Kurt Raaflaub, Carrier Networks Global Product Marketing · Reduce call time for support center...

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ADTRAN Company Confidential ADTRAN 2013 All rights reserved

The Future of Broadband Kurt Raaflaub, Carrier Networks Global Product Marketing

February 2014

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3 ADTRAN Company Confidential ® Adtran, Inc. 2014 All rights reserved

Agenda

The Only Constant is Change - Reinvent

The Emergence of Gigabit services

The Future of Broadband

Gigabit Services Delivery

Fiber to the Home, not throughout it.

Reinventing the Network

ADTRAN Company Confidential ® Adtran, Inc. 2013 All rights reserved 4

Always appears incremental until its too late.

— Mike Walsh, Futurist


“Everything that can be invented has been invented.”

—1899 — Charles H. Duell Commissioner of U.S. Office of Patents


“I think there is a world market for maybe five computers…”

—1943 — Thomas Watson Chairman of IBM


“There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home”

—1977 — Ken Olson Chairman of Digital Equipment Corp.


“Spam will be a thing of the past in two years time”

—2004 — Bill Gates, Chairman of Microsoft


Why is change accelerating?


Moore’s Law Number of transistors double approximately every 24 months

1971 1978 2003 2013

# of

Tra

nsis

tors

AMD Jaguar

5B Transistors

Intel Pentium 4 55M

Transistors

Intel 8086 29K

Transistors

1st Microprocessor 2,300

Transistors

Moore’s Actual


Gilder’s Law The total bandwidth of communication systems triples every twelve months.

1997 2007 2017


Metcalfe’s Law The value of a network is proportional to the square of the number of nodes

2 Users 1 Connection

5 Users 10 Connections

Many Users Exponential Benefit

n(n-1)/2 = connections where n = # users


Convergence of the 3 Laws

Moore’s Law Value of Computing

Gilder’s Law Value of

Communications

Metcalfe’s Law Value of

Networking

Synergistic Reaction


Synergistic Reaction Effect


1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017

100 Gigabytes per Day

100 Gigabytes per Hour

100 Gigabytes

per Second

2,000 Gigabytes

per Second

16,800 Gigabytes

per Second

46,500 Gigabytes

per Second Global Internet Traffic

*Cisco VNI forecast

Synergistic Reaction

All movies

ever made

crossing the

global network

every 4 mins.


1. Rate of change will accelerate

2. Demand for connectivity and capacity is “infinite”

3. Users demand everything “instantly”

‒ Any Service, Anywhere, Any Device, Anytime

So… What Can We Conclude?


Agenda








0.000

0.001

0.010

0.100

1.000

10.000

100.000

1,000.000

10,000.000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Inte

rnet

Acc

ess

Rat

e (M

bps)

Year

Trend projection: 1 Gbps in 2020

Voiceband Modems Cable Modems, DSL and FTTx

Disruptive Event: 1 Gbps in 2013

Residential service rates ≈ 45% annual growth since 1980s Discontinuity – Jump to 1 Gbps?

Not available everywhere

Broadband Access – Historical Trends


Do we really need a Gig?

“Everything that can be invented has been invented” “I think there is a world market for maybe five computers…” “There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home”

20 ADTRAN Company Confidential ® 2014 ADTRAN, Inc. All rights reserved.

The real question…

If 1 Gigabit was an option for the same price, would you take it?


Then there was this search engine company…

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Google Fiber Expansion

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and there were others…


Then there are others…


And others…


Agenda







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Future of Broadband (FTTH)

Bandwidth demand infinite – Gigabit steadily becoming target

OpEx reduction – Most expensive fiber trenching – Truck rolls, home visits

CapEx reduction – Extensible access platforms – Less expensive CPE

Greater addressable services market


High capacity residential broadband services

Enterprise services

Expansion of the mobile (LTE) network

Data Center connectivity for cloud services

Network Priorities


• Disparate overlay networks

• TDM & Ethernet

• Lengthy new service creation

Current Network State

Business Services

Expansion of Mobile

Residential Broadband

Data Center Connectivity

Core

Transport

Aggregation

Access

Copper, Fiber & Wireless Physical Assets


Fibre connectivity • Ethernet & Wavelengths

Multi-service points

Cloud controlled

Virtualized network

functions

Highly automated

Future Network State

Business Services

Expansion of Mobile

Networks

Residential Broadband

Data Center Connectivity

RG SBC

Firewall

Network DVR

Intrusion prevention

H-QoS

BNG


FTTH is the Goal

Physical infrastructure Network infrastructure

Reduced OSP maintenance

cost Better service

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Simplified Service Management Cloud

Guarantee service delivery for mass deployment

Improve customers’ experience, Reduce churn rate

Reduce call time for support center

Reduce operational costs

OSS / Billing

MSAN/OLT

EMS

XML, SNMP, TL1, Open Flow

XML, SNMP, NETCONF

ACS TR-069 Voice

Video Data

Smart Home

BRAS/BNG

OMCI

Residential Gateway/ ONT

Leveraging SDN to simplify and automate

SDN-enabled


Network Services must be as easy as an App Instant-On Service Activation

Real-Time Entertainment

Residential Internet

Enterprise Communications

Multi-Site Enterprise Communications

Web Hosting

Small Cell Connectivity


Agenda








The Gigabit Service Reality

• Gig service puts a tremendous strain the network

• Subscribers want “as advertised”

• Be prepared to deliver!

bottlenecks begin to emerge


Breaking Down the Bottlenecks

PON

Backplane

Transport

The bottlenecks that emerge…


Addressing the PON bottleneck

PON

Backplane

Transport


Addressing the PON bottleneck

Advanced Dynamic Bandwidth Allocation DBA across the PON – across the card –

across the system

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GPON – 2.5G downstream, 1.25G upstream – Widely deployed today

XGPON1 – 10G downstream, 2.5G upstream – Only trial deployments to date

NGPON2 – 10G downstream, 10G upstream – Standard finalized in 2014

PON Evolution (GPON Family)

NGPON2

+

4-8 TDM PON λs

WDM Overlay λs

=

40


Addressing the backplane bottleneck

PON

Backplane

Transport

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Addressing the backplane bottleneck

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Do the math – non-blocking architectures

Over 100G / slot

8-port GPON OLT x 2.5G GPON per port = 20G per access slot to egress chassis (Minimum)

4-port XGPON1 OLT x 10G GPON per port = 40G per access slot to egress chassis (Minimum)

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Addressing the transport bottleneck

PON

Backplane

Transport

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Cost effective 10G aggregation An answer to exhausted 10G rings

Dedicated fiber support to cell towers

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Central Office

Remote Cabinet

Central Office

Physical View

Logical View


Bandwidth – Dedicated 10G pipe per node Fiber Availability – Pair gain for your fiber plant

.


Breaking Down the Bottlenecks

PON

Backplane

Transport


Agenda








Lots of deployment types, ONT options

Outdoor Single Family Unit (SFU) Indoor Single Family Unit (SFU) Indoor Single Family Unit (SFU) with Integrated Residential Gateway


Factors determining ONT construction

Packaging – House, Business or Apartment – Outdoor or Indoor

Services – Voice, Video, Data – CATV, IPTV

Integration – WiFi, Residential Gateway/Router – Home wiring type

Types of ONTs


ONT Market Trends

Reducing the cost per sub; Accelerating the path to revenue

Migration from outdoor to indoor

Reduced request for sub gig options – HPNA, MoCA 1.1

Reduce power and battery backup size

Lower the cost of installation


Simplifying customer premises installs

“Cost of Waiting" study from TOA Technologies (2011).

$37.7B in time wasted waiting for installer

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Eliminating high cost areas of deployment Mitigate fiber right of way issues

Eliminate truck rolls

No truck roll: Support customer self-install

Improving the profitability of your business


Emerging Indoor ONT options

Drastically lower ONT cost Ultra-compact size Ideal for MDUs Facilitates flexible installation Leave at the residence

Single box solution Integrated wireless radios Managed in home services

Micro ONTs Residential Gateway ONTS

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Can be left at residence – Great for MDU – Save cost of a truck roll to retrieve – Enables instant activation for next resident

Flexible and discrete installation – Simplify, streamline installation

procedures – Improves security and reduces vandalism

Independent of the wireless router – Increases life of ONT, improving ROI – Save cost of a truck roll to upgrade service – Increase customer satisfaction

The Value of a Micro ONT Strategy

Improving the economics without reducing function

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Delivers higher speeds over existing home wiring – Need to deliver fiber to/near home

Provides alternative, lower cost deployment model – MDU, Apartments; duct issues

Provides opportunity to eliminate truck rolls – No in-home visits

Operationally aligned with FTTH

G.fast and FTTB summary

A global solution for a global challenge: Gigabit delivery

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Gigabit service over Phone line – Provisionable (a)symmetric rates – Gig alternative to lower speed

MoCA and HPNA technologies.

The G.fast standard outlines these rate/reach targets: – Gigabit @ <<100m (FTTB) – 500Mbps @ 100m

VDSL2 (17a) with vectoring: – 100Mbps @ 550m (FTTN) – 150Mbps @ <200m

What is G.fast? Gigabit over the Phone line

FTTB is part of an operators Gigabit services tool kit


Agenda








1. Use Ethernet and wavelength services at any point in the network

2. Solutions with the lowest DEPLOYED cost per bit

3. Leverage NFV to be fully Service Aware and Scalable

4. Utilize SDN for automation to simplify and standardize devices on the network

Principles of Reinventing Network


Mainframe Computing

1960s

Mini Computing

1970s

Personal Computing

1980s

Desktop Internet 1990s

Mobile Internet 2000s

Wearable / Everywhere Computing

2014+

Historical Technology Cycles - 10+ years

The pace of change is accelerating…

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Fiber Access Acronyms

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Kurt Raaflaub, Carrier Networks Global Product Marketing · Reduce call time for support center...

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