Steel Demand Outlook 2020- 21 - OECD
17
OECD Steel Committee Meeting March 19, 2021 1 Steel Demand Outlook 2020- 21
Transcript of Steel Demand Outlook 2020- 21 - OECD
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Antitrust
As worldsteel meetings are also meetings of competitors, antitrust and competition law concerns are paramount and certain areas of discussions must be totally avoided:
• No discussions on current or future pricing, pricing terms or any component of price
• No discussions on current or future production output or current or future capacity or capacity utilisation involving non-public information, or desired capacity or production output or
capacity utilisation levels, or coordinated capacity, capacity utilisation or production output increases or decreases
• No discussions on allocating geographical or product markets or customers or classes of customers
• No discussions on concerted actions involving costs (including concerted actions against suppliers)
• No discussions on future raw material prices, price terms or negotiating strategies
• No discussions regarding how to respond to price increases or other charges from suppliers or whether or how to pass on any costs to customers
• No discussion on contemplated trade actions or complaints about trade flows
• No discussion on non-public company-specific forward looking commercial strategies or plans
Visit worldsteel.org\About us for detailed antitrust guidelines.
3
Steel demand forecasts for 2020 and 2021 have been improving continuously since June for both developed and
developing economies.
Still, double-digit declines were seen in many of the developing and developed countries in 2020. Emerging
economies were more vulnerable to the pandemic crisis due to stricter confinement measures, weaker fiscal
capacities to support the economy
A powerful recovery from the lockdown in China contributed to only a minor contraction in global steel demand amid
the pandemic crisis
Steel demand in developing economies is expected to rebound more strongly than in developed economies and will
return to the pre-pandemic level in 2021. For developed economies, it will take longer
A stable recovery is expected to continue into 2022.
Uncertainty in the evolution of the pandemic and vaccination raises both upside and downside risks
Key observations
5
Steel demand, finished steel (SRO October 2020)
Regional overview
Africa Middle East Developed Asia Developing Asia excl. China
China World
2021 (Mt)
149.2 39.3 56.5 122.2 40.5 33.4 40.9 127.9 980.1 1 795.1198.7
*World growth rates based on adjusted Chinese growth rates
China
7
China saw an accelerating recovery from lockdown in 2020 thanks to
successful control of the virus, government stimulus, and strong exports
Despite the deep dive in Jan-Feb, all steel using sectors posted positive
growth in 2020 except for home appliances.
In particular, the construction sector drove steel demand in 2020.
Infrastructure will continue to support steel demand in 2021, while the
real estate sector might moderate
The Chinese government’s environmental push will exert significant
influence on China’s steel demand in coming years
* Growth rates based on Chinese steel using sectors dynamics
Source: worldsteel estimate
October 2020)
Mt %
2019 2020 2021 19/ 18 20/ 19 21/ 20 2021 as %
of 2007
World 1 766.7 1 725.1 1 795.1 3.4/ 1.3* -2.4 4.1 146.5
China 907.5 980.1 980.1 8.5/ 4.0* 8.0 0.0 234.2
Steel use growth by sector, % (y-o-y)
Steel demand, finished steel (SRO October 2020)
Developed economies vs developing economies
8
Mt %
Developed 393.4 336.7 363.5 -3.8 -14.4 7.9
Emerging & Developing ex China 465.8 408.3 451.6 0.8 -12.3 10.6
Developed economies in focus Steel demand, finished steel (SRO October 2020)
9
Mt %
2019 2020 2021 19/ 18 20/ 19 21/ 20 2021 as %
of 2007
World 1 766.7 1 725.1 1 795.1 3.4/ 1.3* -2.4 4.1 146.5
United States 97.7 82.3 87.6 -2.1 -15.8 6.6 80.9
Germany 35.0 29.7 33.7 -11.6 -15.3 13.4 78.8
Italy 25.0 19.6 22.7 -1.2 -21.5 15.6 63.1
Spain 13.2 10.9 12.4 -4.3 -18.0 14.2 50.6
Japan 63.2 50.8 54.9 -3.4 -19.6 8.1 67.6
South Korea 53.2 48.9 50.8 -0.9 -8.2 3.8 91.9
Developed Economies 393.4 336.7 363.5 -3.8 -14.4 7.9 76.7
* World growth rates based on adjusted Chinese growth rates
Most developed economies recorded a double digit contraction in steel demand in 2020.
A moderate recovery is expected in 2021-22
Emerging economies in focus Steel demand, finished steel (SRO October 2020)
10
Mt %
2019 2020 2021 19/ 18 20/ 19 21/ 20 2021 as %
of 2007
World 1 766.7 1 725.1 1 795.1 3.4/ 1.3* -2.4 4.1 146.5
China 907.5 980.1 980.1 8.5/ 4.0* 8.0 0.0 234.2
India 102.6 81.9 100.4 6.1 -20.2 22.7 195.1
Brazil 21.0 20.0 21.3 -1.1 -4.7 6.7 96.7
Russia 43.7 40.0 42.0 5.5 -8.5 5.0 104.0
Turkey 26.0 28.6 32.0 -15.4 10.0 11.9 134.6
MENA 65.9 54.8 58.4 -3.1 -16.8 6.7 107.5
ASEAN (5) 77.8 73.1 77.3 0.8 -6.0 5.8 191.5
Emerging & Developing Economies
Most sever impact seen in India and MENA
Recovery in 2022-21 to
Steel Using Sectors Strong recovery in the automotive sector, following a double digit
decline in 2020. EV transition to strengthen
Severe contraction in construction activities in developing economies in
2020. Structural changes in sub-sectors expected
Source: IHS Markit
-20.0 -15.0 -10.0 -5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0
L&C America
%
L&C America
%
GFC vs COVID-19 impact compared
The COVID-19 Crisis leaves less impact on steel demand than GFC
12
-3.2
-24.3
-17.2
-4.0
-1.3
-6.3
Source: IHSMarkit, worldsteel
Evolution of regional shares in steel demand Steel demand, finished steel (SRO October 2020)
13
77.7% 80.5%
79.8%
59.2% 54.8% 52.3% 48.2% 47.3% 41.9% 41.7% 38.7% 36.3% 25.9% 28.3% 27.9% 26.8% 25.1% 26.5% 26.3% 25.9% 24.8% 24.0% 22.3% 19.5% 20.2%
16.6%
20.7%
23.6%
27.5%
28.6%
33.5%
33.3%
34.2%
36.3%
47.8%
44.7%
45.2%
45.7%
48.0%
45.8%
44.6%
44.8%
47.4%
49.0%
51.4%
56.8%
54.6%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Top 10 countries in 2016 and 2021
14
Japan 62.2 Japan 54.9
Germany 40.5 Russia 42.0
Russia 38.7 Germany 33.7
Turkey 34.1 Turkey 32.0
Mexico 25.5 Vietnam 25.9
Italy 23.7 Mexico 22.9
China 54.6%
India 5.6%
Steel demand, finished steel (SRO October 2020)
Top 10 countries account for 79.7% of world steel demand in 2021
Expected Revisions (SRO October 2020 vs April 2021)
15
2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 22/21
World 1 725.1 1 795.1 ! -2.4 4.1
EU (28) 134.3 149.0 -15.2 11.0
Other Europe 35.2 39.3 4.0 11.9
CIS 53.6 56.5 -9.0 5.5
USMCA 114.6 122.2 -15.3 6.7
C&S America 37.4 40.5 -10.1 8.2
Africa 30.6 33.4 -16.0 9.2
Middle East 38.5 40.9 -19.5 6.2
Asia & Oceania 1 280.9 1 313.1 2.1 2.5
China 980.1 980.1 8.0 0.0
Developing Asia
Presenter
not distribute it to third parties.
2
Antitrust
As worldsteel meetings are also meetings of competitors, antitrust and competition law concerns are paramount and certain areas of discussions must be totally avoided:
• No discussions on current or future pricing, pricing terms or any component of price
• No discussions on current or future production output or current or future capacity or capacity utilisation involving non-public information, or desired capacity or production output or
capacity utilisation levels, or coordinated capacity, capacity utilisation or production output increases or decreases
• No discussions on allocating geographical or product markets or customers or classes of customers
• No discussions on concerted actions involving costs (including concerted actions against suppliers)
• No discussions on future raw material prices, price terms or negotiating strategies
• No discussions regarding how to respond to price increases or other charges from suppliers or whether or how to pass on any costs to customers
• No discussion on contemplated trade actions or complaints about trade flows
• No discussion on non-public company-specific forward looking commercial strategies or plans
Visit worldsteel.org\About us for detailed antitrust guidelines.
3
Steel demand forecasts for 2020 and 2021 have been improving continuously since June for both developed and
developing economies.
Still, double-digit declines were seen in many of the developing and developed countries in 2020. Emerging
economies were more vulnerable to the pandemic crisis due to stricter confinement measures, weaker fiscal
capacities to support the economy
A powerful recovery from the lockdown in China contributed to only a minor contraction in global steel demand amid
the pandemic crisis
Steel demand in developing economies is expected to rebound more strongly than in developed economies and will
return to the pre-pandemic level in 2021. For developed economies, it will take longer
A stable recovery is expected to continue into 2022.
Uncertainty in the evolution of the pandemic and vaccination raises both upside and downside risks
Key observations
5
Steel demand, finished steel (SRO October 2020)
Regional overview
Africa Middle East Developed Asia Developing Asia excl. China
China World
2021 (Mt)
149.2 39.3 56.5 122.2 40.5 33.4 40.9 127.9 980.1 1 795.1198.7
*World growth rates based on adjusted Chinese growth rates
China
7
China saw an accelerating recovery from lockdown in 2020 thanks to
successful control of the virus, government stimulus, and strong exports
Despite the deep dive in Jan-Feb, all steel using sectors posted positive
growth in 2020 except for home appliances.
In particular, the construction sector drove steel demand in 2020.
Infrastructure will continue to support steel demand in 2021, while the
real estate sector might moderate
The Chinese government’s environmental push will exert significant
influence on China’s steel demand in coming years
* Growth rates based on Chinese steel using sectors dynamics
Source: worldsteel estimate
October 2020)
Mt %
2019 2020 2021 19/ 18 20/ 19 21/ 20 2021 as %
of 2007
World 1 766.7 1 725.1 1 795.1 3.4/ 1.3* -2.4 4.1 146.5
China 907.5 980.1 980.1 8.5/ 4.0* 8.0 0.0 234.2
Steel use growth by sector, % (y-o-y)
Steel demand, finished steel (SRO October 2020)
Developed economies vs developing economies
8
Mt %
Developed 393.4 336.7 363.5 -3.8 -14.4 7.9
Emerging & Developing ex China 465.8 408.3 451.6 0.8 -12.3 10.6
Developed economies in focus Steel demand, finished steel (SRO October 2020)
9
Mt %
2019 2020 2021 19/ 18 20/ 19 21/ 20 2021 as %
of 2007
World 1 766.7 1 725.1 1 795.1 3.4/ 1.3* -2.4 4.1 146.5
United States 97.7 82.3 87.6 -2.1 -15.8 6.6 80.9
Germany 35.0 29.7 33.7 -11.6 -15.3 13.4 78.8
Italy 25.0 19.6 22.7 -1.2 -21.5 15.6 63.1
Spain 13.2 10.9 12.4 -4.3 -18.0 14.2 50.6
Japan 63.2 50.8 54.9 -3.4 -19.6 8.1 67.6
South Korea 53.2 48.9 50.8 -0.9 -8.2 3.8 91.9
Developed Economies 393.4 336.7 363.5 -3.8 -14.4 7.9 76.7
* World growth rates based on adjusted Chinese growth rates
Most developed economies recorded a double digit contraction in steel demand in 2020.
A moderate recovery is expected in 2021-22
Emerging economies in focus Steel demand, finished steel (SRO October 2020)
10
Mt %
2019 2020 2021 19/ 18 20/ 19 21/ 20 2021 as %
of 2007
World 1 766.7 1 725.1 1 795.1 3.4/ 1.3* -2.4 4.1 146.5
China 907.5 980.1 980.1 8.5/ 4.0* 8.0 0.0 234.2
India 102.6 81.9 100.4 6.1 -20.2 22.7 195.1
Brazil 21.0 20.0 21.3 -1.1 -4.7 6.7 96.7
Russia 43.7 40.0 42.0 5.5 -8.5 5.0 104.0
Turkey 26.0 28.6 32.0 -15.4 10.0 11.9 134.6
MENA 65.9 54.8 58.4 -3.1 -16.8 6.7 107.5
ASEAN (5) 77.8 73.1 77.3 0.8 -6.0 5.8 191.5
Emerging & Developing Economies
Most sever impact seen in India and MENA
Recovery in 2022-21 to
Steel Using Sectors Strong recovery in the automotive sector, following a double digit
decline in 2020. EV transition to strengthen
Severe contraction in construction activities in developing economies in
2020. Structural changes in sub-sectors expected
Source: IHS Markit
-20.0 -15.0 -10.0 -5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0
L&C America
%
L&C America
%
GFC vs COVID-19 impact compared
The COVID-19 Crisis leaves less impact on steel demand than GFC
12
-3.2
-24.3
-17.2
-4.0
-1.3
-6.3
Source: IHSMarkit, worldsteel
Evolution of regional shares in steel demand Steel demand, finished steel (SRO October 2020)
13
77.7% 80.5%
79.8%
59.2% 54.8% 52.3% 48.2% 47.3% 41.9% 41.7% 38.7% 36.3% 25.9% 28.3% 27.9% 26.8% 25.1% 26.5% 26.3% 25.9% 24.8% 24.0% 22.3% 19.5% 20.2%
16.6%
20.7%
23.6%
27.5%
28.6%
33.5%
33.3%
34.2%
36.3%
47.8%
44.7%
45.2%
45.7%
48.0%
45.8%
44.6%
44.8%
47.4%
49.0%
51.4%
56.8%
54.6%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Top 10 countries in 2016 and 2021
14
Japan 62.2 Japan 54.9
Germany 40.5 Russia 42.0
Russia 38.7 Germany 33.7
Turkey 34.1 Turkey 32.0
Mexico 25.5 Vietnam 25.9
Italy 23.7 Mexico 22.9
China 54.6%
India 5.6%
Steel demand, finished steel (SRO October 2020)
Top 10 countries account for 79.7% of world steel demand in 2021
Expected Revisions (SRO October 2020 vs April 2021)
15
2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 22/21
World 1 725.1 1 795.1 ! -2.4 4.1
EU (28) 134.3 149.0 -15.2 11.0
Other Europe 35.2 39.3 4.0 11.9
CIS 53.6 56.5 -9.0 5.5
USMCA 114.6 122.2 -15.3 6.7
C&S America 37.4 40.5 -10.1 8.2
Africa 30.6 33.4 -16.0 9.2
Middle East 38.5 40.9 -19.5 6.2
Asia & Oceania 1 280.9 1 313.1 2.1 2.5
China 980.1 980.1 8.0 0.0
Developing Asia
Presenter
