LECTURE, PART II

Economy and Politics

How well are the SEA economies doing?

Look only at a few statistics, for HDI in 2010:#1 Norway, .938; #4 US, .902#27 Singapore, .846; #59 Malaysia, .744;#94 Thailand, .654; #100 Philippines, .638;#111 Indonesia, .6; #116 Vietnam, .572;then Lao, Cambodia, Myanmar

And a few more…

HDI scores 1970 2010 Gains % (rank)

Gains value

Cambodia .303 .544

China .349 .718 3 2

Indonesia .369 .686 3

Lao .292 .574 5 5

Philippines .548 .681

Vietnam .385 .656

Why we should be surprised

Conditions at independenceSubsequent political conflicts

Stateness

Predicting life opportunitiesHistorical legacies

mandalagalactic politytheater state

Performance on ROL, educationAnd yet…

Political economy snapshots

CambodiaIndonesiaVietnamThe PhilippinesMalaysiaMyanmar

Cambodia

Hun Sen PM since 1984Garment industry employed 300,00057% in povertyLowest HDI other than MyanmarForeign aid 2011 $1 billion

Indonesia

SBY re-elected 2009SEA’s most successful democracy?Corruption, poor bureaucracy, bottlenecksRe-think on decentralization?Poverty rate down to 14%

Vietnam

11th Party Congress, early this yearPM Nguyen Tan Dung remains

VCP Sec-Gen Nguyen Phu TrongInflation, deficits; Vinashin collapseManufacturing employment

The Philippines

Gloria Arroyo gone; another Aquino2009 electionsOverseas remittancesFamily planning

Malaysia

Barisan Nasional lost two-thirds majority 2008

PM Najib Tun Razak April 2009Patronage model outmoded?Reforms in NEP?Vision 2020Emigration concerns

Myanmar

Than Shwe stepped downLate 2010 electionsNew constitutionGrounds for hopes?

Readings

Asian Survey, Vol.51, No.1www.atimes.com (Asia Times Online)www.asiasentinel.comAsia Development Bank, Asian Development

Outlook, 2011