LAN Daya Saing ASEAN 2015 Sep2011 - - Get a Free
Transcript of LAN Daya Saing ASEAN 2015 Sep2011 - - Get a Free
Mendorong Daya SaingIndonesia,Mendorong Daya SaingIndonesia,Menyongsong ASEAN Economic Community 2015Menyongsong ASEAN Economic Community 2015
By: Hendri Saparini, Ph.DManaging Directorg g
ECONIT Advisory Group in [email protected]© Pusd
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GLOBALISASI REGIONALISASIGLOBALISASI, REGIONALISASI DAN POSISI PENTING ASIA
TIMUR
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Asia Pra-Krisis: The Flying Geese
Before the crisis, “the flying geese” phenomenon was soaring throughout Asia and influencing the Pacific Rim economies.
The formation resembled flying geese, headed by Japan, while the rest of the group followed.
3Note:
“Flying Geese” is a concept developed by Kaname Akamasu that best describes the economic structure of Asia before the crisis.
y g g , y p , g pCountries toward the front tend to transfer “older” industries to countries at the back.
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Krisis Asia Mengakhiri Flying Geese
4Asian Economic Crisis in 1997-1998: The End of “Flying Geese”, The
end of the good old days of the Asian miracle
Source: BBC
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Asia Paska-Krisis: The Regional Squadrons
After the crisis, squadrons of the former flying geese, who increasingly drive regional integration.
SAARCSAARC Squadron China Squadron
Korea Squadron Japan
S dSquadron
5ASEAN Squadron
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China dan India: Penentu Asia Timur
Manufacturing giant with the lowest Strong technology and service
industry
China India Manufacturing giant with the lowest
prices Hybrid communist-capitalist model that
enables development Solid primary schools
industry Relatively efficient capital
market Strong private sector and legal
frameworkY kf
Streng
Streng
Infrastructure that lures foreign investment
Good distribution of wealth with higher per-capita income
Younger workforce Growing population
Great university system Strong entrepreneurial culture
Attracts higher prices
gths
gths
g p
Red tape, corruption, tough labor laws and bureaucracy all
d i
We
We
deter investment Woeful infrastructure
Lackluster primary education system
Exclusive growth environment
Heavy reliance on low prices Weak financial system Inefficient capital system Slow population growth
eaknesse
eaknesse
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Exclusive growth environment to the rich
The privatization of key industries has stopped
Slow population growthes s
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ASEAN Penentu Masa Depan Asia Timur
ASEAN
Neutral High Neutral Position Bargaining
Power
ASEAN i t id dAttractive Single Regional Market
Competitive Regional
Production Base
ASEAN is not considered a “threat” to China, India, Japan,
South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand
Huge market High consumption Less competitive
Smooth flow of goods, services, and people under FTA
Abundance of natural
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resources Low labor cost
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ASEAN COMMUNITY 2015:ASEAN COMMUNITY 2015:Bersatu Pasti
Menguntungkan Semua?g g
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Menuju ASEAN Community 2015
ASEAN Security ASEAN Economic ASEAN Socio-
ASEAN COMMUNITY 2015
ASEAN Security Community (ASC)
ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) Cultural Community
(ASCC)
The Peaceful, Prosperous, and People-Centric ASEAN
Single Regional MarketRegional Production Base
Dual Track Strategy
Production/Supply Consumption/Demand
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Dual Track Strategy
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Apa Arti ASEAN Integration?
Tariffs will be eliminated and non-tariff b i ill b d ll h d tbarriers will be gradually phased out
Rules and regulations will be simplified and harmonized
ASEAN investors will be permitted to invest in t f l l d t f i d th
All barriers to the free flow of goods, services, capital, and skilled labor
are removed sectors formerly closed to foreigners and the services sector will also be opened up
are removed
The region will become a
Applicable international standards and practices are followed, and policies on intellectual property rights and competition are The region will become a
more level playing field put in place Regional infrastructure will be more developed
with the expansion of transportation, telecommunications and energy linkages
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Tren Raksasa Korporasi Dunia dan ASEAN Integration
Global trends in manufacturing indicate a shift towards adopting flexible production techniques and integrated production chains
It is no longer cost effective for all manufacturing activities to be done in in-house or in a single country
MNCs are integrating their manufacturing activities across several locations MNCs are integrating their manufacturing activities across several locations
MNCs are not only seeking large consumer markets but also regional sites where they can establish efficient production networks
12Regional Production Base
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Diperlukan Balanced Approach
Benefits to MNCs Targeting more sales
Benefits to Local Companies More export opportunities to Targeting more sales
volume in the ASEAN market
Components procurement on an ASEAN-wide basis
More export opportunities to ASEAN market
ASEAN-wide expansion opportunity for corporate growth strategyT h l d fi i l More product
specialization to achieve economies of scale
Greater emphasis on profitability using ASEAN-
Technology and financial support opportunities from MNCs
ASEAN-wide pool of talentprofitability using ASEANwide operations
A Balanced Approach
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A Balanced Approach
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Komoditas Ekspor ASEAN Ke China:Penyangga Kebutuhan China (2008)
76.6Marble,travertine, ecaussines etc
77.3
76.9
76.7
Ores & concentrates, nes
Zinc ores & concentrates
Niobium, tantalum, vanadium ores & concentrates
86
84.1
82.9
Zirconium & articles thereof, including waste & scrap
Iron oxides & hydroxides
compounded rubber, unvulcanised, in primary forms
94 8
91.8
89.9
86
Iron ores & concentrates; including roasted iron pyrites
Alumunium ores & concentrates
Chromium ores & concentrates
Zirconium & articles thereof, including waste & scrap
99.9
97
94.8
Uranium or thorium ores & concentrates
Slag. Dross other than granulated slag
Iron ores & concentrates; including roasted iron pyrites
75 80 85 90 95 100
Percent
Source: ASEAN Economic Commonity Chartbook 2009
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Ekspor Utama ASEAN ke India:Ketergantungan India Atas Bahan Baku ASEAN (2008)
Country Commodity Share of total export (%)p ( )
Brunei Darussalam Crude petroleum oils 99.80%
Cambodia Palm oil & its fraction 88.80%
Myanmar Dried vegetables, shelled 61.70%
Indonesia Palm oil & its fraction 57.40%
Malaysia Crude petroleum oils 39 70%Malaysia Crude petroleum oils 39.70%
Singapore Petroleum oils, not crude 22.20%
Viet Nam Coal; briquettes, ovoid & similar solidf l f d f l
21.68%fuels manufactured from coal
Philippines Parts & access of motor vehicles 18.90%
Thailand Petroleum oils, not crude 6.40%
Source: ASEAN Secretariat Office
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ASEAN trade with China:Defisit Berlanjut
120
80
100
120
Import
40
60
ion USD Export
‐0.9 ‐1.7 ‐4 3 ‐2.0 ‐2.7 ‐4 0 ‐2.9 ‐3 7 ‐1.5 6 4
0
20Bill
‐4.3 2.7 4.0 2.9 3.7 ‐6.4 ‐8.9 ‐9.9‐15.2
‐21.4‐40
‐20
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Balance of trade
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ASEAN - India Trade:Surplus dengan Value Added?
35
25
30
15
20
Billion
USD
Export
Import
5
10
B
Balance of trade
0
199519
9619
9719
9819
9920
0020
0120
0220
0320
0420
0520
0620
0720
08
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PELUANG &TANTANGAN INDONESIA :PELUANG &TANTANGAN INDONESIA :Strategi & Daya Saing Menentukan
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Perbandingan PDB ANGGOTA ASEAN (2008)
4,401.6China
273.2
511.8
1,209.7
Thailand
Indonesia
India
168.6
181.9
222.2
Philippines
Singapore
Malaysia
14.6
27.2
89.8
Brunei Darussalam
Myanmar
Viet Nam
5.3
11.2
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500
Lao PDR
Cambodia
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500
Billions of USD
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Struktur PDB Indonesia:Konsumsi Swasta Mendominasi PDB
120
39.728.8 27.8
41.115.2
8.019.1
23.1
2.8 1.1
80
100
13 510.7
12.5
11.6 11.98.4
6.29.7
12.9
44.430.9 19.1
39.8
60
80
Perc
ent
20.1
36.1 41.0 45.254.7 54.8 60.9
67.3 71.120.8
13.5
20
40
P
-5.3-16.5
-1.8
-20
0
Brunai China Singapore Malaysia India Thailand Indonesia Vietnam Philipinag p y p
Private consumption Government consumption Gross domestic capital formation Net Export
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Terjadi Percepatan Deindustrialisasi:Gap Indeks PDB dan Manufaktur Semakin LebarGap Indeks PDB dan Manufaktur Semakin Lebar
Index, 2004=100
140
150
PDB
120
130
100
110Industri Pengolahan
90
100
80
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
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Pertumbuhan FDI:FDI Indonesia Lambat, Bukti Daya Saing RendahFDI Indonesia Lambat, Bukti Daya Saing Rendah
120
80
100China
60
80
n USD ASEAN
20
40Billion
Indonesia
‐
98098
298
498
698
899
099
299
499
699
800
000
200
400
600
8
Indonesia
India
(20)19819
819
819
819
819
919
919
919
919
920
020
020
020
020
0
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Mengapa Daya Saing Indonesia Rendah?g p y g
Indonesia tidak memiliki industrial policy and strategy yang komprehensif sehingga mengakibatkan:komprehensif, sehingga mengakibatkan:• Visi industri dan perdagangan tidak jelas. Misal:
– Tren menunjukkan peningkatan share ekspor bahan mentah danpeningkatan impor pangan. Apakah ini yang menjadi visipeningkatan impor pangan. Apakah ini yang menjadi visipembangunan industri?
– Ketahanan pangan diikuti dengan ketergantungan pangan impor. Inikah tujuan pembangunan industri pertanian?
• Kebijakan perdagangan dan industri tidak memiliki referensidan arah serta keberpihakan yang jelas pada kepentingannasional Misal:nasional. Misal: – UU Penanaman Modal No 25 Tahun 2007, Peraturan Presiden
No. 76 Tahun 2007, Peraturan Presiden No. 77 Tahun 2007 yang diubah dengan Peraturan Presiden No. 111 Tahun 2007 kepemilikan asing di bank dinaikkan dari 95% menjadi 99%kepemilikan asing di bank dinaikkan dari 95% menjadi 99%.
– Kebijakan energi (UU Migas, UU Minerba, dll), perdagangan
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#2 Kebijakan pembangunan infrastruktur tidak memiliki Kebijakan pembangunan infrastruktur tidak memiliki
perencanaan yang terintegrasi dengan rencana pembangunansektoral. Misal:
o Pembukaan dan dorongan investasi sektor tambang tidak diikuti dengang g gpenyediaan transportasi yang cukup.
o Pembangunan industri pengolahan tidak diikuti pembangunan industripenyedia listrik, air bersih, pelabuhan, dll.
Kebijakan sumber daya manusia tidak direncanakan denganlink and match yang ketat antara sektor industri, pendidikandan ketenaga kerjaan. Contoh: Malaysia lebih siap menangkap relokasi investasi Jepang berbasis SDM
berketrampilan untuk menarik investasi sektor elektronik untuk basis produksi semi konduktor.
Saat ini strategi Indonesia menyiapkan SMK. Apakah sesuai denganrencana pengembangan industrinya?
Sementara bbrp fakultas di perguruan tinggi seperti Geologi danPertanian, kekurangan mahasiswa. Padahal pertanian dan tambangadalah salah satu sektor potensial bagi Indonesia.
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#3Kebijakan keuangan, moneter dan fiskal, berpotensi kontraproduktif terhadap pembangunan daya saing investasi langsung dan industri. Contoh:
K bij k d i b b il i t k lib li i k tid k iliki h– Kebijakan devisa bebas, nilai tukar, liberalisasi keuangan tidak memiliki arah, menyulitkan pembangunan sektor riil,
– Kerjasama ekonomi internasional tidak memiliki rencana strategi, dll– Kebijakan fiskal tentang subsidi, pajak, dll sering kontraproduktif
Kebijakan dan strategi perdagangan internasional berpotensi memberi dampak negatif pada ekonomi nasional.
S t if d l l k k lib li i d b ik i l– Sangat agresif dalam melakukan liberalisasi perdagangan baik regional maupun bilateral. Mulai perdagangan bebas sampai EPA
– Berpotensi menimbulkan berbagai masalah di berbagai sektor. Misal: UU No. 18 Tahun 2009 Tentang Peternakan
Kebijakan ekonomi selain tidak fokus pada peningkatan daya saing juga tidak mampu menyelesaikan masalah nasional seperti kemiskinan pengangguran kesenjangankemiskinan, pengangguran, kesenjangan.
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Top 10 Ekspor Indonesia ke India86% Natural Resources (2008)
Coconut (copra),
Binders for foundry molds or cores, 2%
Petroleum coke, 1%
Chemical wood
2%
Others, 14%
,pulp, 1%
Natural rubber, 1%Copper ores and concentrates, 4%
Palm oil & itsPalm oil & its fraction, 58%
Coal, 17%
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Top 10 Impor Indonesia dari IndiaDidominated Barang Manufaktur (2008)
Semi‐finished products of iron
4%
Ground‐nuts, not roasted3%
Trucks, motor
Television camera,
Cotton, not carded or combed
5%
Trucks, motor vehicles for the
transport of goods3%
Others45%
Soya‐bean oil9%
transmissn app 8%
Petroleum oils, not crude13%
Cyclic hydrocarbons
10%
9%
13%10%
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Top 10 Ekspor Indonesia ke China70% did i i SDA70% didominasi SDA
No ProductValue
(MillionUS$)Percent
( )
1 Coal; briquettes, ovoids & similar solid fuels manufactured from coal 4070.7 26%
2 Palm oil & its fraction 1866.5 12%
3 Natural rubber,balata,gutta‐percha etc 1305.8 8%
4 Crude petroleum oils 705.6 4%
5 Chemical wood pulp, soda or sulphate, other than dissolving grades 644.9 4%
6 Petroleum coke, petroleum bitumen & other residues of petroleum oils 486.7 3%
7 Aluminum ores and concentrates 466.4 3%
8 Coconut (copra),palm kernel/babassu oil & their fractions 426.9 3%
9 Cyclic hydrocarbons 395.6 3%
10 Nickel ores and concentrates 348.4 2%
Total 10 Products 10,717.6 68%
Total Export 15 692 6 100%Total Export 15,692.6 100%
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Top Impor Indonesia dari ChinaDominasi Produk OlahanDominasi Produk Olahan
No ProductValue
PercentNo Product(Million US$)
Percent
1 Automatic data processing machines;optical reader, etc 1617.8 8%
2 Television camera, transmissn app for radio‐telephony 1414.4 7%
3 Petroleum oils, not crude 652.5 3%
4 Part suitable for use solely/princ with televisions, recpt app 552.9 3%
5 Electric app for line telephony,incl curr line system 546.5 3%
6 Printing machinery; machines for uses ancillary to printing 292.6 1%
7 Woven cotton fabrics, 85% or more cotton, weight less than 200 g/m2 279.7 1%
8 Cruise ship, cargo ship, barges 267.2 1%
9 Tubes, pipes and hollow profiles, seamless, or iron or steel 261.7 1%
10 Onions, garlic and leeks, fresh or chilled 248.2 1%
Total 10 Products 6133.4 30%
Total Import 20,424 100%
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Neraca Perdagangan Indonesia-ChinaSurplus pada Migas, Defisit pada Non Migas
Miliar US$
2.4
3.6
2.11 7
4
6
Migas
0.5 0.8 1.11.70.4
1.42.1
0.9
0.1 0 0
1.7
0
2
Neraca Perdagangan
‐3.6‐2.5
‐4.7
0.1‐0.6
0.0
‐1.3
‐4
‐2
‐7 2
‐4.6
‐5.6
‐8
‐6Non Migas
7.2‐8
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
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Peran China dan India di IndonesiaBukan Lewat FDI?
Other Asia Countries3.3%
USA1.0%
China0.9%
Australia0 3%
Europe7.3%
0.3%
India0.1%
Mauritius43.6%
Joint Countries21.8%
ASEAN12.5%
Japan9.2% © Pusd
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ASEAN Economic Community (AEC)Indonesia Diposisikan atau Memposisikan Diri
Merencanakan daya saing dan industrialisasi denganmenganggap tren dan positioning Indonesia saat ini adalahmenganggap tren dan positioning Indonesia saat ini adalahkondisi yang bersifat given? Artinya:• Membiarkan MNC sebagai faktor penentu arah
pembangunan ekonomi dan industri Indonesia. • Mencukupkan diri dengan sekadar mendapatkan manfaat
minimal (lapangan kerja, nilai tambah, dll)
ATAU
Merencanakan daya saing dalam kerangka strategi industri(grand design) yang dirancang 1) sesuai amanah konstitusi 2)(grand design) yang dirancang 1) sesuai amanah konstitusi, 2) memanfaatkan semua potensi (lahan, tenaga kerja, SDA) dan 3) untuk menyelesaikan permasalahan nasional (pengangguran, kemiskinan ketergantungan kesenjangan dll) serta untukkemiskinan, ketergantungan, kesenjangan, dll) serta untukmengejar ketertinggalan Indonesia.
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