PATHWAYS TO DEEP DECARBONISATION - IPIECA · PATHWAYS TO DEEP DECARBONISATION ... 1990 1995 2000...
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Ryan Jones Principal, Evolved Energy Research [email protected] PATHWAYS TO DEEP DECARBONISATION Highlights from the deep decarbonisation pathways reports
Transcript of PATHWAYS TO DEEP DECARBONISATION - IPIECA · PATHWAYS TO DEEP DECARBONISATION ... 1990 1995 2000...
Ryan Jones
Principal, Evolved Energy Research
PATHWAYS TO DEEP DECARBONISATIONHighlights from the deep decarbonisation pathways reports
• Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project
• National blueprints for limiting warming to 2°C
• Independent research teams from 16 countries
• 3/4 of current CO2 emissions
• OECD, China, India, Brazil, South Africa, Mexico
• Goal: change climate policy discussion
• From incrementalism to transformation
• From policy abstractions to problem solving
• From opaqueness to transparency
• From conventional wisdom to concreteness2
page 2
Top fossil fuel emitters (per capita)
Countries have a broad range of per capita emissions reflecting their national circumstances China’s per capita emissions have passed the EU28 and are 43% above the global average
Source: CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2015; Global Carbon Budget 2015
1.7 t/p was
the target for
each DDPP
team in 2050
page 3
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Paris Agreement, Article
4, Paragraph 19
“All Parties should strive
to formulate and
communicate long-term
low greenhouse gas
emission development
strategies…”
What’s the practical value of an analysis out to 2050?
page 5Material Produced by Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. (www.ethree.com) page 5
Imagining a deeply
decarbonized U.S. Energy
System
U.S. Pathways Analysis
page 7
Reports available at http://usddpp.org
E3, UC Berkeley, LBNL, PNNL team
Technical Report, Nov. 2014
• What would it take for US to achieve 80%
GHG reduction below 1990 level by 2050?
• Is it technically feasible?
• What would it cost?
• What physical changes are required?
Policy Report, Nov. 2015
• What are the policy implications for the
US?
Material Produced by Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. (www.ethree.com) page 7
80% reduction in net CO2e
page 8
Electric Power Industry
Transportation
Industry
AgricultureCommercial
Residential
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
U.S
. G
ross
Gre
en
ho
use
Gas
Em
issi
on
s
(Tg
CO
2-e
qu
ival
en
t)
sinks
US GHG emissions by sector
gross
emissions
sink
net
emissions
• CO2 from energy in 2010 was 5405 MMT (17 tons/person)
• DDPP US 2050 target is 750 MMT (1.7 tons/person)
• Net 2050 CO2e target 1080 MMT max 330 from other sources
Material Produced by Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. (www.ethree.com) page 8
Scenario Design Constraints
page 9
• Infrastructure inertia
• Electric reliability
• Same energy services as EIA forecast
• Technology is commercial or near-commercial
• Environmental limits (biomass, hydro)
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
2010 2030 2050
GD…166% increase
0
100
200
300
400
500
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
40% increase
U.S. National Energy Modeling System and 2013 Annual Energy Outlook reference case
U.S. GDP (Trillion $2012)
U.S. population (Millions)
Material Produced by Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. (www.ethree.com) page 9
EnergyPATHWAYS Model
page 10
• Accounting tool, user-defined scenarios
• 80 demand sectors, 20 supply sectors
• Annual time steps with equipment lifetimes
• 9 US census divisions separately modeled
• Electricity dispatch, three US interconnects
New Vehicles by Vintage Total Stock by Year
Material Produced by Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. (www.ethree.com) page 10
5,153 5,639
746 740 747 741 -
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2014 2050Reference
2050 Mixed 2050 HighRenewables
2050 HighNuclear
2050 HighCCS
MM
T C
O2
Result: Multiple Pathways to Deeply Reduce U.S. Energy Emissions
11to
nn
es
CO
2e
0
10
20
2010 2030 2050
Per capita emissions
Cost ~ 1% GDP
(-0.2% − +1.8%)
Material Produced by Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. (www.ethree.com)
Pathways to Deep Decarbonization in the United States
page 11
Result: Deep Decarbonization is Affordable to U.S. Economy
page 12
• Net energy system cost in 2050 ~ 0.8% GDP (-0.2% to +1.8%)
• Does not include economic benefits of avoided pollution or climate damage
page 12
5 Key Elements of Low Carbon Energy Systems
page 13Material Produced by Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. (www.ethree.com) page 13
Result: Three Pillars Always Required
page 14
(MJ/$2005)
Material Produced by Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. (www.ethree.com) page 14Source: E3
Result: Key Changes in Physical Energy System
page 15page 15
Residential Energy Transition
page 16page 16
Light Duty Vehicle Fuel Mix
page 17page 17
Pathway Choices
page 18
• Renewables, nuclear, or CCS?
• Electricity balancing strategy?
• Future of natural gas pipeline?
• EV or FC vehicles?
• Biomass for transport fuel or pipeline gas?
• Building electrification or very high EE?
page 18
Result: Early Retirement is Not Required, But Timely Action Is
page 19
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Residential building
Electricity power plant
Industrial boiler
Heavy duty vehicle
Light duty vehicle
Space heater
Hot water heater
Electric lighting
Equipment/Infrastructure Lifetime (Years)
2015 2050
4 replacements
3 replacements
2 replacements
2 replacements
1 replacements
1 replacements
1 replacements
0 replacements
2030
• A car purchased today, is likely to replaced at most 2 times before 2050.
• A residential building constructed today, is likely to still be standing in 2050.
Material Produced by Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. (www.ethree.com) page 19
DDPP Summary of 16 Country Team Results
Aggregate emissions across DDPP country team scenarios
page 21
• Aggregate modeling consistent with a 2 degree scenario, although many emerging economies were not accounted for
• Most teams concluded it is both possible and affordable to reach the 1.7 tons/person target by midcentury
page 21
Average final energy consumption by fuel type across 16 country teams
page 22
• End-use electricity consumption doubles. This result was consistent across teams and is part of the third pillar of decarbonization (fuel switching)
• Coal, liquids, and natural gas consumption declines
• Bio/synthetic gas increases significantly (creates a net increase in gas consumption)
page 22
Average electricity emissions intensity across DDPP country teams
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• End use electrification is paired with major changes in electricity generation to create a decarbonizationstrategy
• Electricity strategies varied by country but were some combination of renewables, nuclear, and CCS
• Aggregate installation of CCS reached 76.7 GW per year by 2050
page 23
Technological learning from aggregate investments saved significant cost
• Applying conservative learning assumptions to technological deployment on the global aggregate investment reduced cost by nearly 50% when compared to a scenario where each country went alone.
page 24
Acknowledgements
• Thank you to Jim Williams, director of the DDPP, and Ben Haley, current head of the U.S. DDPP team and co-founder of Evolved Energy Research
• The U.S. DDPP work was preformed while at Energy and Environmental Economics (E3) with help and inspiration from many of my former colleagues – Snuller Price, Fredrich Kahrl, Jack Moore, Gabe Kwok, Sam Borgeson, Jamil Farbes, Elaine Hart, Amber Mahone, Rich Plevin, Katie Pickrell, Ren Orans
• Thank you also to our co-authors at partner organizations, Andrew Jones, Margaret Torn, and Haewon McJeon
page 25
THANK YOU
2443 Fillmore Street, No. 380‐5034
San Francisco, CA, 94115
(415) 580‐1804 [email protected] www.evolved.energy
deepdecarbonization.org
Current Energy System
page 27Material Produced by Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. (www.ethree.com)
2050 Energy System
page 28Material Produced by Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. (www.ethree.com)
Deep Decarbonization Problem-Solving: Some Novel Solutions
• Electricity used to produce hydrogen and synthetic methane balance variable generation (wind, solar) & provide lower carbon fuel
• Natural gas pipeline is partly decarbonized using gasified biomass and electricity-produced fuels with low lifecycle emissions
• Decarbonized pipeline gas is used to replace liquid fossil fuels in industry, heavy duty transport
• Biomass not used for ethanol because it is scarce and has better uses, such as biogas and biodiesel, while alternatives exist for LDV fuels
page 29Material Produced by Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. (www.ethree.com)
Small Change in Consumer Costs
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Monthly Incremental Costs
Material Produced by Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. (www.ethree.com)
PATHWAYS Model Methodology: Bottom-Up Energy Demand
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La
mp
s/B
ulb
s
Bil
lio
ns
T8
T12
Halogen
LED
CFL
Incandescent
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
2042
2044
2046
2048
2050
EJ
Total Residential
Final Energy for
Lighting
LEDs
CFLs
T12
0.00E+001.00E+122.00E+123.00E+124.00E+125.00E+126.00E+127.00E+128.00E+129.00E+121.00E+13
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Re
sid
en
tial
De
man
d
(lu
me
ns/
year
)
+
=
Lighting Stock Service Demand
Infrastructure stock rollover
model (keeps track of “stuff” e.g.
Number of light bulbs by type)
page 31Material Produced by Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. (www.ethree.com)
Electricity Increasingly Dominated by Non-Dispatchable Generation
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0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 2050
EJ
IntermediateEnergy Carriers
Industrial
Transportation
Commercial
ResidentialFossil
Nuclear
Hydro
Wind
CCS
Solar
Material Produced by Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. (www.ethree.com)
What technologies are the winners and losers? (demand side)
page 33
Scenario High Renewables High Nuclear High CCS Mixed
Electric
generation
~ 70% wind, solar,
geothermal
~40% nuclear ~55% CCS Mix of nuclear, CCS,
renewable
Fuel strategy Decarbonize pipeline gas
to replace liquid fuel
Hydrogen from
electricity to replace
liquid fuel
Limited fuel
switching, some
biofuels
Decarbonize pipeline gas
to replace liquid fuel
Main transport
fuel
Electricity, pipeline gas,
fossil diesel
Hydrogen, biofuel, fossil
diesel
Electricity, biodiesel Mix of hydrogen,
electricity, fossil, pipeline
gas
Light duty
vehicle
EV, PHEV FCV EV, PHEV Mix of EV, PHEV, FCV
Pipeline gas ~60% biomass, 15%
fossil NG, 15% synthetic
NG
~60% fossil NG, 35%
biomass
~80% fossil NG ~80% biomass,
7% hydrogen,
7% synthetic NG
Different Pathways to 80% Reduction
34Material Produced by Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. (www.ethree.com)
