M&A and the Media - Tulane University Law School. 1A. MA and the... · M&A and the Media Tulane...
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M&A and the MediaTulane University Law School 29th Annual Corporate Law Institute
March 31, 2017
2TULANE CORPORATE LAW INSTITUTE More at www.brunswickgroup.com
Last year’s predictions rang true…The deal community was right about Trump
Brunswick M&A Survey 2016
If elected, which U.S. presidential candidate
would be the best outcome for dealmakingand corporate interests?
“We'll see if the survey respondents are right: Is the U.S. going to turn away these Chinese buyers? Are tax-inversion deals really going away? And if Donald Trump is our next commander in chief, will dealmakers cheer?”
– March 16, 2016
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10th Annual Brunswick M&A SurveyTrump Bump Expected for North American M&A in 2017
Increase46%
Stay the same29%
Decrease25%
M&A outlook more bullish in 2017 than 2016…
Positive49%
Negative30%
Neutral21%
…with nearly half expecting the Trump administration to be positive for M&A…
Domestic transactions
81%
Inbound8%
Outbound9%
… but fewer cross-border deals expected in 2017
What types of deals do you expect to drive the M&A market in 2017?
What do you expect the overall impact of the Trump administration will be on M&A and deal-making?
Compared to the level of deal activity in 2016, do you expect the level of M&A will increase, decrease or stay the same in 2017?
…and antitrust scrutiny expected to decrease…
Increase11%
Decrease71%
Stay the same19%
Compared to 2016 do you expect the level of antitrust scrutiny for deals to increase, decrease or stay the same in 2017?
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10th Annual Brunswick M&A SurveyDealmaking under the Trump administration
Anticipated changes affecting M&A activity in 2017
58%
52%
51%
29%
28%
27%
22%
13%
9%
Corporate tax reform
Antitrust policy (DOJ /FTC appointments)
Repatriation offoreign/offshore cash
Presidential scrutiny("Activist-in-chief"�)
Trade agreementrenegotiations
Foreign investmentpolicies (CFIUS)
Border adjustment tax
Dodd Frank revisions
Tax inversion rules
Top considerations for companies making an M&A decision
68%
60%
39%
39%
31%
27%
8%
Commitments toinvesting in the US
Job creation
Antitrust concerns
Public scrutiny
Presidential reaction
Relationship withadministration
Other
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M&A and the Media
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Media plays a critical role —and it has only become more fractured
Core Players
Niche & Newer Players Key Commentators
Social Media
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Alex Sherman@sherman49495,735 followersBloomberg deals reporter based in NY.
Dave [email protected] followersI cover activist investors for WSJ. The activists that fight
Andrew Ross Sorkin@andrewrsorkin702K followers @NYTimes Columnist/Editor & @CNBC Squawk Box Co-Anchor. Author.
David Faber@davidfaber117K followers30 years a biz journalist.
M&A coverage increasingly plays out on social media
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Reporters can generate buzz on Twitter
Steve Cohen
Bill Ackman
Who is Bobby Axelrod?
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… and M&A podcasts tooAlex Sherman’s Deal of the Week: Rob and Andy Kindler Telling Jokes
“I struggled, but I started at a great time and it always
felt like things were moving forward with Rob’s
financial support.”
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Laying the Groundwork
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Take a 360° view to identify influential supporters and detractors – and their connections
Identify the issues that are of critical importance to the success of the deal and to stakeholders
Uncover the “persuadables” who could help carry your message
Tailor content to respond to stakeholders’ concerns
All stakeholders matter – get the story right with every constituent group
Supply Chain Partners
Regulatory
Investors
Activists
Clients
Media
Employees
Competitors
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Getting the messaging right on announcement day is critical to deal success
We take messaging and turn it into creative content that dimensionalizes the M&A story. Using a comprehensive digital and social media strategy, this content is rolled out simultaneously to all audiences at the launch of a transaction.
Content is tailored for social platforms and audience behaviors (e.g., mobile, search)
Demonstrate strategic rationale, deal potential and opportunities for value creation
Develop a clear, compelling investment case
Media have major influence over investors’ perceptions – and reality –of transactions
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DEVELOP THE INVESTMENT
STORY
MATERIALS PREPARATION
DEAL ANNOUNCEMENT
REGULATORY APPROVALS
(HSR, CFIUS)
SHAREHOLDERAPPROVAL
DEAL CLOSING
DAY ONE &INTEGRATION
NEW COMBINED COMPANY
D EA L R U MOR S
LEA K
Critical communications milestones
Effective M&A communications is a highly coordinated effort between the advisors and client
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Sometimes the process is straightforward…
Shareholder Vote
Deal Closing
Regulatory Approval
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Restaurant Brands International Acquires Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen Acquisition timeline: February – March 2017
February 21:Announcement
February 27:Tender Offer Launches
March 7: HSR Approval
March 24:Tender Offer Closes
March 27: Deal Closes
February 13:Deal Leaks
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…Sometimes it is much more complexOvercoming global regulatory approvals to get to closing in less than a year
4Pre-conditional
markets
25Additional regulatory
jurisdictions
29Markets across SIX continents
Pre-conditional markets
Non pre-conditional markets likely requiring merger control
Other markets
U.S Senate Hearing
Divestiture of global Miller brand to Molson Coors
Sale of Peroni & Grolsch to Asahi
Divestiture of SABMiller’s assets in Central & Eastern Europe
+ =
Listing on the JSE
Sale of Snow Breweries to China Resources Beer Company
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Investors are Using Digital and Social
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Driving investment actionDigital media is now shaping investment behavior for nearly all investors
QUESTION: Have you ever viewed the following, which has prompted you to investigate an issue further for your work? Have you ever made an investment decision or a recommendation after initially sourcing information from the following, which then led you to conduct additional research?
96%Have used social media to investigate an issue about a company
78%Have made an investment decision or recommendation based on information seen on social media
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How investors use digital mediaFollowing market trends and corporate strategy are the main benefits for investors
QUESTION: What are the reasons you use digital media platforms to investigate an issue further for your work?
79%
74%
73%
63%
43%
40%
22%
15%
To learn more about a specific industry or sector
To keep up to date with a particular company that I follow
To follow market moving news
To get more information about a company's strategy
To learn what specific CEOs are saying
To learn what activist investors are saying
To network with other investors
To get tips on companies to invest in
To follow the market
To understand corporate strategy
To connect with peers
© Brunswick Insight 2017
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Most useful sources of informationSearch engines and blogs are the primary tools for investigation and decisions
Leading Sources for Investors
Mid-Tier Source for Investors
Specialty Sources
Search Engines
% to investigate an issue
Blogs
Presentation Sharing
Video
Chinese Social Media*
% to make an investment decisionDigital Media Sources
81%
72%
46%
39%
34%
33%
28%
28%
Message Boards
61%
46%
15%
20%
16%
14%
17%
14%
NA
+13
NA
+11
+1
+10
+5
NA
NA
+17
NA
+7
-1
+5
0
NA
Change since 2015
Change since 2015
*Percentages shown only among investors working in Asia
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So What Does that Mean for M&A Comms?
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Bayer/MonsantoLaunching a major cross-border transaction with a comprehensive digital strategy
Google helps users exploreand learnmore, and search engine optimization (SEO)
can direct users to deal sitesLinkedIn is a premier content platform for professionals to
learnmore about current deals
Twitter drives the newscycle
Digital Advertising
Placing content where shareholders and investors are most likely to engage
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Bayer/MonsantoRolling out deal messages simultaneously to the right global audiences
6.45MMVideo views
558.6MMTimes content
was seen
1.12MMClicks to our
content
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Thursday, October 20th
3:30 pm Bloomberg reports AT&T and Time Warner Inc. said to discuss idea of takeover
4:30 pm Hollywood Reporter cites a source who said AT&T might have to offer as much as $100 billion
Friday, October 21st
9:30 am David Faber reports that AT&T and Time Warner have “held talks” over “at least one key meeting”
11:00 am WSJ reports AT&T and Time Warner are in advanced talks and a deal could happen as early as that weekend
11:45 am David Faber confirms WSJ’s report of advanced talks based on conversations with his sources
5:30 pm Bloomberg reports deal could be valued at $110/share in cash and stock, to be announced as soon as Monday
6:00 pm Reuters reports AT&T and Time Warner reached agreement on most terms, to announce as early as Sunday
Saturday, October 22nd
1:30 pm Bloomberg reports boards expected to meet Saturday to approve deal for more than $80 billion, and could announce as early as Saturday evening
1:45 pm WSJ reports deal likely to be announced Saturday night, for between $105 and $110
4:15 pm Bloomberg reports deal terms at $107.50/share, valuing the deal at about $86 billion
7:40 pm Deal announced jointly via press release with offer price of $107.50/share
AT&T/Time WarnerAnatomy of a leak
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In conclusion…