Energy Pathways to a Low-Carbon Future - IPIECA
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© OECD/IEA 2015 © OECD/IEA 2015 IPIECA Houston, March 16, 2016 Philippe Benoit Head, Energy Environment Division International Energy Agency Energy Pathways to a Low-Carbon Future
Transcript of Energy Pathways to a Low-Carbon Future - IPIECA
© OECD/IEA 2015© OECD/IEA 2015
IPIECA
Houston, March 16, 2016
Philippe BenoitHead, Energy Environment Division
International Energy Agency
Energy Pathways to a
Low-Carbon Future
© OECD/IEA 2015
The Storyboard
Act 1: The lead-up to Paris
Act 2: COP 21: Paris in December
Act 3: Challenges of 2oC (coal, RE, EE, etc.)
Act 4: Going from to 2oC to ‘well below 2oC’
Act 5: 2016 - Implementation begins ...
Act 6: Shift in gravity: developing countriesAAaaaand opportunities for tunneling
WEO 2015 CC Special Report
© OECD/IEA 2015
Prologue
© OECD/IEA 2015
The global challenge: Climbing down the mountain
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1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050
Mt C
O2e
2DS
“Getting to the top is optional.
Getting down is mandatory.”Ed Viesturs
© www.nordiclandscapes.com
© OECD/IEA 2015
Act 1: . . . the lead-up to
Paris
© OECD/IEA 2015
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2011 2020 2030 2040 2050
Nuclear 8%
Renewables 30%
End-use fuel switching 10%
CCS 13%
End-use fuel and electricity
efficiency 38%
Gt CO2
fuel switching 1%
Power generation efficiency and
From 6DS (‘old BAU’) to 2DS
ETP 2014, 2015
© OECD/IEA 2015 The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on maps included in this publication do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the IEA.
Pledges submitted(Jan 16)
Intended Nationally Determined Contributions: A broad-based effort
Pledges from countries account for 95% of global energy-related GHG emissions
OECD AsiaOceania
2.2 Gt
Russia and Caspian
2.0 Gt
Europe
3.8 Gt
North America
6.1 Gt
South America
1.2 Gt
Africa
1.1 Gt
Middle East
2.0 Gt
1.7 Gt
Other AsiaIndia
1.9 Gt
China
8.6 Gt
© OECD/IEA 2015
INDCs . . .
WEO 2015 CC Special Report
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36
2015 2020 2025 2030
Gt
450 Scenario
INDC Scenario
INDC Scenario above 2DS (450 PPM)
© OECD/IEA 2015
INDC Climate pledges shift theenergy sector
One-quarter of the world’s energy supply is low carbon in 2030; energy intensity improves three-times faster than the last decade
Renewables reach nearly 60% of new capacity additions in the power sector; two-thirds of additions are in China, EU, US & India
Natural gas is the only fossil-fuel that increases its share of the global energy mix
Total coal demand in the US, Europe & Japan contracts by 45%, while the growth in India’s coal use slows by one-quarter
Inefficient coal plants installed in 2030 are only marginally lower than today
WEO 2015 CC Special Report
© OECD/IEA 2015
Climate pledges decouple power sector emissions from electricity demand
World electricity generation
The share of low-carbon power generation grows to almost 45% in 2030 so that power emissions remain flat, while electricity demand grows by more than 40%
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Gen
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(th
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d T
Wh
)
and related CO2 emissions
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Emis
sio
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(Gt)
5
10
15
20
CO2 emissions
Electricity generation
Electricity generation
CO2 emissions
© OECD/IEA 2015
IEA messages to COP21
To shift the energy sector onto a low-carbon path that supports economic growth & energy access:
1. Take 5 key actions, led by energy efficiency & renewables, to peak then reduce global energy emissions
2. Use the Paris Agreement to drive short-term actions consistent with long-term emission goals
3. Accelerate energy technology innovation to make decarbonisationeasier and even more affordable
4. Enhance energy security by making the energy sector more resilient to climate change impacts
To shift the energy sector onto a low-carbon path that supports economic growth & energy access:
© OECD/IEA 2015
Peak in emissions: IEA strategy to raise climate ambition
Global energy-related GHG emissions
Five measures – shown in a “Bridge Scenario” – achieve a peak in emissions around 2020, using only proven technologies & without harming economic growth
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25
30
35
40
2000 2014 2020 2025 2030
Gt
CO
2-e
q
Bridge Scenario
INDC Scenario
Energy efficiency
49%
Reducinginefficient coal
Renewablesinvestment
Upstream methanereductions
Fossil-fuelsubsidy reform
17%
15%
10%
Savings by measure, 2030
9%
© OECD/IEA 2015
Peaking emissions around 2020: Bridging strategy varies across regions
The measures in the Bridge Scenario apply flexibly across regions, with energy efficiency & renewables as key measures worldwide
United States
European Union
China
India
Middle East
Latin AmericaAfrica
Southeast Asia
Russia
Fossil-fuel subsidies
Efficiency
Renewables
Inefficient coal plants
Methane reductions
GHG emissions reduction by measure in the Bridge Scenario, relative to the INDC Scenario, 2030
© OECD/IEA 2015
Act 2:
Two weeks in Paris
in December
© OECD/IEA 2015
Paris Agreement Keys
“Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2oC above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5oC above pre-industrial levels…;”
“… Parties aim to reach global peaking of greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible, recognizing that peaking will take longer for developing country Parties, and … to achieve a balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks … in the second half of this century …”
5-year review cycle for Nationally Determined Contributions
© OECD/IEA 2015
Act 3:Après Paris . . .
challenges remain to get to even 2oC?
© OECD/IEA 2015
Beyond the INDCs . . . to 2DS
WEO 2015 CC Special Report
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27
30
33
36
2015 2020 2025 2030
Gt
450 Scenario
INDC Scenario
Need more action to achieve two degrees objective
© OECD/IEA 2015
Shifting fuels mix …
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6DS 4DS 2DS
EJ
Other renewables
Hydro
Biomass and waste
Nuclear
Coal
Oil
Natural gas
…due to energy efficiency and switching to low-carbon fuels, but fossil fuels remain with a 44% share in 2050 an important
part of global energy supply in the 2DS (ETP2015)
© OECD/IEA 2015
Shifting energy sources (TFC) …
… electricity provides the
largest share of final consumption in 2050 under the
2DS, surpassing oil
© OECD/IEA 2015
Fossil fuels are still a part of the energy landscape in 2DS . . .
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
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2012 2050 - 6D 2050 - 2D
PJ
Global Final Energy Demand by Fuel (PJ)
Natural gas
Coal
Oil
Continued, albeit lessened, role for fossil fuelsETP 2014, 2015
© OECD/IEA 2015
3,684
179
1,406
3,197
6,197
2,650
699
1,795
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TWh
Fossil-fuel power with CCS (2DS)
Unabated coal CCS coal Unabated gas CCS gas
2035 2050
ETP 2014, 2015
CCS: key to increasing ambition for low-emissions pathway
© OECD/IEA 2015
Gas is the lone growing fossil fuel in a low-carbon future
A 450 ppm scenario needs much more than coal-to-gas substitution; efficiency gains & power sector decarbonisation ultimately erode gas use in most markets
- 200
- 100
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OECDAsia
EuropeanUnion
Russia /Caspian
UnitedStates
LatinAmerica
India Africa SoutheastAsia
MiddleEast
China
Billioncubicmetres
Changein 450S
NPS
450S
Change in gas demand in selected regions between 2014-2040 in NPS450S
© OECD/IEA 2015
ETP 2014, 2015
0
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2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
TWh
Unabated Global Gas Power Generation – 2DS
RoW
OECD
ASEAN
India
China
Gas: a transition or a destination?
© OECD/IEA 2015
ETP 2014, 2015
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gCO
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Gas turbine
Combined-cycle
NGCC+postcom capture
CO2 intensityin 2DS
Gas: a transition or a destination?
© OECD/IEA 2015
Act 4:From 2oC
to‘well below 2oC‘ . . .
© OECD/IEA 2015
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2011 2020 2030 2040 2050
Nuclear 8%
Renewables 30%
End-use fuel switching 10%
CCS 13%
Gt CO2
fuel switching 1%
Power generation efficiency and
ETP 2014, 2015
End-use fuel and electricity
efficiency 38%
From 2 . . . to ‘well below 2’
© OECD/IEA 2015
From 2 . . . to ‘well below 2’
0
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2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Mt/
CO
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Direct CO2 Emissions
Othertransformation
Power
Transport
Agriculture
Services
Residential
Industry
© OECD/IEA 2015
2, less than 2 and 1.5oC …
Source: Rogelj et al. (June 2015)
© OECD/IEA 2015
2, ‘well below 2’ and 1.5
Source: Rogelj et al. (June 2015)
© OECD/IEA 2015
Act 5:2016 -
Implementation begins . . .
© OECD/IEA 2015
2016, the year for . . .
Low (super-low) oil prices
China and the global economic slowdown
Middle East and Refugee movements
2016 US elections
Climate Change -- Paris momentum
© OECD/IEA 2016
World oil demand growth slows
Cools from 1.7%/yr in 2009-15 to 1.2%/yr in 2016-2021
2009-15
2015-21
© OECD/IEA, 2016(kb/d)
-179 -76138 52
283
27
164 215
104 155
Americas
Africa
Middle East
Europe
FSU
969826
Asia/Pacific
© OECD/IEA 2015
Low oil prices affectslow carbon efforts
Reduces relative attractiveness of renewables and energy efficiency investments . . .
Limits on areas of direct ‘competition’ -- e.g. transport different from electricity (w/gas)
Ripples through gas prices in uneven manner
Policies drivers remain strong for low carbon
Prolonged low prices could affect support
© OECD/IEA 2015
Coal Report (2015): There is no “second” China waiting to drive global coal use
Coal demand in China might have already peaked, with major implications for global energy & climate trends
Strong growth in coal use in India & Southeast Asia offset declines in the EU & the US, but does not match the rise seen over last decade in China
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
China
India
Southeast Asia
United States
European Union
Rest of world
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000Mtce
© OECD/IEA 2015
Act 6:The World
keeps on changing:opportunities for
tunneling through . . .
© OECD/IEA 2015Source: based on World Energy Outlook 2014
Growing weight of developing countries in global energy demand
Over 95% of the projected growth in energy demand between now and 2035 happens outside the OECD (NPS)
© OECD/IEA 2015
GDP per Capita, 2013
$-
$5,000.00
$10,000.00
$15,000.00
$20,000.00
$25,000.00
$30,000.00
$35,000.00
$40,000.00
$45,000.00
$50,000.00
US
20
05
PP
P
Global Average
GDP/capita in Non-OECD:starting low with lots of room to grow
© OECD/IEA 2015
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30
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1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
GtC
O2
Other OECD 9%
United States 13%
European Union 7%
Other non-OECD 15%
Other emergingeconomies 14%India 13%
China 29%
OECD and non-OECD action for a low-emissions future
© OECD/IEA 2015
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30
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50
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1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
GtC
O2
Other OECD 9%
United States 13%
European Union 7%
Other non-OECD 15%
Other emergingeconomies 14%India 13%
China 29%
About 70% of the decarbonization actions in the 2DS
take place in non-OECD countries
OECD and non-OECD action for a low-emissions future
© OECD/IEA 2015
CO2 emissions per capita
Source: Track the energy transition (2015)
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tCO
2/c
apit
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OECD Americas
OECD Asia Oceania
OECD Europe
China
India
Africa
© OECD/IEA 2015
The global challenge: Climbing down the mountain
0
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10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050
Mt C
O2e
2DS
“Getting to the top is optional.
Getting down is mandatory.”Ed Viesturs
© www.nordiclandscapes.com
Tunneling through
© OECD/IEA 2015
Non-OECD key to deployment of clean energy technologies in the 2DS
High deployment of low-carbon technologies in emerging economies needed to keep pace with projected near-term energy demand growth.
Power sector technology deployment rates in the 2DS
© OECD/IEA 2015
With scale up of deployment and learning, investment costs of most dynamic technologies (solar PV and onshore wind) continue to fall
Large scale wind and solar now increasingly competitive
Notes: Average unit investment costs are based on gross additions, which include capacity refurbishments that are typically lower cost than new capacity. Costs
vary over time due to technology changes as well as where deployment occurs in a given year..
Weighted average annual renewable investment costs, historical and projected
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6 000
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Other non-OECD
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2 000
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2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
China
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5 000
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2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
USD
2013
/kW
OECD
Hydro Bioenergy Onshore wind Offshore wind Solar PV residential/commercial Solar PV utility
Technology innovation: needed to make 2DS path cheaper and easierTechnology innovation: needed to
make 2DS path cheaper and easier
© OECD/IEA 2015
Evaluating challenges and opportunities is essential to supporting innovation where it has the most impact
Emerging economy patent applications as percent of total IEA
Expanding innovation in clean technologies outside OECD
© OECD/IEA 2015
Adapted solutions are key . . .
along the entire RDD&D value chain(low watt ceiling fans in India)
© OECD/IEA 2015
Policy Innovation: system interaction key to integrate large shares of variable renewables
Properties of variable renewable energy (VRE)
Flexibility of power system components: Integrated
System Management
Variable
Uncertain
Non-synchronous
Location constrained
Modularity
Low short-run cost
© OECD/IEA 2015
sec
yrs
1 km
100skm Grids
GenerationStorage
Demand Side
Policy Innovation: system interaction key to integrate large shares of variable renewables
© OECD/IEA 2015Source: IEA estimates derived in part from IEA Medium-Term Renewable Energy Market Report 2015.
Towards higher shares of variable renewables to 2020
Share of variable electricity generation in 2014
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Japan
USA
France
China
India
Brazil
Australia
Sweden
Italy
UK
ESP & PRT
Germany
Ireland
Denmark
Share wind 2014 Share PV 2014 Share Wind 2020 Share PV 2020
Share of variable electricity generation in 2014 and 2020
© OECD/IEA 2015
Mobilizing non-climate levers...
Energy security (RE/EE are domestic
production)
Fuel import expenditures
Reliability of energy supply
…
© OECD/IEA 2015© OECD/IEA 2015Credit: Patrick Kovarik AFPMarch 11, 2014
Dirty air prompts free public transport in ParisPublic transportation in the capital will be "gratuit" from Friday morning to
Sunday night, as officials battle against a spike in "dangerously" poor air quality.
Velib' rental bikes and the car-sharing Autolib' scheme are also on the house.
Air quality
© OECD/IEA 2015
The ‘where’: urban growth dominates
Urban population growth to 2050 by region
Source: ETP using United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (2014), World Urbanization Prospects: the 2014 Revision.
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Middle East
Africa
Latin America
Other Developing Asia
India
China
Non-OECD Europe & Eurasia
OECD Pacific
OECD Europe
OECD Americas
Urban share
© OECD/IEA 2015
Developing cities have great potential
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●Abijan, 1
Amsterdam, 1
Athens, 1
Atlanta, 1
Bangkok, 1
Barcelona, 1
Beijing, 1
Berlin, 1Berne, 1
Bogota, 1
Bologna, 1Brisbane, 1
Brussels, 1
Budapest, 1
Cairo, 1
Calgary, 1
Cape Town, 1Caracas, 1
Chennai, 1
Chicago, 1
Copenhagen, 1
Curitiba, 1
Dakar, 1
Denver, 1
Dusseldorf, 1 Frankfurt, 1
Geneva, 1Glasgow, 1
Graz, 1
Guangzhou, 1
Hamburg, 1
Harare, 1
Helsinki, 1
Hong Kong, 1
Houston, 1
Jakarta, 1Johannesburg, 1
Krakow, 1
Kuala Lumpur, 1
London, 1
Los Angeles, 1
Lyon, 1
Madrid, 1
Manchester, 1
Manila, 1
Marseille, 1Melbourne, 1
Milan, 1
Montreal, 1
Mumbai, 1
Munich, 1
Nantes, 1New York, 1
Newcastle, 1
Osaka, 1
Oslo, 1
Ottawa, 1
Paris, 1
Perth, 1
Phoenix, 1
Prague, 1
Rio de Janeiro, 1
Rome, 1
Ruhr, 1
San Diego, 1
San Francisco, 1
Sao Paulo, 1
Sapporo, 1
Seoul, 1
Shanghai, 1
Singapore, 1
Stockholm, 1
Stuttgart, 1Sydney, 1
Taipei, 1
Tehran, 1
Tel Aviv, 1
Tokyo, 1
Toronto, 1
Tunis, 1
Vancouver, 1
Vienna, 1
Washington, 1
Wellington, 1
Zurich, 1
Melbourne, 2
Vienna, 2
Graz, 2
Ghent, 2
Brussels, 2
Sao Paulo, 2
Hong Kong, 2
Prague, 2
Copenhagen, 2
Helsinki, 2
Lille, 2
Lyons, 2
Paris, 2
Marseilles, 2Nantes, 2
Clermont Ferrand, 2
Munich, 2
Stuttgart, 2
Berlin, 2
Hamburg, 2
Athens, 2
Budapest, 2
Turin, 2
Rome, 2
Bologna, 2
Rotterdam, 2
Amsterdam, 2 Oslo, 2
Krakow, 2Warsaw, 2
Lisbon, 2
Moscow, 2
Singapore, 2
Barcelona, 2
Madrid, 2
Seville, 2
Bilbao, 2
Valencia, 2
Stockholm, 2
Zurich, 2
Bern, 2
Geneva, 2
Dubai, 2
Newcastle, 2
Manchester, 2
London, 2
Glasgow, 2
Chicago, 2
Vienna, 3
Birmingham, 3
London, 3
Oslo, 3
Prague, 3
Stockholm, 3
Goteburg, 3
Lagos, 3
Tokyo, 3Hong Kong, 3
Taipei, 3
Singapore, 3
Brisbane, 3
Abu Dhabi, 3
Niigata, 3
Shizuoka, 3
Abijan, 1
Athens, 1
Bangkok, 1
Beijing, 1
Bogota, 1
Budapest, 1
Cairo, 1
Cape Town, 1
Chennai, 1
Curitiba, 1
Dakar, 1
Harare, 1
Jakarta, 1Johannesburg, 1
Krakow, 1
Kuala Lumpur, 1
Manila, 1
Mumbai, 1
Prague, 1
Rio de Janeiro, 1
Sao Paulo, 1
Seoul, 1
Shanghai, 1
Tehran, 1
Tunis, 1
Sao Paulo, 2
Athens, 2
Budapest, 2
Krakow, 2
Moscow, 2
Seville, 2
Lagos, 3
Taipei, 3
0
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GDP per capita
Pri
va
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hare
Group
●a
●a
●a
Dense
Low income
Sprawling
© OECD/IEA 2015
High-density environments with good transit use less energy
The time frame to alter urban design is long (decades)
• Building cities from scratch is rarely possible
• Fast-growing countries can (and need to) do that
Integrated measures are needed for effective results
• Land use planning, fees/pricing measures, environmental zones
Larger effects seen in the long term
Beyond Improve: Avoid & Shift policies
Passenger transport
© OECD/IEA 2015
Role of Avoid/Shift in transport energy and emissions reductions (2DS)
GHG emissions Final energy
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2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
GtC
O2-
eq
Avoid/Shift (Urban) Avoid/Shift (Non-Urban)Vehicle efficiency (Urban) Vehicle efficiency (Non-Urban)Low carbon fuels (Urban) Low carbon fuels (Non-Urban)
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2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
EJ /
yea
r
Source: IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2016 (forthcoming)
Not just about improving equipment . . .
© OECD/IEA 2015
Epilogue
© OECD/IEA 2015
Paris Agreement sets powerful long-term goal
4 phases in implementation challenge:
• a) INDCs; b) 2 degrees; c) well below 2oC; d) 1.5oC
Renewables and energy efficiency, as well as CCS and nuclear, are key
Need to merge economic growth (notably outside OECD) with low emissions
Ever diminishing role for fossil fuels in the long-run in a low-carbon future
Innovation and commitment are key
Some conclusions
© OECD/IEA 2015
Thank you
