Lunds universitet / Avdelningen för brandteknik och riskhantering

KURT PETERSENMARCUS ABRAHAMSSON

A STUDY OF THE PERFORMANCE OF RISK AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENTS BY SWEDISH PUBLIC AGENCIES

Lunds universitet / Avdelningen för brandteknik och riskhantering

Risk and vulnerability analysis in the Swedish crisis management system

• Requirement for (almost) all public agencies, Act 2002• Purpose

– Provide basis for decisions concerning risk and vulnerability reduction

• Scope– Identification of hazards, estimation of likelihood and

consequences– Capability to respond to

hazardous events/crises• Should constitute a ”system”

– Vertical and horizontal integration

Lunds universitet / Avdelningen för brandteknik och riskhantering

Purpose and motivation

• New detailed requirements have been issued in 2010 – increase comparability and interoperability– The following steps should be included in the RVAs:

• Identification of vital societal functions• Analysis of critical dependencies, and • Analysis of capability to respond to emergencies

• The requirements stipulate ”what” but not exactly ”how”, open to local decisions

• Explorative purpose:– What methods, approaches and perspectives have been

used and what challenges have been encountered?

Lunds universitet / Avdelningen för brandteknik och riskhantering

Purpose and motivation

• According to the new requirements the following steps should be included in the RVAs:– Identification of vital societal functions– Analysis of critical dependencies, and – Analysis of capability to respond to emergencies

• The requirements stipulate ”what” but not ”how”• Purpose/research questions:

– What methods, approaches and perspectives have been used for the three steps (if at all) and how have concepts been interpreted?

– What challanges have the agencies encountered and what support have they received and are they in need of?

Underlying motivation

If we want to improve the RVA-system we need to understand (and be sensitive to) the current practises,

challanges, etc.

Lunds universitet / Avdelningen för brandteknik och riskhantering

Method• Semi-structured interviews• Sample of 25 public agencies

(municipalities, county administration boards, national authorities)– Choice was based on acheiving good

representation in terms of size, location and function

• 5 interviewers with a common interview guide

• Persons that were central for the agency’s RVA-work were interviewed

• Documentation of RVA used in some cases to supplement the interviews

Lunds universitet / Avdelningen för brandteknik och riskhantering

Results and discussion: Themes

• Concepts and definitions• The RVA process• Approaches for identifying

the vital societal functions• Approaches for identifying

critical dependencies• Approaches to assess

capabilities• Participation• Support, guidance and

feedback

Lunds universitet / Avdelningen för brandteknik och riskhantering

Results and discussion

• Two perspectives on definitions:– Are unnecessary or can

even complicate the analysis

– Is key to proper communication

• Some of the concepts difficult to interpret – especially capability

• Use of the concepts need to be consistent accros the RVAs

• Concepts and definitions• The RVA process• Approaches for identifying

vital societal functions• Approaches for identifying

critical dependencies• Approaches to assess

capabilities• Participation• Support, guidance and

feedback

Lunds universitet / Avdelningen för brandteknik och riskhantering

Results and discussion

• Concepts and definitions• The RVA process• Approaches for identifying

the vital societal functions• Approaches for identifying

critical dependencies• Approaches to assess

capabilities• Participation• Support, guidance and

feedback

• Used approaches:– Scenario-specific (power

shortage, pandemics)– Scenario-independent– Combination of above

• …may give somewhat different results

• Many seemed to not have understood the purpose of this step

Lunds universitet / Avdelningen för brandteknik och riskhantering

Results and discussion

• Concepts and definitions• The RVA process• Approaches for identifying

vital societal functions• Approaches for identifying

critical dependencies• Approaches to assess

capabilities• Participation• Support, guidance and

feedback

• Approaches/arguments:– Not explicitly addressed

but captured in the scenario discussions

– Done for single units but not for the ”whole”

– Taliored methods are needed and used

• Closely related to vital societal functions and should be treated conjointly

Lunds universitet / Avdelningen för brandteknik och riskhantering

Results and discussion

• Concepts and definitions• The RVA process• Approaches for identifying

vital societal functions• Approaches for identifying

critical dependencies• Approaches to assess

capabilities• Participation• Support, guidance and

feedback

• Workshops with internal representatives vs. self-evaluations– Large interactions vs.

many involved

• The organization’s capability vs. the capability in the geographic area

• National capability given non-specific underlying capabilities

Lunds universitet / Avdelningen för brandteknik och riskhantering

Overall conclusions and reflections

• Wide variety of approaches and views• Key concepts seem to be used differently• The different steps of the RVA often fragmented into stand-

alone parts– Guidance of how to integrate are needed

• Need for method development – especially concerning capability assessment

• Need for a system ensuring integration throughout themes, RVA, capability, societal functions etc

• County administration boards are key to get the RVA-system to work

Lunds universitet / Avdelningen för brandteknik och riskhantering

Future/on-going work

• Detailed studies of all RVA reports in two counties – effect of the new legislation– Comparable?– Interoperable?

• Survey with all municipalities in Sweden (self-evaluation) – benefits of RVA?

• The findings are intended for influencing future regulation and method development

Lunds universitet / Avdelningen för brandteknik och riskhantering

Results and discussion

• Concepts and definitions• The RVA process• Approaches for identifying

vital societal functions• Approaches for identifying

critical dependencies• Approaches to assess

capabilities• Participation• Support, guidance and

feedback

• RVAs often fragmented into stand-alone parts

• Contribution by external actors

• Participation is still rather limited

• Limited background and training