Le Duc National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecast
description
Transcript of Le Duc National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecast
A short range ensemble prediction system
applied in TC forecast
Le DucNational Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecast
Jeju, 05 - 2009
Motivation
•The success of SREPS in other centers (SREPS in NCEP, COSMO-LEPS in ECMWF, SREPS in INM, …):
•The useful information of EPS in storm movement forecast (ECMWF EPS, NCEP EPS, JMA EPS)
•SREF can detect the occurrence of extreme phenomena like heavy rainfall, heat wave, …
Method
•Breeding of growing mode (NCEP)
•Singular vectors (ECMWF)
•Observation perturbations (CMC)
•Ensemble transform Kalman filter
•Ensemble transform
We take the multi-model, multi-analysis approach.
SREPS description
•4 times per day, 72h forecast (00Z, 12Z), 48h forecast (06Z, 18Z)
•output format: netcdf (interpolated to a common area)
•parallel post processing (graphics)
•access through intranet
Computational resources
PC Cluster 16 nodes, 4 cores per node, 8G RAM per node:•BOLAM: 3 nodes•Eta: 4 nodes•HRM: 3 nodes•WRFNMM: 6 nodes
Dell 2 CPUs, 4 cores per CPU, 16G RAM: pre and post processing
Website
Stamp map: storm tracks
A member forecast
Strike probability maps
Point accumulated strike probability charts
Example: TC Higos
Stamp map: 06h precipitation
Precipitation probability maps
EPSgram
Largest value
Upper quartile
Lower quartile
Median
Smallest value
Interpretationof boxplots
Imageof PDF
Future work: new website
Future work: NAEFS
Future works
•Verification
•Post-processing: bias correction, BMA or NGM
•A specific SREPS for TC forecast: 5 models BoLAM, BRAMS, HRM, MM5, WRF-ARW, storm target domain
•Clustering
Thank you