LargeCaps vs SMidCaps · 2021. 2. 16. · GE KO MSFT XOM INTC MSFT CSCO GE INTC XOM XOM WMT PG MSFT...

Style Guide:LargeCaps vs SMidCaps

Yardeni Research, Inc.

July 9, 2021

Dr. Edward Yardeni516-972-7683

[email protected]

Joe Abbott732-497-5306

[email protected]

Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com

thinking outside the box

Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents

July 9, 2021 / LargeCaps vs SMidCaps www.yardeni.com


LargeCaps vs SMidCaps 3-12

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022150

950

1750

2550

3350

4150

4950

150

950

1750

2550

3350

4150

4950

S&P 500/400/600 STOCK PRICE INDEXES(daily, ratio scale)

7/2

S&P Stock Price IndexesS&P 500 (4352.34)S&P 400 (2709.57)S&P 600 (1369.68)

Source: Standard & Poor’s.

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Figure 1.

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022.1

.2

.3

.4

.5

.6

.7

.8

.9

1.0

.1

.2

.3

.4

.5

.6

.7

.8

.9

1.0

7/2

STYLE RATIOS: SMIDCAPS DIVIDED BY LARGECAPS(daily)

7/2

S&P 400 divided by S&P 500S&P 600 divided by S&P 500


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Figure 2.

LargeCaps vs SMidCaps

Page 3 / July 9, 2021 / LargeCaps vs SMidCaps www.yardeni.com


2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022250

500

750

1000

1250

1500

1750

2000

250

500

750

1000

1250

1500

1750

2000

S&P 500/400/600 FORWARD REVENUES(ratio scale, consensus analysts estimates in dollars, weekly)

6/24

S&P 500 (1554.33)S&P 400 (1713.26)S&P 600 (1168.57)

* Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through December 2005, then weekly.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Figure 3.

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 202410

50

90

130

170

210

250

10

50

90

130

170

210

250

S&P 500/400/600 FORWARD EARNINGS(dollars per share, ratio scale)

7/1

Forward Earnings*S&P 500 LargeCap (202.57)S&P 400 MidCap (151.71)S&P 600 SmallCap (77.11)

* Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

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Figure 4.




95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24.10

.15

.20

.25

.30

.35

.40

.10

.15

.20

.25

.30

.35

.40

7/2

RELATIVE INDEXES: S&P 600 DIVIDED BY S&P 500(ratio)

Rising line indicates thatSmallCaps outperforming LargeCaps

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Source: Standard & Poor’s and Haver Analytics.

Figure 5.

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-25

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

275

300

325

350

375

400

425

-25

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

275

300

325

350

375

400

425

S&P FORWARD EARNINGS PER SHARE(weekly, March 5, 2009=0)

7/1

Forward Earnings*S&P 500 LargeCap (206.7)S&P 400 MidCap (274.1)S&P 600 SmallCap (362.3)

* 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Time-weighted average of the current year’s and next year’s consensus forecast.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

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Figure 6.




2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20222

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

S&P FORWARD PROFIT MARGINS*(using analysts average earnings and sales forecasts, percent) 7/1

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Forward Profit Margins*S&P 500 (13.0)S&P 400 (8.4)S&P 600 (6.3)

* Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current and next year using forward earnings divided by forward revenues.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv and Standard & Poor’s.

Figure 7.

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20228

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

FORWARD P/E RATIOS FOR S&P STOCK PRICE INDEXES*(daily)

7/9

7/9

S&P 500 LargeCap (21.6)S&P 400 MidCap (17.8)S&P 600 SmallCap (17.6)

* Daily stock price index divided by 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv and Standard & Poor’s.

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Figure 8.




90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23.7

.8

.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

.7

.8

.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

S&P 500 RATIO: EQUAL-WEIGHTED TO MARKET-CAP-WEIGHTED

7/9

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Note: Shaded red areas are S&P 500 bear market declines of 20% or more. Yellow areas are bull markets.Source: Haver Analytics and Standard & Poor’s.

Figure 9.

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 231.8

1.9

2.0

2.1

2.2

2.3

2.4

1.8

1.9

2.0

2.1

2.2

2.3

2.4

RATIO OF S&P 500 TO S&P 100 STOCK PRICE INDEXES

7/9

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Note: Shaded red areas are S&P 500 bear market declines of 20% or more. Yellow areas are bull markets.Source: Haver Analytics and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.

Figure 10.




Figure 11.

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24200

1400

2600

3800

500062007400

7/9S&P 500 STOCK PRICE INDEXES(ratio scale)

Market-cap-weighted (4369.55)

Equal-weighted (6175.83)

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.6

.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

7/9

S&P 500 RATIO: EQUAL-WEIGHTED TOMARKET-CAP-WEIGHTED

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24100

600

1100

1600

2100

26003100


Market-cap-weighted (2706.42)Equal-weighted (2159.56)

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.55

.60

.65

.70

.75

.80

.85

.90

7/9


90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 2450

450

850

1250

16502050


Market-cap-weighted (1359.58)Equal-weighted (1690.73)

Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

1.15

1.20

1.25

1.30

7/9

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1

2

3

4

1

2

3

4

7/2

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20222

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

7/2

S&P 500/400 (1.61)

S&P 500/600 (3.18)

STYLE RATIOS: MARKET WEIGHTED PRICE INDEX (daily)


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Figure 12.

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23.4

.6

.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

.4

.6

.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

7/7

7/7yardeni.com

STYLE RATIOS: MARKET CAP(weekly)

S&P 500 Market-Cap Weighted/Equal-Weighted (0.7)S&P 100/500 (0.5)

Source: Haver Analytics and Standard & Poor’s.

Figure 13.




94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 235

10

15

20

25

30

35

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

GEKO

MSFTXOMINTC

MSFTCSCO

GEINTCXOM

XOMWMT

PGMSFT

JNJ

AAPLXOMWMTMSFT

GOOGLAAPLAMZNMSFT

GOOGLBRKb

AAPLMSFTAMZN

GOOGLFB

7/2

S&P 500 MARKET CAP: PERCENT SHARE OF TOP 3 AND TOP 5 COMPANIES(weekly, percent)

7/2

Top 5 (24.2)Top 3 (16.8)

Source: Yardeni Research using Standard & Poors and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

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Figure 14.

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 225

10

15

20

25

30

35

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

GEKO

MSFTXOMINTC

MSFTCSCO

GEINTCXOM

XOMWMT

PGMSFT

JNJ

AAPLXOMWMTMSFT

GOOGLAAPLAMZNMSFT

GOOGLBRKb

AAPLMSFTAMZN

GOOGLFB

7/2

S&P 500 MARKET CAP: SHARE OF TOP 3 & TOP 5 COMPANIES(percent, weekly)

7/2

Top 5 (24.2)Top 3 (16.8)

Note: Shaded red areas are S&P 500 bear market declines of 20% or more. Blue shaded areas are correction declines of 10% to less than 20%.Yellow areas are bull markets.Source: Yardeni Research using Standard & Poor’s and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

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Figure 15.




90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23.5

.6

.7

.8

.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

.5

.6

.7

.8

.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

7/9

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STYLE RATIO:S&P 500 MARKET-CAP-WEIGHTED TO EQUAL-WEIGHTED STOCK PRICE INDEXES

Source: Haver Analytics and Standard & Poor’s.

Figure 16.

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23.42

.44

.46

.48

.50

.52

.54

.56

.42

.44

.46

.48

.50

.52

.54

.56

7/9

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STYLE RATIO:S&P 100 TO S&P 500 STOCK PRICE INDEXES

Source: Haver Analytics and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.

Figure 17.




2017 2018 2019 2020 2021-25

0

25

50

75

100

125

-25

0

25

50

75

100

125S&P PRICE INDEXES(November 8, 2016 = 100)

S&P 500 (104.2)S&P 400 (78.8)S&P 600 (87.3)

Latest data thru: 07/09/21


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Figure 18.




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LargeCaps vs SMidCaps · 2021. 2. 16. · GE KO MSFT XOM INTC MSFT CSCO GE INTC XOM XOM WMT PG MSFT...

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