Low-emissions pathways - IPIECA workshop summary

Low-emissions pathwaysIPIECA workshop summary

Climate change

THE GLOBAL OIL AND GASINDUSTRY ASSOCIATIONFOR ENVIRONMENTAL ANDSOCIAL ISSUES

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Low-emissions pathwaysIPIECA workshop summary

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The global oil and gas industry association for environmental and social issues

The 2015 Paris Agreement for the first time commits allParties to take action on climate change (known asNationally Determined Contributions or NDCs) and reporton progress. In addition, the Agreement also makes severalprovisions, although not commitments, to facilitate theadvancement of adaptation, mobilization and flow offinance and technology transfer. The current aggregateNDCs are recognized, including by independent analysts aswell as by the UNFCCC Secretariat, to be inadequate toachieve emissions reductions sufficient to put the world ona low carbon energy and emissions pathway towards thestated aim of ‘well below 2°C’. Significant progress intechnology, economics, and policy responses would berequired to meet such a goal.

The main messages heard at the workshop were:

l Nationally determined contributions (NDCs) are a keycomponent of the Paris Agreement, though there aresignificant challenges to understanding theircumulative effects (page 3).

l Projections of current NDCs appear inadequate toachieve the stated aim of well below 2°C, andgovernments are expected to increase their ambitionin the future (page 5).

l Carbon markets (and broader changes to financialinvestment flows) may enable the global reallocationof investments and capital, facilitating the transition toa lower-emissions economy (page 5).

l Non-State actors may begin to play a more active rolein addressing the risks of climate change, facilitated bythe Paris Agreement, as evidenced by the launch of arange of voluntary initiatives and partnerships duringCOP21 (page 6).

l Action to address climate change must also continueto support economic growth, energy access for all, andthe other UN Sustainable Development Goals (page 6).

l Key components in transitioning to a lower-emissionsenergy system include: energy efficiency; expanding theuse of natural gas, including coal substitution;deployment of renewable and nuclear energy; fuelswitching for transport; and significant deployment ofCO2 capture and sequestration (page 7).

l Low emissions pathways have different implicationsfor coal than they do for oil or gas (page 10).

Introduction

Executive summary

2 — Low-emissions pathways • IPIECA workshop summary

The IPIECA-organized workshop, held in Houston, Texason 15–16 March 2016, brought together experts fromacademia, business, governments, and international andnon-governmental organizations to consider theimplications and next steps from the Paris Agreement,together with other developments associated with the long-term policy and technology response to climate change.

The Paris Agreement, made in December 2015, establisheda new global treaty on climate change. The Agreement‘aims to strengthen the global response to the threat ofclimate change … by holding the increase in the globalaverage temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industriallevels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperatureincrease to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.’

IPIECA invited speakers who shared their expertise and adiverse range of perspectives, allowing members of theassociation to have an informed discussion amongmembers and also with the speakers. This documentsummarizes IPIECA’s understanding of the presentations

and discussions at the workshop, and is part of anongoing effort by IPIECA and its members to raiseunderstanding and help inform constructive discussion ofkey climate change issues. The summary and messagesare not intended to be a comprehensive review of alltechnologies or policies.

The objectives of the workshop on low-emissionspathways were to:

l review the outcomes from the United NationsFramework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)21st Session of the Conference of the Parties (COP21)and understand the implications of the Agreement;

l consider the resultant actions that might be taken;

l understand possible scenarios of energy andtechnology evolution in the medium to long term;

l identify drivers and barriers in low-carbon energytransition and low-emissions pathways; and

l consider where the oil and gas industry might playa role.


The 2015 Paris Agreement establishes a new globalagreement on climate change, which for the first timecommits all Parties to take action on climate changeand report on progress. After years of negotiations,parties to the UNFCCC committed to ‘prepare,communicate and maintain successive nationallydetermined contributions’ (NDCs) and to ‘communicatenationally determined contributions every five years’.Additionally, parties agreed to ‘regularly provide … anational inventory report of anthropogenic emissions’and to provide ‘information necessary to track progressmade in implementing and achieving their NDCs’.

With no set format for NDCs, nations expressed theirnational commitments in diverse ways, including absoluteemissions reductions, emissions intensity as a unit ofeconomic product, renewable energy goals, reductionsfrom business-as-usual emissions, and peak emissionyears. These issues, along with other factors, complicatethe analysis of their total effect. Nonetheless, thesecontributions, if achieved, represent a substantialdeflection from the prior baseline.

More than 186 nations submitted NDCs, including theUSA and China, which together account for 44 per centof global emissions. Since then, a number of groups,including the Massachusetts Institute of Technology(MIT) and the United Nations Environment Programme(UNEP), have carried out studies to understand theaggregate effect of the submitted NDCs.

Although the currently submitted NDCs go further thanthe Copenhagen Accord, for example, as shown by an MITanalysis, the NDCs still fall short of the necessary pathwayto reach a 2°C goal.

Nationally determined contributions (NDCs) are a key component of the Paris Agreement,though there are significant challenges to understanding their cumulative effects

Chinese PresidentXi Jinping shakeshands with USPresident BarackObama before theirmeeting at the WestLake State GuestHouse ahead of theG20 Summit on3 September 2016in Hangzhou, China.

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In Figure 1, the MIT analysis shows the pathway needed toachieve a 70 per cent probability of limiting temperaturerise to a 2°C and compares this against the NDCs. Withoutadditional future contributions, current NDCs do not meetthe stated long-term aim of the Agreement.

UNEP conducted a detailed analysis which also showsthat the NDCs will not achieve the stated long-term goalof the Paris Agreement (see Figure 2).

Figure 1

MIT analysis shows that the ParisAgreement falls short of limitingtemperature rise to 2°C as the emissionspathway falls short of that required forapproximately 70% chance of stayingwithin 2°C.

Source: MIT presentation

Figure 2

NDCs and the emissions gap: the UNEP study draws asimilar conclusion to the MIT analysis—the NDCs do notachieve the stated long-term goal as there is a significantgap between both the conditional and unconditionalcontributions by nations and the range of emissions(‘windows’) indicated for the 2°C goal.

Source: UNEP


Since analysts have projected that the currentlysubmitted set of NDCs results in aggregate emissionsreductions that would miss the stated long-term goal,one may anticipate stronger actions and more stringentpolicy from nations over the long term if they intend toachieve that goal. Indeed, one of the decisions made atthe Paris Agreement invites Parties to submit long-termlow-GHG emission development strategies before 2020.

The Paris Agreement also includes the following keyprovisions that relate to future ambition:

l Aims to peak GHG emissions as soon as possible andreach ‘a balance between anthropogenic emissions bysources and emissions by sinks of greenhouse gasesin the second half of this century’.

l A commitment by all countries to regular reporting,including on mitigation, adaptation and finance.

l A global dialogue taking place in 2018 between allParties, after which the Paris Agreement sets the firstglobal stocktake in 2023 and every five yearsthereafter to assess progress and review any newinformation that would help and encourage nations todo more.

l Mobilization of climate finance, setting $100 billion perannum as the floor for financial transfers fromdeveloped to developing countries from 2025.

l Provision for the development of carbon markets byenabling the international transfers of mitigationoutcomes, and further encouragement of mitigationthrough the creation of a mechanism which alsosupports sustainable development among all nations.

l Establishment of a technology framework inpromoting and facilitating enhanced action ontechnology development and transfer.

Projections of current NDCs appear inadequate to achieve the stated aim of well below2°C, and governments are expected to increase their ambition in the future

Allocation of capital and investment will be critical for thetransition to low-carbon energy technologies and low-emissions pathways. Efficient market-based approachescould keep costs down, avoid economic shocks and helpaddress competitiveness concerns. Carbon marketscould enable this allocation of investments and theefficient global transfer of capital, putting nations on low-emissions development pathways.

Article 6 of the Paris Agreement facilitates internationalcooperation, with one approach allowing theinternational transfer of mitigation outcomes (ITMOs)between any nations. Therefore, ITMOs acknowledge thatNDCs may be achieved through emissions reductions inother nations—potentially enabled via carbon marketsand the use of an emissions trading mechanism. There isa requirement that ITMOs be subject to robustaccounting principles, including no double counting.

A second provision establishes an offset or creditingmechanism to promote mitigation of GHGs while fosteringsustainable development among all nations. Thismechanism would allow for one nation to contribute to

the reduction of emission levels in the host nation, whichbenefits from the mitigation activities; the resultingemission reductions are then used by the donor nation toachieve its NDCs. This too would also be subject to nodouble counting so that emission reductions ‘shall not beused to demonstrate achievement of the host Party’snationally determined contribution if used by another Partyto demonstrate achievement of its nationally determinedcontribution.’ (Paris Agreement Article 6, paragraph 5.)

Separately, Article 5 encourages ‘… policy approaches andpositive incentives for activities relating to reducingemissions from deforestation and forest degradation.’Article 5 thus reaffirms the role of reducing emissions fromdeforestation and degradation (REDD+) and, at the sametime, enables the use of carbon markets in this context.

Beyond the UNFCCC, recent initiatives promoting carbonmarkets include the World Bank’s Partnership for MarketReadiness and the Carbon Pricing Leadership Coalition.Germany is leading a new G7 carbon market platform andNew Zealand has made a declaration on carbon markets,which were joined by a number of other countries.

Carbon markets (and broader changes to financial investment flows) may enable theglobal reallocation of investments and capital, facilitating the transition to a lower-emissions economy


In 2015, during the lead-up to COP21 and also during thetwo weeks of the negotiations, several announcementsand declarations by other governments and non-stateactors were also made. These include initiatives andcommitments from business, groups of nations, andsubnational governments.

l Subnational and business pledges were made underthe Non-State Actor Zone for Climate Action (NAZCA),under which 11,000 pledges were made.

l France and India announced the International SolarEnergy Alliance—an agreement by 120 nationsaiming to alleviate energy poverty through themobilization of $1 trillion of solar investment by 2030.

l Mission Innovation—an agreement made by 20nations to double government investment in cleanenergy in 5 years, to work with business and to shareinformation. This is supported by the BreakthroughEnergy Coalition which is a commitment made bywealthy individuals (including Bill Gates, MarkZuckerberg and Jeff Bezos) to invest in early stageresearch and development that supports clean energytechnology.

Non-State actors may begin to play a more active role in addressing the risks of climatechange, facilitated by the Paris Agreement, as evidenced by the launch of a range ofvoluntary initiatives and partnerships during COP21

Other UN processes that will interface with climate policyinclude: the UN Sustainable Development Goals (UNSDGs); Financing for Development; and the UN WorldConference for Disaster Risk Reduction. The UNSustainable Development Summit in September 2015produced a successor to the Millennium DevelopmentGoals. The SDGs are intended as an internationallyendorsed comprehensive framework for achievingsustainable development globally, through thecoordination and leadership of UN and Bretton Woodsinstitutions (the World Bank, and the InternationalMonetary Fund). The SDG process consists of fourelements: declaration; sustainable development goals;means of implementation and financing; and monitoringmechanisms.

There are 17 goals in total, with a large number ofindicators underlying each goal. Many of the indicatorshave varying degrees of maturity, due to the lack ofaccepted methodology or data. Because of this,implementing the SDGs could result in problematic policycreation if the underlying methodologies or data are notimproved and clarified.

There could also be interaction between the individualgoals, and there could be indirect effects on other goals.Thus, policy alignment between ‘climate action’ (SDG 13)and the other goals is needed at all levels. For example,failure of the NDCs to take into consideration theirindirect impacts in other SDG areas could ultimatelyresult in inaction or a reduction in the effectiveness ofclimate action. Conversely, failure to meet the SDG goalsmay make it more difficult for governments to meet theaims of the Paris Agreement.

The UN envisages businesses playing a key role indelivery of the SDGs, and they are likely to form aframework against which businesses and actors from allsectors of the economy will be assessed for theircontribution to, and impacts on, sustainabledevelopment1.

Action to address climate change must also continue to support economic growth, energyaccess for all, and the other UN Sustainable Development Goals

1 IPIECA is currently developing a mapping document for oil and gas companies to the SDGs.


Near term: implications of 2015 NDCs

According to analysis by the International Energy Agency(IEA), growth in global energy-related GHG emissions isprojected to slow, but with no peak by 2030, in its NDCScenario; this is consistent with analyses from MIT(Figure 1) and UNEP (Figure 2).

Medium term: efforts to stay on a pathwaycommensurate with 2C

The IEA recommends the following five key measures inthe near term in a ‘Bridge Scenario’ which could bring theworld closer to a 2°C goal by 2030, using only proventechnologies.

The IEA believes that these actions will not harmeconomic growth, and would still support energy access(see Figure 3). These measures are:

l increasing energy efficiency in the industry, buildingsand transport sectors;

l progressively reducing the use of the least-efficientcoal-fired power plants and banning theirconstruction;

l increasing investment in renewable energytechnologies in the power sector from $270 billion in2014 to $400 billion in 2030;

l gradual phasing out of fossil-fuel subsidies to endusers by 2030; and

l reducing methane emissions in oil and gasproduction.

Key components in transitioning to a lower-emissions energy system include: energyefficiency; expanding the use of natural gas, including coal substitution; deployment ofrenewable and nuclear energy; fuel switching for transport; and significant deployment ofCO2 capture and sequestration

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Figure 3

IEA recommends five key measures—represented by the ‘Bridge Scenario’—to achieve a peak inemissions around 2020 using only proven technologies and without harming economic growth.

Source: IEA


2 2DS is the IEA’s 2°C scenario described in their Energy Technology Perspectives publications. It lays out the energy system deployment pathway andemissions trajectory consistent with at least a 50% chance of limiting average global temperature increase to 2°C. For more information seewww.iea.org/publications/scenariosandprojections

3 Ranging from -2% to 1.8% depending on the pathway selected.

Long-term scenarios

The IEA projects several significant transitions to achievea 2DS2 scenario, including:

l increased electrification, with electricity overtaking oilas the largest final energy source by 2050;

l deployment of carbon capture and storage (CCS),covering 95% of coal and 40% of gas when used forpower generation, by 2050; and

l fossil fuels remaining a part of the landscape, but theirrole shrinking.

The Bridge Scenario notwithstanding, the IEA identifies alikely set of reductions necessary to move from businessas usual to a 2°C pathway, as set out in Figure 4.

The Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP)—aglobal collaboration of energy research teams—carriedout detailed modelling which indicated that technicallyfeasible solutions are available which provide emissionspathways to 2050 that are consistent with a 2°C goal. TheUS team concluded that, for the USA, the net cost wouldbe about 1 per cent3 of gross domestic product in 2050.

Energy demand, especially in non-OECD nations, willcontinue to grow even in a 2C scenario. Non-OECDnations will therefore have a critical role to play indeploying low-carbon energy technologies, and thisdeployment will need to be maintained at a pace thatkeeps up with the growth of energy demand. The IEAprojects that, in a 2C scenario, the continuedconsumption of fossil fuels for power generation in 2050will largely involve the use of CCS, especially for coal.

1.5C goal

The Paris Agreement notes a 1.5°C goal, which had notbeen considered in detail in previous policy discussions orIPCC scientific analyses. The full implications of the low-emissions pathways to transition to this scenario are,therefore, not well understood. To achieve a global averagetemperature well below 2°C, current limited analysesgenerally suggest that emissions reductions will need tobe carried out sooner, and more aggressively.

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Figure 4

From 6DS to 2DS: reductions identifiedby the IEA as being potentiallynecessary to move from business asusual to a 2°C pathway.


Options for a low-emissions energy system

Energy accounts for two-thirds of global GHG emissions,with the remaining one-third coming from sectorsincluding forestry and agriculture. The DDPP identifiedthree pillars to the decarbonization of energy:

1. energy efficiency;

2. decarbonizing power supply (including renewables,nuclear, CCS); and

3. end-use fuel switching (including electric vehicles).

Other sectors such as forestry and agriculture account foraround one-third of emissions. Some of these technologyoptions were discussed at the IPIECA workshop byrelevant experts, as summarized below. Thesetechnologies are not an exhaustive list of elements of alow-emissions pathway.

Renewable energy

Solar and wind have been the dominant forms ofrenewable energy deployed in recent years and this trendis expected to continue. The costs of these renewableenergy sources have been declining. They also provide airquality and energy security benefits throughdiversification of sources.

There are several example approaches that can helpmanage the issues of renewable energy integration withfossil fuels in electricity production:

l Institute demand response.

l Use more energy storage mechanisms such aspumped hydro or batteries.

l Use excess generation to produce fuels such ashydrogen or synthetic gas.

l Diversify supply through geographically diverserenewable energy production or interconnection withother grids.

l Dispatch natural gas fired generation (with or without CCS).

With these approaches it appears possible to integratehigh levels of renewables onto the grid. At least in theUSA, natural gas is likely to remain the primary integrationtool until at least 2040.

Batteries

Using combinations of renewable energy and batterystorage can help to integrate high levels of renewablesinto the grid. Battery storage technologies are improvingsteadily, providing clear synergies with renewableenergies, especially solar. The combination of solar andbattery storage systems offers resiliency benefits. Theelectric vehicle (EV) market is expanding dramatically,

leading to such significant technical progress andeconomies of scale that some utility regulators are nowimposing electricity storage capacity requirements on theiroperators. Much of the current North American batterydemand is driven by California’s Public Utilities Commissionrequirement to install 1.3 GW of storage by 2020. Otherjurisdictions such as Adelaide in Australia, Germany andPuerto Rico are all implementing energy storage, eitherby mandating it or giving financial incentives.

Electrified transport

Electric vehicles (EVs) are experiencing significant policysupport that has led to rapid recent growth in bothproduction and demand. This includes subsidies, accessto high-occupancy vehicle lanes and, in many cases, freecharging. This has allowed the market for battery electricvehicles (BEVs) to grow at a similar rate to the plug-inhybrid vehicle (PHEV) market during the early adoptionstages. Compared to BEVs and PHEVs, the market for hybridvehicles (HEVs or HVs—i.e. vehicles powered by an internalcombustion engine (ICE) coupled with an electric motor)remains dominant in the USA and Europe. Market demandfor EVs is currently dependent on policy support, and salesdrop when this support is removed. The ongoing reductionin battery prices are likely to reduce the need for subsidies,but battery prices will need to decrease by more than halfbefore this would offset a removal of current US subsidies.Market penetration is hindered by the fact that only 20per cent of car buyers are currently buying new vehicles.

Carbon capture and storage

Modelling repeatedly shows that achieving 2°C outcomesare significantly cheaper with widespread CCS use. Forexample, the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report describedhundreds of scenarios in which the societal cost issignificantly higher without CCS. In many scenarios,excluding CCS from the portfolio of energy technologiesprevents the models from being able to achieve a 2°Coutcome. There are 40 large-scale operating projects inthe world to date, and the IEA 2°C scenario requires thatthis is increased 50-fold by 2040.

However, despite being a necessary part of a low-emissions pathway in many scenarios, there has been atrend for policymakers to place less focus on CCS as part ofthe solution. This is due in part to the fact that CCS requiresfurther support to lower costs, incentivize deploymentand resolve financing, storage and other issues, combinedwith a surge in the growth of renewables in recent years.Further, there is no political cost for government leadersand policymakers in rejecting or not actively supportingCCS. Proponents of CCS technology need a new approachto promote the technology, including, for example, newcross-industry partnerships and modular design.

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Under most 2°C scenarios, the use of natural gascontinues to grow until at least 2040, but requiresincreasing CCS to abate emissions. Expanding the use ofnatural gas will also require continued efforts to ensurethat methane emissions are reduced along theproduction chain.

Oil has a less certain future than natural gas and dependson the ambition of the scenario, including the relativeproportions of future coal use and the electrification oftransport.

Under a 2°C scenario, coal consumption is required todecrease dramatically (see Figure 5) and the vast majorityof this remaining consumption will need to be abatedthrough CCS. Recent trends suggest that the growth incoal consumption has already slowed markedly. Forexample, coal consumption is falling rapidly in the USAand government policy is increasingly targeting coal usein the EU (notably in Germany and the UK). Consumptionin China is plateauing and has potentially already peaked,with no other country seeming likely to substitute forChina’s recent growth.


Low-emissions pathways have different implications for coal than they do for oil or gas

Figure 5

IEA analysis suggests that coal use willneed to reduce under a 2°C scenario.

Source: World Energy Outlook, IEA (2015)


Conclusion

IPIECA organized the low-emissions pathways workshopthree months after the Paris Agreement was achieved.The workshop was one of a series of actions that IPIECAwill be taking to understand the implications of theAgreement and raise awareness of insights shared byexperts from outside the oil and gas industry. This alsohelps IPIECA members in promoting discussion andfurther fact-finding.

The Paris Agreement sets an ambitious long-term goal tothe end of the century. IPIECA will continue to strive tobetter enable oil and gas companies to meet societalexpectations across a range of future climate and energyscenarios, by anticipating issues, improving performance,informing on industry-relevant topics, and promotingconstructive dialogue with stakeholders.

Workshop agenda


IMPLICATIONS OF THE PARIS AGREEMENT

Chair: Arthur Lee (Chevron)

l Welcome and Introduction (Brian Sullivan, IPIECA)

l Analysis of the Paris Agreement (Tim Profeta, Nicholas Institute for Environmental PolicySolutions, Duke University)

l Meaning and implications of the Paris Agreement (Janet Peace, C2ES)

l National Ambition: NDCs and ‘Pledge and Review’ (Henry Jacoby, MIT)

l UNEP NDCs Gap Report: Reaching a 2C objective (Merlyn Van Voore, UNEP)

l Burden sharing and the future of carbon markets (Dirk Forrister, IETA)

l The UN Sustainable Development Goals (John Drexhage, Consultant)

LOW-EMISSIONS PATHWAYS

Chair: Kate Fay (Noble Energy)

l Energy technology pathways to 2050 (Philippe Benoit, IEA)

l Pathways to deep decarbonization (Ryan Jones, Evolved Energy Research)

l Implications and projections for renewables (Amber Mahone, E3)

l Status of battery technology (Benjamin Gully, DNV-GL)

l The electrification of transport (William Chernicoff, Toyota)

l Prospects for CCS and CCUS (Julio Friedmann, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory)

Low-emissions pathways: an IPIECA workshop, Houston, Texas, 15–16 March 2016

All presentations are available from the IPIECA workshop web page:www.ipieca.org/event/20151209/low-emissions-pathways-workshop

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