Lessons learned on effective,

strategic weather communicationon social-digital

media

Jason Samenow, Capital Weather Gang

National Tropical Weather Conference

April 10, 2015

Talk outline

• About CWG• Some digital weather communication best

practices– Snowstorm case– Sandy case

• Social media– Sandy case– Dealing with armchair meteorologists

• Wrap-up

My journey

• Weather obsessed since age 10

• Undergraduate degree, U. Va.

• Graduate degree, Wisconsin

• Environmental Protection Agency, 10 years

• CapitalWeather.com Capital Weather Gang at the Washington Post

@jsamenow on Twitter

• Washington Post’s weather team• One full-time managing editor, one deputy editor• 20 outside freelance contributors• Content spans print, web, mobile devices,

includes radio hits & video• Broad mix of content

– Local forecasts and commentary– National and international weather stories– Weather photography, history, astronomy, space

weather, weather policy, climate change & more• Emphasis

– Decision support: Communicating uncertainty – Engagement

http://www.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang

About the Capital Weather Gang

@capitalweather on Twitter

Basic formula for effective communication

• Ed Maibach, George Mason:

– Simple, clear message– Repeat often– Delivered by trusted source(s)

Maibach adds if you want people to do something w/ info make it:

Easy…Fun…Popular

@maibached on Twitter

Digital media: Some personal lessons learned (1/2)

• Headline and lead in to any discussion needs to be strongest, most compelling (people have short attention spans)

– Newspaper readers read 56% of the headlines, but only 13% of the stories are at least half-read. (Joe Romm, Language Intelligence)

– Stories w/ boring headlines become irrelevant

• Layer content, wonkiest material deep down– Lead with most important info.– Define technical terms, limit acronyms– Break down, don’t dumb down complex thoughts– Use analogies/metaphors

• William Clark: 3 building blocks of successful scientific assessments- credibility, legitimacy, and salience– Add good story telling

Digital media: Some personal lessons learned (2/2)

• Show off voice, personality, enthusiasm for science

• Be a “mirror” of science community

• Learn from strong communicators

• Practice makes perfect

• Be humble

Some tips from Joe Romm’s book: Language Intelligence

• Short words are the best words

• If you don’t repeat, you can’t compete. Repetition and rhyming help people remember your message.

• The golden rule of speech-making is: “Tell ‘em what you’re going to tell ‘em; tell ‘em; then tell ‘em what you told ‘em.”

• If you want to be more noticed and remembered, use more figures of speech (metaphors/analogies.)

“Language Intelligence: Lessons on Persuasion from Jesus, Shakespeare, Lincoln, and Lady Gaga”

Effective weather communication

• Confidence levels in forecasts

• Scenarios for complex, high impact events

• Probabilistic information

• Compelling visuals

• Specifics on timing, location

• Accountability

• Learn by doing, seek feedback

Snow case

• Learning from a bad forecast: The Snowquester, March 6, 2013

Snowquester (March 6, 2013):

The forecast we issued Reality

A bad deterministic forecast for a high impact storm can be devastating for consumer trust

“Never has there been an industry which spends so much time churning out so much bull”

“ I can tell you that weather predictions have always been a standing joke. It's all a scam to increase ratings on the weather shows, and to reward advertisers”

“As far as I am concerned, all of our local meteorologist should be fired for cause. Why? Because they are wrong more often than right and costs us big money.”

From: Snowquester: when forecast information failshttp://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/snowquester-when-forecast-information-fails/2013/03/07/5d0d77ae-873b-11e2-9d71-f0feafdd1394_blog.html

But readers also told us they’d welcome more honesty, uncertainty, probabilistic information

Brad Panovich, WCNC

The best forecast for Snowquester was one we could not issue with a straight face, and one most Washingtonians would have ridiculed: Rain, sleet, and/or snow likely - heavy at times - with snow accumulations of 0-14 inches. “Yes. Why not? The rain/snow line will be wobbling all over so that's all you can say. If it's the best, it's the best. Say that, and then give your probabilities. ” “What does ridicule have to do with it? I support the CWG, but this business about how meteorologists have to depart from truth and accuracy because they're worried about their popularity ratings I don't understand. Are they scientists or entertainers?”

From: Snowquester: when forecast information failshttp://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/snowquester-when-forecast-information-fails/2013/03/07/5d0d77ae-873b-11e2-9d71-f0feafdd1394_blog.html

The winter after Snowquester

Sandy

• A successful scenario approach

8 days out: a heads-up

5-7 days outProvide general level sense of what could

happen“Although a historic storm is a possibility, the storm could deliver just a glancing blow or even miss the East Coast entirely. And for residents of the mid-Atlantic (including Washington, D.C. and points further south), a direct hit is not particularly likely although it cannot be ruled out.

“Residents of the Northeast, perhaps, should be most concerned. The European model - which did the best job simulating hurricane Isaac’s track in late August - delivers a devastating blow from central New Jersey to southern New England (including New York City)”

(http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/tropical-storm-sandy-scenarios-northeast-smash-or-out-to-sea-most-likely/2012/10/23/29e6f7ce-1d41-11e2-9cd5-b55c38388962_blog.html)

4 days out: Communicate 4 scenarios

• SCENARIO 1 - NJ TO Long Island landfall: Indirect hit, major impacts [for DC] (45 percent chance)

• SCENARIO 2 - Mid-Atlantic landfall: Worst case – direct hit, severe impacts (30 percent chance)

• SCENARIO 3 – New England landfall: Glancing blow, minor impacts (20 percent chance)

• SCENARIO 4 – Out to sea: FEW IMPACTS (5 percent chance)

(http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/hurricane-sandy-scenarios-for-washington-dc/2012/10/25/0ebdb0f2-1ec5-11e2-9cd5-b55c38388962_blog.html)

3 days outCommunicate 3 scenarios

• SCENARIO 1 - Landfall from Virginia Beach to the Delmarva: Worst case (1 in 3 chance)

• SCENARIO 2 – Landfall over south Jersey: Almost direct hit (1 in 3 chance)

• SCENARIO 3 - Landfall between northern New Jersey and southern New England: Indirect hit (1 in 3 chance)

(http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/washington-dc-will-not-escape-hurricane-sandy-latest-storm-scenarios/2012/10/26/19a6c5b8-1f8c-11e2-9cd5-b55c38388962_blog.html)

2 days outCommunicate 2 scenarios

• SCENARIO 1- Landfall from northern Delmarva to northern New Jersey: Near direct hit (70 percent chance, very bad case)

• SCENARIO 2 - Landfall from southern to central Delmarva: Direct hit (30 percent chance, worst case)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/washington-dc-braces-for-hurricane-sandy-the-bad-and-the-ugly-storm-scenarios/2012/10/27/f7f9abde-2052-11e2-9cd5-b55c38388962_blog.html

The day beforeDetailed deterministic forecast

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/hurricane-sandy-and-washington-dc-detailed-storm-timeline-maps-and-frequent-questions/2012/10/28/2c24af1a-2127-11e2-ac85-e669876c6a24_blog.html

Social media is powerful tool for science communication

• Two way conversation

• Why does social media work? – Instant– We like to share– Gives people a voice– Access to experts, influencers

• If you want to communicate effectively, you must use social media to be relevant and reach a broad audience

• Social media is transforming and revolutionizing weather and science reporting and user engagement– It’s real-time and all the time– It’s interactive– It can greatly amplify reach of message

Sandy social media case

Instagram via NYNJ Port Authority

Sandy closes in:Warnings, prep tips, day before

“….if you're riding out the storm in a house surrounded by trees, stay on the opposite side of the house from the wind on a low floor.” – Bryan Norcross, The Weather Channel

Sandy closes in, day before: Life-saving information goes viral

“If you are still reluctant [to evacuate], think about your loved ones…” – Gary Szatkowski, Philadelphia (Mt. Holly) NWS office

Sandy hours awayConcise, effective risk communication

Sandy washes ashore: flood of photos – visual confirmation

Estimate: 10 pictures tagged #Sandy each second posted to Instagram

Sandy strikesGround truth: Constant updates on water

levels in NYC

Social media successes during Sandy

• Viral propagation of preparedness and impacts information

• Photos of the storm's impacts in near-real time, as well as pertinent data, such as the water level at The Battery demonstrated storm’s seriousness, validated forecastsFreedman: “In NYC, television coverage was hampered

by the difficulty of following such a rapidly unfolding and dangerous event on the ground. User-generated content actually was better.” 

• Emergency responders used Twitter to locate those in need of rescuing, urgent supplies, etc.

Sandy strikesSocial media sore points

Inaccurate Tweets

Fake pics

NY Times synthesis of Twitter value during Sandy

The New York Times on the usefulness of Twitter during Sandy:

“As the storm bore down, Twitter got busy and very, very serious. “...It is hard to data-mine the torrent – some estimates suggested there

were three and a half million tweets with the hashtag #Sandy

“...Twitter not only keeps you in the data stream, but because you can contribute and re-tweet, you feel as if you are adding something even though Mother Nature clearly has the upper hand. The activity of it, the sharing aspect, the feeling that everyone is in the boat and rowing, is far different from consuming mass media.”

How Hurricane Sandy Slapped the Sarcasm Out of Twitter

http://mediadecoder.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/31/how-sandy-slapped-the-snark-out-of-twitter/

The armchair meteorologist problem

• Social media gives everyone a voice, irrespective of credentials

• High school kids, weather amateurs, (pros too) can misuse, misinterpret model and push out unreliable info that spreads virally

What should digital and broadcast meteorologists do?

• Confront? Ignore? Engage constructively w/ bad actors?“pointless to expose and shame…It’s a never- ending and unwinnable game of whack-a-mole. ”

“Focus on educating audience on limitations of weather forecast”

(http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/08/20/hurricane-hype-is-here-to-stay-forecasters-must-adapt/)

NHC speaks out…

“Now that we have entered the heart of the hurricane season, there is an increase in the Internet hype around disturbances that NHC is monitoring. Given the long lead times involved, the wide range of possible outcomes, and the historically poor and erratic performance of guidance models with weak disturbances, there is no reliable science to forecast potential impacts to specific locations that would be more than a week away.

. . .

“…The bottom line really is: be alert, be prepared, but also be wary of long-range projections that go beyond what the science can offer. And make the NOAA National Hurricane Center www.hurricanes.gov your calm, clear, and trusted source for official forecast and warning information on tropical cyclones.”

https://www.facebook.com/NWSNHC/photos/a.126275484104607.22530.112957945436361/734769166588566/?type=1

•https://www.facebook.com/NWSNHC/photos/a.126275484104607.22530.112957945436361/734769166588566/?type=1

Some social media tips

• Find someone to get you started, dive in, and learn by doing

• Be responsive: sustained commitment to engagement required to become trusted source, build audience

• Only re-tweet or re-publish trusted or verifiable sources

• Mistakes will happen, just correct the record as quickly as possible; watch out for “fake” pics

• Provide as much temporal and geographic specificity as possible for weather info.

• Engage with the community, share other voices• Integrate compelling visuals• Demonstrate passion for your subject matter, be

creative, incorporate humor when appropriate

Closing thoughts: Embrace change

Washington Post Executive Editor Martin Baron on journalism’s transition from print to digital:

“The forces at work don’t care about how we prefer to do our jobs, how easily we adjust to change, how much we have to learn. They don’t care about any extra workload.

“This transformation is going to happen no matter what. And there is only one realistic choice available: We can do what we must to adapt and – ideally – thrive. Or not — in which case we are choosing to fail.

“I like to remind people what has happened in only the last decade because it’s easy to forget:

(http://www.washingtonpost.com/pr/wp/2015/04/08/washington-post-executive-editor-martin-baron-on-journalisms-transition-from-print-to-digital/)

@postbaron on Twitter

• High-speed broadband became pervasive only in 2004, 2005, making possible the communications we take for granted today. It allowed photos to load fast and instant viewing of videos — and it allows mobile connection to the web.• Google didn’t go public until 2004. Today, there are more than 3 billion searches a day on Google.• Facebook was founded in 2004. Now it has more than 1.3 billion monthly active users.• YouTube was founded in 2005. More than 1 billion people now visit YouTube each month.• Twitter was founded in 2006. A half-billion tweets are sent every day.• Kindle was introduced in 2007. Three in 10 Americans now read an e-book.• Apple introduced the iPhone in June, 2007. Today 2 billion people worldwide use smartphones.• Instagram was founded in 2009.• Whatsapp was founded in 2009 and last year was sold for $19 billion to Facebook.• The iPad was introduced in January, 2010.• Snapchat wasn’t launched until 2011. It’s now valued at $10 billion or more.

Baron: “If this pace of change unnerves you, there is no consolation. Things will only get faster. And for those who resist the change rather than embrace it, there will be no forbearance or forgiveness. Their destiny is to be pushed aside and forgotten. That is the brutal truth.”

Thank you!

Contact

Jason Samenow, Weather Editor - Washington Postsamenowj@washpost.com - 202.334.9937

Blog: http://www.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergangTwitter: @capitalweatherFacebook: http://www.facebook.com/capitalweather