) - (ARM Partner) Skyworks (GSM) Triquint (GSM PA) Infineon (GSM Transceiver) - (ARM Partner)

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The A4 SIP Package (Cross-section)

Down 3-Levels: IC Packaging The processor is the centre rectangle. The silver circles beneath it are solder balls. Two rectangles above are RAM die, offset to make room for the wirebonds.

Putting the RAM close to the processor reduces latency, making RAM faster and cuts power. Unknown Mfr (Memory) Samsung/ARM (Processor) Unknown (SIP Technology)


Processor SOC Die

2 Memory Dies

Glue

Memory ‘Package’

4-Layer Platform Package’

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Lots and Lots of Designers ...

159 Tier-1 Suppliers ... Thousands of Design Engineers 10’s of thousands of Engineers Globally

... Hundreds more Tier-2 suppliers (Including ARM)

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Putting ‘Smart’ into Electronic Systems …

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Multiplier

Instruction Decoder

Address Incrementer

nRESET ABORT

nIRQ nFIQ

WRITE SIZE[1:0]

LOCK

CPnCPI CPA CPB

CLKEN CLK

CPnOPC

CFGBIGEND

TRANS

RDATA[31:0]

Barrel Shifter

32 Bit ALU Write Data Register

Address Register

Register Bank

ADDR[31:0]

and

Control Logic

A B u s

A L U B u s

P C

PC Update

Decode Stage

Instruction Decompression

Incrementer

Read Data Register

WDATA[31:0]

PROT

Scan Debug Control

B B u s

The ARM RISC-Processor Core

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The ‘Lego-Brick’ Chip-Design Concept

ARM

ARM

ARM

ARM

ARM

ARM

nVidea Tegra3

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Users require a pocket ‘Super-Computer’ ... Silicon Technology Provides a few-Billion raw transistors ... ARM’s IP makes it Practical to utilise them ...

More and More Systems on a Chip

• 10 Programmable Processors • 4 x A9 Processors (2x2): • 4 x MALI 400 Fragment Proc: • 1 x MALI 400 Vertex Proc. • 1 x MALI Video CoDec • Software Stacks, OS’s and

Design Tools/ • ARM Technology gives

chip/system designers a good start. Design Reuse ...

• Improves Productivity • Improves TTM • Improves Quality/Certainty

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Processor IP – Design of the brain of the chip

ARM Technology Electronic System products incorporate

more and more ARM technology –Processor, Multimedia and Software IP

Physical IP – Design of the building blocks of the chip

... 800 Partners; 600 Licences in 200 Companies ... Millions of developers; Billions of users

Software & Development tools

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1990 - "A barn in Cambridge" 12 engineers, in Cambridge No Revenue, No Patents Cash from Apple & VLSI

Spin-out of Acorn UK ... BBC Computers in Schools (1981) Roots in Uo.Cambridge (c1975)

... A Dream to become the Global Standard for Embedded CPUs

2012 - "The worlds leading IP Product" Powering >90% of the Smart Electronic Systems in the world 7B CPUs shipped in 2011 ... Growth ~25%pa; 40B total (>50x all PCs!)

FTSE 100 company: Revenue ~£491M, PBT ~37%, R&D ~30% Cambridge HQ: 25 offices/labs 2000 people ww (850 in the UK) 95% revenue is foreign earnings

The World’s Favourite IP Provider

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An Irresistible Societal Trend ...

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Uni

ts

1M

10M Mainframe

Mini

1st Era

100M

1 Billion PC

Desktop Internet

2nd Era

100 Billion The Internet of Things

10 Billion Mobile Internet

Cost

Electronic Systems ... + Get Smarter + Get Smaller/Cheaper + Get Pervasive + Talk to One Another + Need no Attention + Work Better

... Cease To Be Noticed !

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Expectations of Tomorrow’s Consumer Natural, Intuitive User

Interfaces

Ultra High Resolutions Displays

Personalized Experience

Standout Battery Life

Continuous Connectivity

“Always On, Always Connected”

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High Resolution Natural Displays

Ultra Thin and Flexible Displays

High resolution, interactive wall size displays

Augmented reality and visual computing

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Natural Speech Recognition

Siri – Best in class today… …but multi language and accents are still challenging

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Heterogeneous Computing Multi-core solutions

Close coupling of different types of processors cores

Shared memory architecture

Match task to most efficient core

Augmented Reality Image Recognition/Processing Advanced Gaming User Interface

big.LITTLE Processing

Uses the right processor for the right job

Redefining the efficiency/performance trade-off

70% energy savings on common workloads

Flexible and transparent to apps big LITTLE

Cortex-A15 MPCore

L2 Cache

CPU

Cortex-A7 MPCore

L2 Cache

CCI-400 Coherent Interconnect

CPU CPU CPU

Interrupt Control “Demanding tasks” “Always on, always connected tasks”

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2015 Mobile Device Trends

Intuitive and Natural User Interfaces

More pixels, greater fidelity

Leading Innovation in Computing Devices

Continued Innovation on Energy Efficiency

Protection of your Data

Always on, Always Connected

Delivered through a single Architecture and a broad partnership

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Innovation & Efficiency Underpins It All

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ARM – Architecture for the Digital World

1998 2012 2020

30+ billion chips to date

150+ billion chips cumulative in 2020

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Viewing The Mountain ... A single 40nm SoC can have a Billion or more Gates on it

Embedded Products will embody a Billion Lines of Code

All Multi-level State Machines are too complex to simulate

Imperfection happens: Impacting Reliability and Robustness

Nobody writes HDL/Code without errors

All Systems are too complex to Test

What happens after 20nm?

Design teams are finite

Market windows close

Quality is Qualitative

Power Dissipation!

2nd is for Losers

Productivity!

...

Notate

Quantify

Automate

Consolidate

Learn Generic Lessons

Think-out of Consequences

... Build Shoulders for others to Stand On

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The 21C will be what YOU Make It ...

“Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic! Arthur C. Clarke.

Thankyou for

Listening

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Reading & References

Electronics 2015: Making a Visible Difference (Referred) DTI EIGT Report, HMG URN 04/1812, 2004.

Engineering UK 2009 (and 2011): The state of engineering (Referred) EngineeringUK (ex Engineering Council), 2009 and 2011.

The Innovator's Dilemma: When New Technologies Cause Great Firms to Fail (Disruptive Tech.) by Clayton M. Christensen: HBS Press, 1997

Open Innovation: The New Imperative for Creating and Profiting from Technology (Research in 21C) by Henry William Chesbrough : HBS Press, 2003

The World Is Flat (Globalisation) by Thomas L. Friedman: Penguin, 2005

Staying Power (Business) by Michael Cusumano: Oxford, 2010

A Short History of Nearly Everything (A different view on what we know) by Bill Bryson: Black Swan, 2003

The Voyages of the Beagle (Scientific Observation) – Free on-line By Charles Darwin,1860

An Essay on the Principles of Population (Natural Competition) – Free on-line By Thomas Malthus,1789

Making Molehills of Mountains

Technology

Transcript of Making Molehills of Mountains