Lisbon 2016 Climate Change Adaptation NEWacc2016.daemon/files... · What this presentation covers...
Transcript of Lisbon 2016 Climate Change Adaptation NEWacc2016.daemon/files... · What this presentation covers...
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Adapting Water and Other Infrastructure to Climate Change Challenges
David Satterthwaite, IIED
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A billion urban dwellers
Invisible in official records
Around one in seven of the world’s population
Their agenda for water and infrastructure?
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What this presentation covers
The four urban water agendas• Water and sanitation• Bulk water supplies• Waste water management• Flood avoidance and protection
In the context of climate change
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For resilient infrastructure systems:
REDUCE RISK FROM EXISTING HAZARDSwithstand, adapt, quick and cheap recovery
REDUCE RISK FOR PROJECTED/ANTICIPATED CHANGE IN HAZARDS AND EXPOSURE local contexts, global systems
LARGER SYSTEM CHANGE (infrastructure systems tightly coupled) THAT ALSO REMOVES HAZARDS development, DRR, adaptation and mitigation
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What this presentation does not cover
Instead of adding to the 100s of presentations on resilience and water infrastructure
FOCUS ON• Why massive failure in infrastructure provision in low‐ and
most middle‐income nationsWHEN• Acting on the four water agendas is so much in the public
good for everyone (industry, other businesses, population, health care, regional economy……)
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7972
32 33
0
25
50
75
100
World Developingcountries'
Leastdevelopedcountries
Sub‐SaharanAfrica
% of urban population with drinking water sources piped on premises in 2015
What about Habitat I?
The MDGs?
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0 20 40 60 80 100
NigeriaMarshall Islands
Central African RepublicGuinea‐BissauSierra Leone
HaitiTogo
MadagascarDemocratic Republic of the Congo
MyanmarUganda
ChadMozambiqueBurkina Faso
CameroonRwanda
United Republic of TanzaniaAfghanistan
AngolaBangladesh
GhanaIndonesia
MalawiMongolia
BeninZambiaGuinea
MaliEritrea
MauritaniaNigerKenya
BurundiNepal
West Bank and Gaza
Data drawn from the tables at the back of WHO/UNICEF JMP 2015.
% of urban population with water piped on premises, 2015
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0 20 40 60 80 100
West Bank and Gaza
Democratic Republic of the Congo
Nigeria
Zimbabwe
Dominican Republic
Namibia
Iraq
Albania
Haiti
Mongolia
Zambia
Kenya
Ghana
Madagascar
Papua New Guinea
Sierra Leone
Algeria
Montenegro
Central African Republic
Malawi
Jordan
Decline in % of urban population with water piped on premises 1990‐2015
Data drawn from the tables at the back of WHO/UNICEF JMP 2015.
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Most urban centres in sub‐Saharan Africa and much of Asia with hardly any or no sewers or covered drains
SANITATION AND DRAINS
Addis Ababa, Bamako, Benin, Brazzaville, Dar es Salaam, Douala, Freetown, Ibadan, Kaduna, Kinshasa, Kumasi, Lagos; Lubumbashi, Maiduguri, Mbuji‐Mayi, Port Harcourt, Yaounde, Zaria……….
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0 20 40 60 80 100
Lome
Freetown
Antananarivo
Kano
Kinshasa
Kampala
Ouagadougou
Porto Novo
Cotonou
Kigali
Niamey
Brazzaville
Lagos
Bamako
Ndjamena
Lilongwe
Kaduna
Lusaka
% of population with sewer connections to their home
For most countries, even lower levels of provision outside the larger cities
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Flooding and the city region
How many cities facing more serious floodsso many floods and their impacts unrecordedDesinventar: Impacts on infra/homes/livelihoods/assets/injuries
Much of the impact on those living in informal settlements‘good’ floodingrental markets (Dar and Dhaka)what households and communities do
Mostly not climate change (vast deficiencies in drainage and watershed management) but .....
Addressing river flooding usually needs good management in the region/upstream + cooperation with other jurisdictions
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Water shortages
Water shortages even where provision is so inadequate
Dar es Salaam: very large deficit in water availability – and most residents don’t have water piped to their home
Sao Paulo (wealthiest city in Latin America) and the water crisis
So many cities with unsustainable groundwater use and/or needing water drawn from far away
often with pumping+very high energy bills
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Urbanization beyond government capacitiesFailures even in wealthy cities: Why?
• Speed of change; difficult for government institutions to keep up
• Lack of attention by national governments and international agencies to strengthening urban governments
• No effective measures to increase supply and reduce cost of housing plots – so informal settlements (and infrastructure deficits) grow
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• local democracy + civil society demands for accountability
• stronger local governments with investment capacity• organized urban poor groups• middle class and business accepting need for urban
government acting in the public good • regional cooperation possible………..
Lack of pre‐conditions
WHAT DROVE CHANGE IN HIGH‐INCOME NATIONS – London, Manchester, New York….
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0,0
250,0
500,0
750,0
1000,0
Sub‐SaharanAfrica
North Africa Latin America& Caribbean
China India Rest of Asia
1950 2015
Urban populations (millions) for 1950 and 2015
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Urbanization and economicdevelopment
Changing pattern of large cities – a picture of where private capital investment is concentrating
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See this as spatial pattern of private investment
Places where private capital choose to invest
Again the speed of change in this
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Urbanization and economic development
• Urbanization strongly associated with economic growth
• All successful economies urbanized
• All high‐income and most upper‐middle income countries predominantly urbanized
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sss
Low- and middle-income nations; changes in the proportion of the workforce and the economy in industry and services and level of urbanization, 1960-2005
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Perc
ent
% GDP from industryand services% labour force inindustry and servicesLevel of urbanization
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Among the fastest growing cities (population, thousands)
Urban Agglomeration Country 1950 2015 2030
Shenzhen China 3 10 749 12 673
Dongguan China 92 7 435 8 701Abuja Nigeria 19 2 440 4 913
Malappuram India 25 2 216 3 600Zhuhai China 3 1 542 2 003Cixi China 3 1 303 1 829Suqian China 1 1 050 1 591Yiwu China 3 1 080 1 520Cancún Mexico 0 845 1 161
Heavy concentration of the world’s largest cities in the world’s largest economies
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Annual average increment in population 1970‐2015 (thous)Lagos 247Delhi 230Dhaka 217Kinshasa 187Karachi 183Beijing 163Shanghai 156Mumbai (Bombay) 150Al‐Qahirah (Cairo) 127Dar es Salaam 125Guangzhou 114Luanda 109Bangalore 104
Imagine you are head of infrastructure in these cities and this is the additional population needing infrastructure each year
Give up:Lagos: 5% water, 8% sewerKinshasa: less than 1% sewers
How complicated it is to provide and manage drainage
Drainage/flood protection requires control of land use changes
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Speed of change in many cities
Physical expansion (often into other jurisdictions)
Demands from influential businesses
Water consumption Waste water generation Volume and velocity of floods Loss of wetlands/water bodies Road vehicles……….
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How are cities viewed
NEGATIVE POSITIVEParasites on the economyand on rural areas
Leading innovation, social justice and economic success
Centres that concentrate and generate air and water pollution
Centres with the healthiest populations and low levels of air pollution
Driving climate change Centres that reconciles high quality of life with low emissions
Difference between them ‐ effective local governance with strong democracy and the capacity to act in the (local and global) common good
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Disconnect between what drives urbanization and governance
Economic success does not automatically bring • healthy cities• sustainable cities• inclusive cities
Or cities where low income groups can find accommodation in formal housing
OR CITIES ABLE TO ADAPT TO CLIMATE CHANGE
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CLIMATE CHANGE 2014: IMPACTS, ADAPTATION, AND VULNERABILITY
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CLIMATE CHANGE 2014: IMPACTS, ADAPTATION, AND VULNERABILITY
Human Settlements SectionChapter 8: Urban AreasChapter 9: Rural AreasChapter 10: Key Economic Sectors
and Services
http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg2/
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CLIMATE CHANGE 2014: IMPACTS, ADAPTATION, AND VULNERABILITY
What’s New?• Strong focus on urban areas
(& being allowed detailed coverage)• Scale of increase in literature
• Number of city case studies• Key roles of local authorities• Adaptation-development links
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Climate change adaptation, water and urban centres
• Altered precipitation and run off patterns• Often increasing flood water volumes and
velocities• Sea level rise and storm surges• More extreme weather (storms; droughts,
high temperatures)• Where water is constrained, competition
between urban and rural use
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What provides an urban centre with capacity to adapt to climate change% population with risk‐reducing infrastructure (paved roads, covered drains, piped water ….) & services (health care, emergency services, wastecollection, rule of law, DRR) % population in legal housing (meeting health & safety regulations) on safe sitesLocal government investment capacityBuilt environment able to withstand extreme weatherInstitutions to make this happen(especially for low‐income groups)Government capacity to work & invest in/manage city region
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The spectrum of urban adaptive capacity
[Source: Developed from Table 8.2 in IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (2014), Working Group II.]
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24 hour a day drinkable water and sanitationHousing meeting health and safety standardsPaved roads and storm and surface drainsRegular solid waste collection & drainage maintenanceHealth care within walking distanceEmergency services (fire, flood, injury…..)Insurance for home and possessionsWarning of stormsPolitical system to complain to if needed
Climate change adaptation and resilience at 33 Gauden Road, London
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% population with risk‐reducing infrastructure & services
0‐30% served
Most living in illegal, unsafe, unhealthy housing
% in legal, safe, healthy housing
Population One billion (most urban centres in low‐income & many in middle‐income nations)
Infrastructure deficit Enormous ‐Much of built up area lacking infrastructure
Local government investment capacity Very little or none
Disasters from extreme weather Very common
Examples Dar es Salaam, Kinshasa, Karonga
Implications for CC adaptation Difficult to see it happening
Capacity to manage city region Very limited
Urban centres with very little adaptive capacity
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% population with risk‐reducing infrastructure & services
30‐70% served;
30‐70% living in illegal, unsafe, unhealthy housing
% in legal, safe, healthy housing
Population 1.5 billion
Infrastructure deficit Very large
Local govt. investment capacity Some
Disasters from extreme weather Common
Examples Nairobi, Mumbai ……
Implications for CC adaptation Difficult & difficult politically
Capacity to manage city region Difficult
Urban centres with some ‘bounce‐back’/adaptive capacity
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% population with risk‐reducing infrastructure & services
70‐100% served; most of those inadequately served in informal settlements
% living in legal, safe, healthy housing
Population 1 billion (all urban centres in high‐income and many in middle‐incomenations)
Infrastructure deficit None /very little
Local government investment capacity Good
Disasters from extreme weather Uncommon
Examples Many cities in Latin America & Asia; all cities in high income nations
Implications for CC adaptation Adaptive capacity but has to be acted on
Capacity to manage city region Always difficult to get consensus
Urban centres with adequate ‘bounce‐back’ adaptive capacity, if acted on
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430 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
US Local governments (average)Porto Alegre (Brazil)
Belo Horizonte (Brazil)Sevilla (Spain)
Canoas (Brazil)Cascais (Portugal)
Ilo (Peru)Medellin (Colombia)
Guarulhos (Brazil)eThekwini (South Africa)
Windhoek (Namibia)Cape Town (South Africa)
Varzea Paulista (Brazil)Johannesburg (South Africa)
Walvis Bay (Namibia)Rosario (Argentina)San Antonio (Chile)
La Serena (Chile)Quillota (Chile)
Chengdu (China)Iztapalapa (Mexico)
Addis Ababa (Ethiopia)Maputo (Mozambique)
Kigali (Rwanda)Ampasy Nahampoana (Madagascar)
Dar es Salaam (Tanzania)Kampala (Uganda)
Ouagadougou (Burkina Faso)Dakar (Senegal)
Saint-Louis (Senegal)Dondo (Mozambique)
Accra (Ghana)Rufisque Est (Senegal)
Bamako (Mali)
Municipal annual budget per inhabitant (US$)
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Innovative cities• Rosario• Durban• Iloilo, Manizales, Solo …..
Different starting points: Environment, disaster risk, development…
Common features• Competent local government• Investment capacity• Commitment to reach/work with low‐income groups• Understand importance of DRR and of socio‐
ecological systems• Most able to work in wider region
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Very little adaptive capacity
Some capacity;
needs to be enhanced
Adaptive capacity if acted on
Moving to resilience
Transform‐ational
adaptation??
How well are urban centres worldwide doing in relation to adaptive capacity
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Key risks Adaptation issues & prospects Climate driversRisk & potential for adaptation
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KEY ISSUES
How much adaptation can reduce risks
But only with mitigation
Strong adaptation ineffective at risk reduction with 4 degree temperature rise
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Poverty reduction & universal
provision of infra+services
Climate change
adaptation
Climate change
mitigation
Disaster risk reduction
The urban agendas
Economic success
Making this work for the billion in informal settlements
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Poverty reduction & universal provision of infra+ services
Disaster risk reduction
The urban agendas
Large overlaps in addressing risks, especially in low‐ & lower‐middle income nations
Some overlaps in what provides resilience• For low‐income
households• For cities
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Poverty reduction & universal provision of infra+services
Climate change adaptation
Disaster risk reduction
The urban agendas
Large overlaps especially in low‐ and lower‐middle income nations
ALL THREE CONCERNED WITH ADDRESSING LOCAL RISKS
Importance of local citizen/civil society pressure & organization
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Poverty reduction & universal provision of services
Climate change adaptation
Disaster risk reduction
The urban agendas
Climate change mitigation
Not much overlap with climate change mitigation
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Climate change mitigation
Poverty reduction & universal provision of services
Climate change
adaptation
Disaster risk reduction
• BUT in long‐term ‘dangerous’ climate change has profound influence on the other three
• Date when even strong adaptation cannot keep down risks without mitigation
• Transformative adaptation
The urban agendas
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• Need urban governments able to act and invest in (or manage the investment in) risk‐reducing infrastructure and services• Able to respond to and work with those poorly
served or not served by water and waste‐water infrastructure
• Acccountable to their inhabitants • Learn from cities that have made progress• Structure climate finance & development finance to
support this • Fit within urban government commitments to the SDGs
and the Paris Agreement
In conclusion
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Sustainable Development Goals • Good on climate change adaptation & mitigation• But most goals+targets+indicators suggested for
development, DRR, adaptation and mitigation depend on local governments
Local governments need to take initiative• Make their SDG commitments & targets• Work with their low‐income population• Get full recognition from national governments • Urban governments the key players in
implementing the SDGs and the Paris Agreement
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0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000
NorwayItaly
LuxumbourgAustria
GermanyHungaryLithuaniaSlovakiaBulgariaGreeceCyprus
ArgentinaAlbania
MoldovaIndonesia
MaltaCosta RicaMongoliaParaguay
GuatemalaPakistan
BeninBurkina Faso
Togo
Expenditure per capita local government (US$)