Korea Energy Demand Outlook - KEEI · Korea Energy Demand Outlook Volume 12, No. 1 ISSN 2093-7199...
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Korea Energy Demand Outlook Volume 12, No. 1 ISSN 2093-7199 JUNE 2010
Transcript of Korea Energy Demand Outlook - KEEI · Korea Energy Demand Outlook Volume 12, No. 1 ISSN 2093-7199...
Korea EnergyDemandOutlook
Volume 12, No. 1 ISSN 2093-7199
JUNE 2010
In charge of overall research: Cha Gyeong-soo
Oil: Kim Soo-ilElectricity/Transformation: Cha Gyeong-sooTown gas/Coal: Lee Sang-youlStatistical support: Jeong Chang-bong
Phone: (031) 420-2124Fax: (031) 420-2164
S
Category2009p 2010p
1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 Annual 1/4p April January- April
Coal 25.0 25.1 29.2 29.2 108.4 30.7 9.1 39.8
(Million ton) (-0.3) (-0.1) (7.3) (8.6) (4.0) (22.9) (13.7) (20.7)
Oil 199.1 192.5 183.7 203.2 778.5 198.8 64.4 263.3
(Million bbl) (-2.8) (5.3) (0.4) (6.9) (2.3) (-0.1) (-0.9) (-0.3)
LNG 8.2 4.4 4.3 8.0 24.9 10.5 2.7 13.2
(Million ton) (-18.0) (-16.2) (-7.7) (5.7) (-9.4) (28.3) (48.6) (31.9)
Hydro 0.8 1.4 2.5 0.9 5.6 1.2 0.4 1.6
(TWh) (-12.3) (9.1) (4.7) (-4.2) (1.4) (43.6) (35.4) (41.3)
Nuclear power 36.6 37.3 37.2 36.6 147.8 36.0 11.4 47.5
(TWh) (-8.2) (3.1) (-0.8) (-1.9) (-2.1) (-1.6) (-4.7) (-2.4)
Others 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.7 6.0 1.5 0.5 2.0
(Million TOE) (18.9) (17.4) (17.0) (18.5) (20.0) (3.7) (3.7) (3.7)
Primary energy 62.2 56.7 58.0 65.3 242.2 68.9 20.8 89.7
(Million TOE) (-5.8) (1.0) (1.7) (6.1) (0.7) (10.7) (8.6) (10.2)
S
<Trends in final energy consumption>
Category2009p 2010p
1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 Annual 1/4p April January-April
Industry 25.7 26.3 26.8 28.2 107.0 29.1 9.3 38.5
(Million TOE) (-5.4) (-0.3) (1.0) (7.0) (0.5) (13.4) (6.4) (11.6)
Transport 8.3 9.0 9.0 9.3 35.5 8.5 3.0 11.5
(Million TOE) (-4.5) (-0.4) (1.1) (0.8) (-0.7) (1.4) (3.8) (2.0)
Residential/commercial/public 13.9 8.0 6.9 11.5 40.3 15.0 3.7 18.7
(Million TOE) (-6.9) (2.7) (4.4) (5.5) (-0.3) (7.7) (16.5) (9.4)
Total 47.9 43.3 42.6 49.0 182.8 52.5 16.1 68.6
Million TOE (-5.6) (0.2) (1.3) (5.4) (0.1) (9.7) (8.0) (9.3)
Town gas 6.9 3.6 2.7 5.3 18.4 7.9 1.9 9.8
(Billion m3) (-4.6) (0.5) (-0.7) (6.0) (-1.6) (14.7) (21.3) (15.9)
Oil 187.2 186.1 181.0 198.0 752.3 189.0 62.3 251.4
(Million bbl) (-4.9) (3.7) (1.0) (6.8) (1.5) (1.0) (1.1) (1.0)
Electricity 100.3 94.0 99.0 101.2 394.5 112.5 36.0 148.5
(TWh) (-2.3) (2) (2.7) (7.8) (2.4) (12.2) (10.8) (11.9)
Coal 8.2 8.2 9.5 10.0 35.9 11.3 3.3 14.5
(Million ton) (-15.9) (-15.9) (-0.4) (-3.8) (-8.9) (37.0) (22.9) (33.5)
Thermal and other 2,043 1,581 1,403 2,150 7,177 2,180 630.8 2,811.1
(Thousand TOE) (10.8) (15.7) (16.9) (16.3) (11.1) (6.7) (9.0) (7.2)
Category2009p 2010e
1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 Annual 1/4p 2/4 3/4 4/4 Annual
Coal 25.0 25.1 29.2 29.2 108.4 30.7 29.9 29.8 30.2 120.5
(Million ton) (-0.3) (-0.1) (7.3) (8.6) (4.0) (22.9) (19.1) (2.3) (3.4) (11.2)
Oil 199.1 192.5 183.7 203.2 778.5 198.8 199.1 192.8 211.7 802.4
(Million bbl) (-2.8) (5.3) (0.4) (6.9) (2.3) (-0.1) (3.4) (5.0) (4.2) (3.1)
LNG 8.2 4.4 4.3 8.0 24.9 10.5 4.8 4.7 7.9 27.9
(Million ton) (-18.0) (-16.2) (-7.7) (5.7) (-9.4) (28.3) (8.8) (10.3) (-1.0) (12.4)
Hydro 0.8 1.4 2.5 0.9 5.6 1.2 1.2 2.4 0.9 5.8
(TWh) (-12.3) (9.1) (4.7) (-4.2) (1.4) (43.6) (-12.0) (-3.2) (5.0) (2.8)
Nuclear power 36.6 37.3 37.2 36.6 147.8 36.0 36.4 40.9 39.7 153.0
(TWh) (-8.2) (3.1) (-0.8) (-1.9) (-2.1) (-1.6) (-2.5) (9.9) (8.5) (3.6)
Others 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.7 6.0 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.9 6.4
(Million TOE) (18.9) (17.4) (17.0) (18.5) (20.0) (3.7) (8.3) (8.3) (8.2) (7.2)
Primary energy 62.2 56.7 58.0 65.3 242.2 68.9 61.1 61.2 68.0 259.2
(Million TOE) (-5.8) (1.0) (1.7) (6.1) (0.7) (10.7) (7.8) (5.5) (4.1) (7.0)
S
Category2009p 2010e
1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 Annual 1/4p 2/4 3/4 4/4 Annual
Industry 25.7 26.3 26.8 28.2 107.0 29.1 28.8 28.2 28.8 115.3
(Million TOE) (-5.4) (-0.3) (1.0) (7.0) (0.5) (13.4) (10.7) (6.7) (4.4) (8.7)
Transport 8.3 9.0 9.0 9.3 35.5 8.5 9.1 9.2 9.3 36.1
(Million TOE) (-4.5) (-0.4) (1.1) (0.8) (-0.7) (1.4) (1.8) (2.0) (0.8) (1.5)
Residential/commercial/public 13.9 8.0 6.9 11.5 40.3 15.0 8.6 7.3 11.9 42.7
(Million TOE) (-6.9) (2.7) (4.4) (5.5) (-0.3) (7.7) (7.4) (6.1) (3.2) (6.1)
Total 47.9 43.3 42.6 49.0 182.8 52.5 46.9 45.0 50.6 195.1
Million TOE (-5.6) (0.2) (1.3) (5.4) (0.1) (9.7) (8.3) (5.6) (3.4) (6.7)
Town gas 6.9 3.6 2.7 5.3 18.4 7.9 4.0 2.9 5.4 20.3
(Billion m3) (-4.6) (0.5) (-0.7) (6.0) (-1.6) (14.7) (12.0) (10.6) (2.8) (10.2)
Oil 187.2 186.1 181.0 198.0 752.3 189.0 190.6 187.0 200.1 766.8
(Million bbl) (-4.9) (3.7) (1.0) (6.8) (1.5) (1.0) (2.4) (3.3) (1.0) (1.9)
Electricity 100.3 94.0 99.0 101.2 394.5 112.5 102.2 106.1 108.0 428.8
(TWh) (-2.3) (2) (2.7) (7.8) (2.4) (12.2) (8.7) (7.2) (6.7) (8.7)
Coal 8.2 8.2 9.5 10.0 35.9 11.3 10.8 10.3 10.7 43.1
(Million ton) (-15.9) (-15.9) (-0.4) (-3.8) (-8.9) (37.0) (31.4) (9.3) (6.7) (20.0)
Thermal and others 2,043 1,581 1,403 2,150 7,177 2,180 1,711 1,522 2,332 7,746
(Thousand TOE) (10.8) (15.7) (16.9) (16.3) (11.1) (6.7) (8.2) (8.5) (8.5) (7.9)
S
Category 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Energy consumption increase rate(%)
3.7 2.1 1.3 1.8 0.7 7.0
Economic growth rate(%) 3.9 5.1 5.0 2.3 0.2 5.7
Energy basic unit (TOE/Million won)
0.264 0.256 0.247 0.246 0.247 0.250
Ⅰ
1. Trends in the international oil market and oil exports/imports
Category WTI Brent Dubai
Year 2007 72.21 (9.34) 72.62 (11.62) 68.43 (11.28)
Year 2008 99.92 (27.21) 97.47 (24.85) 94.29 (25.86)
Year 2009 61.94 (-37.98) 61.73 (-35.74) 61.92 (-32.37)
January 2010 78.34 (87.33) 76.39 (75.09) 76.75 (73.96)
February 2010 76.45 (95.03) 73.82 (71.04) 73.60 (70.81)
March 2010 81.25 (69.38) 78.95 (69.64) 77.34 (69.68)
April 2010 84.50 (69.54) 84.91 (68.57) 83.64 (67.31)
May 2010 73.71 (24.78) 75.22 (30.68) 76.84 (32.73)
Category Gasoline Diesel Butane for transportation
Year 2007 1,525.87 1,272.73 (83.4) 773.77 (50.7)
Year 2008 1,692.14 1,614.44 (95.4) 1,009.04 (59.6)
Year 2009 1,600.72 1,397.47 (87.3) 828.70 (51.8)
January 2010 1,661.2 1,449.7 (87.3) 956.6 (57.6)
February 2010 1,663.6 1,442.9 (86.7) 952.2 (57.2)
March 2010 1,691.2 1,469.2 (86.9) 986.3 (58.3)
April 2010 1,724.5 1,507.2 (87.4) 966.4 (56.0)
May 2010 1,732.4 1,522.0 (87.9) 953.5 (55.0)
Ⅰ
[Diagram -1] Changes in petroleum product import prices and consumer prices (Unit: Won/liter)
Ⅰ
2. Trends in international natural gas and coal prices
M3
1. Economic trends and temperature changes in Korea
Ⅱ
CategoryYear 2009 Year 2010
Annual 1/4 4/4 April 1/4p February March(p) April(p)
Produc-tion
Mining/ manufact-uring industries
Production (Same month (same period) comparison)
-0.8 -15.7 16.2 -8.2 25.7 18.9 22.5 19.9
Manufacturing sector -0.9 -16.5 16.8 -8.8 26.8 19.6 23.4 20.5
(ICT) 7.8 -19.5 46.3 -5.9 46.0 38.7 39.0 30.1
(Automobiles) -6.8 -32.5 14.7 -22.0 51.0 32.1 39.0 30.1
Shipment -1.7 -14.9 12.8 -8.1 21.7 14.4 19.5 17.3
Domestic demand -1.8 -15.7 12.3 -8.8 21.1 12.8 20.3 17.2
Exports -1.7 -13.8 13.3 -7.1 22.5 16.6 18.4 17.8
Inventory -8.0 -6.2 -8.0 -9.8 6.6 4.2 6.6 10.9
Manufact-uring industry
Average operating rate 74.6 66.9 78.4 72.4 80.5 80.3 82.4 82.2
Production capacity 3.1 2.6 4.0 2.9 5.1 4.9 5.6 5.2
Con-sump-tion
Sales of consumer goods (Same month (same period) comparison)
2.6 -4.7 10.8 -4.2 9.9 13.1 9.9 7.1
Shipment of consumer goods for domestic demand
Invest-ment
Facility
Facility investment index -8.0 -17.9 10.2 -18.7 24.3 18.5 34.0 25.7
Domestic orders for machinery -11.8 -35.5 20.0 -27.4 10.5 -3.1 22.9 25.6
Con-struc-tion
Construction completed in Korea 1.7 -5.6 5.0 0.2 2.3 -3.0 5.8 -5.4
Construction orders in Korea 3.0 -12.0 11.6 -10.7 -6.9 -6.7 -25.3 -14.6
Prices Consumer pricesProducer prices
2.8-0.2
3.94.2
2.4-0.5
3.61.5
2.72.6
2.62.4
2.32.6
2.53.1
Category December 2009
January 2010
February(p) March (p) April (p)
Composite coincident index (Compared to the previous month, %) 0.4 0.8 1.2 0.9 0.9
Cyclical component 98.9 99.3 100.0 100.6 101.1
Month-to-month difference in cyclical component (p) -0.1 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.5
Composite leading index (Compared to the previous month, %) 0.7 0.3 -0.2 0.2 -0.2
Compared to the same month the previous year (%) 11.6 11.3 10.3 9.7 8.5
Month-to-month difference (%p) 0.3 -0.3 -1.0 -0.6 -1.2
Ⅱ
2. Trends in primary energy consumption
Ⅱ
Category2009p 2010p
1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 Annual 1/4 (p) April January-April
Coal 25.0 25.1 29.2 29.2 108.4 30.7 9.1 39.8
(Million ton) (-0.3) (-0.1) (7.3) (8.6) (4.0) (22.9) (13.7) (20.7)
Oil 199.1 192.5 183.7 203.2 778.5 198.8 64.4 263.3
(Million bbl) (-2.8) (5.3) (0.4) (6.9) (2.3) (-0.1) (-0.9) (-0.3)
LNG 8.2 4.4 4.3 8.0 24.9 10.5 2.7 13.2
(Million ton) (-18.0) (-16.2) (-7.7) (5.7) (-9.4) (28.3) (48.6) (31.9)
Hydro 0.8 1.4 2.5 0.9 5.6 1.2 0.4 1.6
(TWh) (-12.3) (9.1) (4.7) (-4.2) (1.4) (43.6) (35.4) (41.3)
Nuclear power 36.6 37.3 37.2 36.6 147.8 36.0 11.4 47.5
(TWh) (-8.2) (3.1) (-0.8) (-1.9) (-2.1) (-1.6) (-4.7) (-2.4)
Others 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.7 6.0 1.5 0.5 2.0
(Million TOE) (18.9) (17.4) (17.0) (18.5) (20.0) (3.7) (3.7) (3.7)
Primary energy 62.2 56.7 58.0 65.3 242.2 68.9 20.8 89.7
(Million TOE) (-5.8) (1.0) (1.7) (6.1) (0.7) (10.7) (8.6) (10.2)
3. Trends in final energy consumption
Ⅱ
Category2009p 2010p
1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 Annual 1/4p April January-April
Industry 25.7 26.3 26.8 28.2 107.0 29.1 9.3 38.5 (Million TOE) (-5.4) (-0.3) (1.0) (7.0) (0.5) (13.4) (6.4) (11.6)
Transport 8.3 9.0 9.0 9.3 35.5 8.5 3.0 11.5 (Million TOE) (-4.5) (-0.4) (1.1) (0.8) (-0.7) (1.4) (3.8) (2.0) Residential/
commercial/public 13.9 8.0 6.9 11.5 40.3 15.0 3.7 18.7
(Million TOE) (-6.9) (2.7) (4.4) (5.5) (-0.3) (7.7) (16.5) (9.4) Total 47.9 43.3 42.6 49.0 182.8 52.5 16.1 68.6
(Million TOE) (-5.6) (0.2) (1.3) (5.4) (0.1) (9.7) (8.0) (9.3) Town gas 6.9 3.6 2.7 5.3 18.4 7.9 1.9 9.8 (Billion m3) (-4.6) (0.5) (-0.7) (6.0) (-1.6) (14.7) (21.3) (15.9)
Oil 187.2 186.1 181.0 198.0 752.3 189.0 62.3 251.4 (Million bbl) (-4.9) (3.7) (1.0) (6.8) (1.5) (1.0) (1.1) (1.0)
Electricity 100.3 94.0 99.0 101.2 394.5 112.5 36.0 148.5 (TWh) (-2.3) (2) (2.7) (7.8) (2.4) (12.2) (10.8) (11.9) Coal 8.2 8.2 9.5 10.0 35.9 11.3 3.3 14.5
(Million ton) (-15.9) (-15.9) (-0.4) (-3.8) (-8.9) (37.0) (22.9) (33.5) Thermal and other 2,043 1,581 1,403 2,150 7,177 2,180 630.8 2,811.1 (Thousand TOE) (10.8) (15.7) (16.9) (16.3) (11.1) (6.7) (9.0) (7.2)
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
'01 1/4
'01 3/4
'02 1/4
'02 3/4
'03 1/4
'03 3/4
'04 1/4
'04 3/4
'05 1/4
'05 3/4
'06 1/4
'06 3/4
'07 1/4
'07 3/4
'08 1/4
'08 3/4
'09 1/4
'09 3/4
'10 1/4
Industry Transport Residential/Commercial/Public
Ⅱ
4. Trends in petroleum product consumption
Category2009p 2010p
1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 Annual 1/4 April January-April
Transport 60.3 64.7 65.0 66.9 256.9 60.9 21.7 82.6(-4.3) (-0.4) (1.1) (1.2) (-0.5) (1.0) (3.7) (1.7)
Industry 107.4 110.1 106.2 111.4 435.1 107.7 35.5 143.2(-2.8) (6.6) (0.1) (9.9) (3.3) (0.2) (-3.5) (-0.7)
Fuel 20.4 21.8 20.1 21.7 84.0 20.1 6.8 26.9(-7.6) (3.8) (-1.6) (4.8) (-0.2) (-1.6) (-6.9) (-3.0)
Raw material 87.0 88.3 86.1 89.7 351.1 87.6 28.7 116.3
(-1.6) (7.3) (0.5) (11.2) (4.2) (0.7) (-2.6) (-0.2)Residential/Commercial/
Public19.5 11.3 9.9 19.7 60.4 20.5 5.1 25.6
(-16.3) (0.0) (10.9) (9.8) (-1.7) (5.0) (29.3) (9.1)Transformation 11.9 6.4 2.6 5.2 26.1 9.8 2.1 11.9
(48.3) (92.3) (-29.3) (12.0) (32.5) (-17.5) (-37.0) (-21.7)Oil 199.1 192.5 183.7 203.2 778.5 198.8 64.4 263.3
(-2.8) (5.3) (0.4) (6.9) (2.3) (-0.1) (-0.9) (-0.3)
Ⅱ
Category2009p 2010p
1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 Annual 1/4 April January-April
Gasoline 15.2 16.4 17.1 17.2 65.9 15.9 5.5 21.3
(2.1) (6.8) (6.2) (3.5) (4.7) (4.5) (4.1) (4.4)
Diesel for transport 23.6 27.1 25.7 27.2 103.6 23.7 9.0 32.7
(-9.0) (-2.1) (0.1) (-1.2) (-3.0) (0.3) (1.9) (0.7)
Kerosene+Diesel 16.9 10.3 8.8 18.6 54.6 18.0 4.4 22.5(including for power
generation) (-16.1) (5.5) (10.7) (6.8) (-1.2) (7.1) (21.4) (9.5)
Heavy oil 23.8 17.1 12.0 16.5 69.4 20.0 5.6 25.5(including for power
generation) (3.6) (8.6) (-16.2) (-2.5) (-0.8) (-16.2) (-23.6) (-17.9)
Naphtha 81.4 80.1 78.9 82.2 322.6 81.1 26.0 107.1
(-1.6) (5.8) (-0.5) (11.7) (3.6) (-0.3) (-3.1) (-1.0)
LPG 26.1 26.1 27.2 26.8 106.3 26.5 8.8 35.3(including for power
generation) (1.3) (3.9) (2.5) (10.0) (4.3) (1.3) (9.7) (3.3)
Ⅱ
Ⅱ
Ⅱ
5. Trends in electricity consumption
Quarter2009p 2010p
1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 Annual 1/4 April January - April
Residential 14.9 13.8 14.5 14.4 57.6 15.7 5.0 20.7
(1.9) (3.2) (0.2) (4.5) (2.4) (5.3) (5.6) (5.4)
Commercial 39.4 31.7 33.6 34.3 139.1 42.7 12.6 55.3
(1.7) (5.2) (3.5) (4.8) (3.7) (8.2) (10.4) (8.7)
Industrial 45.9 48.5 50.9 52.5 197.7 54.1 18.4 72.5
(-6.6) (-0.4) (3.0) (10.7) (1.6) (17.8) (12.5) (16.4)
Total 100.3 94.0 99.0 101.2 394.5 112.5 36.0 148.5
(-2.3) (2.0) (2.8) (7.7) (2.4) (12.2) (10.8) (11.9)
Ⅱ
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Residential Commercial Industry Total
6. Trends in LNG and town gas consumption
Category2009p 2010p
1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 Annual 1/4 April January-April
Town gas5,738(-5.4)
2,671(0.1)
2,185(0.6)
4,915(7.3)
15,509(0.1)
6,637(15.7)
1,488(26.1)
8,222(17.9)
Power generation
2,410(-37.5)
1,670(-34.5)
2,065(-15.9)
2,998(2.8)
9,143(-22.4)
3,795(57.5)
1,165(92.2)
4,960(64.4)
LNG8,206(-18.0)
4,405(-15.5)
4,293(-7.7)
7,969(5.7)
24,873(-9.4)
10,528(28.3)
2,653(48.6)
13,181(31.9)
Ⅱ
Category2009p 2010p
1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 Annual January February March 1/4
Residential4,150(-4.5)
1,568(0.8)
585(5.7)
2,574(7.4)
8,877(0.3)
1,768(8.5)
1,504(10.0)
1,209(4.8)
4,480(8.0)
Commercial1,227(-5.3)
623(3.5)
640(-0.4)
913(5.8)
3,404(0.01)
535(8.8)
422(7.7)
365(6.5)
1,322(7.8)
Industrial1,447(-6.4)
1,238(-2.5)
1,271(-4.3)
1,626(10.1)
5,585(-0.7)
708(47.0)
605(30.0)
649(29.7)
1,961(35.5)
Town gas6,928(-4.6)
3,580(0.5)
2,660(-0.7)
5,269(6.0)
18,439(-1.6)
3,077(16.1)
2,582(14.7)
2,286(12.8)
7,945(14.7)
3) According to the economic statistics system of the Bank of Korea, the industrial production index in the manufacturing sector was 101.7 in the first quarter of 2009, but went up to 129 in the first quarter of 2010.
-10.00
-5.00
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Residential Commercial Industry
Ⅱ
7. Trends in coal and other energy consumption
Category2009p 2010p
1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 Annual 1/4 April January-April
Anthracite2,572(-0.6)
1,870(-22.4)
2,590(18.2)
2,744(-4.2)
9,777(-4.3)
2,541(-1.2)
919(33.5)
3,460(6.1)
Residential, commercial
618(-40.0)
206(66.1)
229(3.6)
888(-2.8)
1,941(-15.2)
563(-8.9)
126(21.2)
689(-4.6)
Industrial1,620(36.4)
1,348(-24.0)
2,008(33.7)
1,499(-0.1)
6,476(8.5)
1,759(8.6)
733(53.2)
2492(18.7)
Power generation
334(-37.3)
316(-38.2)
353(-24.6)
357(-20.3)
1,360(-30.6)
219(-34.4)
60(-43.4)
279(-36.6)
Bituminous coal22,378
(0.5)23,210
(2.2)26,592
(6.3)26,422(10.1)
98,602(4.9)
28,118(25.7)
8,205(11.9)
36,223(21.9)
Steel manufacturing
4,551(-21.6)
4,783(-18.8)
5,565(-5.8)
5,835(-2.2)
20,734(-12.0)
7,354(61.6)
1,963(33.5)
9,317(54.7)
Cement828
(-24.8)1,354(-4.2)
1,109(-15.0)
1,172(-17.3)
4,463(-14.8)
928(12.1)
247(-42.8)
1,175(-6.7)
Other industries610
(-7.2)527
(-7.4)552
(-1.8)625
(11.6)2,314(-3.1)
665(9.0)
205(15.2)
870(10.4)
Power generation
16,389(11.5)
16,546(11.5)
19,366(12.4)
18,790(17.3)
71,091(13.2)
19,171(17.0)
5,790(10.2)
24,961(15.3)
Coal24,950(-0.3)
25,080(-0.1)
29,182(7.3)
29,166(8.6)
108,378(4.0)
30,659(22.9)
9,124(13.7)
39,783(20.7)
Ⅱ
Quarter2009p 2010p
1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 Annual 1/4 April January-April
Thermal energy716
(-2.3)203(3.4)
89(5.3)
542(8.8)
1,551(2.6)
805(12.4)
147(30.7)
952(14.9)
Renewable energy/Other
energy
1,327(19.4)
1,378(17.7)
1,314(17.8)
1,608(19.2)
5,627(18.5)
1,376(3.7)
483(3.6)
1,859(3.7)
-30.0
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
Acthracite Bituminous Thermal energy Renewable and other energy
Ⅲ
1. Outlook on the international oil market
CategoryYear 2008
Year 2009 Year 2010
1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 Annual average 1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 Annual
average
OECD 47.6 46.5 44.4 45.0 45.9 45.5 46.0 45.0 45.2 45.8 45.5
North America 24.2 23.5 22.9 23.2 23.5 23.3 23.6 23.8 23.6 23.5 23.6
Europe 15.3 14.9 14.2 14.5 14.4 14.5 14.2 13.9 14.4 14.4 14.2
Asia Pacific 8.1 8.1 7.3 7.3 8.0 7.7 8.2 7.4 7.2 7.9 7.7
Non OECD 38.4 37.7 39.5 40.2 39.8 39.3 40.0 41.2 41.4 41.1 40.9
China 7.9 7.7 8.6 8.8 8.9 8.5 9.1 9.4 9.1 9.1 9.2
Asia* 9.6 9.9 10.0 9.8 10.1 9.9 10.1 10.2 10.0 10.3 10.2
World 86.0 84.3 83.9 85.1 85.7 84.8 86.0 86.2 86.5 87.0 86.4
Scenario2010
Base oil price High oil price Low oil price
Annual average 78.00 89.83 70.13
Ⅲ
CategoryYear 2009
Year 2010 Year 2011
1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 Annual average 1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 Annual
average
CGES Brent(D) 61.8 76.7 79.5 79.1 77.7 78.2
CERA
Dubai 62.25 76.53 77.13 49.83 74.00 74.37 77.50 79.17 82.00 83.67 80.58
Brent(D) 62.67 77.37 78.33 70.33 74.50 75.13 78.00 79.67 82.50 84.17 81.08
WTI 62.09 78.62 75.69 69.83 75.00 74.79 79.50 81.17 84.00 85.67 82.58
EIA WTI 61.66 78.64 78.01 78.00 80.33 78.75 81.00 82.00 83.00 84.00 82.50
PIRABrent 61.50 76.25 78.55 78.35 85.10 79.55
WTI 61.70 78.65 76.75 78.85 86.65 80.20
2. Domestic economic outlook and outlook conditions
Category2009 2010
Annual(p) 1/4p 2/4 3/4 4/4 Annual
KEEI
Growth rate 0.2 7.8 6.3 4.1 4.7 5.7
Consumer price increase rate 2.8 2.7 2.7 3.1 3.1 2.9
KDI
Growth rate 0.2 7.8 6.7 4.2 5.3 5.9
Consumer price increase rate 2.8 2.7 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.0
Unemployment rate 3.6 4.7 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.7
Current account (100 million dollars) 427 12 36 20 45 114
The Bank of Korea
Growth rate 0.2 7.5 5.8 4.0* 5.2
Consumer price increase rate 2.8 2.7 2.2 2.5 2.7 2.6
Unemployment rate 3.6 4.5 3.5 4.0 3.4 3.7
Current account (100 million dollars) 427 10 15 25 80 105
Ⅲ
Category 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010e
GDP 2.8 4.6 4.0 5.2 5.1 2.2 0.2 5.7
Consumer prices 3.5 3.6 2.8 2.2 2.5 4.7 2.8 2.9
Category January February March April May June July August September October November December
Average temperature -4.5 1.4 4.3 9.5 17.1 22.3 25.0 25.7 21.5 14.9 7.6 0.9
HDD 697.4 464.4 425.7 254.3 43.4 1.5 0.0 0.0 4.0 102.9 312.5 535.2
CDD 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.8 130.7 219.1 239.8 108.7 8.1 0.0 0.0
Ⅲ
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
700.0
800.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
HDD
CDD
3. Outlook on primary energy demand
Ⅲ
Category2009p 2010e
1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 Annual 1/4p 2/4 3/4 4/4 Annual
Coal 25.0 25.1 29.2 29.2 108.4 30.7 29.9 29.8 30.2 120.5
(Million ton) (-0.3) (-0.1) (7.3) (8.6) (4.0) (22.9) (19.1) (2.3) (3.4) (11.2)
Oil 199.1 192.5 183.7 203.2 778.5 198.8 199.1 192.8 211.7 802.4
(Million bbl) (-2.8) (5.3) (0.4) (6.9) (2.3) (-0.1) (3.4) (5.0) (4.2) (3.1)
LNG 8.2 4.4 4.3 8.0 24.9 10.5 4.8 4.7 7.9 27.9
(Million ton) (-18.0) (-16.2) (-7.7) (5.7) (-9.4) (28.3) (8.8) (10.3) (-1.0) (12.4)
Hydro 0.8 1.4 2.5 0.9 5.6 1.2 1.2 2.4 0.9 5.8
(TWh) (-12.3) (9.1) (4.7) (-4.2) (1.4) (43.6) (-12.0) (-3.2) (5.0) (2.8)
Nuclear power 36.6 37.3 37.2 36.6 147.8 36.0 36.4 40.9 39.7 153.0
(TWh) (-8.2) (3.1) (-0.8) (-1.9) (-2.1) (-1.6) (-2.5) (9.9) (8.5) (3.6)
Others 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.7 6.0 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.9 6.4
(Million TOE) (18.9) (17.4) (17.0) (18.5) (20.0) (3.7) (8.3) (8.3) (8.2) (7.2)
Primary energy 62.2 56.7 58.0 65.3 242.2 68.9 61.1 61.2 68.0 259.2
(Million TOE) (-5.8) (1.0) (1.7) (6.1) (0.7) (10.7) (7.8) (5.5) (4.1) (7.0)
22.5 23.2 23.7 24.0 24.2 24.2 24.5 25.2 27.4 28.3 29.6
53.2 51.9 50.4 48.9 46.9 45.7 44.9 44.6 41.6 42.2 40.7
10.1 10.8 11.4 11.5 13.2 13.7 14.1 14.7 14.8 13.3 14.0
0.6 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
12.5 12.5 12.6 13.3 13.1 14.2 14.1 13.0 13.5 13.1 12.7
1.1 1.2 1.4 1.5 2.0 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.5
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Coal Oil LNG Hydro Nuclear others
Ⅲ
Category 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Energy consumption increase rate (%) 3.7 2.1 1.3 1.8 0.7 7.0
Economic growth rate (%) 3.9 5.1 5.0 2.3 0.2 5.7
Energy basic unit (TOE/million won) 0.264 0.256 0.247 0.246 0.247 0.250
4. Outlook on final energy demand
Ⅲ
Category2009p 2010e
1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 Annual 1/4p 2/4 3/4 4/4 Annual
Industry 25.7 26.3 26.8 28.2 107.0 29.1 28.8 28.2 28.8 115.3
(Million TOE) (-5.4) (-0.3) (1.0) (7.0) (0.5) (13.4) (10.7) (6.7) (4.4) (8.7)
Transport 8.3 9.0 9.0 9.3 35.5 8.5 9.1 9.2 9.3 36.1
(Million TOE) (-4.5) (-0.4) (1.1) (0.8) (-0.7) (1.4) (1.8) (2.0) (0.8) (1.5)Residential/
commercial/public 13.9 8.0 6.9 11.5 40.3 15.0 8.6 7.3 11.9 42.7
(Million TOE) (-6.9) (2.7) (4.4) (5.5) (-0.3) (7.7) (7.4) (6.1) (3.2) (6.1)
Total 47.9 43.3 42.6 49.0 182.8 52.5 46.9 45.0 50.6 195.1
Million TOE (-5.6) (0.2) (1.3) (5.4) (0.1) (9.7) (8.3) (5.6) (3.4) (6.7)
Town gas 6.9 3.6 2.7 5.3 18.4 7.9 4.0 2.9 5.4 20.3
(Billion ) (-4.6) (0.5) (-0.7) (6.0) (-1.6) (14.7) (12.0) (10.6) (2.8) (10.2)
Oil 187.2 186.1 181.0 198.0 752.3 189.0 190.6 187.0 200.1 766.8
(Million bbl) (-4.9) (3.7) (1.0) (6.8) (1.5) (1.0) (2.4) (3.3) (1.0) (1.9)
Electricity 100.3 94.0 99.0 101.2 394.5 112.5 102.2 106.1 108.0 428.8
(TWh) (-2.3) (2) (2.7) (7.8) (2.4) (12.2) (8.7) (7.2) (6.7) (8.7)
Coal 8.2 8.2 9.5 10.0 35.9 11.3 10.8 10.3 10.7 43.1
(Million ton) (-15.9) (-15.9) (-0.4) (-3.8) (-8.9) (37.0) (31.4) (9.3) (6.7) (20.0)
Thermal and other 2,043 1,581 1,403 2,150 7,177 2,180 1,711 1,522 2,332 7,746
(Thousand TOE) (10.8) (15.7) (16.9) (16.3) (11.1) (6.7) (8.2) (8.5) (8.5) (7.9)
5. Outlook on petroleum product demand
Category2009 2010
1/4p 2/4p 3/4p 4/4p Annual 1/4p 2/4e 3/4e 4/4e Annual
Transport 60.3 64.7 65.0 66.9 256.9 60.9 65.9 66.2 67.2 260.2
(-4.3) (-0.4) (1.1) (1.2) (-0.5) (1.0) (1.7) (2.0) (0.4) (1.3)
Industry 107.4 110.1 106.2 111.4 435.1 107.7 112.6 111.2 113.5 444.9
(-2.8) (6.6) (0.1) (9.9) (3.3) (0.2) (2.3) (4.7) (1.8) (2.3)
- Fuel 20.4 21.8 20.1 21.7 84.0 20.1 21.2 21.0 21.5 83.8
(-7.6) (3.8) (-1.6) (4.8) (-0.2) (-1.6) (-2.5) (4.5) (-1.0) (-0.2)
- Raw material 87.0 88.3 86.1 89.7 351.1 87.6 91.4 90.2 91.9 361.1
(-1.6) (7.3) (0.5) (11.2) (4.2) (0.7) (3.5) (4.7) (2.5) (2.8)
Residential/commercial/public 19.5 11.3 9.9 19.7 60.4 20.5 12.1 9.6 19.5 61.7
(-16.3) (0.0) (10.9) (9.8) (-1.7) (5.0) (7.6) (-2.8) (-1.4) (2.1)
Transformation 11.9 6.4 2.6 5.2 26.1 9.8 8.5 5.8 11.6 35.6
(48.3) (92.3) (-29.3) (12.0) (32.5) (-17.5) (32.8) (118.8) (122.7) (36.5)
Oil 199.1 192.5 183.7 203.2 778.5 198.8 199.1 192.8 211.7 802.4
(-2.8) (5.3) (0.4) (6.9) (2.3) (-0.1) (3.4) (5.0) (4.2) (3.1)
Ⅲ
Category2009 2010
1/4p 2/4p 3/4p 4/4p Annual 1/4p 2/4e 3/4e 4/4e Annual
Gasoline 15.2 16.4 17.1 17.2 65.9 15.9 16.8 17.3 16.7 66.7
(2.1) (6.8) (6.2) (3.5) (4.7) (4.5) (1.9) (1.3) (-2.6) (1.2)
Diesel for transport 23.6 27.1 25.7 27.2 103.6 23.7 27.3 25.5 27.7 104.2
(-9.0) (-2.1) (0.1) (-1.2) (-3.0) (0.3) (1.0) (-0.8) (1.7) (0.5)
Kerosene+Diesel 16.9 10.3 8.8 18.6 54.6 18.0 10.3 8.7 17.5 54.7
(including for powergeneration) (-16.1) (5.5) (10.7) (6.8) (-1.2) (7.1) (0.4) (-0.6) (-5.9) (0.2)
Heavy oil 23.8 17.1 12.0 16.5 69.4 20.0 19.4 15.6 22.8 77.8
(including for powergeneration) (3.6) (8.6) (-16.2) (-2.5) (-0.8) (-16.2) (13.1) (30.0) (38.6) (12.0)
Naphtha 81.4 80.1 78.9 82.2 322.6 81.1 83.4 82.8 83.4 330.7
(-1.6) (5.8) (-0.5) (11.7) (3.6) (-0.3) (4.1) (4.9) (1.4) (2.5)
LPG 26.1 26.1 27.2 26.8 106.3 26.5 26.6 27.7 27.4 108.2
(including for power generation) (1.3) (3.9) (2.5) (10.0) (4.3) (1.3) (1.9) (1.8) (2.1) (1.8)
6. Outlook on electricity demand
Ⅲ
Category2009p 2010e
1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 Annual 1/4p 2/4 3/4 4/4 Annual
Residential 14.9 13.8 14.5 14.4 57.6 15.7 14.4 15.3 15.3 60.7
(1.9) (3.2) (0.2) (4.5) (2.4) (5.3) (4.6) (5.7) (5.9) (5.4)
Commercial 39.4 31.7 33.6 34.3 139.1 42.7 33.8 36.1 36.9 149.5
(1.7) (5.2) (3.5) (4.8) (3.7) (8.2) (6.5) (7.4) (7.5) (7.5)
Industrial 45.9 48.5 50.9 52.5 197.7 54.1 53.9 54.6 55.8 218.5
(-6.6) (-0.4) (3.0) (10.7) (1.6) (17.8) (11.3) (7.4) (6.4) (10.5)
Total 100.3 94.0 99.0 101.2 394.5 112.5 102.2 106.1 108.0 428.8
(-2.8) (5.3) (0.4) (5.8) (2.1) (12.2) (8.7) (7.2) (6.7) (8.7)
0.00
50.00
100.00
150.00
200.00
250.00
300.00
350.00
400.00
450.00
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Residential Commercial Industry Total
15.5 15.2 15.2 15.2 15.6 15.3 15.1 14.7 14.6 14.6 14.3
29.3 32.1 32.9 33.6 33.7 34.5 34.8 34.8 34.9 35.3 35.3
55.2 52.7 51.9 51.2 50.7 50.2 50.1 50.5 50.5 50.1 50.4
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Residential Commercial Industry
Ⅲ
7. Outlook on LNG and town gas demand
Category2009p 2010e
1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 Annual 1/4p 2/4 3/4 4/4 Annual
Town gas5,738(-5.4)
2,671(0.1)
2,185(0.6)
4,915(7.3)
15,509(0.1)
6,637(15.7)
2,727(2.1)
2,262(3.6)
4,859(-1.1)
16,486(6.3)
Power generation
2,410(-37.5)
1,670(-34.5)
2,065(-15.9)
2,998(2.8)
9,143(-22.4)
3,795(57.5)
2,053(22.9)
2,458(19.0)
3,015(0.6)
11,321(23.8)
LNG8,206(-18.0)
4,405(-15.5)
4,293(-7.7)
7,969(5.7)
24,873(-9.4)
10,528(28.3)
4,793(8.8)
4,735(10.3)
7,892(-1.0)
27,948(12.4)
Category2009p 2010e
1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 Annual 1/4p 2/4 3/4 4/4 Annual
Residential4,150(-4.5)
1,568(0.8)
584(5.7)
2,574(7.4)
8,877(0.3)
4,480(8.0)
1,677(7.0)
593(1.4)
2,509(-2.5)
9,260(4.3)
Commercial1,227(-5.3)
623(3.5)
640(-0.4)
913(5.8)
3,404(0.01)
1,322(7.8)
650(4.3)
691(7.9)
951(4.1)
3,615(6.2)
Industrial1,447(-6.4)
1,238(-2.5)
1,271(-4.3)
1,626(10.1)
5,585(-0.7)
1,961(35.5)
1,433(15.7)
1,397(9.9)
1,690(3.9)
6,482(16.1)
Town gas6,928(-4.6)
3,580(0.5)
2,660(-0.7)
5,269(6.0)
18,439(-1.6)
7,945(14.7)
4,012(12.0)
2,941(10.6)
5,414(2.8)
20,313(10.2)
Ⅲ
8. Outlook on coal and other energy demand
Category2009p 2010e
1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 Annual 1/4p 2/4 3/4 4/4 Annual
Anthracite2,572(-0.6)
1,870(-22.4)
2,590(18.2)
2,744(-4.2)
9,777(-4.3)
2,541(-1.2)
2,351(25.7)
2,332(-10.0)
2,779(1.3)
10,002(2.3)
Residential/commercial
618(-40.0)
206(66.1)
229(3.6)
888(-2.8)
1,941(-15.2)
563(-8.9)
202(-2.0)
211(-7.9)
836(-5.9)
1,811(-6.7)
Industrial1,620(36.4)
1,348(-24.0)
2,008(33.7)
1,499(-0.1)
6,476(8.5)
1,759(8.6)
1,832(35.9)
1,809(-9.9)
1,574(5.0))
6,974(7.7)
Power generation
334(-37.3)
316(-38.2)
353(-24.6)
357(-20.3)
1,360(-30.6)
219(-34.4)
317(0.3)
312(-11.6)
369(3.4)
1,217(-10.5)
Bituminous22,378(0.5)
23,210(2.2)
26,592(6.3)
26,422(10.1)
98,602(4.9)
28,118(25.7)
27,509(18.5)
27,518(3.5)
27,391(3.7)
110,536(12.1)
Steel4,551(-21.6)
4,783(-18.8)
5,565(-5.8)
5,835(-2.2)
20,734(-12.0)
7,354(61.6)
6,807(42.3)
6,631(19.2)
6,447(10.5)
27,239(31.4)
Cement828
(-24.8)1,354(-4.2)
1,109(-15.0)
1,172(-17.3)
4,463(-14.8)
928(12.1)
1,394(3.0)
1,116(0.6)
1,173(0.1)
4,611(3.3)
Other industries
610(-7.2)
527(-7.4)
552(-1.8)
625(11.6)
2,314(-3.1)
665(9.0)
566(7.4)
574(4.0)
656(5.0)
2,461(6.4)
Power generation
16,389(11.5)
16,546(11.5)
19,366(12.4)
18,790(17.3)
71,091(13.2)
19,171(17.0)
18,742(13.3)
19,197(-0.9)
19,115(1.7)
76,225(7.2)
Coal24,950(-0.3)
25,080(-0.1)
29,182(7.3)
29,166(8.6)
108,378(4.0)
30,659(22.9)
29,860(19.1)
29,850(2.3)
30,170(3.4)
120,539(11.2)
Category2009p 2010e
Annual 1/4p 2/4 3/4 4/4 Annual
Structural steel56,919(-11.6)
14,782(26.1)
15,852(15.5)
16,858(9.7)
16,784(4.2)
33,642(12.9)
Ⅲ
Quarter2009p 2010e
1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 Annual 1/4p 2/4 3/4 4/4 Annual
Thermal energy716
(-2.3)203(3.4)
89(5.3)
542(8.8)
1,551(2.6)
805(12.4)
215(5.7)
96(7.8)
586(8.1)
1,701(9.7)
Renewable energy/Other
energy
1,327(19.4)
1,378(17.7)
1,314(17.8)
1,608(19.2)
5,627(18.5)
1,376(3.7)
1,496(8.6)
1,426(8.5)
1,746(8.6)
6,044(7.4)
(Volume 12 No. 1)
