Kuliah Umum Perekonomian Indonesia by Pak Dorodjatun

KULIAH PENGANTAR

PEREKONOMIAN INDONESIA

Prof Emeritus Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD. Universitas Indonesia

Fakultas Ekonomi

11 Februari 2015

BAHAN A

INDONESIA ARCHIPELAGIC SEA LANES

SLoC MALACA

ALKI I

ALKI II ALKI IIIA

ALKI IIIB

ALKI IIIC

Note: ALKI = SLOC (Alur Laut Kepulauan Indonesia = Sea-Lane of Communication)

Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.

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GEOGRAFI

INDONESIA ECONOMIC EXCLUSIVE ZONE


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TEN LARGEST COUNTRIES AND THEIR POPULATION, SELECTED YEARS (millions)

DEMOGRAFI

Indonesia’s Potential: demographic bonus

Source: Government of Indonesia (2011), “Master Plan: Acceleration and Expansion of Indonesia Economic Development 2011-2025

INDONESIA: Age Structure of Population and Dependency Ratio (%), 1950-2050

• Indonesia has the fourth ranking population in the world, with 237.6 million people (2010), and the working age population is close to 70% of the total population. Population growth rose to 1.49% in 2010.

• Indonesia’s window of “demographic bonus” (only if it accompanied by better quality education to produce skilled workers and more job creation) will close in the next decade, as the dependecy ratio (i.e. ratio of young and elderly to working age) will start to rise after 2030.


6 DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES 2015-2025: MAKE OR BREAK

Correlations:

The Middle-Income Trap By Evan Applegate June 13, 2013

Speaking on June 6 in Chengdu, China, Executive Vice Premier Zhang Gaoli said his country “has to stand up to the test of striding over the ‘middle-income trap.’ ” Zhang was referring to a well-known phenomenon: Many nations can move from low-income to middle-income status, but as labor costs rise only countries that boost productivity, improve education, and master innovation fully develop.

www.businessweek.com


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http://www.businessweek.com/authors/1040-evan-applegate

BAHAN B

The Jakarta Post, November 15, 2008

Crisis: The worst in 3 decades (!)

- Events which were calculated to occur once in 20 years in fact occurred much more regularly indicating that risk management assumptions did not reflect the distribution of the actual outcomes

(Blankfein, FT, 9/2/2009)


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The Economist commodity-price index Jul 24th 2008

From The Economist print edition

- Too strong upside

(irrational exuberance)


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The Economist commodity-price index From The Economist print edition

- Too strong downside

(irrational gloom)


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Feb 26th 2009

Feb 7th 2015 Dec 20th 2014

The Economist commodity-price index


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Fuel prices during Megawati Soekarnoputri’s presidential term


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Pada saat Krisis Sub-Prime Mortgage pecah di AS pada tahun 2008 yang lalu, index VIX melonjak jauh ke 80 (!), yang mencerminkan situasi “lepas kendali” di dunia perbankan serta keuangan di AS. Pada awal September 2011 yang baru lalu: index itu sempat mencapai sekitar 50. Silahkan diperhatikan “52 wk high VIX” setinggi 48.00, yang lebih tinggi daripada yang ditunjukkan oleh VDX, VXN dan VDAX, yang masing-masing adalah 42,64; 47,23; dan 47,30. Gejolak bulan Nopember 2011 ini ditimbulkan oleh Krisis Hutang Yunani yang menggoncang seluruh Eurozone, dan yang memerlukan dana “bailout” yang sangat besar dari European Central Bank (ECB) yang tak dapat diberikan segera keputusannya oleh bank sentral dari ekonomi-ekonomi EU yang kuat – seperti Jerman dan Perancis.

Seperti tampak pada tabel berikut: meskipun “volatility indices” tersebut per 2 November 2011 telah menurun ke tingkatan 34-37 tapi IHSG dari “Dow Jones Titans” tetap berjatuhan, dengan yang terjadi di Bursa Efek Italia merupakan yang terburuk – jatuh sebesar 25,6% per Year-to-date. Index Dow Jones Titans ini disusun dari index sejumlah emiten yang paling besar dan paling likuid di bursa efek beberapa negara yang diamati oleh Dow Jones. Ini berarti, para aktivis di bursa efek Italia sangat khawatir terhadap faktor “exposure” bank dan lembaga-lembaga keuangan Italia yang cukup besar terhadap hutang Yunani. Demikian pula halnya dalam hal Perancis dan Jerman. Bandingkan di antara gambaran “Year-to-date” dengan gambaran “52 weeks” boleh dikatakan menghasilkan gambaran situasi yang sama. Mohon dicatat bahwa gambaran situasi tersebut adalaha atas dasar IHSG per US Dollar – bukan per matauang lokal masing-masing negara.


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Financial Times. December 1, 2011


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Financial Times (ASIA) Friday, June 13, 2014

Financial Times Wednesday, January 21, 2015


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23-Aug-90 36.47

30-Oct-97 38.20

08-Oct-98 45.74

20-Sep-01 43.74

05-Aug-02 45.08

16-Aug-06 30.83

12-Nov-07 31.09

20-Nov-08 80.86

Sampling of Key VIX Peak Daily Closing Prices in Select Years


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TABLE-Global FX volume reaches $5.3 trillion a day in 2013 BIS-Reuters - Thu Sep 5, 2013 9:00am

GLOBAL FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET TURNOVER (Daily averages in April in US$ billion)

Instrument 2013 2010

Foreign exchange instruments 5,345 3,971

Spot transactions 2,046 1,488

Outright forwards 680 475

FX swaps 2,228 1,759

Currency swaps 54 43

Options and other products 337 207

Turnover at April 2013 FX rates* 5,345 3,969

* Non-US dollar legs of foreign currency transactions were converted into original currency amounts at average exchange rates for April of each survey year and then reconverted into US dollar amounts at average April 2013 exchange rates


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LAKON GEJOLAK AWAL 2015

• Kalau Yen terus melemah menuju ke Y120/USD – yang merupakan “30-year support” – maka RMB bisa terdesak untuk didevaluasi

• Peristiwa ini bisa menimbulkan deflasi di USA dan EU

Catatan

Sejak 1998 “psychological floor” buat Y/USD adalah Y120/USD

- Semua EMs akan mengalami pelemahan matauang mereka terhadap USD


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MENGENAL EKONOMI INDONESIA

World Development Indicators database, World Bank, 16 December 2014

(millions of international dollars)

World Development Indicators database, World Bank, 16 December 2014

95% 95% 93% 84% 71%

75%

1992 1997 1999 2004 2009 2014

VOTERS TURNOUT


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Direct & Open General Election

High Generasi Millenium participation

Menuju ke G20 Brisbane

• Us to warn Europe on risk of “lost decade” Region faces threat of deeper malaise (US Treasury Secretary) FT 13/11/2014 • Abe is man on a mission destination unknown The “Godfather of Abenomics”, Kuroda the BOJ governor launches another

round of QE at a time the Fed Reserve is going the other way FT 13/11/2014 • IEA warn on impact of oil price dip A near 30% fall in the price of Brent since mid-June to $81.67 this week - There will be a 10% decline in oil/shale investments in 2015 - Causing jitters in countries that rely heavily on oil revenues FT 13/11/2014


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Kuliah Umum Perekonomian Indonesia by Pak Dorodjatun

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